THE AFRICAN DATA CENTER RISES

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1 THE AFRICAN DATA CENTER RISES Data Center Colocation Demand, Supply, Forecasts & Business Models in African Markets A XALAM ANALYTICS SPOTLIGHT REPORT REPORT TABLE OF CONTENTS October 2015 Dakar London - Cambridge 1

2 Fresh. Deeper. Africa Digital Analytics. Xalam. You re Welcome. Copyright 2015 by Xalam Analytics, LLC. All rights reserved. Please see important disclosures at the end of this document. We welcome all feedback on our research. Please feedback to: 2

3 REPORT OVERVIEW Every so often, a product sees a multiplicity of factors combine, as if coordinated, to create a groundswell of demand for it so strong that it turns into a neartsunami, only held back by the supply side s inability to keep up with it. Our analysis of the African multi-tenant colocation data center market suggests a market in such a stage, at the onset of a phase of accelerated growth driven by factors ranging from rising demand for cloud and server virtualization services to booming media content markets, regulatory pressures to repatriate hosting of African content, and substantially improved metro fiber infrastructure. The African Data Center Rises: Colocation Demand, Supply, Forecasts & Business Models, provides one of the most comprehensive research currently available on the African data center market. The report offers in-depth qualitative and quantitative analysis of demand for data center services in sub-saharan Africa, along with estimates and projections of available white space supply, analysis of the collocation business model and profiles of key African collocation providers. The report offers insights on data center service provisioning in a context of distressingly deficient power infrastructure and provides profiles of key African colocation market players, their estimated share, business models and overall outlook. In addition, the report analyzes data center demand in key economic centers such as Johannesburg, Cape Town, Lagos and Nairobi, and further identifies Accra, Dar es Salaam, Ibadan and Port Harcourt as offering the next best data center opportunities in the region. Sample findings of The African Data Center Rises: Colocation Demand, Supply, Forecasts & Business Models include the following: African colocation demand is rising two to three times faster than supply those curves nonetheless have different shapes (continuous line vs. staircase), leading to markets that alternate between phases of colocation space supply deficit and surplus as demand catches up to supply and vice versa. The African data center market is critical to the integration of the continent into global networks Hyperscale and Internet cloud players, such as Amazon Web Services, Microsoft (Azure) and Google have global cloud services built upon an extensive network of self-built data centers, but lack Africa-based data centers, creating latency issues and hampering the growth of their cloud offerings in the region. In assessing the three main elements of colo pricing rack space, power and connectivity, we find that more than power, the cost of connectivity is currently the fulcrum of the colocation price structure in Africa. Fiber connectivity market structure and pricing is a critical hurdle to colo growth in Nigeria, and the single most critical obstacle to the establishment of an independent colo market in an otherwise compelling Tanzanian market. Xalam Analytics LLC The African Data Center Rises: Data Center Colocation Demand, Supply, Forecasts & Business Models in the African Market 3

4 THE AFRICAN DATA CENTER COLOCATION MARKET SOME HIGHLIGHTS Average Data Traffic Rising by ~100% a year in key African Markets SSA Colo Supply 7x smaller than London Colo Supply ~1m liters of diesel in generators or reserve tanks Hyperscale Cloud Players (AWS EC2, Google, Azure) Need Africa Presence but Conditions Not Good Enough to build Own DC Colo Market is Ripe for Consolidation Across the Value Chain Strong Movement to Bring Content (and therefore Hosting) Closer to Customers Acceleration of Demand for Cloud Services ~$550m Colo Market Projected to Triple in Size by 2020 SSA Aggregate Colo Power Load at about 50 MW Metro Fiber More Available in Business Districts If not Necessarily Cheap Power Grid as the Primary Source of Power Remains The Predominant Setup but 90% Use Diesel as Primary or Back-Up Cost of Connectivity Dominates Colo Pricing Structure Dar es Salam, Ibadan, Accra can be African Colo Next Big Thing 500K to 600k of Total Data Center Space ~150 MT Data Centers but only ~12 certified Tier III or Tier IV Only 5-10% of Addressable Data Center Market Uses Colocation Services Johannesburg, Cape Town, Lagos, Nairobi: 90% of available colo white space in SSA Colo DC utilization levels varying from 30% to as much as 80% High PUEs Colo Demand Rising Faster than Colo Supply Xalam Analytics LLC The African Data Center Rises: Data Center Colocation Demand, Supply, Forecasts & Business Models in the African Market 4

5 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: THE AFRICAN DATA CENTER RISES SECTION I: AFRICAN COLOCATION MARKET: THE DEMAND CASE 1.1 Drivers of African Colo Demand From Cloud to Epileptic Power Supply, They are Plentiful Connectivity: Need More, But It s Better From Financials to Media and Cloud Players, an Expanded Addressable Market International Players: Fitting Africa into Global Networks Others: Cloud, Virtualisation, Managed Services, Regulation 1.2 Breaking Down the Nature of Demand Wholesale First. Retail? Later, Maybe. 1.3 Sizing Up the African Data Center Colo TAM Some Market Sizing Parameters Three Types of Colo Demand: From Addressable to Potential to Real Demand The Demand Curve: 60% to 90% of Potential Demand Is Not Yet Addressed SECTION II AFRICAN COLOCATION MARKET: THE SUPPLY SIDE 2.1 The African Colocation Market: Supply Overview & Colo White Space Projections African Colocation White Space Supply Bursting at the Seams Key Colo Hot Spots and Tier Certification Africa Colo Supply Outlook: Strong 2.2 African Colocation Market Structure: Carrier Neutral Plays, Fibercos, Telcos and Everybody Else African Colo Market Structure: From Server Rooms to Data Centers Xalam Analytics LLC The African Data Center Rises: Data Center Colocation Demand, Supply, Forecasts & Business Dynamics in the African Market 5

6 TABLE OF CONTENTS SECTION II AFRICAN COLOCATION MARKET: THE SUPPLY SIDE 2.3 Who s Got the Power? African Colo Data Centers and the Power Infrastructure Headache The Exploding Demand for Data Center Power How They Do It: African Data Centers Sources of Power How They Do It: Diesel or Bust, High PUEs and Other Implications 2.4 African Colo Pricing: Looking for Equilibrium Or Not African Colo Pricing: (Not) Looking for the Supply-Demand Equilibrium African Colo Pricing: Outside of SA, Not Exactly Compelling for Retail Customers SECTION III SUPPLY DEMAND GAPS, HOTSPOTS AND REVENUE PROJECTIONS 3.1 Supply/Demand Gap Analysis: of Surpluses and Deficits 3.2 From Dar es Salaam to Ibadan: Looking for Other Potential DC Hotspots 3.3 African Colocation Market Revenue Projections: Tracking Towards the Billion SECTION IV AFRICAN COLO PLAYER REVIEW, POSITIONING & BUSINESS MODEL EVOLUTION 4.1 African Colo Player Strategic Evolution: Where they Are, Where They re Going Strategic Evolution Tier 1 Access Carriers Strategic Evolution Carrier Neutral Colocation Pure Plays Strategic Evolution IT, Cloud Service Providers & ISPs Strategic Evolution Fiber Companies 4.2 African Colo Key Player Review: From Teraco to MDI-X and Rack Center SECTION V KEY MARKET ANALYSIS: JOHANNESBURG & LAGOS 5.1 Appendix: Supply Demand Gaps and Key Player Analysis in the Johannesburg Market 5.2 Appendix: Supply Demand Gaps and Key Player Analysis in the Lagos Market The African Data Center Rises: Data Center Colocation Demand, Supply, Xalam Analytics LLC Forecasts & Business Dynamics in the African Market 6

7 LIST OF EXHIBITS SECTION I: AFRICAN COLOCATION MARKET: THE DEMAND CASE Snapshot of Key Drivers of African Data Center Colo Demand Evolution of Africa 3G and 4G Subscription Base* Key Customers of African Colocation Services Strategic Options Available to African Colocation Customers Key African Colocation Demand Curves SECTION II AFRICAN COLOCATION MARKET: THE SUPPLY SIDE A Mapping of Sub-Saharan Africa s Data Center White Space Capacity Square Meters Uptime Institute Tier Certification Definitions Evolution of Africa Colocation White Space Supply Square Meters E 2015E Evolution of Africa Colocation Power Supply MW E 2015E How African Colocation Supply Compares vs. London & Frankfurt Power How African Colocation Supply Compares vs. London & Frankfurt White Space Evolution of Africa Colocation Supply by Key Market 2010E 2015E Market Contribution to Africa Colocation Supply Sq. m E Table Africa Tier III & Tier IV Certified DCs* Africa Colocation White Space by Key Market Africa Colocation Data Center Power Load by Key Market Africa Colocation White Space Five Year Projections* Africa New Data Centers Sample Projects & Plans Indicative Only A Structural Overview of the African Data Center Market Electric Power Demand vs. Power Supply in Sample African Markets How Africa Compares Sample Indicative Data Center Power Usage Effectiveness (PUE) Indicators Africa Colocation Data Center Power Load Projections* Xalam Analytics LLC The African Data Center Rises: Data Center Colocation Demand, Supply, Forecasts & Business Dynamics in the African Market 7

8 LIST OF EXHIBITS DC Colocation, Connectivity and Power Monthly Recurring Rates Benchmarks in Sample Markets* DC Colocation, Connectivity and Power Installation Rates Benchmarks in Sample Markets* DC Colocation, Connectivity and Power Contribution to Overall Pricing in Sample Markets Monthly Recurring DC Power Cost per kw in Sample Markets SECTION III SUPPLY DEMAND GAPS, HOTSPOTS AND REVENUE PROJECTIONS Colocation White Space Adoption in Sample African Markets Colocation White Space Utilization Rates in Sample African Markets 2015 Proportion of Potential Colo Market that is NOT Served Colocation Demand* vs. Supply CAGR in Sample African Markets From Ibadan to Cape Town: Where Markets Stand in the Colocation Demand vs. Supply Curves Evolution of Colocation Supply Surplus and Deficit in Key African Markets * Top City/Regional Economic Centers in Sub-Saharan Africa by GDP Key City/Region GDP vs. Colo White Space Matrix Where s the Best? Benchmarking of Top City/Regional Economic Centers in Sub-Saharan Africa: From Power to Cheap Metro Fiber Availability Looking for the Next Data Center Opportunity: Benchmarking of Africa s Key Economic Centers Africa Colocation Revenue Forecasts by Key Market Connectivity Contribution to Colo Revenue in Sample Markets Colocation Revenue CAGR by Key African Market SECTION IV AFRICAN COLO PLAYER REVIEW, POSITIONING & BUSINESS MODEL EVOLUTION Where They re Coming From, Where They re Going How Colocation Fits in Key Players Portfolios Tier 1 Carriers Share of Data Center White Space in Sample African Markets Carrier Neutral Pure Play Colo Share of Data Center White Space in Sample African Markets IT/Cloud Service Providers and ISPs Share of Data Center White Space in African Sample Markets Fiber Companies Share of Data Center White Space in Sample African Markets Xalam Analytics LLC The African Data Center Rises: Data Center Colocation Demand, Supply, Forecasts & Business Dynamics in the African Market 8

9 COMPANIES MENTIONED IN THIS REPORT Akamai Kooba Net One Group Tata Communications Amazon Web Services Level 3 Pamoja Telkom SA Angani Limelight Rack Africa Teraco Broadbased Communications Liquid Telecom Rack Center Nigeria T-Systems BT Microsoft Seacom Vodacom Business Business Connexion South Africa MTN Business Standard Bank West Africa Data Center Cloudflare Neotel Tata Communications CWG Net One Group Telkom SA East Africa Data Center (EADC) Pamoja Teraco Equinix Rack Africa T-Systems Eskom Rack Center Nigeria Vodacom Business Facebook Kooba West Africa Data Center Google Level 3 Net One Group Internet Solutions (IS) Limelight Pamoja Jumia Liquid Telecom Rack Africa Kaymu Microsoft Rack Center Nigeria Konga MTN Business Seacom Kooba Neotel Standard Bank 9

10 Xalam Analytics - Global Expertise, AME Research Depth LEADING GLOBAL MEDIA & RESEARCH AME COVERAGE FOCUS The Research arm of Light Reading, the leading global, community-driven media and research business Provides deep insight and comprehensive strategic guidance covering a full range of emerging telecom technologies and services Variety of custom services ranging from multi-client studies for in-depth technology innovation research to White Paper development and live strategy sessions in support of go to market strategies. EXTENSIVE TECH & INNOV EXPERTISE EXTENSIVE TECH RESEARCH PORTFOLIO XALAM ANALYTICS FOCUS ON BUSINESS VALUE, ECONOMICS ENTERPRISE & CARRIER SEGMENT FOCUS A premier consultancy focused on digital, enterprise and carrier markets in Africa and the Middle East Unmatched country level depth of insights, across a matrix spanning more than 40 countries, SMEs to MNCs, and a dozen industry verticals Strategic focus on variety of enterprise and carrier services including IP voice, fixed and mobile broadband, corporate VPNs, cloud and data center services, M2M and metro/ld backhaul. 10

11 REPORT SPECIFICATIONS Report in PDF format* ~105 Pages ~50 supporting Exhibits and Charts 20-slide Executive summary in PPT format for quick consumption Enterprise License USD

12 Xalam Analytics, LLC US Office: 1 Mifflin Place, Harvard Sq. Suite 400 Cambridge, MA London Dakar Tel (US Office): Fax: XALAM ANALYTICS Africa Middle East. Enterprise Analytics. Xalam. You re 12

THE AFRICAN DATA CENTER RISES

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