ECON 260 Theories of Economic Development. Instructor: Jorge Agüero. Fall Lecture 1 September 29,

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1 ECON 260 Theories of Economic Development. Instructor: Jorge Agüero. Fall Lecture 1 September 29,

2 General information Time and location: TR 2:10-3:30 p.m. SPR 3123 Office hours: T 10am-11am, W 11am-12pm (4108 Sproul Hall) Phone: Website: Lecture 1 September 29,

3 Requirements and grading Two research ideas (due Oct. 28 and Nov. 25) 15% each. Two referee reports (due Oct. 14 and Nov. 11) 15% each. One presentation (to be scheduled later) 10%. One take-home final (December 9, 10 a.m.) 30%. Lecture 1 September 29,

4 Reports The referee report is a critical (but constructive) evaluation of an academic paper. The list of papers is available on the course website. Choose two out of three papers. The research ideas can cover any topic related in applied economics. Must have: goal and motivation in detail, (if possible) the model, data and methodology. Limit your writings to five pages per piece. Lecture 1 September 29,

5 Textbooks Aghion, P. and S. Durlauf, eds. (2005) Handbook of Economic Growth, Vol. 1A. North Holland [AD, HD75.5.H , available at Science Direct]. Banerjee, A., R. Bènabou, and D. Mookherjee (2006) Understanding Poverty. Oxford University Press. [BBM, HC79.P6 U ] Barro, R. and X. Sala-i-Martin (2004) Economic Growth. Second edition. MIT Press. [BSM] Rodrik, D. editor (2003) In Search of Prosperity: Analytic Narratives on Economic Growth Princeton University Press. [HD73.I ] D. Mookherjee and D. Ray (2001) Readings in the Theory of Economic Development. Blackwell Pubs. [HD75.R ]. Lecture 1 September 29,

6 Economic growth: measurement Lecture 1 September 29,

7 GDP per capita, PPP (constant 2000 international $) Relation between GDP percapita with PPP and US$: 2002 ZAR IRL USA NOR AUS AUT CHE BEL CAN DNK EMU FRA DEU FIN GBR HKG HICISL ESP CYP ISR ITA NLD SWE OEC JPN SGP NZL ARE CZE SYC MLT SVN PRT GRC KOR BHR KWT BHS HUN OMN SVK EST ARG KNA SAU LTU MUS HRV POL ZAF ATG BWALVA CHL TTO UMC MYS CRI MEX RUS BRA BGR ECA GRD COL DOM LAC URY WLD TON IRN ROM NAM THA TUN TUR BIH BLZ GAB CPV BLR KAZ MKD DZA MIC PAN WSM FJI DMALCA EAP CHNLMC MNA VCT VEN UKR LBN GUY SWZ PER PHLLMY ALB PRY SLV ECU EGY GTM JOR LKA MAR JAM ARM AZE NIC SYR IDN IND HND VUT VNM SAS LSO ZWE PNG BOL GEO GHAKHM GIN CMR COM LIC PAK AGO DJI GMBBGD HTI KGZLAOMNG SDN SSA MDA MRT UZB SEN CIV SLB NPL TGO UGA RWA BFA CAFLDC HPC ERI TCD MOZ BEN KEN TJK MLI NGA COG ETH ZMB YEM GNB NER MDG BDI SLE MWI TZA GDP per capita (constant 2000 US$) Source: WDI LUX Lecture 1 September 29,

8 Agriculture, value added (% of GDP) GDP per capita and agriculture: 2002 CAF GNB ZAR LAO SLE TZA ETH RWA SDN BDI NPL COM CMR MWI NER TCD TGOKGZ GHA MLI BEN UZB KHM MDG HPC NGABFA UGA GUY LDC KEN GMB HTI TON PNG ARM ALB TJK MOZ CIV GIN SYR MDA LIC PAK BGD VNM PRY ZMB GTM MNG SAS MRT GEO IND LKA SSA NIC DMA LSO IDN EGY MAR YEM SEN BOL VUTAZE PHL UKR FJI BLZ ZWE ERI HND EAP SWZ CHN BLR BIH COL LMY LMC MNAMKD TUR IRN BGR ROM DOM PER NAM ARG DZA GRD ISL AGO ECU SLV VCT MIC TUN THA KAZ ECA BRA URYCRI MYS HRV COG CPV GABLAC LBN PAN GRC JAM LCA LTU MUS RUS UMC CHL MEX LVA EST ATG POLSAU VEN WLD ZAF HUN KOR BWA CZE ARE ESP FIN JOR KNA SVK SVN PRT EMU ITA FRA AUS OMN SYC DNK BEL AUT NLD IRL TTO DEU JPN SWE GBR HIC OECCHE NOR KWT USA SGPHKG LUX GDP per capita, PPP (constant 2000 international $) Source: WDI Lecture 1 September 29,

9 GDP per capita and industry: 2002 Industry, value added (% of GDP) AGO COG DZA OMN BWA SAU AZE VEN ARE KWT SWZ MYS GAB PNG CHN NGA IDN EAP LSO MNA THA TTO IRL YEM LMC IRN TJK CHL VNM KAZ ROMBRA CZEKOR NOR GIN BLR MIC ARM EGY LMY UKR RUS SVN SGP LAC DOM ARG MRT HND JAM PHL SLV ZAF NAM UMC BOL COL ECA FIN SSA MAR MKD LTU MUS AUT GUY BGR CRI HRV HUN NIC PER KNA SYC JPN SYR TUN ESP DEU CHE MLI ECU BGD BIH EST ITA LIC KHM IND JOR WLD POL SVK PRT SWE EMU ZMB MOZ SAS LKA FJI MEX AUS GBR BEL HIC DNK ERI LDC OEC NLD SLE LAO GHAGEO PRY ISL KGZ LBNVCT URY MDA GRD CAF GRC HPC MNG PAK TUR LVA ZAR RWAUGA NPL UZB ATG CIV DMA FRA USA SEN SDN ZWE BLZ BDI GTM BFA TGO ALB LCA NER MWI TZA KEN HTI TCD CMR CPV PAN TON MDGETH BEN GMB GNB COM HKG VUT LUX GDP per capita, PPP (constant 2000 international $) Source: WDI Lecture 1 September 29,

10 GDP per capita and energy consumption: 2002 Energy use (kg of oil equivalent per capita) TZA ZAR UZB NGA ZWE MDA SSA ZMB AGO GEO KGZ VNM BOL HND IND TJKEN LIC SDNPAK SAS MOZ CMR CIV GHA HPC TGO NPL ETH YEM BEN LDC SEN HTI COG BGD PER LKA MAR ISL BHR ARE TTO KWT CAN USA FIN NOR SGPSWE SAU AUS BEL HIC OEC OMN NLD NZL RUS FRA CZEKOR DEU EMU JPN GBR DNK AUT CHE IRL ESTSVK SVN KAZ CYP ISR ESP ITA UKR ECA GRC BLR BGR UMCZAF LTU HUN PRT HKG VEN POL MYS IRN MLT HRV ROM LVA WLD CHL AZE JAM LBN MEX ARG MIC THA GAB MNA LAC JOR BIH TUR BRA SYR LMY CHN LMC DZA DOM EAP PAN CRI TUN IDN ECU EGY URY PRY ARM GTM ALB SLV COL NAM NIC PHL LUX GDP per capita, PPP (constant 2000 international $) Source: WDI Lecture 1 September 29,

11 Life expectancy at birth, total (years) GDP per capita and life expectancy: 2002 JPN HKG CHE ITA SWE AUS CAN CRI CYPESP FRA ISL GRCNZL MLT ARE ISRSGP EMU AUT DEU CHL FIN BEL HIC OEC NLD NOR GBR IRL DMA KWT PRT DNK USA SVN KOR ATG CZE PAN URY ECU MEX HRV ARG POL LKA BHR ALB LCA BIH OMN VEN SVK SYR MKDTUNGRD MYS SYC AZE BLZ COL HUN BGR ARM CHN DZA EST GEO JAM JOR LBN TON LAC LTU MUS SAU KNA PRY PHL SLV VCT BRA EGYEAP CPV IRN ROM LVA VNM NIC MAR LMC PER WSM MIC THA TTO BHS KGZ VUT MNA TUR UMC UKRBLR ECA MDA HND FJI UZB GTM DOM IDN WLD KAZ MNG LMY RUS TJK PAK BOL SASIND BGD GUY SLB NPL COM YEM LIC SDNGHA GMB KHM MDG SEN PNG TGO LAO GAB ERI BEN GIN MRT DJI COG LDC HTI HPC NAM MLI KEN BFA UGA ZAF TZA CIV SSACMR GNB NER BDI NGA TCD RWA SWZ ZAR ETH MOZ SLE AGO MWI CAF LUX ZMB ZWE LSO BWA GDP per capita, PPP (constant 2000 international $) Source: WDI Lecture 1 September 29,

12 Literacy rate, adult total (% of people ages 15 and above) TJK ARM AZE BLR EST KGZ ALB UKR KAZ LVALTU MDA BGR TON RUS SVK MNG HRV BIH ROM ECA ARG MKD CHL CRI PHL VEN COL UMC PAN THA VNM IDNECU LKA EAP CHN JOR LAC MEX MIC LMC BRA MYS PER BOL TUR DOM NAM MUS LSO ZAF BWA OMN HND SYRJAM LMYSWZ SAU NIC IRN KEN KHM VUT TUN MDG EGY MNA TZA GTM DZA ZMB LAO ZAR AGO CMR UGA MWI RWA BDI SLE NER MLI BEN TCD BFA HPC CAF TGO MRT NPLCIV SEN SDNLIC GHA PAK GIN IND SAS PNG MAR GRC CYP ISR ITA GDP per capita, PPP (constant 2000 international $) Source: WDI GDP per capita and literacy: 2004 KWT SYC MLT BHR SGP Lecture 1 September 29,

13 Urban population (% of total) GDP per capita and urban population: 2002 SGPHKG KWT BEL BHR MLT VEN URY ISR ISL ARG BHS GBR AUS LBN CHL NZL DJI DNK SWE BRA JOR GAB SAU KOR CAN USA NLD ARE LAC ESP FRA HIC OEC NOR MEX DEU RUS CZE EMU CHE PER DMA BLR COL UMC OMN BGR EST CYP UKR PAN LVA MKD LTU ITA TUR AUT ARM IRN HUN JPN TUN DOM BOL ECA MYS ECU DZA POL PHL FIN CRI COG SLV GRC IRL NIC ZAF MNG MAR PRY MNAKAZ CPV HRV SVK BWA PRT ROM AGO CMRGEO JAM GMB AZE MIC SYC SYR SVN FJI LMC BLZ WLD NGA MDA GHA HND GTM CIV IDN VCT ALB BIH EGY LMY MUS SEN MRT SLE BEN EAP CAF TGO UZB SDN CHN ATG HTI ZMB KGZCOM SSAPAK ZWE NAM MOZ GIN KNA ZAR THAGRD GNB MLI HPC LIC SASIND GUY LCA MDGYEM TJK LDC TCD VNM TZA BGD SWZ TON VUT WSM MWI KEN LAO ERI BFA KHM LSO NER ETH RWA SLB LKA NPL UGA PNG TTO BDI LUX GDP per capita, PPP (constant 2000 international $) Source: WDI Lecture 1 September 29,

14 Rank by human development index Comparing rankings by GDP per capita and HDI: 2003 Sweden Australia Iceland Norway Belgium Switzerland Canada Luxembourg Ireland United Finland Netherlands JapanUnited States Kingdom Denmark New Hong Czech BarbadosCyprus Korea, Portugal Greece Israel Spain Zealand Italy France Austria Kong, Germany China (SAR) Slovenia Singapore Rep. of Argentina Brunei Republic Malta Darussalam ChilePolandHungary Lithuania Estonia Slovakia Uruguay Costa Latvia PanamaBulgaria Tonga Mexico Seychelles Saint Rica Croatia Bahrain Kuwait United Qatar Arab Emirates Kitts and Bahamas Nevis Macedonia, TFYRAntigua Trinidad Romania Russian Malaysia and and Barbuda Tobago Bosnia Albania Dominica and Belarus Herzegovina Grenada Brazil Federation Mauritius Colombia Samoa Venezuela Saint (Western) Lucia Thailand Oman Ecuador Armenia Peru Ukraine Saudi Arabia Philippines Lebanon Kazakhstan Jordan Paraguay Saint China Vincent and the Grenadines Sri Lanka Fiji Belize Tunisia Jamaica Georgia Turkmenistan Dominican TurkeyRepublic Azerbaijan Iran, Islamic Rep. of Syrian Arab Republic El Salvador Algeria Uzbekistan Kyrgyzstan Viet Nam GuyanaCape Verde Moldova, Rep. Mongolia of Bolivia Nicaragua Indonesia Honduras Vanuatu Egypt Guatemala Tajikistan South Africa São Tomé and Solomon Principe Morocco Islands Lao Comoros Cambodia India Namibia Gabon Equatorial Guinea People s Dem. Nepal Bhutan Pakistan Rep. Botswana Congo BangladeshGhana Papua New Guinea Madagascar Uganda Togo Sudan Zimbabwe Yemen Kenya Haiti Mauritania Djibouti Cameroon Lesotho Swaziland Nigeria Eritrea Rwanda Senegal Gambia Guinea Tanzania, Congo, Malawi U. Rep. Burundi Dem. Rep. Zambia of Benin Angola Côte d Ivoire of Guinea Bissau Ethiopia Mozambique the Central African Sierra Leone Mali Niger Burkina Chad Republic Faso Rank by GDP per capita, PPP (constant US$) Source: Human development report 2005 Lecture 1 September 29,

15 Economic growth: facts Lecture 1 September 29,

16 Income disparities (Durlauf et. al 2005) Table 1: International Disparities in GDP per Worker Country Population(m, 2000) R1960 R2000 USA United Kingdom Argentina France Italy South Africa Mexico Spain Iran Colombia Japan Brazil Turkey Philippines Egypt Korea, Republic of Bangladesh Nigeria Indonesia Thailand Pakistan India China Ethiopia Mean Median Notes: - R is GDP per worker as a fraction of that in the USA. Lecture 1 September 29,

17 Figure 2: Output Per Worker: 1960 versus 2000 Relative GDP per worker Log GDP per worker relative to USA, 2000 USA HKG SGP AUT ITA BEL NOR FIN FRA DNK NLD TWN ESP ISR GBR SWE AUS CAN KOR CYP JPN PRT GRC MUS MYS TTO CHL BWA MEX ARG ZAF URY BRA IRN GAB VEN SYR TUR DOMPAN JOR NAM FJI EGY THA GTM SLV CRI MAR ECU COL GUY PRY PER ROM IDN PHL LKA PAK CHN IND BGD PNGGIN HND JAM BOL ZWE NIC CIV CMR COG LSO NPL SEN GMB KEN BEN GHA MRT TCD ZMB MWI UGA BFA TGO MOZ AGO MDG MLI RWA NER CAF GNB ETH NGA TZA BDI ZAR Log GDP per worker relative to USA, 1960 Lecture 1 September 29,

18 Economic miracles: (Durlauf et. al 2005) Country Growth Factor increase Taiwan Botswana Hong Kong Korea, Republic of Singapore Thailand Cyprus Japan Ireland China Romania Mauritius Malaysia Portugal Indonesia Lecture 1 September 29,

19 Economic disasters: (Durlauf et. al 2005) Country Growth Ratio Peru Mauritania Senegal Chad Mozambique Madagascar Zambia Mali Venezuela Niger Nigeria Nicaragua Central African Republic Angola Congo, Democratic Rep Lecture 1 September 29,

20 Unpredictable growth?: (Durlauf et. al 2005) Unpredictable growth? Growth, CHN MUS KOR TWN HKG IRL CYP THA MYS UGA IND BGD ROM SGP LKA PAKIDN GNBNPL PRT CHL NOR EGY DOM TUR FIN JPN BFA GBR DNK USA ISR BEL AUT CAN AUSIRN FRA ITA GIN SWE MWI SYR ESP BEN NLD LSO NZL GUY MAR BRA GRC MOZ SEN SLV FJI ETH NAM URY CHE GMB MEXTTO PNGZAF PAN COG JAM CRI PHLGTM GAB NER ARG GHA KEN JOR MDG RWA HND COL TZA CMR CIV PRY ECU ZWE VEN BDI MLI ZMB BOLTGO PER TCD CAF AGO NIC NGA MRT BWA Growth, Lecture 1 September 29,

21 Summary: growth facts Between the relative distribution of world income seems stable. The rich countries remain rich and the poor remain poor. However, there are miracles and disasters. Is this evidence against poverty traps? Is growth predictable? Lecture 1 September 29,

22 Economic growth: explanations Lecture 1 September 29,

23 Figure 1. Income per person, 1995(with sub-national data for 19 countries) Tropic of Cancer Tropic of Capricorn GDPPPP1995 $465-1,999 $2,000-4,999 $5,000-9,999 $10,000-15,999 $16,000-44,000 No data Note: GDP PPP = 1995Gross Domestic Product per person in purchasing power parity international dollars. Lecture 1 September 29,

24 Malaria risk- 1946, 1966, 1994 Tropic of Cancer Tropic of Capricorn High risk of Malaria Lecture 1 September 29,

25 Latitude and income (Acemoglu et. al). Log GDP per capita, PPP, in SGP CHE HKG NOR QAT JPN AUT AUS FRA BEL DNK CAN DEU NLD FIN ISL ITA IRL GBR SWE ARE ISR GRC ESP NZL KOR BRB PRT BHSBHR KWT MLT ARG CZE SAU SVN HUN MUS CHL EST MYS SVK MEX URY TTO OMN LBY ZAF POL BLR FJI LTU LVA RUS GAB BRA CRI THAKNA BWA IRNTUN TUR COL VEN PAN DOM DZA BGRHRV ROMKAZ PER GUY LCA PRY GEO GRD PHL DMA SLV GTM NAM SWZ JAM EGY JOR MAR CHN TKM UKR BLZ ECU IDNLKA SYR VCT BTN AZE NICHND BOL LSO ARM MDA PNG IRQ UZB ZWE IND YUG GHA VNM MRT PAK CMR CAF CIV SEN BGD BIH KEN TGO CPV HTI NPL GIN MMR UGA STP GMBSDN TJK COG LBR BEN BFATCD MOZ NGA DJI GNB MWI NER YEM ZMBMLI RWA TZA COM AGO MDG AFG ZAR BDI ETH SLE SOM Latitude USA LUX Lecture 1 September 29,

26 Pritchett (1997) How did the world income distribution evolved since 1870? How did the rich countries growth? How did the poor countries growth? Is evidence presented by Pritchett consistent with the geography hypothesis? Lecture 1 September 29,

27 Expropriation and income (Acemoglu et. al). Log GDP per capita, PPP, in ZAR HTI SDN MLI KWT ARE BHR MLT GRC BHS CHL OMN SAU ARG URY VEN MEX BWA GAB PAN ZAF MYS CRI COL TTOTHA BRA IRN TUR POL TUN ECU PER DOM DZA ROM GTM JORPRYJAM PHL SUR SYR MAR IDN SLV BOL GUY EGY CHN AGO HND ZWE LKA NIC CMR COG SEN CIV GHA GIN PAK VNM MNG TGO KEN UGA MDG BFA BGD NGA ZMB NER YEM MOZ MWI QAT HKG GMB IND ISR RUS KOR CZE HUN BGR LUX USA SGP CHE BEL DNK CAN AUT JPN FRA NOR AUSITA ISL SWE FIN GBR NLD NZL IRL ESP PRT 6 SLE ETH TZA Avg. Protection Against Risk of Expropriation, Lecture 1 September 29,

28 Corruption and income (Acemoglu et. al). Log GDP per capita, PPP, in VEN ARG COL PAN MEX THA LBN TUR ECU DOM RUS BGRHRV ROM PER KAZ LVA JAM IDN PHL BOL EGY CHN UKR ARM ZWE LKA NGA TZA PAK GEO KEN ZMB UGA MDGBFA MLI MOZ GHA SEN VNM IND MWI SVK BRA TUN KOR LTU JOR MAR CZE URY ZAF MYS HUN POL BEL JPN ITA SGP CHE CANDNK NLD SWE FIN NZL Control of Corruption GRC SVN CHL USA HKG FRA AUT NOR AUS DEU GBR ISR IRL ESP PRT Lecture 1 September 29,

29 Reversal of fortune 1 (Acemoglu et. al). 10 USA CAN AUS SGP HKG NZL GDP per capita, PPP, in CHL ARG URY VEN BRA PRY GUY DOM JAM PHL MYS COL PAN CRI BLZ GTM IDN SLV LKA HND NIC ECU PER BOL TUN DZA MEX EGY MAR 7 HTI VNM LAO PAK IND BGD Urbanization in 1500 Lecture 1 September 29,

30 Reversal of fortune 2 (Acemoglu et. al). 10 CAN AUS USA SGP HKG NZL GDP per capita, PPP, in ARG URY BWA BRA NAM SUR GUY CHL BHS BRB VEN ZAF MYS KNA GAB MEX COL PAN TTO CRI LCA ECU TUN DOM GRD PER DMA BLZ DZA VCT GTM PRY JAM SWZ PHL IDN MAR CPV BOL SLV AGO ZWE HND LKA CMR NIC GIN COG MRTCOM CIV LSO GHA SEN GMB SDN PAK IND HTI CAF TGO VNM LAO KEN BEN UGA NPL TCD MDG BFA BGD ZMB ZAR NGA NER MLI ERI BDI MWI MOZ RWA EGY TZA SLE Log Population Density in 1500 Lecture 1 September 29,

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