Outline 4/22/2011. Koc University April, 2011
|
|
- Emma Bailey
- 8 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 4/22/211 Koc University April, 211 Outline Main messages Crisis experience and focus Reserves trends Review of existing approaches Proposed new approach and metric Cost of reserves Reserve alternatives Conclusions 2 1
2 4/22/211 Main messages Crisis reinforces message that reserves matter, but with diminishing returns However, clear guidance is lacking on how much are needed Traditional metrics and newer approaches give wide range of answers Proposed hybrid approach and new risk-weighted metric may be a (modest) improvement But reserves are only part of the story Main Messages 3 Reserves have mattered in past crises, Difference from pre-crisis average Consumption growth: Impact of EMP "Crisis" Years from "Crisis" RES/STD < 5 RES/STD 5-1 RES/STD 1-15 RES/STD > 15 Crisis Experience and Focus 4 2
3 4/22/211 in part due to the fiscal space they provided. Difference from pre-crisis average Cyclically adjusted primary balance: Impact of EMP "Crisis" Years from "Crisis" RES/STD < 5 RES/STD 5-1 RES/STD 1-15 RES/STD > 15 Crisis Experience and Focus 5 Reserve loss varied considerably during the recent crisis, 12 Percent of GDP Q1 28Q4-12 LBN THA ISR JOR PAN CHN CZE ZAF CRI SLV URY COL GTM ARG PHL CHL MEX TUR IDN LTU VNM PAK EST HUN BRA IND ROM MAR POL KAZ HRV BIH PER KOR ARM VEN LKA SRB ECU LVA MYS BGR UKR RUS Crisis Experience and Focus 6 3
4 4/22/211 but short-term debt was not a good predictor. 5 Percent of GDP Short-term debt LBN THA ISR JOR PAN CHN CZE ZAF CRI SLV URY COL GTM ARG PHL CHL MEX TUR IDN LTU VNM PAK EST HUN BRA IND ROM MAR POL KAZ HRV BIH PER KOR ARM VEN LKA SRB ECU LVA MYS BGR UKR RUS Crisis Experience and Focus 7 We focus on precautionary reserves How much reserves should emerging market countries hold for precautionary reasons? Crisis prevention Crisis mitigation Not directly discussing non-precautionary motivations Intergenerational savings Exchange rate policy } about NFA, not reserves Externalities arising from reserves/nfa accumulation Reserves concern liquidity Crisis Experience and Focus 8 4
5 4/22/211 Why do countries hold reserves? Reserve Trends 9 Reserves growth has outpaced traditional metrics 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 ALL EM ($bn) Reserves 2% of Broad Money 1% of STD 3 Months of Imports Reserve Trends 1 5
6 4/22/211 in all regions. 1, 9 8 EUR EM ($bn) 35 3 MCD EM ($bn) % of Broad Money 1% of STD 3 Months of Imports Months of Imports 2% of Broad Money 1% of STD WHD EM ($bn) 4,5 4, APD EM ($bn) 5 4 2% of Broad Money 3,5 3, 2,5 2% of Broad Money % of STD 3 Months of Imports 2, 1,5 1, 5 3 Months of Imports 1% of STD Reserve Trends Reserves and alternate metrics 1% 9% 8% 3mths imports 1% of short-term debt 2% of M2 Wijnholds/Kapteyn Jeanne-Ranciere (standardized) Reserves demand model 7% 6% Reserves/GDP 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % SVK SVN ECU DOM BLR VEN PAK COL LKA ZAF ATG TUR IDN MEX MNE PAN CRI AZE ARE CHL BRA ARG SLV HND GTM GAB VNM JAM EGY BLZ ALB LTU AGO POL GEO SYC MDV IND URY MUS CZE UKR HRV ARM MKD BIH KAZ PRY PHL KNA TUN PER MAR MNG ROM EST KOR SYR ISR RUS MDA BGR LVA HUN SRB JOR BOL CHN MYS THA IRQ LBN DZA TKM LBY Review of Existing Approaches 12 6
7 4/22/ ranges for selected metrics 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % SVK SVN ECU DOM BLR VEN PAK COL LKA ZAF ATG TUR IDN MEX MNE PAN CRI AZE ARE CHL BRA ARG SLV HND GTM GAB VNM JAM EGY BLZ ALB LTU AGO POL GEO SYC MDV IND URY MUS CZE UKR HRV ARM MKD BIH KAZ PRY PHL KNA TUN PER MAR MNG ROM EST KOR SYR ISR RUS MDA BGR LVA HUN SRB JOR BOL CHN MYS THA IRQ LBN DZA TKM LBY Review of Existing Approaches 13 What approaches are used? (percent of total respondents) % 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% TRADITIONAL METRICS Ratio to imports Ratio to ST debt at r.m. Ratio to monetary aggregates SCENARIOS/COMBINATION RULES PEER COMPARISON OPTIMALITY MODELS Review of Existing Approaches 14 7
8 4/22/211 Are country reserves adequate? 1% 91% (of total respondents) 75% 5% 25% % 9% % % % Very Somewhat About right Somewhat Significantly inadequate inadequate higher than higher than needed needed Review of Existing Approaches 15 Possible new approach New combination metric proposal Identify risk-weighted liability stock Estimate reserve holdings needed against this stock Supplement with scenario analysis Future work can consider imbedding in a cost-benefit framework Attractive in principle, hard to apply in practice 16 8
9 4/22/211 4 BoP flows in crisis: Brazil 3 2 Percent of GDP Capital flight Short-term debt Equity liabilities Short-term debt 98Q1 98Q2 98Q3 98Q4 99Q1 99Q2 99Q3 8Q1 8Q2 8Q3 8Q4 9Q1 9Q2 9Q3 9Q BoP flows in crisis: Russia Stock of reserves Percent of GDP Percent of GDP Capital flight Short-term debt Capital flight -4 Short-term debt -9 98Q1 98Q2 98Q3 98Q4 99Q1 8Q1 8Q2 8Q3 8Q4 9Q1 9Q2 9Q3 9Q
10 4/22/211 Tail risks from past crises guide risk weights Broad Money Float Probability density 1th percentiles Fixed Source: WEO Percent change 19...across different potential losses Probability density 1th percentile Float Broad Money Fixed Probability density 1th percentile Float Exports Fixed Percent change Percent change Short-term debt (RM) Float Other liabilities Probability density 1th percentile Float Probability density 1th percentile Fixed Fixed Percent change In percent of other liabilities 2 1
11 4/22/211 We base a risk-weighted liability stock on the above FX drains. Based on the 1 th percentile of historical outflows: Pegs: 3 percent of STD, plus 15 percent of other external liabilities (excl. FDI), plus 1 percent of broad money, plus 1 percent of exports Floats: 3 percent of STD, plus 1 percent of other external liabilities (excl. FDI), plus 5 percent of broad money, plus 5 percent of exports 21 But outperforms them in predicting pressure. Logit Analysis: Probability of External Pressure (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Exchange Market Pressure events Crisis events Alternate Metric -.784** *** *** *** *** *** -1.27** -1.54*** CAPB Res/ST Debt 1.4E-4 Res/Broad Money -2.88E-4** Res/mths of imports.14 Res/Wijnholds-Kapteyn.372 Max(STD,BM,M)/GDP Constant -2.25*** *** *** *** *** *** *** -3.35*** 22 11
12 4/22/211 In the second stage, we need to judge how much coverage is adequate. Percent EMP event probability (for zero cyclically adjusted primary balance) Change in real consumption (percent) Consumption drops in crisis Lagged Reserves / New Metric (in percent) Source: Staff calculations Lagged Reserves / New metric (in percent) Source: WEO and staff calculations. 23 Around one-third of countries are within 1-15 percent of the metric. 3% Reserves against risk-weighted metric (reserves as percent of metric, 21) 25% 2% 15% suggested adequacy range 1% 5% % PAN ECU BLR DOM LTU LVA CRI JAM VEN HRV UKR ZAF TUR HND TUN BGR ARG CHL GEO SLV PAK MYS BIH MEX HUN EGY AGO IDN MAR POL MUS KAZ BRA GTM ROM MDA PRY COL CHN URY RUS IND SRB PHL ARM THA PER BOL Source: WEO and staff calculations
13 4/22/211 Reserves demand regression suggest similar factors. 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% Contributions to cumulative reserves increase Residual (percent of GDP) Peg Past Crisis Portfolio Liability/GDP Broad Money/GDP Export volatility Lending rate differential Partmers' growth volatility Terms of trade volatility Import/GDP Reserve/GDP 2% % -2% * * out of sample prediction Source: WEO, IFS and staff calculations. 25 Applying this any metric requires judgment. Composition of short-term debt Capital controls Dollarization Remittances Fundamentals 26 13
14 4/22/211 How much do reserves cost? Possible measures: 1. Net financial cost 2. Costs from maturity of reserves vs. sovereign liabilities 3. Sterilization costs 4. Actual or potential exchange rate valuation losses 5. Opportunity cost of foregone consumption or investment Net financial cost appropriate for EMs with market access At the margin, reserves are effectively financed by external debt Default risk and not just maturity structure Not costs from monetary and exchange rate policy decisions EM spreads (during normal times) as good proxy for NFC How to account for the effect of reserves in reducing sovereign spreads? Cost of Reserves 27 and how have costs changed? EMBI Spreads and Marginal Cost of Holding Reserves, 2-1 (median values) EMBI spreads, bps Median cost, bps Cost of Reserves 28 14
15 5 4/22/211 Which can play the role of reserves? (percent of total respondents) % 25% 5% 75% 1% Central bank swap lines Contingent credit lines: IFIs Contingent credit lines: banks Commodity price hedging SWF assets Reserve Alternatives 29 Conclusions Assessing reserve adequacy remains an inexact science Proposed new risk-weighted metric is probably an improvement But ultimately a good policy framework is critical And country-specific circumstances critical Adjustment of metric for country characteristics Scenario analysis of possible drains on reserves Country authorities own assessments of risks Existence of potential reserve substitutes and other country insurance Conclusions 3 15
16 4/22/211 Thank you 31 For further information James Roaf: Nathan Porter: 32 16
17 4/22/211 Market reaction to swap lines was instant, but short-lived for EMs, until G-2 London summit/imf lending reforms Federal Reserve liquidity swaps and Market Reaction (USD billion) Fed swap lines to BRA, MEX, KOR, SGP G-2 London Summit IMF lending reforms EMBI spread, RHS VIX, RHS CDS spread for BRA, MEX, KOR, SGP (RHS) Mar-1 Jan-1 Dec-9 Oct-9 Sep-9 Aug-9 Jun-9 May-9 Apr-9 Feb-9 Jan-9 Nov-8 Oct-8 Sep-8 Jul-8 Jun-8 Apr-8 Mar-8 Feb-8 Dec-7 Policy responses to systemic crises 33 USD bn Federal Reserve dollar liquidity swaps and market reaction (USD billion and bps) Fed swap lines to BRA, MEX, KOR, SGP EMBIG G-2 London Summit IMF lending reforms bps VIX CDS (AUS, DNK, NZL, SWE) CDS (BRA, KOR, MEX) Mar-1 Jan-1 Oct-9 Jun-9 Apr-9 Feb-9 Jan-9 Oct-8 Jul-8 Jun-8 Apr-8 Mar-8 Feb
18 4/22/211 (also excluding China and oil exporters) 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 $bn ALL EM Excluding China 3 Months of Imports 1 Percent of STD 2 Percent of Broad Money Unlike other financial account stocks, FDI does not leave. FDI liabilities Probability density Float Fixed In percent of FDI liabilities Sources: WEO and BOP Statistics 36 18
The new gold standard? Empirically situating the TPP in the investment treaty universe
Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies Center for Trade and Economic Integration Working Paper Series Working Paper N IHEIDCTEI2015-08 The new gold standard? Empirically situating
More informationA new metrics for the Economic Complexity of countries and products
A new metrics for the Economic Complexity of countries and products Andrea Tacchella Dept. of Physics, La Sapienza - University of Rome Istituto dei Sistemi Complessi, CNR Roma CRISISLAB ANALYTICS FOR
More informationBringing Up Incentives: A Look at the Determinants of Poverty. Alice Sheehan
Bringing Up Incentives: A Look at the Determinants of Poverty Alice Sheehan Outline presentation What s going on out there? Growth, Human Development indicators, Poverty rates, etc. A look at determinants
More informationFigure 1.1 The Parade of World Income. Copyright 2005 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1-1
Figure 1.1 The Parade of World Income Copyright 2005 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1-1 Copyright 2005 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1-2 Growth and Development: The Questions
More informationEconomic Complexity and the Wealth of Nations
Economic Complexity and the Wealth of Nations Cesar A. Hidalgo ABC Career Development Professor MIT Media Lab Faculty Associate, Center for International Development Harvard University EARTH WIND WATER
More informationToday s tips for the Country Buy Report
High level outline Today s tips for the Country Buy Report Stephen Malpezzi Introduction Overview of the country and economy Basic indicators (GDP, employment, etc.) Key institutions, the setting How does
More informationBuilding Capacity in PFM
Building Capacity in PFM Measuring economic governance in the context of national development planning LAMIA MOUBAYED BISSAT Beirut, Lebanon, 13 June 2014 The Institut des Finances Basil Fuleihan 1996
More informationAddressing institutional issues in the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper process
SESSION 1 Addressing institutional issues in the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper process Scoping notes, detailed diagnostics, and participatory processes Public Sector Reform and Capacity Building Unit
More informationFear of flying: Policy stances in a troubled world economy
Fear of flying: Policy stances in a troubled world economy UNCTAD G-24 Technical Meeting Luxor, 10-11 March 2014 Session 1 Global Economy A weakening economic performance reflects inability to address
More informationInfrastructure and Economic. Norman V. Loayza, World ldbank Rei Odawara, World Bank
Infrastructure and Economic Growth thin Egypt Norman V. Loayza, World ldbank Rei Odawara, World Bank Motivation Questions How does Egypt compare internationally regarding public infrastructure? Is Egypt
More informationDoes Absolute Latitude Explain Underdevelopment?
AREC 345: Global Poverty and Economic Development Lecture 4 Professor: Pamela Jakiela Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics University of Maryland, College Park Does Absolute Latitude Explain
More informationMacroeconomics II. Growth
Macroeconomics II Growth Growth Possibilities We previously referred to the aggregate production function Y = A K α L 1- α. The growth rate of real GDP, Y, is generated by the contributions of A, K and
More informationEconomic Growth: the role of institutions
ECON 184 Economic Growth: the role of institutions ECON 184: Institutions and Growth January 26, 2010 1 Contents 1 Institutions and growth: initial analysis 3 2 How can institutions affect economic growth?
More informationKen Jackson. January 31st, 2013
Wilfrid Laurier University January 31st, 2013 Recap of the technology models Do the models match historical data? growth accounting Estimating technology change through history A revised model of technology
More informationHow To Explain Euro Area Imbalances
GLOBAL IMBALANCES, CAPITAL FLOWS, AND THE CRISIS Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti International Monetary Fund Global imbalances have declined.. Even though stock positions are still expanding 20 15 Net foreign
More informationTrade Policy Restrictiveness in Transportation Services
Trade Policy Restrictiveness in Transportation Services Ingo Borchert, Batshur Gootiiz and Aaditya Mattoo Development Research Group Trade and International Integration, The World Bank OECD Expert Meeting
More informationTHE QUALITY OF GOVERNMENT CA FOSCARI INTERNATIONAL LECTURE
THE QUALITY OF GOVERNMENT CA FOSCARI INTERNATIONAL LECTURE Andrei Shleifer December 12, 2012 1 Richer countries almost always have better governments Less corrupt More efficient Quality of government improves
More informationFinancial services and economic development
GDP per capita growth 03/11/2014 Financial services and economic development Thorsten Beck Finance why do we care? 0.04 BWA 0.02 0.00-0.02 COG SLE ALB GAB IND KOR TUR SGP MUS SDN MOZ IRLLUX IDN MAR EGY
More informationNatural Resources and Development in the Middle East and North Africa: An Alternative Perspective
Natural Resources and Development in the Middle East and North Africa: An Alternative Perspective Daniel Lederman and Mustapha K. Nabli The World Bank Presentation at the Workshop on Natural Resources
More informationDeep Roots of Comparative Development
Deep Roots of Comparative Development Oded Galor AEA Continuing Education Program Lecture III - AEA 2014 Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development Lecture III - AEA 2014 1 / 41 Deep Roots of Comparative
More informationThe Fall of the Final Mercantilism
The Fall of the Final Mercantilism Labour Mobility in the Caribbean and the World, from Arthur Lewis to the 21 st Century Eastern Caribbean Central Bank Michael Clemens November 3, 2010 1 2 Migration
More informationAddressing The Marketing Problem of the Social Market Economy
Addressing The Marketing Problem of the Social Prepared for: KAS-Conference on 60 Years of Social Market Economy Sankt Augustin, November 30, 2009 Marcus Marktanner, American University of Beirut Outline
More informationThe Macroeconomic Implications of Financial Globalization
The Macroeconomic Implications of Financial Globalization Eswar Prasad, IMF Research Department November 10, 2006 The views expressed in this paper are those of the author(s) ) only, and the presence of
More informationChina: How to maintain balanced growth? Ricardo Hausmann Kennedy School of Government Harvard University
China: How to maintain balanced growth? Ricardo Hausmann Kennedy School of Government Harvard University China s growth process An unprecedented miracle China has been the fastest growing country in the
More informationInternational Investment Patterns. Philip R. Lane WBI Seminar, Paris, April 2006
International Investment Patterns Philip R. Lane WBI Seminar, Paris, April 2006 Introduction What determines aggregate capital inflows and outflows? What determines bilateral patterns in international
More informationEstimating Global Migration Flow Tables Using Place of Birth Data
Estimating Global Migration Flow Tables Using Place of Birth Data Guy J. Abel Wittgenstein Centre (IIASA, VID/ÖAW, WU) Vienna Institute of Demography/Austrian Academy of Sciences 1 Introduction International
More informationTRADE WATCH DATA JANUARY T RVSFRRTVL
Public Disclosure Authorized TRADE WATCH DATA JANUARY T RVSFRRTVL Public Disclosure Authorized A C F D H T W B DECRG Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized *TRADE WATCH is a monthly
More informationF L O O R FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE, LAND POLICY, AND GLOBAL SOCIAL RIGHTS
Lutz Leisering, Tobias Böger Measuring Social Citizenship in Developing Countries DFG-Research Project FLOOR-B www.floorgroup.de Principal Investigator: Lutz Leisering F L O O R FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE, LAND
More informationSubjective Well-Being, Income, Economic Development and Growth
Subjective Well-Being, Income, Economic Development and Growth Dan Sacks, Betsey Stevenson and Justin Wolfers Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania and NBER Annual Bank Conference on Development Economics--Stockholm,
More informationInstitutional Change and Growth-Enabling Governance Capabilities
Institutional Change and Growth-Enabling Governance Capabilities Nicolas Meisel Strategy and Research Dept - French Development Agency (AFD) Jacques Ould Aoudia Treasury and Economic Policy Directorate
More informationEvaluation with stylized facts
Evaluation with stylized facts AMPERE Subgroup on IAM Validation Valeria Jana Schwanitz Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research 27. Mai 2013 Content Fundamental laws and stylized facts Systematic
More informationGovernance, Rule of Law and Transparency Matters: BRICs in Global Perspective
Governance, Rule of Law and Transparency Matters: BRICs in Global Perspective Daniel Kaufmann * Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution http://www.brookings.edu/experts/kaufmannd.aspx Panel on Transparency
More informationLecture 9: Institutions, Geography and Culture. Based on Acemoglu s L. Robbins lectures
Lecture 9: Institutions, Geography and Culture Based on Acemoglu s L. Robbins lectures 1 The Wealth of Nations Vast differences in prosperity across countries today. Income per capita in sub-saharan Africa
More informationThe Global Crisis in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: How the IMF Responded
The Global Crisis in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: How the IMF Responded Andrea F. Presbitero Alberto Zazzaro 1 Università Politecnica delle Marche 2 Money and Finance Research group (MoFiR) Real and
More informationA Pragmatic Approach to Capital Account Liberalization. Eswar Prasad Cornell University
A Pragmatic Approach to Capital Account Liberalization Eswar Prasad Cornell University Presentation partly based on my joint work with: Ayhan Kose, Kenneth Rogoff, Shang-Jin Wei (2003, 2006) Raghuram Rajan
More informationEconomic Growth: The Neo-classical & Endogenous Story
Density of countries Economic Growth: The Neo-classical & Endogenous Story EC307 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1960 Dr. Kumar Aniet University of Cambridge & LSE Summer School Lecture 4 1980 2000 created on July
More informationTrade and International Integration: A Developing Program of Research
Trade and International Integration: A Developing Program of Research World Bank Development Economics Research Group Geneva, June 2013 Three areas of focus I. Implications of the changing patterns of
More informationHuman Resources for Health Why we need to act now
Human Resources for Health Why we need to act now Progress towards the MDGs, particularly in Africa is slow, or even stagnating. Poor people cannot access basic services for want of doctors, nurses and
More informationLife-cycle Human Capital Accumulation Across Countries: Lessons From U.S. Immigrants
Life-cycle Human Capital Accumulation Across Countries: Lessons From U.S. Immigrants David Lagakos, UCSD and NBER Benjamin Moll, Princeton and NBER Tommaso Porzio, Yale Nancy Qian, Yale and NBER Todd Schoellman,
More informationInfrastructure and Economic Growth in Egypt
Public Disclosure Authorized Policy Research Working Paper 5177 WPS5177 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Infrastructure and Economic Growth in Egypt Norman V. Loayza Rei Odawara
More informationSubjective Well Being, Income, Economic Development and Growth
Subjective Well Being, Income, Economic Development and Growth Dan Sacks, Betsey Stevenson and Justin Wolfers Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania and NBER CSLS ICP Conference on Happiness December
More informationECON 260 Theories of Economic Development. Instructor: Jorge Agüero. Fall 2008. Lecture 1 September 29, 2008 1
ECON 260 Theories of Economic Development. Instructor: Jorge Agüero. Fall 2008. Lecture 1 September 29, 2008 1 General information Time and location: TR 2:10-3:30 p.m. SPR 3123 Office hours: T 10am-11am,
More informationSovereign Defaults: The Price of Haircuts
Sovereign Defaults: The Price of Haircuts Juan Cruces Univ. Torcuato Di Tella Christoph Trebesch University of Munich and CESIfo Debt Crisis Conference, Reykjavik University, 08.10.2011 1 INTRODUCTION
More informationMovement and development. Australian National University Jan. 17, 2013 Michael Clemens
Movement and development Australian National University Jan. 17, 2013 Michael Clemens ? 60% Benefits Little Haiti Cap-Haïtien Gibson and McKenzie 2010 Tongan seasonal workers in NZ NZ$1,400/family
More informationFinance, Growth & Opportunity. Implications for policy
Finance, Growth & Opportunity Implications for policy Today, I will make three points 1) Finance matters for human welfare beyond crises. 2) Financial innovation is associated with arguably necessary for
More informationPolitical Economy of Growth
1 Political Economy of Growth Daron Acemoglu Department of Economics, MIT Milan, DEFAP June 11, 2007 The Wealth of Nations Vast differences in prosperity across countries today. Income per capita in sub-saharan
More informationFiscal Management: Lessons from. Koshy Mathai 10 July 2013
Fiscal Management: Lessons from Emerging Market Economies Koshy Mathai 10 July 2013 1 Outline 1. Importance of fiscal discipline 2. Sri Lanka overview 3. Revenue 4. Expenditure 5. Fiscal space and countercylical
More informationCOMPLEXITY AND INDUSTRIAL POLICY
IPD/JICA Task Force on Industrial Policy and Transformation Amman, Jordan, June 5-6, 2014 COMPLEXITY AND INDUSTRIAL POLICY Luciano Pietronero Measuring the Intangible Growth Potential of Countries Collaborators:
More informationDEPENDENT ELITES IN POST- SOCIALISM: ARE LAND-BASED POST- COLONIAL SYSTEMS SO DIFFERENT FROM THE TRANSCONTINENTAL ONES? by Pal TAMAS [Institute of
DEPENDENT ELITES IN POST- SOCIALISM: ARE LAND-BASED POST- COLONIAL SYSTEMS SO DIFFERENT FROM THE TRANSCONTINENTAL ONES? by Pal TAMAS [Institute of Sociology, HAS Budapest] STRUCTURE OF THE PAPER 1. STATE
More informationHow To Understand The World'S Governance
Metrics Matters: Measures of Governance and Security and the Business Perspective An initial empirical exploration Daniel Kaufmann, World Bank Institute www.worldbank.org/wbi/governance For presentation
More informationInstitute for Development Policy and Management (IDPM)
Institute for Development Policy and Management (IDPM) Development Economics and Public Policy Working Paper Series WP No. 33/212 Published by: Development Economics and Public Policy Cluster, Institute
More informationNGO PERSPECTIVE: FROM WORDS TO DEEDS
MMSD & IIED Managing Mineral Wealth NGO PERSPECTIVE: FROM WORDS TO DEEDS Miguel Schloss Executive Director Transparency International Issues Policy distortions Institutional incentives Governance Implications
More informationLecture 21: Institutions II
Lecture 21: Institutions II Dave Donaldson and Esther Duflo 14.73 Challenges of World Poverty Institutions II: Plan for the lecture Discussion of assigned reading (Acemoglu, Johnson and Robinson) Causes
More informationDiversification versus Polarization: Role of industrial policy in Asia and the Pacific
TOWARDS A RETURN OF INDUSTRIAL POLICY? ARTNeT SYMPOSIUM 25-26 JULY 211 ESCAP, BANGKOK Diversification versus Polarization: Role of industrial policy in Asia and the Pacific Sudip Ranjan Basu* International
More informationTrends in global income inequality and their political implications
Trends in global income inequality and their political implications LIS Center; Graduate School City University of New York Talk at the Stockholm School of Economics, September 1, 2014 A. National inequalities
More informationINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. Assessing Reserve Adequacy
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND Assessing Reserve Adequacy Prepared by Monetary and Capital Markets, Research, and Strategy, Policy, and Review Departments In consultation with other departments Approved by
More informationExport Survival and Comparative Advantage
Export Survival and Comparative Advantage (Work in progress) Regional Seminar on Export Diversification, October 27-28, 2010 Bolormaa Tumurchudur, UNCTAD Miho Shirotori, UNCTAD Alessandro Nicita, UNCTAD
More informationGrowing Together with Growth Polarization and Income Inequality
Growing Together with Growth Polarization and Income Inequality Sudip Ranjan Basu, Ph.D. Economist, United Nations ESCAP UN DESA Expert Group Meeting on the World Economy (LINK Project) United Nations
More informationRodolfo Debenedetti Lecture
Rodolfo Debenedetti Lecture Andrei Shleifer March 2005 Legal Origin Distribution Legal Origins = English = French = German = Scandinavian = Socialist Institution Procedural Formalism Outcomes Time to evict
More informationIn Defense of Wall Street - Does Finance Cause Creative Destruction?
In Defense of Wall Street The Social Productivity of the Financial System Finance is powerful Mobilizes Researches and allocates Monitors and exerts corporate control Provides risk diversification and
More informationLecture 12 The Solow Model and Convergence. Noah Williams
Lecture 12 The Solow Model and Convergence Noah Williams University of Wisconsin - Madison Economics 312 Spring 2010 Recall: Balanced Growth Path All per-capita variables grow at rate g. All level variables
More informationDoes Export Concentration Cause Volatility?
Does Export Concentration Cause Volatility? Christian Busch 14. Januar 2010 Overview Countries with undiversified export structure are plausibly more vulnerable to external shocks. But difficult to evaluate
More informationGeography and Economic Transition
Global Spatial Analysis at the Grid Cell Level Mesbah Motamed Raymond Florax Will Masters Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University March 2009 Urbanization at the grid cell level Growth regimes
More informationSpecialization Patterns in International Trade
Specialization Patterns in International Trade Walter Steingress November 16, 2015 Abstract The pattern of specialization is key to understanding how trade affects the production structure of an economy.
More informationHow To Calculate Language Skill Premia
Language barriers to foreign trade: evidence from translation costs Alejandro Molnar Vanderbilt University DRAFT, NOT FOR CIRCULATION November 9, 2013 Abstract [Foreign trade involves tasks that may be
More informationRelative Prices and Sectoral Productivity
Relative Prices and Sectoral Productivity Margarida Duarte University of Toronto Diego Restuccia University of Toronto August 2012 Abstract The relative price of services rises with development. A standard
More informationHow To Increase Crop Output
Adaptation to land constraints: Is Africa different? Derek Headey International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) Thom Jayne Michigan State University (MSU) 1 1. Introduction Some 215 years ago, Malthus
More informationFEDERATION INTERNATIONALE DE GYMNASTIQUE
Individual Competitions Qualifications C-I 22, 23, 24 and 25 September 2014 1st day of qualification 2nd day of qualification 3rd day of qualification 4th day of qualification 22 September 2014 23 September
More informationTripartite Agreements for MEPC.2/Circ. Lists 1, 3, 4 received by IMO following issuance of MEPC.2/Circ.21
The following is a list of tripartite agreements reported to IMO during the period between the issuance of the annual MEPC.2/Circular, disseminated in December of each year. Any countries wishing to join
More informationInformality in Latin America and the Caribbean
WPS4888 Policy Research Working Paper 4888 Informality in Latin America and the Caribbean Norman V. Loayza Luis Servén Naotaka Sugawara The World Bank Development Research Group Macroeconomics and Growth
More informationThe distribution of household financial contributions to the health system: A look outside Latin America and the Caribbean
The distribution of household financial contributions to the health system: A look outside Latin America and the Caribbean Priyanka Saksena and Ke Xu 3 November, 2008 Santiago 1 The distribution of household
More informationDesign of efficient redistributive fiscal policy
Fiscal Policy and Income Inequality Sanjeev Gupta Deputy Director Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF IMF-Hitotsubashi University Workshop March 12, Tokyo Structure of the presentation Trends in inequality
More informationIncen%ves The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
Incen%ves The Good, the Bad and the Ugly Vale Columbia Center Interna%onal Investment Conference New York, Nov 13-14, 2013 Sebas%an James The World Bank Group 1 Prevalence of Tax Incen%ves around the Number
More informationTripartite Agreements for MEPC.2/Circ. Lists 1, 3, 4 received by IMO following issuance of MEPC.2/Circ.20
The following is a list of tripartite agreements reported to IMO during the period between the issuance of the annual MEPC.2/Circular, disseminated in December of each year. Any countries wishing to join
More informationA Survey of Securities Laws and Enforcement
A Survey of Securities Laws and Enforcement Preliminary Draft By Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes YALE University and NBER October 2003 *I am indebted to Patricio Amador, Jose Caballero and Manuel Garcia-Huitron
More informationThe Role of Trade in Structural Transformation
1 The Role of Trade in Structural Transformation Marc Teignier UNIVERSIDAD DE ALICANTE European Summer Symposium in International Macroeconomics 23 May 2012, Tarragona Question Contributions Road Map Motivation
More informationMeasuring the Pollution Terms of Trade with Technique Effects
Measuring the Pollution Terms of Trade with Technique Effects Jean-Marie Grether, University of Neuchâtel Nicole Mathys, Swiss Federal Office of Energy and University of Neuchâtel Conference on the International
More informationEmployment, Structural Change, and Economic Development. Dani Rodrik March 15, 2012
Employment, Structural Change, and Economic Development Dani Rodrik March 15, 2012 A remarkable reversal in fortunes since 1990s -.04 -.02 0.02.04.06 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
More informationEC 2725 April 2009. Law and Finance. Effi Benmelech Harvard & NBER
EC 2725 April 2009 Law and Finance Effi Benmelech Harvard & NBER Broad Picture A market economy is not only laissez faire but it also requires a set of institutions that allow markets to work their magic.
More informationAbstract. Policy Research Working Paper 6754
Public Disclosure Authorized Policy Research Working Paper 6754 WPS6754 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Tapering Talk The Impact of Expectations of Reduced Federal Reserve Security
More informationSummary of Quota allocation as per 23.12.2013
Nation Summary of Quota allocation as per 23.12.213 AL CC JP NK FS SB Quota Quota Quota Quota Quota Quota Total ALB 1 1 ALG 1 1 AND 4 1 1 6 ARG 8 1 9 ARM 1 3 4 AUS 5 3 18 13 39 AUT 19 7 7 5 7 17 62 AZE
More informationThe contribution of trade in financial services to economic growth and development. Thorsten Beck
The contribution of trade in financial services to economic growth and development Thorsten Beck Finance why do we care? 0.04 BWA GDP per capita growth 0.02 0.00-0.02 COG SLE ALB GAB IND KOR TUR SGP MUS
More informationThe Shift to Government Banking:
The Shift to Government Banking: Risks for the Netherlands and other Developed Countries Prof. Florencio Lopez de Silanes EDHEC Business School, NBER and DSF April 28, 2011 Amsterdam Outline I. The Policy
More informationPOPULATION DENSITY, LAND, AND FUTURE TRAJECTORIES OF STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION IN AFRICA
POPULATION DENSITY, LAND, AND FUTURE TRAJECTORIES OF STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION IN AFRICA T.S. Jayne, Jordan Chamberlin, Milu Muyanga, Derek Headey Michigan State University, USA Plenary presentation at
More informationFirst Credit Bureau Conference
First Credit Bureau Conference Riga, Latvia 13.1.15 Presentation by: Leora Klapper Lead Economist Development Research Group, World Bank DEVELOPING A NATIONAL CREDIT BUREAU Financial Development What is
More informationFertility Convergence
Fertility Convergence Tiloka De-Silva a Silvana Tenreyro a,b a London School of Economics, CfM; b CEP, CEPR July 2015 Abstract A vast literature has sought to explain large cross-country differences in
More informationServices Trade: Recent Policy Trends and Incentives
Services Trade: Recent Policy Trends and Incentives Bernard Hoekman World Bank Based on papers by Borchert and Mattoo (services overall) and Dhar and Srivasta (mode 4) May 27, 2009 Services (should) matter
More informationRethinking the Wealth of Nations. Daron Acemoglu, MIT FEEM Lecture, December 14, 2009.
Rethinking the Wealth of Nations Daron Acemoglu, MIT FEEM Lecture, December 14, 2009. 1 The Failure of Nations Vast differences in prosperity across countries today. Income per capita in sub-saharan Africa
More informationParticipation of Developing Countries in New and Dynamic Sectors of World Trade: The South South Dimension
Expert Meeting on Participation of Developing Countries in New and Dynamic Sectors of World Trade: The South South Dimension Geneva 16 17 October 2007 The Trojan Horse Effect of Trade in Cultural Goods
More informationInequality of Opportunity in Educational Achievements
Inequality of Opportunity in Educational Achievements Cross-Country and Intertemporal Comparisons P. Luongo University of Bari Inequality Measurement, trend, impacts and policies UNU-WIDER Conference September
More informationInformality in Latin America and the Caribbean
Public Disclosure Authorized Policy Research Working Paper 4888 WPS4888 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Informality in Latin America and the Caribbean Norman V. Loayza Luis Servén
More informationOnline Appendix to The Missing Food Problem: Trade, Agriculture, and International Income Differences
Online Appendix to The Missing Food Problem: Trade, Agriculture, and International Income Differences Trevor Tombe, Uversity of Calgary Contents 1 Proof of Propositions 2 2 Data and Sample of Countries
More informationAccounting For Cross-Country Income Di erences
Accounting For Cross-Country Income Di erences January 2011 () Aggregation January 2011 1 / 10 Standard Primal Growth Accounting Aggregate production possibilities frontier: where Change in output is )
More informationSession 5x: Bonus material
The Social Statistics Discipline Area, School of Social Sciences Session 5x: Bonus material Mitchell Centre for Network Analysis Johan Koskinen http://www.ccsr.ac.uk/staff/jk.htm! johan.koskinen@manchester.ac.uk
More informationSubjective Well Being and Income: Is There Any Evidence of Satiation? *
Subjective Well Being and Income: Is There Any Evidence of Satiation? * Betsey Stevenson The Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy, University of Michigan & CESifo and NBER betseys@umich.edu www.nber.org/~bstevens
More informationWhere was Services Trade Liberalized: FTA or WTO?
Where was Services Trade Liberalized: FTA or WTO? London School of Economics ECIPE, 11 April 2013 Table of contents Introduction Motivation Framework Findings Policy Before starting.. Joint work with Sébastien
More information2006/SOM1/ACT/WKSP/007a Recasting Governance for the XXI Century - Presentation
2006/SOM1/ACT/WKSP/007a Recasting Governance for the XXI Century - Presentation Submitted by: Miguel Schloss, Managing Partner DamConsult Ltd. APEC Workshop on Anti-Corruption Measures for the Development
More informationNon-market strategy under weak institutions
Lectures 5-6 Non-market strategy under weak institutions 1 Outline 1. Does weakness of institutions matter for business and economic performance? 2. Which institutions matter most? 3. Why institutions
More informationIndustrial Policy, Capabilities, and Growth: Where does the Future of Singapore lie? Jesus Felipe Asian Development Bank
Industrial Policy, Capabilities, and Growth: Where does the Future of Singapore lie? Jesus Felipe Asian Development Bank Purpose of the talk Understand the economic challenges that Singapore faces Discuss
More information2013 International Monetary Fund July 2013 IMF Country Report No. 13/201
213 International Monetary Fund July 213 IMF Country Report No. 13/21 June 7, 213 June 24, 213 June xx, 213 June xx, 213?? 213 January 29, 21 Colombia: Arrangement Under the Flexible Credit Line Staff
More information