Session 5b Aging Asia 5b.1) Aging Asia: Asset Rich, Income Poor? Key risks to retirement income security and investment implications

Transcription

1 Session 5b Aging Asia 5b.1) Aging Asia: Asset Rich, Income Poor? Key risks to retirement income security and investment implications Michael Dommermuth

2 26/06/2014 Sourced: Manulife Asset Management 1 Aging Asia: Asset Rich, Income Poor? Key risks to retirement income security and investment implications 26/06/2014 Sourced: Manulife Asset Management 2 1

3 Biography Michael Dommermuth President, International Asset Management Located in Hong Kong, Michael is President, International Asset Management, and is a member of the firm s Executive Committee and of Manulife Financial's Asia Division Executive Committee. He joined Manulife Financial in Michael oversees Manulife Asset Management s investment activities outside of North America. His responsibilities include managing the firm's rapidly growing assets under management in these regions and ensuring that its investments complement the regulatory landscape. He is also responsible for establishing and executing business strategy, business development, regulatory and business risk management, client relationship management and local operational and managerial support. Prior to his current appointment, Michael was President of Manulife Asset Management (Asia). Previous to this, he headed Manulife Financial's investment operations in Asia (ex-hong Kong). Before relocating to Asia, he was based in Boston, where he led the firm s institutional spread-based business product development efforts from 2001 to Prior to joining Manulife Financial in 2001, Michael was based in New York, London and Sydney as the head of various units of a global rating agency that covered leveraged finance and asset-backed securities. Michael holds a Bachelor of Science in mathematics and management science from Carnegie Mellon University, Pennsylvania, USA. Joined Firm: 2001 Began Career: 1986 Sourced: Manulife Asset Management 3 Manulife Asset Management s Aging Asia Series A series of research reports that look at the economic and financial implications of the rapid aging of Asian populations, complemented by companion articles With our long history in Asia we can offer unique insight into this trend and its implications. NEW Sourced: Manulife Asset Management 4 2

4 Aging is a pan-asia phenomenon: South Asia is joining North Asia on this North Asia: Percentage of populations aged 65+ South Asia: Percentages of populations aged 65+ * Medium variant projections. Source: Manulife Asset Management, United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. Word Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision. Taiwan data: Taiwan Council for Economic Planning and Development, Taiwan Statistical Data Book 2012, * Medium variant projections. Source: Manulife Asset Management; Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. Sourced: Manulife Asset Management 5 Longevity Risk Sourced: Manulife Asset Management 6 3

5 Longevity risk: A pressing concern in Asia The three key determinants of retirement duration: 1 Retirement age 2 Life expectancy 3 Marital status Retirement ages rising slower than life expectancy Asia life expectancy rising more rapidly than world average Single versus joint retirement Sourced: Manulife Asset Management 7 Key results from the Manulife Asset Management s Asia Retirement Duration Analysis Married couples can expect to spend an average of 50-75% of their aggregate retirement duration together Couples in Asia face average retirement duration of 26 years. Married Asia couples better add seven to 10 years to retirement duration assumptions to account for longest surviving partner Vietnam Thailand Japan Indonesia Malaysia Hong Kong Years Philippines Singapore China Taiwan Sourced: Manulife Asset Management 8 4

6 Sensitivity to marital status Gap between single male and married couple retirement longevity Source: Manulife Asset Management based on Asia Retirement Duration Model Sourced: Manulife Asset Management 9 Expectation vs. reality: Retirement duration is largely underestimated across Asia Retirement duration expectations for married couples versus Manulife Asset Management s projections Source: Manulife Asset Management s ARDM, Manulife Investor Sentiment Survey. Sourced: Manulife Asset Management 10 5

7 Joint retirement duration is a key consideration for retirement planning Expected joint retirement duration for married couples in Asia (years) Source: Manulife Asset Management based on Asia Retirement Duration Model Sourced: Manulife Asset Management 11 Retirement Income at Risk Sourced: Manulife Asset Management 12 6

8 Traditional forms of retirement income at risk Manulife Asset Management s ongoing series of research reports has identified five key components of retirement income security. Manulife Asset Management s Income security resources model Government social spending Pension benefits Familial support Salary and wages Household wealth The radar chart that illustrates how significant the levels of these five income resources are in each country and territory relative to its peers in the previous study. The chart does not indicate the actual level of income that is generated by a given resource. Sourced: Manulife Asset Management 13 Reliance on familial support brings vulnerabilities North Asia: Familial support (%) South Asia: Familial support (%) Source: Manulife s Asia Investor Sentiment Index, Q Sourced: Manulife Asset Management 14 7

9 Working in retirement can help but subject to social and personal factors North Asia: Elderly labour force participation: expectations vs. reality South Asia: Elderly labour force participation: expectations vs. reality Source: Manulife Investment Sentiment Index, Q4 2013; International Labour Organisation, Key Indicators of the Labour Market (KILM) 8th edition, Sourced: Manulife Asset Management 15 Low investment income in Asia is largely a result of how household wealth is deployed US: households build portfolios that lead to substantial income Asia: skewed towards property and bank deposits Financial wealth to total household wealth Composition of household financial assets Source: Korea from the Credit Suisse Global Wealth Databook, Singapore, US and Taiwan from central bank flow of funds household balance sheet statistics, Hong Kong statistics are Manulife estimates based upon Hong Kong property valuations and housing stock together with central bank data, and Japan is derived from Japan Statistics Bureau. Data is for 2011, except for Taiwan, which is 2010 data. Source: Manulife Asset Management calculations derived from flow of funds and household balance sheet data from the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan), OECD, Bank of Korea, Statistics Singapore, Hong Kong Investment Funds Association, Hong Kong Office of Commissioner of Insurance, Cerulli, Hong Kong Monetary Authority and Japan Statistics Bureau. Data is for 2011, except for Korea pension and insurance and Taiwan, which is 2010 data. Sourced: Manulife Asset Management 16 8

10 Economic Implications Sourced: Manulife Asset Management 17 Consumption often remains the same or higher in retirement Japan income & consumption Taiwan income & consumption Source: National Transfer Accounts. Consumption Labor income Sourced: Manulife Asset Management 18 9

11 Asian economies are at different stages of benefiting from demographic dividends Source: UN Population Projections, National Statistics Offices & Global Insight. Sourced: Manulife Asset Management 19 Projected economic growth Share of Asia economic activity North Asia vs. South Asia, North Asia South Asia Sourced: Manulife Asset Management 20 10

12 Conclusion Aging is a pan-regional phenomenon. Retirement duration and longevity risk are underestimated. Aging is shifting the balance of economic activities in Asia. Each country are faced with unique challenges and it takes local intelligence to appreciate the circumstances and the investment implications. A large pool of liquidity in Asian households unleash and fuel the local, regional and global security markets. The capital markets of developing economies in Asia will have to be opened up and grown in a much more rapid pace by the authorities. Both the public and private sectors are looking for income-oriented investment solutions to complement social policies. Sourced: Manulife Asset Management 21 For more, visit: Sourced: Manulife Asset Management 22 11

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