OptimizeRx OPRX. Buy. Platform Potential Continues to Grow $0.87 $4.00. Refer to the last two pages of this report for Disclosures
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1 Nov 14, 2014 Healthcare OptimizeRx Platform Potential Continues to Grow Other OTC OPRX Buy Rating Unchanged Current Price $0.87 Target Price $4.00 Market Capitalization 20.32M Shares Outstanding 23.36M Float 11.13M Institutional Holdings 4.00% 12-month Low/High $0.85/$2.12 Average 90-day Volume 44,555 Fiscal Year End Dec 31 Despite an earnings shortfall in the quarter, the company continues to make progress expanding its drug company and network distribution relationships, thereby improving the growth potential of its core pharmaceutical platform Reported third quarter 2014 EPS of -$0.02, which was less than our forecast and the street consensus forecast of $0.00; slippage largely due to 5% revenue shortfall, gross margin shortfall and stock compensation expense overage Revenue growth was 18% year-over-year and 11% sequentially, both strong numbers but, negatively impacted by external issues with Allscripts (MDRX: Not Rated), a major distribution partner; all issues with Allscripts have been resolved Company expects to nearly double distribution network capacity from approximately 65,000 active users today by the middle of 2015 Reducing 2014 and 2015 EPS forecasts from -$0.03 and $0.08 to -$0.04 and $0.05, respectively, but maintaining 2016 EPS forecast of $0.20; price target remains $4 Equity Research Vincent Colicchio, CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Business Services & Software (561) vcolicchio@noblefcm.com Noble Financial Capital Markets Trading: (561) Sales: (561) Refer to the last two pages of this report for Disclosures Revenues ($ MIL) Period 2013A 2014E 2015E Q1 0.67A 1.32A 1.92E Q2 1.10A 1.45A 2.12E Q3 1.37A 1.62A 3.08E Q4 1.81A 1.94E 4.12E 4.96A 6.34E 11.25E EPS ($ MIL) Period Q1 2013A 2014E 2015E (0.01)A (0.04)A 0.00E Q2 0.01A 0.00A 0.01E Q3 0.00A (0.02)A 0.01E Q4 0.01E 0.02E 0.01A (0.04)E NA 0.05E Page: 1 of 10
2 Investment Thesis We expect the company to grow rapidly over several years as the pharmaceutical industry shifts marketing dollars from sales representatives toward the company's core pharmaceutical platform. Continued growth of distribution capacity and pharmaceutical clients, as well as brand expansion at existing clients, should be the key growth drivers. Favorable trends, which include rapid growth of e-prescribing activity and physician time pressures, should continue to provide tailwinds for the company's pharmaceutical platform business. Other products, such as the company's veterinarian pharmaceutical platform, should provide a meaningful contribution over time. Despite an earnings shortfall in the quarter, the company continues to make progress expanding its drug company and network distribution relationships, thereby improving the growth potential of its core pharmaceutical platform. Importantly, external issues with Allscripts (MDRX: Not Rated) that adversely impacted distributions in the first three quarters of 2014 have been resolved. Third Quarter 2014 Earnings Review The company reported third quarter 2014 EPS of -$0.02, which was less than our forecast and the street consensus forecast of $0.00. The EPS slippage versus our forecast was primarily due to a revenue shortfall of 5%, an 800 basis point shortfall in gross margins and a 78% overage in stock compensation expenses. The following analysis compares third quarter 2014 results with (restated) third quarter 2013 results rather than third quarter 2013 results, as initially reported, to make the comparison more meaningful. The initial third quarter 2013 results were restated due to a change in the way the company accounts for revenue share expense. Total revenue increased 18% year-over-year from $1.4 million in third quarter 2013 and 11% sequentially from $1.5 million in second quarter 2014 to $1.6 million in third quarter The main source of revenue for the company remains SampleMD, which grew in the quarter due to an increase in the number of pharmaceutical brands marketed by the platform and expansion of the number of distribution channels. Importantly, all revenue categories, which include set up fees, reporting fees and distributions grew year-over-year and sequentially. The company's gross margin declined year-over-year from 61.5% in third quarter 2013 and sequentially from 62.9% in second quarter 2014 to 47% in third quarter The decline in gross margins was caused by a faster increase in revenue share expense than revenue, which means that distribution revenue grew as a portion of the mix. Non distribution revenue, such as set up fees and reporting fees, tend to generate higher margins than distribution revenue. In addition, the company started paying 10% of net revenue on all distribution revenue to LDM this year, which had a negative impact on the comparison with last year. In a legal settlement with LDM, the company agreed to pay a distribution fee on all SampleMD revenue in exchange for nonexclusive use of LDM's intellectual property. Adjusted EBITDA margins, which excludes depreciation and amortization, and stock compensation expenses, Page: 2 of 10
3 declined year-over-year from 13% in third quarter 2013 and sequentially from 16% in second quarter 2014 to 8% in third quarter The sequential decline was caused by lower gross margins and a large increase in stock compensation costs. Balance Sheet & Cash Flow Update As of the close of third quarter 2014, the company had a strong balance sheet, consisting of $3.3 million of cash and cash equivalents, no long-term debt and $4.9 million of shareholders' equity. During the quarter, the company generated a cash from operations loss of $622.3 thousand and a free cash flow loss of $761.2 thousand. We define free cash flow as cash from operations less capital spending and capitalized software development expenses. Core Platform Outlook Appears Robust The outlook for the company's core platform remains compelling given continued growth in the number of pharmaceutical brands available for promotion and continued expansion of distribution channels. The company continued to acquire new pharmaceutical partners and brands from existing partners in the quarter. Most recently, in August, the company launched its SampleMD solution within Quest Diagnostic's Care360 electronic health record (EHR) system. Impressively, management expects the number of active users to increase from approximately 65,000 today to nearly twice that number by the middle of A key driver will be the expected addition next year of two large health systems, which are users of the EPIC EHR system. This will be an important event since EPIC, a major EHR player, has been hesitant to partner with the company. The change is being driven by the users, which have urged EPIC to add the system. The addition of these two health systems could set a precedent that encourages other EPIC users to demand access. Another growth driver may emerge next year through the company's veterinarian pharmaceutical platform, which is scheduled for a beta test in the first quarter of This product may contribute meaningful revenue in the second half of Page: 3 of 10
4 Earnings Model Update We are reducing our 2014 and 2015 EPS forecasts modestly from -$0.03 and $0.08 to -$0.04 and $0.05, respectively. In 2014, the EPS reduction was caused by a 4% reduction in our revenue forecast, to account for incremental weakness at Allscripts, and a 410 basis point reduction in our gross margin forecast. In 2015, the reduction in our EPS forecast was largely due to a 650 basis point reduction in our gross margin forecast. Our prior gross margin forecasts were not properly reflecting the dilutive impact of the LDM settlement. Importantly, we are maintaining our 2016 EPS forecast of $0.20. The key assumptions in our earnings model for 2014, 2015 and 2016 are as follows: 2014 model Revenue growth: 28%, gross margin: 54%, adjusted EBITDA margin: 8%, EPS growth: -397% 2015 model Revenue growth: 78%, gross margin: 49%, adjusted EBITDA margin: 22%, EPS growth: -208% 2016 model Revenue growth: 74%, gross margin: 51%, adjusted EBITDA margin: 33%, EPS growth: 315% Page: 4 of 10
5 Valuation Summary Our month price target for OPRX stock is $4, which is based on 20x our 2016 EPS forecast of $0.20. Our PEG-based valuation was derived by multiplying a 0.5x PEG by our estimate of a 40% five-year EPS compound annual growth rate (CAGR) and then multiplying the product, which is 20x, by our 2016 EPS forecast of $0.20. The 0.5x PEG multiple used in our valuation represents a steep discount to the peer group average multiple of 1.3x to (conservatively) account for liquidity risk. Our five-year EPS CAGR forecast of 40% assumes EPS growth of 315% in 2016 and 7% per year for 2017 through These growth rates are extremely conservative to account for the risks inherent in disruptive technology. The key risks for OPRX shares include the following: 1) large pharmaceutical companies and EHR vendors have substantial financial resources, which can be used to create competing products, 2) institutional resistance to change could slow the adoption of the company's service by pharmaceutical companies and physicians and 3) high revenue concentration with the company's top five clients, which comprised 63% of revenue in first nine months of Page: 5 of 10
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9 DISCLAIMER All statements or opinions contained herein that include the words "we", "us", or "our" are solely the responsibility of Noble Financial and do not necessarily reflect statements or opinions expressed by any person or party affiliated with the company mentioned in this report. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. All information provided herein is based on public and non-public information believed to be accurate and reliable, but is not necessarily complete and cannot be guaranteed. No judgment is hereby expressed or should be implied as to the suitability of any security described herein for any specific investor or any specific investment portfolio. The decision to undertake any investment regarding the security mentioned herein should be made by each reader of this publication based on its own appraisal of the implications and risks of such decision. This publication is intended for information purposes only and shall not constitute an offer to buy/sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy/sell any security mentioned in this report, nor shall there be any sale of the security herein in any state or domicile in which said offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such state or domicile. This publication and all information, comments, statements or opinions contained or expressed herein are applicable only as of the date of this publication and subject to change without prior notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES Within the past 30 days, a Noble Financial Company Research employee and/or their immediate supervisors have not effected a transaction for their own account(s) in the investment(s) referred to in this report, nor will such a transaction take place within 5 days of its publication. A Noble Financial Company has received compensation for investment banking services from the subject company in the past 12 months. A Noble Financial Company is not a market maker in the subject company. Page: 9 of 10
10 WARNING This report is intended to provide general securities advice, and does not purport to make any recommendation that any securities transaction is appropriate for any recipient particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Prior to making any investment decision, recipients should assess, or seek advice from their advisors, on whether any relevant part of this report is appropriate to their individual circumstances. If a recipient was referred to a Noble Financial Company by an investment advisor, that advisor may receive a benefit in respect of transactions effected on the recipients behalf, details of which will be available on request in regard to a transaction that involves a personalized securities recommendation. Additional risks associated with the security mentioned in this report that might impede achievement of the target can be found in its initial report issued by a Noble Financial Company. This report may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose unless authorized by a Noble Financial Company. U.S. CLIENTS For purposes of distribution in the United States, this report is prepared for persons who can be defined as "Institutional Investors" under U.S. regulations. Any U.S. person receiving this report and wishing to effect a transaction in any security discussed herein, must do so through a U.S. registered broker or dealer. Noble International Investments, Inc. is a U.S. registered broker dealer. RESEARCH ANALYST CERTIFICATION Independence Of View All views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities or issuers. Receipt of Compensation All or part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views in the research report. Ownership and Material Conflicts of Interest Neither I nor anybody in my household has a financial interest in the securities of the subject company or any other company mentioned in this report. Additional information is available upon request. Any recipient of this report that wishes further information regarding the subject company or the disclosure information mentioned herein, should contact Noble Financial by mail or phone. Noble International Investments, Inc., dba Noble Financial Capital Markets is a FINRA registered broker/dealer. Member - SPIC (Securities Investor Protection Corporation) % OF STOCKS COVERED % OF IB CLIENTS BUY: potential return is >15% above the current price NFCM RATING DEFINITIONS 68% 35% HOLD: potential return is -15% to 15% of the current price 26% 2% SELL: potential return is >15% below the current price 0% 0% Report ID: 7861 Page: 10 of 10
OPTIMIZERx OPRX. Buy. Optimizing/Monetizing Pharmaceutical Distribution $0.90 $4.00. Refer to the last two pages of this report for Disclosures
Oct 27, 2014 OPTIMIZERx Healthcare Optimizing/Monetizing Pharmaceutical Distribution Other OTC OPRX Expect company to grow rapidly for several years as pharmaceutical industry shifts marketing dollars
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