Institutional Change and Growth-Enabling Governance Capabilities

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1 Institutional Change and Growth-Enabling Governance Capabilities Nicolas Meisel Strategy and Research Dept - French Development Agency (AFD) Jacques Ould Aoudia Treasury and Economic Policy Directorate - Ministry of the Economy 1

2 First, What are we trying to measure? 2 big ways of regulating a social system informal rules and interpersonal relationships (Limited Access Order) formal rules and de-personalised (or impersonal) institutions (Open Access Order) 2 asymetric mechanisms de-personalisation of social regulation systems effort to formalise rules and detach institutional functions from persons Social Instability 2

3 What do our data say? (1) An Original Database Institutional Profiles Survey completed in 2006 ; 85 countries (90% of the world GDP and pop) ; 356 elementary variables 9 institutional functions: 1. political institutions ; 2. safety and order ; 3. administration effectiveness; 4. markets operating freedom ; 5. coordination of actors and strategic vision ; 6. security of transactions and contracts ; 7. regulation of competition and corporate governance ; 8. openness ; 9. social cohesion Available at 3

4 What do our data say? (2) An original Statistical Tool: Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) Why this tool? multi-criteria analysis tool. 1st need. let the data speak for themselves. 2nd need. Exploratory Data Analysis: refined descriptive statistics 4

5 What do our data say? (3) Results (i) What is Good governance?......nothing else than the arrival point of the long process of rules formalisation. (ii) Good Governance is highly correlated with Income Levels... (iii)... but not with Income Growth What s the missing factor, what are the other governance capabilities explaining these growth differentials? 5

6 (i) What is «Good Governance»?... Nord-Ouest : paternalisme-autoritaire autoritarian-paternalism Etat - sécurité / State - security Nord-Est : libéralisme tempéré mild liberalism CUB SYR IRN 7 sociétés où les règles sont fondées sur le lien / community-based societies VNM CHN TUN UZB SAU THA RUS ZWE EGY DZA BWA ETH MRT YEM CMR BFA MLI NGA TCD NER VEN UKR KAZ IDN MOZ BGD PAK MAR CIV MDG KHM PER BEN TUR ARG GAB IND POL ESP ZAF MEX GHA -1 COL GRC JOR LKA KEN SEN LTU DOM BGR PRT CHL LBN UGA GTM BOL KWT -3 PHL SGP MYS TAI NOR KOR JPN ISR DEU MUS BRA ITA FRA ROM SWE CZE HUN EST NZL GBR USA HKG CAN IRL sociétés où les règles sont fondées sur le droit / law-based societies Sud-Ouest : informel informal -5 libertés / freedom Sud-Est : libéralisme pur pure liberalism 6

7 (ii) «Good governance» is linked to the level of income y = 0,2651x + 7,9346 R 2 = 0,7072 Niveau de développement (PIB par tête en log) SYR MRT TCD EGY YEM UZB MLI KWT SAU MEX LBN GAB RUS VEN BWA MYS TUR IRN TUN 8 PER THA ROM GTM CUB DZA KAZ JOR MAR CHN DOM COL UKR IDN PHL 7 CMR CIV BOL PAK ZWE SEN IND NGA VNM KEN BGD BEN GHA 6 BFA KHM MDG UGA MOZ NER PRT TAI KOR MUS POL ARG ZAF BRA BGR LKA ITA LTU SGP ESP GRC CHL USA JPN FRA HKG NZL ISR CZE HUN EST NOR GBR CAN SWE IRL DEU ETH "bonne gouvernance" Niveau de formalisation des règles (coordonnées de l'axe 1 de l'acp) 7

8 (iii) but NOT to the speed of income growth Performance économique (croissance du produit par travailleur) 7% 5% 3% 1% -1% performance économique MRT TCD SYR CHN KAZ RUS TAI EST BWA LTU VNM HKG IND SGP THA MYS KHM BGD MUS LKA KOR CZE UKR IDN USA NZL POL MLI BFA CHL DOM PAK ROM HUN ETH NOR TUR ISR TUN UZB MOZ PRT ESP CMR EGY BGR GRC FRA ITA BEN GHA UGA CUB NGA PER JPN YEM BOL COL SEN ZAF IRN MAR PHL MEX GTM ARG SAU KEN CIV LBN JOR NER MDG DZA GAB BRA y = 0,0009x + 0,0163 R 2 = 0,061 IRL GBR CAN DEU SWE ZWE VEN KWT "bonne gouvernance" -3% Niveau de formalisation des règles (coordonnées de l'axe 1 de l'acp) 8

9 What explaining factor? Performance économique (croissance du produit par travailleur) 7% 5% 3% 1% -1% -3% CHN KAZ 2? RUS TAI EST BWA LTU 3 VNM HKG IND SGP THA MYS KHM BGD MUS LKA KOR CZE UKR IDN POL USA NZL MLI BFA CHL DOM PAK ROM HUN ETH TUR ISR NOR TUN UZB MOZ PRT ESP CMR EGY BGR GRC FRA MRT ITA BEN GHA UGA CUB NGA PER JPN YEM BOL COL SEN ZAF TCD IRN MAR PHL MEX GTM ARG? SYR SAU KEN CIV BRA LBN JOR 1NER MDG DZA GAB VEN KWT ZWE performance économique y = 0,0009x + 0,0163 R 2 = 0,061 IRL GBR CAN DEU SWE Niveau de formalisation des règles (coordonnées de l'axe 1 de l'acp) "bonne gouvernance" 9

10 Discovering the Growth-enabling Governance Capabilities (1) Group 1 (DV) vs Group 2 (CV) (p36) Coordination and strategic vision. Quality of basic public goods and security of agricultural transactions and PR. Group 2 vs Group 3 (developed) (p37) Coordination and strategic vision of actors is not a discriminating factor. The most discriminating variables = good governance agenda = Security of transactions + control of corruption + Administration efficiency + transparency. Group 1 vs Group 3 (p38) In fact, almost everything. Yet, it is the standard good governance prescription. 10

11 Discovering the Growth-enabling Governance Capabilities (2) Why do these capacities generate higher growth in group 2? make up for the destabilisation of the social order create cooperation-contingent rents targeting key particular interest groups to align their interests on desirable common goals curb uncertainty, thus reducing transaction costs, stabilizing expectations of actors and lengthening their horizons instrumental to high and sustained rates of investment and growth Governance Focal Monopoly 11

12 Further Steps and Practical implications The good governance agenda has turned around a unique dimension, a unidimensional set of measures and prescriptions which say: get formal rules, get formal institutions, as they function in rich countries. Broaden the scope of good governance with 2 new dimensions and sets of measures: coordination and anticipation openess of social orders 12

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