Changing nature of South-South trade: Implications for world trade prospects

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1 Changing nature of South-South trade: Implications for world trade prospects Sudip Ranjan Basu* UNCTAD, Geneva Project LINK Spring Meeting St. Petersburg International Economic Forum St. Petersburg, Russia 4-6 June 29 *The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the UNCTAD Secretariat or its members. 1

2 South-South trade* expansion: A big picture view *Merchandise export for this study! 2

3 Synchronized downturn Trade and Growth $ billions Percent Granger cause Ding_Output US_imp China_exp Poly. (Ding_Output) Source: UNCTAD, Bloomberg 3

4 LINK factors. $ billions South-South exports (Developing countries exports to North and South) Exports to North Exports to South Source: UNCTAD 4

5 South-South exports: South to North ratio (Developing countries) $ billions Percent South to North ratio (right axis) Source: UNCTAD South-South South-North 5

6 Transition economies exports: Transition economies to North ratio $ billions Percent Transition to North ratio (right axis) Source: UNCTAD ETran-South ETran-North 6

7 Emerging economies exports: South to RoW ratio (Seven emerging economies*) $ billions Percent 1 16 E7 to RoW ratio (right axis) *Brazil, China, India, Mexico, Russia, South Africa and South Korea Source: UNCTAD E7-South E7-RoW

8 Highlights Percent 1 Increasing market share of South (Developing and Transition economies exports to World) North/World S-ET/World Source: UNCTAD 8

9 But Regional differences high in South (Developing and Transition economies exports to World ) Percent 1 Regional exports to World 1 Regional exports to South Source: UNCTAD Africa/World Americas/World Asia/World Africa/South Americas/South Asia/South 9

10 Regional exports: Africa, Americas and Asia (Developing countries) Regions to RoW ratio (right axis) $ billions Percent Africa_S Source: UNCTAD Africa_RoW Americas_RoW Americas_S Asia_S Asia_RoW 1

11 LDCs, SVEs, LLDCs and SIDS exports: (Developing countries) $ billions Percent Regions to RoW ratio (right axis) LDCs_S LDCs_RoW SVEs_S SVEs_RoW Note: LDCs: Least developed countries, SVEs: Small and vulnerable economies, LLDCs: Landlocked developing countries, SIDS: Small island developing countries. Source: UNCTAD SIDS_S SIDS_RoW LLDCs_S LLDCs_RoW 11

12 No to protectionism Index value 12. Market access* and exports: 1. (Developing countries and transition economies) Market access (right axis) Log(exports) Exports *Higher market access implies lower index value Source: Basu (29), UNCTAD 12

13 Nature of South-South trade expansion: Going beyond aggregates 13

14 Structural transformation in South exports (Share of developing countries exports to World) G 27 E 2% F 16% 1% 1995 A D 21% A 13% B 7% C 22% F 21% E 22% G 5% 8% B 6% D 23% C 15% A: Primary commodities, B: Labour intensive and resource based manufactures C: Manufactures with low skill and technology intensity, D: Manufactures with medium skill and technology intensity, E: Manufactures with high skill and technology intensity F: Energy products, G: Unclassified Source: UNCTAD 14

15 Structural transformation in exports (Share of transition economies exports to World) F 29% E 2% G 1% D 18% A 14% B 9% C 18% F 48% G 6% A 8% B 1% D 14% E 2% C 12% A: Primary commodities, B: Labour intensive and resource based manufactures C: Manufactures with low skill and technology intensity, D: Manufactures with medium skill and technology intensity, E: Manufactures with high skill and technology intensity F: Energy products, G: Unclassified Source: UNCTAD 15

16 Primary commodities (% share of share of national exports, developing and transition) Change: Djibouti Zambia Gambia, The Sierra Leone Nicaragua Panama Burkina Faso Nepal Dominican Republic Uruguay Indonesia Rwanda Yemen, Rep. Maldives Tunisia Syrian Arab Republic Brunei Kuwait Saudi Arabia Angola Algeria Korea, Rep. Nigeria Mexico Gabon United Arab Emirates Fiji Croatia Argentina Belize Venezuela Peru Bahrain Guinea-Bissau Congo, Rep. Romania St. Vincent and the Grenadines Lebanon Bangladesh India Barbados Bulgaria Dominica Bosnia and Herzegovina Kazakhstan Honduras Zimbabwe Suriname Colombia Somalia Albania Uganda Jordan Lao PDR Bolivia Guatemala Turkmenistan Togo Cameroon St. Lucia Bahamas, The Cuba Uzbekistan Tajikistan Madagascar Mali St. Kitts and Nevis Mozambique Chad Countries change in exports: 75 per cent 24 per cent

17 Labour intensive and resource based manufactures (% share of share of national exports, developing and transition) Tajikistan Tanzania Burundi Togo Georgia Lao PDR Lebanon Zimbabwe Uzbekistan Nicaragua Bulgaria Afghanistan Bosnia and Herzegovina United Arab Emirates Chile Bhutan Peru Nepal Kiribati Rwanda Mauritius Ethiopia Albania Colombia Guatemala Samoa Jordan St. Lucia Ukraine Solomon Islands Yemen, Rep. Costa Rica Panama Comoros Dominica Equatorial Guinea Seychelles Mauritania Algeria Liberia Cape Verde Belize Tunisia Qatar Morocco Cuba Oman Brazil Malaysia Philippines Bangladesh Trinidad and Tobago Argentina Russian Federation Ecuador China Vietnam India Cameroon Fiji Haiti Indonesia Korea, Rep. Armenia Sudan Bolivia Central African Republic Sierra Leone Eritrea Change: Countries change in exports: 49 per cent 51 per cent

18 Manufactures with low skill and technology intensity (% share of share of national exports, developing and transition) Dominican Republic Madagascar Bhutan Moldova Armenia Morocco Syrian Arab Republic Togo Ukraine Colombia Grenada Uzbekistan Honduras Kiribati Malawi Ghana Tanzania St. Vincent and the Grenadines Tonga Seychelles Kenya Mali Burkina Faso Kyrgyz Republic Kuwait Yemen, Rep. Angola Equatorial Guinea Central African Republic Cuba Guinea-Bissau Congo, Rep. Chad Nigeria Algeria Bolivia Oman Tajikistan Costa Rica Iraq Somalia Argentina Cameroon Singapore Sudan Barbados Cote d'ivoire Indonesia Vietnam Russian Federation Bahrain Sri Lanka Pakistan Trinidad and Tobago Antigua and Barbuda Thailand Brazil Georgia Djibouti India Philippines Afghanistan China Belarus Croatia Maldives Egypt, Arab Rep. Turkey Jamaica Countries change in exports: 62 per cent 38 per cent Change:

19 Manufactures with medium skill and technology intensity (% share of share of national exports, developing and transition) St. Kitts and Nevis Cambodia Thailand Nepal St. Lucia Uzbekistan Jamaica Zimbabwe Bosnia and Herzegovina Romania Syrian Arab Republic Croatia Indonesia Togo Philippines Turkey Burundi Malaysia Madagascar Guatemala Benin Equatorial Guinea Malawi Lebanon Mauritius Tonga Costa Rica Yemen, Rep. Kuwait Pakistan Argentina Turkmenistan Ecuador Paraguay Nigeria Guyana Angola Egypt, Arab Rep. Brazil United Arab Emirates Qatar Uruguay Congo, Rep. Morocco Suriname Panama Saudi Arabia Chile Mongolia Algeria Lao PDR Iraq Ukraine Tajikistan Mexico Trinidad and Tobago Russian Federation Seychelles Rwanda Bhutan Haiti Barbados Jordan Samoa Bahrain Bulgaria Nicaragua Senegal Cape Verde Countries change in exports: 47 per cent 53 per cent Change:

20 Manufactures with high skill and technology intensity (% share of share of national exports, developing and transition) Costa Rica China St. Kitts and Nevis Cuba Georgia Morocco St. Lucia Mexico Brazil Philippines Cote d'ivoire Turkmenistan Grenada United Arab Emirates Pakistan Barbados Sri Lanka Fiji Turkey Sierra Leone Albania Senegal South Africa Tonga Niger Somalia Saudi Arabia Tanzania Cambodia Paraguay Guyana Guinea-Bissau Bulgaria Honduras Solomon Islands Ghana Benin Venezuela Ecuador St. Vincent and the Grenadines Kenya Yemen, Rep. Angola Cameroon Dominica Chile Guatemala Peru Uzbekistan Congo, Rep. Iraq Burkina Faso Myanmar Egypt, Arab Rep. Papua New Guinea Togo Haiti Bahrain Thailand Lebanon Armenia Bolivia Belarus Bahamas, The Afghanistan Malaysia Singapore Seychelles Change: Countries change in exports: 37 per cent 63 per cent

21 Energy products (% share of share of national exports, developing and transition) Chad Antigua and Barbuda Equatorial Guinea Kazakhstan Belarus Cameroon Turkmenistan Bahamas, The Azerbaijan Russian Federation Mozambique Venezuela Papua New Guinea Guinea Jamaica Oman Egypt, Arab Rep. Bosnia and Herzegovina Niger Mongolia Uganda Rwanda Croatia Bulgaria Guatemala Pakistan Congo, Rep. Algeria Argentina Korea, Rep. Morocco Peru Nigeria Gabon El Salvador Albania Saudi Arabia South Africa Jordan Turkey Gambia, The Nicaragua Mauritius St. Vincent and the Grenadines Dominican Republic Guyana Haiti St. Kitts and Nevis Philippines Tanzania Eritrea Malawi Mali Zimbabwe Sri Lanka Cuba Iran, Islamic Rep. Guinea-Bissau Ethiopia Kuwait Panama Liberia Togo Djibouti Syrian Arab Republic United Arab Emirates Change: Countries change in exports: 29 per cent 71 per cent

22 Percent 3 Structural transformation in South exports (Share of developing countries exports to World) 25 2 Manufactures with high skill and technology intensity Manufactures with medium skill and technology intensity Energy products 15 Manufactures with low skill and technology intensity 1 5 Labour intensive and resource based manufactures Primary commodities South-A South-B South-C South-D South-E South-F South-G Source: UNCTAD 22

23 Percent 6 Structural transformation in transitions economies exports (Share of ETran exports to World) 5 Energy products Manufactures with medium skill and technology intensity Labour intensive and Primary commodities resource based manufactures Manufactures with high skill and technology intensity Source: UNCTAD Manufactures with low skill and technology intensity ETran-A ETran-B ETran-C ETran-D ETran-E ETran-F ETran-G 23

24 Percent 35 Structural transformation in emerging economies exports (Share of E7 exports to World) Manufactures with medium skill and technology intensity Manufactures with low skill and technology intensity Manufactures with high skill and technology intensity Energy products 1 5 Primary commodities Labour intensive and resource based manufactures E7-A E7-B E7-C E7-D E7-E E7-F E7-G Source: UNCTAD 24

25 Percent 7 Structural transformation in LDCs exports (Share of LDCs exports to World) 6 5 Energy products 4 Primary commodities 3 Manufactures with low skill and technology intensity 2 1 Manufactures with medium skill and technology intensity LDCs-A LDCs-B LDCs-C LDCs-D LDCs-E LDCs-F LDCs-G Source: UNCTAD Labour intensive and resource based manufactures Manufactures with high skill and technology intensity 25

26 Percent 6 Structural transformation in SVEs exports (Share of SVEs exports to World) 5 4 Primary commodities Energy products SVEs -A SVEs -B SVEs -C SVEs -D SVEs -E SVEs -F SVEs -G Source: UNCTAD Manufactures with low Labour skill intensive and and technology intensity resource based manufactures Manufactures with medium skill and technology intensity Manufactures with high skill and technology intensity 26

27 Percent 7 Structural transformation in LLDCs exports (Share of LLDCs exports to World) Primary commodities Labour intensive and resource based manufactures Manufactures with medium skill and technology intensity LLDCs-A LLDCs-B LLDCs-C LLDCs-D LLDCs-E LLDCs-F LLDCs-G Source: UNCTAD Manufactures with low skill and technology intensity Energy products Manufactures with high skill and technology intensity 27

28 Percent 45 Structural transformation in SIDS exports (Share of SIDS exports to World) 4 35 Energy products Manufactures with medium skill and technology intensity Manufactures with high skill and technology intensity Manufactures with low skill and technology intensity Labour intensive and resource based manufactures Primary commodities SIDS-A SIDS-B SIDS-C SIDS-D SIDS-E SIDS-F SIDS-G Source: UNCTAD 28

29 Per 7cent Russian story (% share of share of national exports) Increasing dependence on energy products 16 per cent share ( ) Primary Labour Low Medium High Energy

30 Understanding structural transformation: Preliminary empirical findings 3

31 Identifying constraints Index Determinants of trade expansion and development (Trade and Development Index) Multiple policy constarints Price stability and openness Afriica North Source: Developing Countries in International Trade 27: Trade and Development Index. United Nations, UNCTAD, Geneva and New York, 27 31

32 Developing economies merchandise exports grew from 1.4 trillion USD in 1995 to 5.2 trillion USD in 27 The transformation of developing countries exports structure has been diverse leading to a differential level of impact on their national economic growth and development. Two key issues: The proponents of open-global economy and free trade argue that product diversification help accelerate economic growth and development in countries which favored these set of policies. On the other hand, another set of economists argue that a cautious approach in conjunction with good and strategic domestic economic policies can better help countries to obtain fruits of export diversification leading to rising skill/technology content of products help countries to transform their domestic production structure. 32

33 Classical arguments Prebisch-Singer (195) hypothesis indicate that (trade) concentration is linked to deteriorating terms of trade, income volatility, shrinking production structure that lead to low-level equilibrium trap. Trade (export) diversification and skill/technology content in production process is key for developing countries to overcome domestic economic and structural bottlenecks, especially in Africa Welfare impacts: economic growth and employment creations Sectoral implications: Depending on the institutional linkages and stages of development, welfare implications tend to be higher in high skilled/technology content industries, and new issues related to intensive and extensive margin Domestic economic linkages: Forward and backward linkages with domestic firms leading to a productive capacity and expand structure

34 Trade as engine of growth Continuing discussions 194s-198s: Harschman (1945), United Nations (195), Michaely (1958), Massell (1964) 199s-2: Grossman and Helpman (1991), Sachs and Warner (1995), Lall (2) 21 onwards: Wood and Mayer (21), Lederman and Maloney (23), Imbs and Wacziarg (23), Hausman and Rodrik (23), Collier (23) Sachs et al. (24) Hausman, Hwang and Rodrik (25), Melitz and Ottaviano(25), Rodrik (26) UN Africa (27) Cadot, et al (28) World Bank (29) UNCTAD (22, 28 & 29) 34

35 Identification Some empirics Three key issues: New database and measures Exploring importance of institutions along with economic polices, infrastructure, and geography as determinants of factor intensity differences in developing countries These results are robust to different specifications, estimation methods, and additional control variables Cross section model Panel model 17 countries, whole sample Period of analysis

36 Exploration 17 countries, whole sample (developing and transition, 13+) Time periods: 1995 to 27 Four time periods: , , 21-23, and Trade database Database and measures UNCTAD South-South Trade Information System (SSTIS) Product Classification at HS-6 digit level Time series ensured soon Institutional Quality, Foreign Market Access, Economic Policy and Geography Factor intensity categories: UNCTAD SSTIS database, HS-4 digit level Other data (Economic policy, Infrastructure, Geography etc): UNCTAD, World Bank, IMF, WTO, HF/Cato, CIRI, and other sources 36

37 Factor intensity Measuring factor intensity Harmonised System of trade classification, HS-4 digit level, based on UNCTAD SSTIS Factor intensity categories: A to G. A:Primary commodities B:Labour intensive and resource based manufactures C:Manufactures with low skill and technology intensity D:Manufactures with medium skill and technology intensity E:Manufactures with high skill and technology intensity F:Energy products G:Unclassified products 37

38 Measuring quality.. Measuring quality of institutions Property Rights, Rule of law, Corruption, Financial measures, investment measures, Business accesses, Trade institutions; Political Rights, Civil Liberties, Measures of, democracy and autocracy, Physical Integrity measures, parliamentary process and political participation; Measures of women s empowerment, Labour rights, social rights and press freedom Methodology Multivariate Statistical Method of latent variable (LV) approach as proposed in Nagar and Basu (22), Basu, Klein and Nagar ( 25) -A composite weighted average measure of standardized indicators for each country for each period defined, without scaling the final index values -IQI is a latent variable, and linearly determined by many exogenous variables say, X1,, X K. -Variation in these variables explain variation in IQI. -Weights are obtained to compute weighted average of IQI 38

39 Some correlates Income and FI categories (Developing countries) Factor Intensity Index Exports of primary commodities and Income per capita SLB ETH RWA MWI SOM KIR STP BFA MRT PRY NIC TON GNB UGA BEN VCT CUB PAN GMB VUT BDI HND TCD COM MNG MDV BLZ LBR TZA AFG KEN MDA CIV PNG GHA GIN GUY GRD ZWE GTM URY SYC LCA MMR TGO SLE MDG UZB BOL ECU FJI CHL ARG MOZ MLI ERI SDN CMR GEO PER SLV DMA LAO DJI BRA CRI NAM TJK CAF SEN MAR BHS NER KGZ VNM SWZ WSM IDN LKA JOR COL JAM MUS KNA BRB DOM IND UKR BIH ARM BTN NPL SYR ALB THALBN GAB KHM ZMB PAK TKM EGY AZE CHN COG BLR KAZ BGR SUR NGA IRQ IRN TUN TUR ZAF BWA HRV GNQ HTI BGD LSO PHL CPV MYS YEM RUS ROM DZA VEN MEX TTO LBY OMN ATG AGO SAU KOR BHR BRN KWT ARE SGP QAT Exports of labour intensive manufactures and Income per capita Factor Intensity Index BWA ZMB CAF TJK MLI ARM KGZ NAM PER GHA SLE MOZ CHL ERI BDI GUY TZA TGO LBN IND BTN ZAF BHR ZWE MNG GIN BIH UZB GEO KAZ PNG BOL BGR SUR ETH DJI URY UGA CMR PAK IDN RUS NER LAO LSO LKA CHN VNMCUB KEN UKRCOL NIC HND ALB BLR EGY NGA CIV IRQ TKM AZE COG MAR PRY JOR ROM FJI BRA MMR PHL THA TURVEN HRV NPL SDN AGO ARE MDA SYR SWZ ECU GTMDOM IRN TUN SLV PAN ARG BRB KOR RWA HTI BGD TONVCT MUS MYS GNB LBR BFA DZA JAM BLZ CRI GAB MEX TCD GMB MWI MDG AFG SOM SEN BEN KHM YEM GRD LBY TTOMN SAU ATG BHS KWT SGP COM MRT KIR STP SLB CPV VUT WSM MDV DMA GNQ LCA SYC KNA BRN QAT Factor Intensity Index Exports of low skill/technology and Income per capita BGD LSO HTI KHM PAK NPL ALB MUS LKA TUN LAOROM TUR UKR CPV VNM CHN MAR IND BGR FJI MDG BIH SLV MMR MDV IDN BLR DOM HRV MDA EGY ZWE SW JOR BTN GTMZ LBN GEO ARM KEN KAZ COL THA ZAF KOR MNG BRAMEX LCA TGO UZB PHL TJK KGZ AFG DJI SYR RUS PER GRD CRI MYS CIV TKM HNDJAM URY TTOBRB ATG NER MW ERI GMB PRY IRN IVCT BLZ PAN ARE CUBVEN ARG BHR GHA NGA CMR NIC IRQ AZE BOL GUY ECU SGP COG DZA NAM BWACHL GABLBY OMN PNG SAU BHSBRN BDI ETH RWA SLE UGA BFA TZA SDN TONDMA KNA TCD CAF GNB MOZ ZMB BEN SEN WSM LBR MLI COM SOM GIN MRT YEM KIR AGO STP SLB VUT SURGNQ SYC KW T QAT GDP per capita GDP per capita GDP per capita Non-LDCs LDCs Fitted values Non-LDCs LDCs Fitted values Non-LDCs LDCs Fitted values High value technology if Factor Intensity Index improves High value technology if Factor Intensity Index improves High value technology if Factor Intensity Index improves Factor Intensity Index Exports of medium skill/technology and Income per capita SUR WSM JAM DMA KNA SWZ MEX BLR JOR LBN KOR HRV SEN ROM DJI CHN TUN THA ATG BRA UKR ZAF COM BIH MAR CPV BGR TUR GRD TTO BRB IND KGZ IDN GEO ARG GIN BTN KHM ARM GTM NAM COL SLV MYS CRI LCA ERI UZB PHL URY GMB KEN VNM ZWE CIV HND VUT RUS MDA PAK AZE LKA KAZ EGY DOM VCT OMN SAU NIC BOL BHR TJK IRQ CMR TKM SYR ALB IRN PER VEN GHAFJI ECU PRY BWA CUB NGA PNG GUY MUS CHL TON BDI RWA TGO NPL NER SLE UGA HTI CAF BFA MOZ MDG AFG LBR BLZ PAN ETH MMR TCD LAO BGD TZA GNB MWI ZMB BEN MLI SOM KIR STP MNG SDN YEM MRT LSO COG DZA GAB GNQ LBY SYC AGO SLB MDV BHS SGP ARE KWT BRN QAT GDP per capita Non-LDCs LDCs Fitted values High value technology if Factor Intensity Index improves Factor Intensity Index Exports of high skill/technology and Income per capita PHL MYS KOR THA CRI CHN MEX ATG SGP JOR BRB ERI GEO IDN IND VNM CUB TJK ZWE NGA UZB PAK CMR IRQ CIV TKM AZE BLR MAR ARE KEN UKR LKA LBN COG SYR SWZ EGY KAZ RUS TUN TUR BRA HRV AFG MDA KGZ ARM GTMDOM PNG COL GHA NIC BOL HND ALB PRY ECU BGR IRN DZA ROM SLV MUS GRD LCA SYC KNA GUY NAM ZAF FJI PER BWA JAM PAN GAB ARG MNG VEN CHL URY LBY TTO BHS BIH BLZ OMN BRN BDI MMR RWA TGO COM TCD ETH NPL SLE UGA GMB CAF NER TZA GNB BFA MOZ MWI SDN LAO GIN HTI BGD KHM MRT ZMB YEM SEN LSO BTN AGO DJI CPV VUT LBRMDV MDG MLI SOM BEN KIR STP SLB WSM TON SUR VCT DMA GNQ SAU BHR KWT QAT GDP per capita Non-LDCs LDCs Fitted values High value technology if Factor Intensity Index improves Factor Intensity Index Exports of energy products and Income per capita NGA IRQ DZA YEM AGO LBY COG SAU IRN VEN TKM OMN AZE GNQ GAB SYR TTO BHR SDN KAZ RUS NER CMR EGY ECU TCD CPV COL SYC ATG GNB VNM IDN BOL SEN PNG BTN LBR MMR CIV BLR MDV KGZ BRB MOZ KEN UZB ARG BEN TUN MYS TJK IND UKR GEO HRV MEX GHA ZWE PAK ARM CHN MAR GTM BGR ROM FJI BHS DJI ZAF BIH NAM PER BLZ LCA LAO LKATUR PHL SWZ ALB THA DOM HND PRY JOR CUB BRA MDA MNG NIC SUR SLV JAM PAN KOR BDI RWA TGO UGA MDG AFG GIN ETH NPL SLE CAF BFA MWI MLI COM ERI SOM HTI BGD KHM GMB MRT TZA ZMB LSO KIR STP SLB GUY VUT WSM TONVCT BWA MUS DMA GRD CRI LBN CHL URY KNA BRN KWT ARE SGP QAT GDP per capita Non-LDCs LDCs Fitted values High value technology if Factor Intensity Index improves 39

40 Differential impacts Factor Intensity Index Exports of primary commodities and Institutions RWA ETH MWI MRT BFA PRY NIC CUB UGA PAN GMB GNB BEN HND BDI TCD MNG CIV TZA KEN PNG MDA GIN GUY URY ZWE GTMGHA TGO MMR UZB SLE MDG ECUFJI ARG CHL MOZ BOL MLI SDN CMR GEO BRA PER SLV CRI LAO DJI SEN NAM TJK MAR CAF VNM NER SWZ JAM JOR COL MUS KGZ LKA SYR IDN DOM GNQ LBN EGY INDUKR ARM GAB ALBTHA NPL TKM PAK IRQ IRN BLR CHN AZE COG KAZ TUR HRV BGR ZAF HTI KHM ZMB TUN MYS BWA BGD OMN LBY SAU NGA ARE DZA QAT KWT RUS PHL LSO ROM YEM BHR MEX TTO VEN SGP AGO KOR Institutional quality index Institutions and FI categories (Developing countries) Factor Intensity Index Exports of labour intensive manufactures and Institutions TJK CAF ZMB ARM BWA SLE KGZ PER NAM MOZ GHA CHL BDI GUY TZA TGO LBN BHR IND ZAF UZB ZWE KAZ GIN GEO PNGBGR BOL MNG CHN IRQ IRN LBY SYR TKM VNM CUB CMR PAK IDNRUS BLR EGY SAU NGA DZA AZE COG MAR ARE KEN QAT SWZ CIVOMN TUN JOR UKR LKA COL MYS TUR VEN KWT GAB PHL ALB ROM THA PRY HRV BRA URY HND FJI MMR SDN AGO LAO ETH DJI UGA NER LSO NIC ECU GTM DOM MEX MDA SGP SLV KOR ARG PAN MUS JAM TTO CRI GNQ RWA NPL HTI BGD BFA YEMTCD KHM GMB SEN MRT GNB MWI MDG BEN Institutional quality index MLI Factor Intensity Index Exports of low skill/technology and Institutions BGD HTI PAK KHM NPL LKA LSO ALB MUS LAO TUN TUR ROM UKR CHN VNM MAR IND FJI BGR MDG SLV MMR BLR EGY IDN DOM HRV ZWE SWZ JOR MDA LBN GTM KAZ COL GEO ARM THA BRA ZAF KOR SYR UZB KEN PHL MEX MNG TGO DJI IRN TKM TJK GMB CUB IRQLBY SAU CMR NGA DZA AZE QAT CIV ARE RUS KGZ MYS PER BHR HND OMN VENECU PRY COG KWT GAB PNG GHA NIC BOLGUY SGP ARG JAM URYTTO CRI NER MWI PAN NAM BWA SDN CHL GNQ AGO BDI RWA YEM TCD ETH SLE UGA TZABFA GIN MRT CAF ZMB MOZ SEN BEN GNB MLI Institutional quality index Non-LDCs LDCs Fitted values High value technology if Factor Intensity Index improves Non-LDCs LDCs Fitted values High value technology if Factor Intensity Index improves Non-LDCs LDCs Fitted values High value technology if Factor Intensity Index improves Factor Intensity Index Exports of medium skill/technology and Institutions BLR LBN JOR KOR HRV SEN ROM CHN DJI TUN THA BRA UKR MAR TUR BGR SGP ZAF TTO GIN IND ARG UZB VNM SAU ZWE IRQ IRN LBY SYR TKM CUB CMR PAK EGY CIV IDN COL KGZ MYS GEO KHM ARM GTM SLV NAM RUS PHL URY CRI GMB AZE KAZ QAT OMN ARE KEN BHR LKA DOM HND TGO NPL SLE MDA HTI NER TJK KWT VEN ALB ECU PER PRY GHA FJI NIC BOL BWA MUS CHL RWA UGA NGA DZA COG GAB PNG GUY PAN MMR SDN GNQ AGO LAO BDI BGD CAF TZA BFAZMB MOZ MDG YEM TCDETH MRT GNB MWI BEN MLI LSO MNG SWZ MEX JAM Factor Intensity Index Exports of high skill/technology and Institutions CHN MYS PHL THA MEX SGP KOR JOR IDN IRQIRN LBY SYR UZB TKM VNM CUB GEO MAR IND HRV SAU ZWE CMR PAK TJKBLR NGA EGY DZA AZE CIV ARE LBN COG KAZ QAT SWZ OMN KEN RUS TUN UKR COL LKA TUR KWT BHR KGZ VEN ARM GAB ALB GTM BRA DOM ECU PNG ROM PRY PER HND MDA GHA FJI NIC BGR BOL SLV MUS ZAF GUY NAM ARG BWA JAM PAN MMR SDN GNQ AGO LAO BDI RWA YEM TGO TCD ETH GIN NPL HTI BGD DJI KHM SLE UGA GMB MRT CAF NER TZAGNB BFA SEN LSO ZMB MOZMWI MDG BEN MLI MNG CHL URYTTO CRI Factor Intensity Index IRQ LBY IRN SDN MMR Exports of energy products and Institutions NGA DZA AGO YEM KWT SAU QAT COG TKM GNQ AZE OMN SYR BHR VEN GAB ARE KAZ RUS CMR EGY NER ECU TCD COL TTO VNM IDN BLR GNB BOL CIV SEN PNG UZB KEN KGZ TUN MYS MOZ ARG TJK INDUKR GEO HRV MEX CHN CUB ZWE PAK SWZ MAR LBN JOR LKA TUR ARM PHL ALB GTM DOM ROM THA BRA PER PRY HND MDA GHA FJI BGR SGP ZAF LAO NIC SLV KOR NAM JAMPAN BDI RWA TGO ETH GIN DJI UGA NPL HTI BGD KHM SLE GMB MRT CAF TZA BFAZMB MWI LSO MDGBEN MLI GUY BWA MNG MUS CHL URY CRI Institutional quality index Institutional quality index Institutional quality index Non-LDCs LDCs Fitted values Non-LDCs LDCs Fitted values Non-LDCs LDCs Fitted values High value technology if Factor Intensity Index improves High value technology if Factor Intensity Index improves High value technology if Factor Intensity Index improves 4

41 Specifications Empirical Model Specification: Core specification (OLS) in Cross-section analysis Dep.var: Factor intensity category (A to G) Indep.Vars: Institutions, economic policies and geography Further issues: Reverse causality: Empirical Methodology Dealing with endogeneity 2SLS-IV and GMM-IV specification Choice of appropriate specifications Panel data: Fixed effects estimates System GMM 41

42 Empirics Model specification IQI=institutional quality index EPOL: economic policy, infrastructure, financial variables GEOG: geography variable (distance from equator) Core cross-section specification FI A G i = α + α IQI + α EPOL + α GEOG + ε i 4 i i Reverse causality and instruments IQI i EPOL = β + β AJR / HJ i 1 = θ + θ EPOL i i + β EPOLC + θ AJR / 3 3 HJ i i + β GEOG + θ GEOG 4 4 i i + ε + ε IQI i EPOL i

43 Model specification: Panel data* Core panel specification FI A G it = α + α IQI + α EPOL + ε i 2 it 3 it it Dynamic panel specification (AB/BB) FI A G it = γ FI A G i, t 1 + β IQI 1 it + β EPOL 2 it + ε it *Results not reported here..

44 Robustness checks Further exploration Independent variables: Macroeconomic: Inflation, REER, Fiscal Balance Financial: Credit to private sector Infrastructure: Telephone lines, Road, Railway Geography: Tropical, Population close to coast Natural Resource: Fuel, Arable land Level of development: Non-linearity of GDP pc 44

45 Cross-section Dependent variable: Factor intensity, national exports share (%), average Panel 1 FI_A FI_B FI_C FI_D FI_E FI_F IQI *** *** *** R-squared F-stat (p-value) #Countries Note : Robust SE, t-stat in parentheses *** Sig 1%, ** Sig 5%, *Sig 1%

46 Policy variables Cross-section Dependent variable: Factor intensity, national exports share (%), average Panel 1 FI_A FI_B FI_C FI_D FI_E FI_F IQI *** ** *** *** Geography *** ** ***.61164* Human capital *** * *** Infrastructure ** * Financial market *** ** *** *** R-squared F-stat (p-value) #Countries Note : Robust SE, Constants are included, ** Sig 1%, ** Sig 5%, *Sig 1%

47 Policy variables Cross-section (developing countries) Dependent variable: Factor intensity, national exports share (%), average Panel 1 FI_A FI_B FI_C FI_D FI_E FI_F IQI *** ** ** *** Geography Human capital *** * *** Infrastructure ** * Financial market ** *** R-squared F-stat (p-value) #Countries Note : Robust SE, Constants are included, ** Sig 1%, ** Sig 5%, *Sig 1%

48 Summary Conclusions South market share is on rise, but Asia is main driver of this new dynamism. South exports factor-intensity content is changing, with more rising share is coming from medium to high-skilled and technology content products in goods trade. Preliminary empirical results identify the positive role of institutional quality in determining stages of factor-contents of developing countries goods exports during In the benchmark model specification, the higher level of institutional quality, along with economic policies and other related factors, leads to higher factor-contents of technology related exported products. Results can answer some specific issues related to regions that help us to understand the new-geography models of trade theory. It also indicates the key role of supply side factors and/or the domestic policies in understanding the transformation of countries trade structure. The analysis is important to understand the climbing up of ladder by South-South economies in new geography of international trade. Need to re-emphasize the hand-in-hand approach in making institutional quality and supply-side factors to work together to raise policy coherence and help develop inclusive trade and development strategy at the national level. 48

49 Thank you! Fax:

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