Economic Outlook in the Aftermath of the Debt Crisis

Transcription

1 Economic Outlook in the Aftermath of the Debt Crisis Prof. Dr. Klaus W. Wellershoff November 26th, 213

2 Act I 2

3 World: GDP Growth Rates 12 9 Change YoY in percent Advanced economies BRIC

4 Trend Growth Switzerland Actual GDP and trend Switzerland USA 1 1 Logarithmic scale Trend Real GDP

5 Trend Growth USA Actual GDP and trend 12 USA 1 Logarithmic scale 8 Trend Real GDP

6 Trend Growth Eurozone Actual GDP and trend Eurozone USA 1 1 Logarithmic scale Trend Real GDP

7 Outputgap & Real Estate Prices Current outputgaps and house price-to-income ratios 2 Deutschland Germany Schweiz Switzerland Japan Produktionslücke Outputgap in percent in Prozent USA Italien Italy Frankreich France 8 Spanien Spain Grossbritannien UK Hauspreis/Einkommensquotient House price-to-income ratio in in Quelle: OECD, Wellershoff & Partners 7

8 House Prices over Income Major economies var6 House Hauspreis price-to-income / Einkommensindex index (historical (Durchschnitt average = 1) = 1) 16 OECD USA 14 Grossbritannien United Kingdom Spanien Spain Schweiz Switzerland

9 Outputgap and Fiscal Policy 6 Change Veränderung in outputgap der in Produktionslücke percent (29-212) Change of the Veränderung structural des deficit Strukturdefizits in percent (29-212) Quelle: OECD, Wellershoff & Partners 9

10 Structural Deficit 213 Major economies Structural deficit in percent of GDP 213 Strukturdefizit in % vom BIP Japan United Grossbritannien Kingdom USA Spanien Spain Frankreich France Österreich Austria Euro Eurozone Zone Deutschland Germany Italien Italy Switzerland Schweiz 1

11 Act II 11

12 Outputgap 213 Major economies Germany Japan Switzerland USA Eurozone France Italy UK

13 World: Trade & Global Business Sentiment 2 15 Change YoY in percent World trade Global business sentiment (fitted values)

14 Public Debt Major economies 12 Brutto Gross Staatsverschuldung public debt in percent in Prozent of GDP vom BIP United Grossbritannien Kingdom USA Eurozone

15 Central Banks Balance Sheets Volumes in local currencies June 26 = Fed ECB BoJ BoE SNB Fed current QE path BoJcurrent QE path

16 Currency War? Percent USD Trade weighted deviation from PPP Percent GBP EUR 2 CHF Percent 1 1 Percent JPY 2 CNY Percent 2 2 Percent

17 Inflation in Advanced Economies USA Change Prozent YoY in percent US Outputgap Produktionslücke US Deviation Abweichung from von Trend Trendinflation Inflation United Kingdom Spain Switzerland 15 World trade Global business sentiment (fitted values) var

18 Inflation in Emerging Markets & Advanced Economies 1 8 Change YoY in percent Advanced economies BRIC (rhs)

19 Inflation Switzerland Expected and actual inflation Change Prozent YoY in J/J percent Inflation Inflationserwartungen Expected United Kingdom Spain Switzerland 1 Advanced economies BRIC (rhs) var6 19

20 Increasing Interest Rates Interest Rates and Spreads of European Bonds 1 8 Spread Spain Germany Spread Italy Germany Spain Italy France Germany Interest Rates in Percent

21 Act III 21

22 Monthly Perspectives 12 Ausgaben pro Jahr seit 21 Weltwirtschafts- und Finanzmarktausblick Wellershoff & Partners AG 22

23 Kontakt Wellershoff & Partners Ltd. Zürichbergstrasse Zürich T // F info@wellershoff.ch //

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