Aid for Trade Mona Haddad Sector Manager International Trade Department World Bank
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1 Aid for Trade Mona Haddad Sector Manager International Trade Department World Bank UNITAR Seminar on International Trade and the Doha Round July 11, 2008
2 1. Background Content 2. Why aid for trade? 3. What is aid for trade? 4. What is happening on aid for trade? Resources Coordination Enhance Integrated Framework WTO Aid for Trade Task Force 5. What is the World Bank doing on A4T? 6. Concluding remarks
3 Background The global market has expanded dramatically in the past three decades Falling transport and communications costs have been a major driver Lowering of trade barriers has propelled integration; major unilateral reforms in developing countries have slashed tariffs, particularly in industrial goods from over 30 percent to under 10 percent on average. Developing countries total share in world exports of non-oil manufactures increased from 6.7 percent to 15.3 percent in
4 Low income countries have improved their trade performance Average Average Export Growth in Low income vs. Middle Income Countries percent LIC Export Grow th MIC Export Grow th Source: World Bank, WDI Their expansion of exports have been on par with MICs
5 But LICs still lag behind MICs in improving market share Market Share in Low income vs. Middle Income Countries Average Average percent LIC Market Share MIC Market Share Source: World Bank, WDI
6 Challenges for LICs Many have been unable to take advantage of market access opportunities and special preferences Supply-side constraints and infrastructure bottlenecks hamper their integration into the world economy Poor transport infrastructure (roads, ports) mean that producers are not linked to markets Inefficient institutions (e.g., customs) and regulation (red tape, poor investment climate) increase cost of trading Lack of machinery for trade - inability to meet standards or to prove that meet standards in export markets
7 Poor trade logistics impede developing country trade High income countries are generally top performers, but there are big differences between countries at other income levels
8 In brief, why aid for trade? Recognition of the need for additional assistance to Enable countries to benefit from market access opportunities by overcoming supply side constraints Enable countries to address transitional adjustment costs from own and others liberalization Ensure provision of the global public good of trade reform and related infrastructure investments Means that aid for trade has come to be seen as an essential complement to but not a substitute for liberalization under the Doha Round.
9 Growth is important for poverty reduction and trade is important for growth Higher growth is associated with lower trade restrictiveness Change in Gdp per capita (log) NGA TTO RUS AZE CHN HRV BGR BWA UKR ROM MUS IRN ARG CHL MYS THA TUR TUN ZAF CRI ALB URY PAN COL DZA NAM INDJOR PER KHMLKA VEN BRA MEX PHL MAR ECU MDA IDN EGY LBN SDN GHA BGD NIC PAK MOZ KGZ GUY HND PRY BFA BOLCMR ETH ZMB SLV MLI UGA GTM KEN NER BEN NPL BDI PNG GAB TGO TZA CAF SEN MDG RWA Change in the OTRI (percentage points) Av annual % growth,
10 Addressing adjustment from liberalization 1. Own liberalization assistance to replace tariff revenue with other taxes, social safety nets or retraining for affected workers 2. Liberalization by trading partners Preference erosion (e.g., EU sugar reform) Without A4T, there may be reluctance to undertake or see others undertake beneficial trade reform
11 Case study: AFT in Mauritius Country hit by three external shocks the phase out of the textile and clothing agreement, reductions in sugar prices in the EU, rising oil prices Mauritius adopted reform program in 2006 reforms of the incentive system to improve competitiveness, reforms of the investment and regulatory regimes, programs to empower the poor and broaden their participation in the economy. $30M in budget support from WB and $30M France Additional AFT resources would have made the adjustment easier w/ less reduction in public investment.
12 What is aid for trade? Instruments Technical assistance: specialized advice and technical expertise to support effective market access and development e.g. economic diagnostics, support for WTO accession, improving business climate Capacity and institution building: building the capacity of developing countries and strengthening institutions to manage trade issues, e.g. the training of government officials, customs modernization. Assistance to enhance domestic productivity: access to finance, banking, agriculture, research and development, industry, trade promotion at national and sectoral levels Assistance with adjustment costs: fiscal support and policy advice to help countries cope with any transitional adjustment costs from liberalization. Investments in Infrastructure: improving transport, energy, and communications to link the poor and the goods they produce to markets. Task Force Categories Trade Development Trade Policy and Regulations Building of productive capacity Trade-related adjustment Trade-related Infrastructure
13 Where does the AFT agenda end? Defining aid for trade Which types of economic infrastructure are AFT? Hard to assess additionality Concessionality Terms for financing? Grants or loans? OECD counts only concessional lending Conditionality Financing tied to trade reform? Should AFT be results based like IDA?
14 How should AFT be delivered? Earmarked funds for trade vs country ownership Should AFT focus on countries for which trade is a priority? Implementation of trade agreements vs building capacity to trade Preference erosion and supply-side constraints LDCs vs LICs Regional needs vs. country needs 10% of aid for trade is channeled through regional and multi-country programs. Important Challenges: Trade often not mainstreamed in development strategies. Lack of country and sometimes donor capacity to implement TA
15 AFT Flows: A look at the Top Highest Recipients of AFT
16 AFT flows: Asia & Africa are the focus Average AFT flows per country by region
17 AFT flows: Other Low income countries received the most Average AFT flows per country by income group
18 What is happening on aid for trade? Between total AFT commitments rose 22% to 21.7 bn. Aid for trade (bilateral and multilateral) by category ( ) Commitments, USD billion (2005 constant prices)
19 What is happening on aid for trade? New funding is also increasing. The European Commission will increase trade-related assistance by 300 million a year to a total of 1 billion a year EU members states will match this by Japan has promised $10 billion on aid for trade over three years United States has promised a doubling of aid for trade to $2.7 billion a year by Some have made new commitments (Australia) and others foresee an increase in demand driven spending (World Bank)
20 What is happening on aid for trade? These increased resources call for increased efforts at international coordination of aid for trade to help ensure aid effectiveness Integrated Framework of Technical Assistance for LDCs Enhanced Integrated Framework WTO Aid for Trade Task Force AFT should delivered in accordance with the Paris Principles on Aid Effectiveness Ownership: Partner countries exercise effective leadership over their development policies, and strategies and co-ordinate development actions Alignment: Donors base their overall support on partner countries' national development strategies, institutions and procedures Harmonisation: Donors' actions are more harmonized, transparent and collectively effective Managing for Results: Managing resources and improving decision-making for results Mutual Accountability: Donors and partners are accountable for development results
21 Integrated Framework Trade-related assistance for LDCs Donors + 6 agencies (UNCTAD, UNDP, ITC, IMF, WB, WTO) Country ownership 28 LDCs in IF and 7 more in the process of joining Objectives Integrate trade into national development strategies Donor coordination Two stages Diagnostics (DTIS) Follow up TA/CB projects IF does not directly fund infrastructure but should mobilize donors to provide necessary resources
22 Enhanced Integrated Framework The EIF was established in May 2007 Main enhancements Increased, additional and predictable funding on a multi-year basis Target of $400m over initial 5 year period, $100m pledged Strengthened in-country machinery for increased ownership and effectiveness at country level Dedicated funding of US$300,000 per year for 5 years to support in country implementation Streamlined governance at the global level New independent Secretariat in Geneva Monitoring and evaluation framework Trust fund manager was selected and new funding is expected to be operational by end 2008
23 WTO Aid for Trade Task Force Established in February 2006 with a mandate to provide recommendations for how A4T "might contribute most effectively to the development dimension of the Doha Development Agenda." Main recommendations Uniform definition aid for trade Strengthening needs identification at the country level and donor response Explore possibility of an IF-type structure for non-ldc low income countries Country ownership and better integration of trade into donor programming Addressing regional aid for trade needs Global cooperation to improve data collection Monitoring within WTO of aid for trade (TPRs) Global Aid for Trade Review
24 What is the WB doing on AFT? Lending Concessional lending increased 4x in recent years to reach $569 million in FY07. Rising trend expected to continue in FY08. Trade Facilitation/Market Access activities and Regional Integration are main areas. Focus is on AFR particularly cross country trade facilitation projects. e.g. Abidjan-Lagos Transportation and Transit Project Advisory Work and Technical Assistance 37 TA projects involving trade (e.g. tools to analyze impact of liberalization, capacity building in ICT services) 66 pieces of trade-related analytical work covering 41 countries and 9 sub-regions. Focused on AFR, followed by ECA and EAP Trust fund resources are also expanding. In 2007, Multi-Donor Trust Fund for Trade and Development was launched Provides 30 million, , for analytical work and TCB AFR and low income countries will be the priority.
25 Total World Bank lending for trade is also increasing. No. of projects Commitment (US$mns) # projects $ millions 0 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 0
26 Monitoring and Evaluation 1 st Global review took place in November 2007 Monitoring is a work in progress Goal is to develop indicators that monitor the contribution of trade to human development and poverty reduction. DG Lamy: proposal to hold national and sub-regional AFT Reviews in Africa, LAC, Asia and Pacific in 2008 to assess or "road-test" Aid-for-Trade plans identify priorities agreeing on how these plans and priorities should be implemented. Experts Symposium on Aid-for-Trade Evaluation and indicators in September 2008 Next Global Review of AFT first half 2009
27 Concluding thoughts Work in progress much remains to be done to operationalize this agenda Aid for trade will continue despite (lack of) progress in Doha negotiations, but may lose some political momentum Broader growth agenda in aid will remain important and be a focus for aid for trade Important that aid for trade be Consistent with the Paris Principles on Aid Effectiveness (harmonization, alignment, country ownership, and management for results), and Implemented through existing systems and development institutions with proven comparative advantage Focused on bringing practical solutions to developing countries trade needs
28 Thank you
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