FOREX CURRENCY FORECAST ( )

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1 th Avenue, Suite 30 Markham Ontario, Canada, L3R 0B Fax: FOREX CURRENCY FORECAST ( ) FOREX MAJORS (USD) SPOT Q1a Q2f Q3f Q4f Q1f Q2f Q3f Q4f Canadian Dollar USD/CAD Euro EUR/USD British Pound GBP/USD Japanese Yen USD/JPY Swiss Franc USD/CHF Australian Dollar AUD/USD New Zealand Dollar NZD/USD OTHER PAIRS (USD) SPOT Q1f Q2f Q3f Q4f Q1f Q2f Q3f Q4f Chinese Renminbi CNY/USD Indian Rupee INR/USD South African Rand ZAR/USD Polish Zloty PLN/USD Kenya Shilling KES/USD CANADIAN CROSSES SPOT Q1f Q2f Q3f Q4f Q1f Q2f Q3f Q4f Euro EUR/CAD British Pound GBP/CAD Japanese Yen CAD/JPY Swiss Franc CAD/CHF Austalian Dollar AUD/CAD New Zealand Dollar NZD/CAD Chinese Renminbi CNY/CAD Indian Rupee INR/CAD South African Rand ZAR/CAD Polish Zloty PLN/CAD Kenya Shilling KES/CAD

2 th Avenue, Suite 30 Markham Ontario, Canada, L3R 0B Fax: APRIL CURRENCY HIGHLIGHTS USD After 12 months of consecutive +200K job prints, March was a disappointment with a non-farms payroll job print of only +12K, enough to take the wind out of the remarkable USD bull run. The greenback s ascent has been interrupted with softer than expected economic data and further reinforced with the notion of a Fed hike still months away. However, we expect the U.S economy to bounce back in the coming months and call for a Fed hike in September. Our bullish view of the USD continues to remain intact. CAD Sentiment continues to suggest that the CAD will weaken even further as we move through The aftershock of oil s collapse has not completely cleared and we expect data in the coming months to accentuate the negative impact of low oil on the Canadian economy. Growth and interest rate differentials will weigh on the CAD and though the pace of weakness is likely to slow, we continue to expect fresh lows in the coming months. We look for a decisive move toward the EUR The euro continues to remain under pressure with further weakness a strong possibility. There has been a positive shift in Eurozone fundamentals and recent data releases have come in better than expected benefiting from ECB stimulus and low oil prices. Monetary policy divergence will likely weigh on the EUR in the medium term as the Fed begins to raise interest rates. However, we see the euro stabilize toward the latter part of the year and call for a year-end target of GBP The pound continues to underperform against the USD and is likely to continue declining in the near term. Disinflationary pressures that have creeped into the economy, political uncertainty with the fast approaching May 7th elections and a preference for the USD have all contributed to consensus that the Bank of England will push out rate hikes well into 201. We expect the pound to weaken in the near term but stabilize toward the latter part of We hold a year-end target of 1.55.

3 th Avenue, Suite 30 Markham Ontario, Canada, L3R 0B Fax: APRIL US DOLLAR HIGHLIGHTS April f 201f Spot Q1a Q2f Q3f Q4f Q1f Q2f Q3f Q4f USD/CAD Consensus Forecast EUR/USD Consensus Forecast GBP/USD Consensus Forecast U.S. DOLLAR COMMENT: After 12 months of consecutive +200K job gains, March was a disappointment with US non-farm payrolls coming in at very weak +12K. The US dollar index took a breather in March and interrupted a remarkable USD bull run. Softer than expected economic data was further reinforced by a Fed that suggested that rate hikes would now be pushed to September. The US economy slowed in Q weighed down by lower capital related expenditures and a strong US dollar. Activity however is expected to bounce back in the second quarter fuelled by consumer confidence and spending (benefitting from low oil prices), rising household net-worth and improving labour market conditions regardless of the disappointing March employment print. Overall, broader unemployment measures have improved with the unemployment rate near a seven year low of 5.5% and earnings showing a meaningful 0.3% increase in March. US Q1 GDP is forecasted to grow just below 2% while core inflation continues to hover around 1.7%. The near term underpinnings for USD strength remain in place and are likely to continue. Overall, macro-economic data suggests that the US economy will continue to expand and GDP should average 2.5 percent through From a monetary perspective we see the Fed on a path to hike interest rates in Q3. The March FOMC statement and Yellen s comments thereafter suggest that the Fed has downgraded the pace of economic growth and has implied that it intends to be cautious in the normalization of rates. We expect the Fed to raise interest rates before the end of the year which should maintain a bid tone on the US dollar. Q CURRENCY RETURNS 0% CAD EUR GBP -2% -4% -% -8% -10% -12% USD FOMC Minutes APR 08 USD Producer Price Inflation APR 14 USD Retail Sales APR 14 USD Building Permits APR 1 USD Consumer Price Inflation APR 17

4 th Avenue, Suite 30 Markham Ontario, Canada, L3R 0B Fax: USD/CAD APRIL 2015 HIGHLIGHTS April f 201f USD/CAD Spot Q1a Q2f Q3f Q4f Q1f Q2f Q3f Q4f Forecast Consensus Forecast USD/CAD CURRENCY TREND - MARCH 2015 HIGHLIGHTS: CAD Ivey PMI APR 0 CAD Employment Change APR 10 CAD Interest Rate Decision APR 15 CAD Core Consumer Price Inflation APR 17 CAD Retail Sales APR 17 At the end of the first quarter the CAD has weakened 8% against the USD as a result of three major themes: a collapse in oil, BoC monetary policy and broad based USD strength. We continue to see the CAD weaken further though not at an accelerated pace. The trajectory of the CAD has been closely tied to oil prices. North American inventories continue to remain bloated and a new Iran deal that is likely to add more oil in an already oversupplied market will weigh on the price of oil and the CAD in the near term. The economic backdrop in Canada remains soft with GDP likely to advance less than 2% in 2015 while inflationary pressures are forecast to remain low. Taken together the BoC will lag the Fed on interest rate hikes and accordingly weigh on the CAD. We call for a test of 1.30 in the coming months. MARKET SENTIMENT: Bearish Bullish

5 th Avenue, Suite 30 Markham Ontario, Canada, L3R 0B Fax: EUR/USD APRIL 2015 HIGHLIGHTS April f 201f EUR/USD Spot Q1a Q2f Q3f Q4f Q1f Q2f Q3f Q4f Forecast Consensus Forecast EUR/USD CURRENCY TREND - MARCH 2015 HIGHLIGHTS: EUR Interest Rate Decision APR 15 EUR Consumer Price Inflation APR 17 EUR German Economic Sentiment APR 21 EUR German Manufacturing PMI APR 23 USD German Business Climate APR 24 The euro has dropped 11% in Q1 and is vulnerable to further downside risk in the near term. Aggressive QE policies implemented by the ECB and negative interest rates have resulted in significant outflows from Europe weighing heavily on the euro. The scope for further EUR/USD downside does exist and should play out in the markets over the coming months. However, once the Fed tightening is fully priced in, markets should begin focusing on Eurozone fundamentals which should be supportive of the euro in the medium/long term. Eurozone fundamentals have shifted to the upside with most forecasts calling for a GDP growth of 1.5% this year. Though diverging monetary policy will weigh on the euro we see a stabilization toward the latter part of the year. Calls for a 1:1 euro-dollar (parity) seem unlikely. We hold a year-end EUR/USD forecast of 1.09 MARKET SENTIMENT: Bearish Bullish

6 th Avenue, Suite 30 Markham Ontario, Canada, L3R 0B Fax: GBP/USD APRIL 2015 HIGHLIGHTS April f 201f GBP/USD Spot Q1a Q2f Q3f Q4f Q1f Q2f Q3f Q4f Forecast Consensus Forecast GBP/USD CURRENCY TREND - MARCH 2015 HIGHLIGHTS: GBP Interest Rate Decision APR 09 GBP Manufacturing Production APR 10 GBP Consumer Price Inflation APR 14 GBP Employment Data APR 17 GBP Retail Sales APR 23 Political uncertainly is likely to weigh on the GBP leading into the May 7th election. The Bank of England faces low inflationary pressures and as a result is unlikely to enter into a rate hiking cycle until 201. The overall sentiment on the GBP remains bearish over the short term. Though recent fundamentals have been weak, UK growth should accelerate over the course of Lower inflation, solid employment gains and growing consumer consumption should provide a potent mix to drive growth higher. The UK is expected to post a 2.7% rise in GDP in 2015, well ahead of most of its peers. We expect politics to weigh on the GBP in the coming months; however, given the strong economic fundamentals the UK should outperform most of its peers and give a significant boost to the pound toward the latter part of We look for a GBP/USD year-end target of MARKET SENTIMENT: Bearish Bullish

7 th Avenue, Suite 30 Markham Ontario, Canada, L3R 0B Fax: FOREIGN EXCHANGE DISCLAIMER This publication has been prepared by Inc. for informational and marketing purposes only. Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and - opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness and neither the information nor the forecast shall be taken as a representation for which Inc., its affiliates or any of their employees incur any responsibility. Neither Inc. nor its affiliates accept any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this information th Avenue, Suite 30 Markham, Ontario Canada L3T X1 Fax: This report has been prepared by Inc. as a resource for its clients. The opinions, projections and estimates contained herein are our own and subject to change without notice.

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