ACF morning workshop. Is your investment committee asking the right questions?

Transcription

1 ACF morning workshop Is your investment committee asking the right questions?

2 Contents 1. Why would a charity want to consider a total return investment policy? What do we mean by total return? 2. Finding the right balance between UK and overseas equities 3. Bonds managing bonds in a bear market / how much capital are you converting into income 4. What to think about when allocating funds to alternative investments 5. ESG and managing the carbon exposures in your portfolio 6. Conclusion 1

3 Total Return 2

4 What do we mean by Total Return? THE BREAKDOWN OF TOTAL RETURN FTSE % Portfolio Income 3.0 Capital Appreciation 10.5 Total Return

5 How has a balanced portfolio performed? WM CHARITY UNIVERSE % 1, WM Charities Source: Sarasin & Partners 2015 & State Street Corporation (The WM Company) 4

6 Real capital performance: After inflation, fees and spending PROGRESSION OF CAPITAL SINCE 1982 % After spending 6% p.a WM Charities Source: Sarasin & Partners 2015 & State Street Corporation (The WM Company) 5

7 How much can you spend with a Total Return Policy? Total Return After costs 6.4% Capital Gain - 3.3% Inflation 2.0% - to be retained within the portfolio to allow for inflation Real gain 1.3% - available for spending Income - 3.1% Income 3.1% - available for spending In addition to the income of 3.1%, it would be possible to spend 1.3% of the capital gain, whilst still maintaining the real value of the capital 6

8 Why consider a Total Return Investment Policy? A Total Return investment policy gives freedom to meet spending needs from a combination of capital gain and income, drawing on the real capital gain if the natural income falls short in any one year. Low yield environment Trustees forced to concentrate investment in higher yielding assets distorting asset allocation i.e. pharmaceutical, banking, utilities vs. index-linked, technology, alternatives Yield Trap Investing in high yield companies purely for the income increase risks in the portfolio i.e. if a company cuts its dividend it impacts both capital and income Section 4 Trusts Act 2013 amended Charities Act 2011 to enable permanently endowed charities to pursue a Total Return approach to investing, on the condition that the capital value appreciates in line with inflation over the long term 7

9 Real capital performance: After inflation, fees and spending PROGRESSION OF CAPITAL: LAST 10 YEARS % After spending 3.7% pa Source: Sarasin & Partners 2015 & State Street Corporation (The WM Company) 8

10 The impact of spending on returns REAL CAPITAL VALUE AFTER COSTS AND AFTER A SPENDING RATE OF X% PER ANNUM 9

11 and how much can we spend? THE INCOME YIELD OF AN ENDOWMENT PORTFOLIO SINCE % Source: Sarasin & Partners

12 Investing overseas 11

13 Investing globally avoids sector concentration.and structural imbalances 12

14 Sterling a volatile currency 2.25 Sterling / Dollar Exchange Rate

15 Has investing in -hedged global equities worked? Performance (GBP) UK Equities 49.3% Global Equities (ex UK) 66.8% Global Equities (ex UK - hedged) 73.6% Benchmark data source: UK Equities - FTSE All Share Index Benchmark data source: Global Equities - MSCI All Countries World Index ex UK and MSCI All Countries World Index ex UK Local Currency Period of data 31 st March 2010 to 31 st March

16 Bond markets today and what do we mean by converting capital into income? 15

17 Quantitative easing relative size of programmes RATIO OF BOND PURCHASES TO BOND SUPPLY WHAT THE PROGRAMME ENTAILS Committed to buying 60bn of bonds per month Bonds being bought are Asset-backed, covered and Governments Programme extends to September 2016 Programme will amount to 1.1 trillion of purchases (FED programme amounted to c. US$2 trillion) Only buying programme countries (not Greece or Cyprus) Programme entitled PSPP Public Sector Purchase Programme 16

18 Interest rate policies can be negative now! SOURCE: MACROBOND, FEBRUARY 2015 Global policy rates 17

19 A history of gilt yields Gilt Yield Source: Bloomberg

20 % Duration 4 UK GILT YIELD CURVE A fall of 3.3% A fall of 10.2% A fall of 22.2% Bond B has a Duration of 10.2 years Bond C has a Duration of 22.2 years Bond A has a Duration of 3.3 years Years Source: Bloomberg 19

21 Gross Redemption Yield BOND YIELDS Name Coupon Maturity Price Running Yield Gross Redemption Yield UK Treasury 4.25 December % 2.5% UK Treasury 4.25 December % 2.0% UK Treasury 1.75 September % 1.6% UK Treasury 8.00 June % 1.4% Are you aware of the extent to which you are converting capital into income? Source: Sarasin & Partners 20

22 Alternative investments what should we consider when allocating? 21

23 Alternatives: A wealth of opportunity ALTERNATIVES COVER A BROAD SECTOR Each sub-sector provides a different risk and return profile Alternative investments utilise a different approach to investing than traditional asset classes This can mean strategies are: - Less liquid - More complex / less transparent - More reliant on manager skill - More expensive INCOME GENERATION Infrastructure Floating rate loans Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) Business Development Corporations (BDCs) GROWTH Private equity Venture capital Global macro Distressed securities Activist strategies RISK REDUCTION Long/short equity Absolute return Managed futures Arbitrage INFLATION PROTECTION Gold and precious metals Timber Infrastructure Art and collectibles Farmland Source: Sarasin 22

24 Alternatives: The opportunity to reduce portfolio risk So how can alternatives enhance multi-asset portfolios? - Diversification - Return POTENTIAL FOR LOWER VOLATILITY AND ENHANCED RETURNS Returns and volatility of major asset classes ( ) The important thing is to have a diversified basket of strategies: - Appropriate allocation - Correct funding - Suitable structure Source: Informa Investment Solutions 23

25 Alternatives: Selection matters What should we consider a snapshot: QUALITY OF MANAGEMENT & PROCESS THE TRACK RECORD RISKS CHECKS Is there an edge & is it sustainable? Discussion of past mistakes & lessons learned View it in the context of the strategy Is it the result of leverage? Select an appropriate benchmark Liquidity Leverage Concentration Correlation Cross-check through multiple sources fund managers cannot hide from Google! If it seems too good to be true then it probably is! HIGH SPREAD BETWEEN PERFORMANCE OF MANAGERS ( ) US Gov t EM Debt Coporate Debt Lg-Cap Core Sm. Cap Core Emerging Markets Real Estate Hedge Funds Private Equity Source: Morningstar Top decile Bottom decile Decile performance spread 0 24

26 ESG and managing the carbon exposure in a portfolio 25

27 Stewardship: Environmental, social and governance considerations Ethical Exclusions We should avoid investment in any companies that might conflict with the charity s objects. One should aim to avoid investments where a significant percentage of a company s turnover derives from the following activities: e.g. - Production of Tobacco - Adult Entertainment - Aerospace & Defence - Gambling Engaged ownership Once we have bought a stake in a company, we stay close to its management, monitoring the business s strategic outlook and performance, its critical value drivers to ensure their persistence, and our conviction in the stock s long-term value proposition. We regularly vote your shares responsibly. Thought-leadership and policy outreach Where we see negative macro or sector-level practices or policies, and where we believe we can contribute to change, we will seek to do so. Where appropriate, we seek to work closely with other shareholders as a voice for positive change 26

28 Policy example: investors can help prevent climate change Shift capital within fossil fuel companies engagement We are no longer International Oil Companies, but International Energy Companies Finance director for major oil and gas company Co-filed resolutions calling for a climate strategy at Shell and BP Shift capital away from fossil fuel companies divestment Two drivers: Moral (mandated) and investment risk management (flexible) Spreading quickly Fossil fuels account for c10% world equity markets (c20% FTSE All Share) Shape policy Build investor consensus to urge policy-makers to act Call on companies to push for regulation Challenge those lobbying against robust action 27

29 Conclusion 1. Why would a charity want to consider a total return investment policy? What do we mean by total return? 2. Finding the right balance between UK and overseas equities 3. Bonds managing bonds in a bear market / how much capital are you converting into income 4. What to think about when allocating funds to alternative investments 5. ESG and managing the carbon exposures in your portfolio 6. Conclusion 28

30 Important Information This document has been issued by Sarasin & Partners LLP which is a limited liability partnership registered in England and Wales with registered number OC and is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and passported under MiFID to provide investment services in the Republic of Ireland. It has been prepared solely for information purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. The information on which the document is based has been obtained from sources that we believe to be reliable, and in good faith, but we have not independently verified such information and we make no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to their accuracy. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice. Please note that the prices of shares and the income from them can fall as well as rise and you may not get back the amount originally invested. This can be as a result of market movements and also of variations in the exchange rates between currencies. Past performance is not a guide to future returns and may not be repeated. All rights in the FTSE 100 and FTSE All Share Indices vest in FTSE International Limited ( FTSE ). FTSE is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE under licence. Neither Sarasin & Partners LLP nor any other member of Bank J. Safra Sarasin Ltd. accepts any liability or responsibility whatsoever for any consequential loss of any kind arising out of the use of this document or any part of its contents. The use of this document should not be regarded as a substitute for the exercise by the recipient of his or her own judgment. Sarasin & Partners LLP and/or any person connected with it may act upon or make use of the material referred to herein and/or any of the information upon which it is based, prior to publication of this document. If you are a private investor you should not rely on this document but should contact your professional adviser Sarasin & Partners LLP all rights reserved. This document can only be distributed or reproduced with permission from Sarasin & Partners LLP. 29

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