Fund Forum Lugano 25 Novembre 2013

Transcription

1 Zest Asset Management Markets Strategy & Asset Allocation by Maurizio Novelli CIO & Global Strategist Zest AM Fund Forum Lugano 25 Novembre 2013

2 Market Expectations & Consensus View Financial Strategy

3 Global Outlook Growth Expectations

4 Global Outlook - Monetary Stimulus & Growth Expectations

5 MSCI World Financial Strategy

6 Global Outlook Earnings Expectations Financial Strategy

7 US Interest Rate 10 y

8 Expectations & Reality Financial Strategy

9 Global Outlook Global Growth

10 Global Outlook Global Trade

11 Global Outlook Global Trade & Global Growth

12 Global Outlook Global Credit

13 QE, Global Monetary Stimulus and Economic Growth Financial Strategy

14 US Economic Growth & QE

15 QE Net or Gross and Net Effect

16 QE & Money Multipliers Liquidity Trap Risks on The Rise

17 QE & Money Multipliers Liquidity Trap Risks on The Rise

18 Debt Growth & GDP Growth Correlation

19 Global Growth & The Big 5 Drivers Financial Strategy

20 The Global Credit Cycle Financial Strategy

21 The Global Real Estate Boom

22 The Debt Cycle

23 The China Cycle

24 The Global Mining Investments

25 Wealth Effect and Consumptions The American Case

26 US The Wealth Effect

27 US The Wealth Effect

28 US The Wealth Effect Financial Strategy

29 US The Wealth Effect

30 Where the global comsumptions are weak Financial Strategy

31 The Quest for New Drivers

32 The Quest for New Drivers

33 Long Term Implications

34 Global Outlook A Low Growth Environment

35 Global Outlook A Low Growth Environment

36 Global Outlook Just an Inventory Cycle

37 Interest Rates Outlook US 10y Real Yeld

38 USD Index

39 USD JPY

40 EUR USD

41 EM Flows & Valuations Financial Strategy

42 CHINA Financial Strategy

43 Hong Kong

44 EM Consumer Discretionary

45 EM Consumer Discretionary Index

46 Pharma & Biotech Global Index

47 The conventional view serves to protect us from the painful job of thinking John Kenneth Galbraith

48 Zest Asset Management Sicav 12, Rue E. Ruppert L 2453 Luxembourg Luxemburg

49 This document was produced by and the opinions expressed are those of Zest Asset Management Sicav as of the date of writing and are subject to change. It has been prepared solely for information purposes and for the use of the recipient. It does not constitute an offer or an invitation by or on behalf of Zest Asset Management Sicav to any person to buy or sell any security. Any reference to past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future. The information and analysis contained in this publication have been compiled or arrived from sources believed to be reliable but Zest Asset Management Sicav does not make any representation as to their accuracy or completeness and does not accept liability for any loss arising from the use hereof. This document may not be reproduced either in whole, or in part, without the written permission of Zest Asset Management Sicav. La presente pubblicazione è stata redatta da Zest Asset Management Sicav. Le informazioni qui contenute sono state ricavate da fonti ritenute affidabili, ma non sono necessariamente complete, e l accuratezza delle stesse non può essere in alcun modo garantita. La presente pubblicazione viene a Voi fornita per meri fini di informazione ed illustrazione, ed a titolo meramente indicativo, non costituendo pertanto la stessa in alcun modo una proposta di conclusione di contratto o una sollecitazione all acquisto o alla vendita di qualsiasi strumento finanziario. Il documento può essere riprodotto in tutto o in parte solo citando il nome Zest Asset Management Sicav.