International Investment Patterns. Philip R. Lane WBI Seminar, Paris, April 2006
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1 International Investment Patterns Philip R. Lane WBI Seminar, Paris, April 2006
2 Introduction What determines aggregate capital inflows and outflows? What determines bilateral patterns in international investment? Role of Institutions and Policies Lessons from recent literature Case study: China and India Case study: Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) Challenges for macroeconomic policy; the adjustment process
3 Level of International Financial Integration Increasing in income per capita Increasing in trade openness - complementarity Increasing in domestic financial development Increasing in external account liberalization
4 Panel Analysis of financial integration, (Dep. Var.: change in financial integration) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) External Liberalization (3.69)*** (.5) (.36) (.5) (.2) Trade openness (3.62)*** (4.88)*** (3.37)*** (4.58)*** Log GDP per capita (2.74)*** (3.65)*** (5.06)*** Stock market capitalization (18.3)*** (17.4)*** Adjusted R Number of obs
5 Net Creditors versus Net Debtors Level of income per capita Demographic factors Level of public debt
6 Institutions Good institutions lead to: Greater financial integration Greater ability to attract capital inflows Improved quality of inflows more portfolio equity, more FDI, more bonds Improved quality of outflows less capital flight; lower need to hold reserves Lower spreads Institutional mix: general versus financial
7 Bilateral Investment Patterns What explains why country A invests in country B? Country A s propensity to invest overseas Country B s general attractiveness as a destination Bilateral linkages between A and B Important for investor base Important for transmission of shocks Important for risk analysis Important for asset pricing and return comovements
8 Bilateral Linkages Optimal diversification has a bilateral dimension Trade risk GDP / return risk Information frictions Gravity variables (Distance, Language, Colonial Ties ) Also Trade volume Bilateral trading costs Bilateral exchange rate stability, language, common institutional framework etc
9 Main Findings Asset holdings significantly correlated with trade linkages Distance also matters (more so for FDI, banks than portfolio flows) Institutional similarity Asset holdings less influenced by return hedging factors Strong impact of currency union (EMU) on equity; portfolio debt More generally, regional policies matter
10 The International Financial Integration of China and India
11 Introduction Goal: quantitative profile of the IFI of China and India Current situation; future evolution Volume-based approach: EWN II; CPIS; BIS; national sources Net positions Gross holdings of foreign assets and liabilities External capital structure Geographical distribution Currency composition
12 Outline The International Balance Sheets of China and India: A Profile The Future Evolution of Capital Flows Macroeconomic Policy and International Financial Integration Conclusions
13 Net Foreign Asset Positions 10 China India
14 XS of NFA Positions 100 NAM BW A SAU 50 YEM NFA to GDP TZA IRN DZA MUS SW Z VEN TKM CHN RUS MYS KOR IND BIH ZAF GTM BFA ALB NPL EGY UKR BLR SVN UZB MAR JOR ISR PRY URY KEN BGD THA SEN PAK MKD COLROM LTUSVK CZE NGA CMR CHL KHM TJK ARM GABTUR MEX BGR HND IDN BRA CRI ARG SYR LVA POL MLI UGA LKA PER MDA VNM PHL DOM ETH SLV KAZ HRV MOZ RWA JAM TTO CIV GEO KGZGIN PNG ECU MDG TGO GHA PAN SDNAGOBOL HUN TCD NIC AZE LBN TUN ZMB EST LAO GDP per capita, PPP
15 World s Largest Creditors and Debtors Country NFA/GDPW NFA/GDPW Japan 4.34 India Switzerland 1.25 Argentina Taiwan 1.06 New Zealand Hong Kong 1.05 Hungary United Arab Emirates 0.54 Portugal Germany 0.54 Indonesia Singapore 0.46 Canada Norway 0.40 Poland Saudi Arabia 0.39 Turkey China 0.32 Greece Kuwait 0.31 United Kingdom France 0.27 Mexico Belgium 0.27 Brazil Libya 0.16 Italy Qatar 0.15 Australia Iran, Islamic Republic o 0.12 Spain Luxembourg 0.09 United States -6.49
16 IFI/GDP China India
17 XS of IFI/GDP 400 LBN 350 PAN 300 URY EST 250 IFI to GDP TZA SYR AZE JAM MYS ARG NAM ISR CHL JOR HRV LVA KGZAGO KHM HND HUN CIVTGOLAOGHA PNG BOL KAZ BGR NIC VEN CZE ZMB TUN ETH BIH SVK MDG RWA SVN MDA SWZ NGA MOZ TTO YEM EGY UGA SDN MAR PHL TCD SLV BWA RUSZAF MLI SEN GIN MKD THA POL VNM GEO ECU PER DOM SAU ARM CHNUKR LTU KOR NPL UZB IDNLKA COL PRY TUR BRA DZA ROM GAB CRIMUS TJK MEX PAK KEN CMR BFA GTM ALB IND TKM BGD IRN BLR GDP per capita, PPP
18 XS: Foreign Assets / GDP JOR SEN URY Foreign assets to GDP SW Z PAN LAO AGO EGY SAU VEN ARGLBN SVK ISR SDN CHL JAM MKD BGD MDA EST HRV HND KGZ UZB SYR ARM VNM LTU CZE TJK GEO ZAF MLI MUS ID N MOZ BEN GIN KAZ SGP BGR TKM NGA RW TZAA GAB DZAZMB PAK SVNCYP LVA PRY TTO MAR MYS TUN BOL SLV CHN COL UKR HUN DOM NIC PER KEN MDG PNG POL BIH TUR BRA THA HKGIN D KHM GTM BLR TGO BFA KORNPL ETH CIVUGA MEX CRI RUS NAM BW GHAA ALB ECU YEM CMR AZE IR N GDP per capita, PPP
19 XS: Official Reserves / GDP 60 JOR AGO LAO VNM 50 ISR EGY Reserves 40 TJK KGZ CZE MUS 30 MKD SGP ID N HND MLI LTU UZB HRV KAZ CYP TTO MOZ MYS CHN IR N SW Z SAU JAM GEOPOLURY MDA 20 BEN MAR TUN UKR BGD SVN RW BGRA GAB HKG SYR MDG BLRPER NGA SVK COG GIN TZA ZMB THA PNGPRY VEN CHL HUN LVA NIC IN D PAK TKM EST BIH UGA SDN TGO ARM GTM SLV COL KEN NPL KHM TUR ARG LBN 10 CIV CRI KOR BOL ALB BRA MEX RUS NAM DZA SEN BFA YEMBW ETH CMR A ZAF PAN TCD GHA ECU DOM AZE GDP per capita, PPP
20 Global Distribution of Official Reserves Share in Global Country Reserves Japan China Taiwan 5.91 Euro Area 5.41 Korea 5.13 India 3.26 Hong Kong 3.19 Russia 3.11 Singapore 2.89 United States 1.96 Malaysia 1.71 Mexico 1.65 Switzerland 1.43 Brazil 1.36 Thailand 1.25
21 Share in Global Equity Liabilities FDI Liab Share China FDI Liab Share India Port Eq Liab Share Chin Port Eq Liab Share India
22 Share in Global Debt Liabilities Debt Liab China Debt Liab India
23 China: Net Equity and Net Debt China NETEQ China NETDE
24 India: Net Equity and Net Debt India NET India NET
25 Debt Shares in Foreign Assets and Liabilities China D_SH_A China D_SH_L India D_SH_A India D_SH_L
26 FDI Share in Foreign Equity Assets and Liabilities China FDI_EQ_FA China FDI_EQ_FL India FDI_EQ_FA India FDI_EQ_FL
27 China s FDI Liabilities Share World 100 Hong Kong SAR 45 United States 8.9 Japan 8.7 Taiwan POC 7.4 British Virgin Islands 6.9 Korea 4.8 Singapore 4.8 United Kingdom 2.3 Germany 1.8 France 1.3 Other 8.2
28 India s FDI liabilities Share Mauritius 35.6 United States 16.5 Japan 6.9 Netherlands 6.9 UK 6.6 Germany 4.4 Singapore 3.1 France 2.7 Korea 2.2 Switzerland 2 Other 13.2 Total 100
29 Sources of Portfolio Investment China India Equity Debt Equity Debt World World United States United States EU EU Japan Japan Singapore Singapore Hong Kong SAR Mauritius ROW ROW
30 Pattterns in BIS Banking Data China India Inward Outward Inward Outward Europe UK Japan US Hong Kong SAR Total
31 China: Bilateral Regressions FDI Portfolio Portfolio Bank Equity Debt Liabilities Size (7.0)*** (3.68)*** (2.31)** (.54) Trade (2.59)** (.62) (1.96)* (1.88)* Distance (1.93)* (1.04) (4.69)** (.47) ERVOL (.17) (4.3)*** (6.94)*** (.78) Adj R N
32 India: Bilateral Regressions FDI Portfolio Portfolio Bank Equity Debt Liabilities Size (6.22)*** (3.0)*** (.37) (.48) Trade (2.7)** (1.7) (1.01) (.15) Distance (1.15) (1.05) (.18) (.33) ERVOL (.61) (3.27)*** (.32) (.51) Adj R N
33 Currency Composition of Debt Liabilities China India Dollar Euro Yen Sterling Swiss Franc
34 The Future Evolution of Capital Flows Depends on domestic financial reforms Depends on world market conditions NFA Level of IFI External Capital Structure Bilateral Patterns Currency Composition
35 China and India: Projected GDP relative to G-7 China India
36 Macroeconomic Policy Exchange Rate Regime Banking Reform Transformation of reserves Increase in macroeconomic volatility Valuation Channel
37 Capital flows to Emerging Europe
38 Objective Put trends in external capital flows and their composition in perspective (compare CEE with EU15, other emerging mkts) Provide simple calculations on sustainable future capital flows Draw implications for future trade surpluses
39 Road map Capital flows and external position: stylized facts ( ) Bilateral exposure Implications for medium-term factor flows
40 Capital flows Large! Initial liabilities very small (except Bul, Hun, Pol) Strong growth prospects Obsolete capital
41 External liabilities in 1994 were small Swaziland Net external position in 1994 (percent of GDP) NFA/GDP Latvia Slovak Republic Romania Namibia Paraguay Lithuania Estonia Russia Mauritius Iran Lebanon Colombia South Africa Guatemala El Salvador Macedonia Brazil Kazakhstan Fiji Poland Turkey Costa Rica Chile Bulgaria Egypt Thailand Morocco Jamaica Dominican Rep. Algeria Peru MalaysiaHungary Panama Czech Republic Venezuela, Rep. Bol. Uruguay Mexico Slovenia Argentina -80 Ecuador Jordan -100 Trinidad and Tobago Syria Tunisia Gabon GDP per capita
42 ...but MUCH larger at end Iran Algeria Mauritius Venezuela, Rep. Bol. Net external position (pct of GDP), Russia Malaysia Oman NFA/GDP South Africa Albania Guatemala Belarus Egypt Jordan Uruguay Paraguay Thailand Macedonia Romania Slovak Republic Czech Republic Colombia Lithuania Chile Turkey Gabon Mexico Bulgaria Costa Rica Brazil Peru Latvia Poland Kazakhstan Dominican Republic El Salvador Croatia Jamaica Argentina Trinidad and Tobago Slovenia Portugal Ecuador Tunisia Panama Lebanon Hungary Estonia GDP per capita
43 International financial integration is increasing EU Other emerging markets 100 CEE countries
44 ...with equity liabilities playing a more important role CEE countries Other em. mkts EU
45 ...and particularly so FDI CEE countries 35 Other em. mkts EU
46 50 40 CEE countries FX share Equity share Reserves play an important role among external assets, more so than elsewhere EU 15 Equity share FX share Other emerging and developing economies FX share Equity share
47 In most CEE countries net equity liabilities are larger than net debt 30 Czech Republic net debt (pct of GDP) Slovak Republic Bulgaria Romania Slovenia Estonia Lithuania -10 Poland Latvia -20 Hungary Croatia net equity (pct of GDP)
48 Returns on external liabilities Returns on FDI are linked to economic performance (high when the economy does well, low otherwise) This implies better risk-sharing relative to foreign-currency debt......and can help productivity growth......but the price is a higher cost
49 Financial integration with the EU is particularly strong Sources of FDI (2002) EMU UK US DEN SWE SWI. CEEC Bulgaria Croatia Czech Republic Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania Poland Romania Slovakia Slovenia
50 Implications for future flows External liabilities cannot grow faster than GDP forever... Sustainable flows imply a stable ratio of net external liabilities to GDP... For example, with 8% nominal growth and liabilities of 50% of GDP, the CA balance would be -4% SS ca ( g +π ) NFA t t SS
51 Does this imply that large capital inflows can persist without any adjustment? Not quite. As liabilities accumulate, investment income payments to foreigners increase To keep the CA from deteriorating, the trade balance (broadly defined) must improve......because servicing external debt and FDI is costly
52 ...and the improvement must be large... Trade balance (average ) NFAstabilizing trade balance Implied current account balance (baseline) Bulgaria Czech Republic Slovak Republic Estonia Latvia Hungary Lithuania Poland
53 What can countries do? Strengthen export growth (and hope for recovery in the euro area!) Contain budget deficits (that contribute to widening current account imbalances) Be prepared for leaner times on global capital markets
54 Upside and downside risks Credible policies and integration with EU can lower spreads, implying more favorable debt dynamics... But there is limited scope for exchange rate correction to ease the trade balance adjustment, at least with current exchange rate regimes
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