Where was Services Trade Liberalized: FTA or WTO?

Transcription

1 Where was Services Trade Liberalized: FTA or WTO? London School of Economics ECIPE, 11 April 2013

2 Table of contents Introduction Motivation Framework Findings Policy

3 Before starting.. Joint work with Sébastien Miroudot (OECD) The Economics and PE of going beyond the GATS About political economy of commitments provisions! Based on detailed quantification for each W120 sector

4 Commitments Gap Commitments (ln) VNM IND PAK IDN NIC NIC IDN PAK IND ALB MKD MAR GTM SLV HND PER ALB DOM HRV JOR JAM PAN CHL CHN MEX MKD MYS JOR MYS JAM MEX DOM PHL THA PHL MAR SLV PER GTM HND PAN HRV CRI CRI CHL EU EU KOR KOR ISL CAN USA SGP ISL USA CAN SGP NOR JPN CHE NOR CHE JPN GDP per capita (ln) GATS RTA

5 Motivation Commitments in services beyond GATS Multilateral liberalization greater gains As with goods RTAs, goes against theory Why this pattern then? Political economy

6 What do we know? High-skilled labour abundance is important Roy (2009), Eggar & Lanz (2008) International bargaining considerations (FIN) Harms et al. (2003) Services RTA: role of OECD countries, CA VanGrasstek (2011)

7 Our framework International trade & PE literature on services Geography (trade costs / gravity) Systemic forces (role of the US) Economic forces (market size / labour) Institutions (regulators)

8 EU & US EU US Commitments Commitments Year Year RTA GATS RTA GATS

9 Others Commitments NZL Year Commitments CRI Year RTA GATS RTA GATS

10 Geography Greater distance between countries sharing FTA, gap Transportation costs as factor Neighboring countries sharing FTA, gap Countries inclined to commit with further-away countries

11 Systemic Once EU or US as trading partner in FTA, gap ( FIN!) Shared responsibility to keep up world trading system? Growing role of US in world economy induces others to gap Hegemonic role? Especially in TRNS and BUS, plus DISTR

12 Economic Some evidence richer countries, on the whole, gap Role of market size, especially in FIN and CNSTR Some evidence for high-skilled labour share, gap More important: greater mid-skilled labour share, gap Also, smaller differences between countries in high-skilled labour share and GDP, gap

13 Institutions Higher degree of democracies, gap Factor-owners-as-consumer concern for services lib? E.g. EU Stronger quality of (national) regulators or gov, gap Ability to provide post-liberalization templates Capacity to deal with universal service supply

14 Policy Conclusions Geography (transpor costs) and market size Contingent on logistics and infrastructure in goods (GVC) Systemic forces (EU & US) difficult to neglect Mid-skilled labour regressing determinant North-South agreements mid-skilled labour real concern Role of strong regulators (and high-skilled) Competition policy, regulatory efficiency North-North agreements higher commitments (T)ISA