Measuring the Pollution Terms of Trade with Technique Effects

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1 Measuring the Pollution Terms of Trade with Technique Effects Jean-Marie Grether, University of Neuchâtel Nicole Mathys, Swiss Federal Office of Energy and University of Neuchâtel Conference on the International Dimensions of Climate Policies Berne, January

2 Motivation I Fact: There are differences in environmental regulations across countries Fear: There could be a reallocation of polluting production units from high stringency countries to low stringency countries This possibility is called: Pollution haven hypothesis in environmental literature Carbon leakage in climate change literature 2

3 Motivation II Many studies have tried to identify these effects, results are however not clear-cut Antweiler (1996) developed the concept of pollution terms of trade (PTT) to identify pollution haven countries. His study is however limited by pollution data that have no temporal dimension nor technical effects between countries (only composition is captured). more research is needed 3

4 Motivation III This paper uses: the concept of PTT based on IO relationships SO 2 emission data that is country, sector and period specific (SO 2 : cooling effect, early example of emission trading, is regional pollutant!) additional re-export data to control for entrepot trade 4

5 We find that: A first glance at results between sector effect is rather increasing in GPD per capita between country effect is rather decreasing in GDP per capita technical effect is rather decreasing in GDP per capita total effect is rather decreasing in GDP per capita 5

6 Content of presentation 1. Motivation 2. Theoretical background 3. Data 4. Results 5. Conclusions 6

7 The pollution content per unit of exports: where: A ct[1 I] X ct[i 1] ' j I[1 I] 2. Theoretical Background X ct F = A : vector of total emission intensities incl. IO relationships : export vector of country c at year t : unit vector ct ct ' I Xct j X 7

8 The pollution content per unit of imports where: F A jt[1 I] M ct M jct[i 1] ' j I[1 I] = j c (A ' I j : vector of total emission intensities incl. IO relationships : import vector of country c from country j at year t : unit vector jt M M ct cjt ) 8

9 Pollution terms of trade (PTT) index = ratio between the pollution content per unit of exports and the pollution content per unit of imports X Fct χct = M Fct If PTT > 1 country c's exports are on average more pollution intensive than its imports. 9

10 The PTT index captures three different effects: χ ct = ~ χ χ ˆχ ct ct ct ct ~ χ ct χ ˆχ ct : between sector effect (Antweiler case) : between country effect : technical effect 10

11 3. Data SO 2 emission intensities for manufacturing sectors, 62 countries in 1990, 1995 and 2000 (constructed in Grether et al (2008)) IO matrix from World Bank/GTAP Trade data from World Bank/COMTRADE Necessary adjustments: assure conformity between production and trade data control for re-exports assure sectoral match 11

12 4. Results Between-sector effect KWT BOL CHL VEN EGY ZAF ECU PER AUS IDNJOR ROW CAN COL HUN GRC SGP ISL MAR BRAARG ESP GBR FIN NLD NOR SEN TUN NZL BLX AUT KEN CHN PHL TUR MEX PRT CYP IRL ISR DEUDNK FRA SWE USA MYS URY KOR ITA HKG BGD IND PAN POL TWN CRI JPN MWI HND MAC NPL PAK MUS Between-country effect IDN POL CHN CHLMEX PHL TUN ZAF IND KWT KEN PAK HND BGD EGY MAR PERTUR SEN ROW HUN CYP ISL ECU JOR AUS BLX COL BRA ESP ISR FIN CAN KOR GRC IRL MAC MWI PAN VEN URY PRT CRI MUSARG DEU DNK MYS SGPNZL GBR NLD FRA TWN ITA SWE USA AUT BOL HKG NOR NPL JPN CHL KWT IDN ZAF CHN EGY PER TUN MAR PHL POL ROW VEN MEX ECU HUN AUS ISL KEN TUR SENJOR CAN IND COL CYP BLX BRA GRC ESP ISR FIN BGD HND ARG IRL NLD PAK PRT SGP URY NZL KOR DEU GBR DNK BOL PAN FRA CRI MAC MWI MYS SWENOR USA ITAAUT MUS TWN HKG NPL Total effect JPN Share of variance explained: BSE: 0.33 BCE:

13 Between-sector effect LAS AFR ROW SAM EUR HAS NAM Between-region effect LAS AFRSAM ROW EUR HAS NAM AFR SAM LAS ROW Total effect EUR HAS NAM AFR: Africa EUR: Europe HAS: High income Asia LAS: Low income Asia NAM: North America ROW: Rest of the World SAM: South America 13

14 Between-sector effect Between-country effect KWT VEN CHL EGY PER ZAF AUS KEN SEN COL GRC ISL BOL ECU ROW JOR PAN MAR ARG CYP SGP CAN BLX BRA ESPDEUDNK FIN GBR NLD IRL POL HUN FRA HKGAUT IDN KOR NZL SWE ISRITA IND CHN PHLTUN TUR MYS URY MEX PRT TWNJPN MWI CRI NPL PAK BGD HND MUS MAC NOR USA IDN CHNTUN CHL MEX POL HND PER ZAF PAK EGY MAR PHL TUR MAC KWT BGD IND ROW ECU BRA HUN GRCYP ESP ISRAUS BLX ISL MWI KEN SENJOR VEN FIN CAN COLURY PRT CRI ARG DEUDNK IRL PAN MUS KOR GBR NLD MYS NZL SGP ITA FRA SWE BOL TWN AUT HKG NPL JPN USA NOR NPL Technique effect HND IDN MWI PAK BOL ECU PAN KEN SENJOR PER CHL MUS PRT ROWTUN MAC AUS BGD IND EGY ARG CYP GRC ESP ISR FRA ISL JPN SWE MARTUR ZAF MEX POL NZL AUT NLD COL BRA FIN IRL PHL VENMYS CAN CHN CRI URY KOR ITA TWNDEU GBR SGPHKG BLX HUN KWT DNK USA NOR Total effect CHL IDNPER ZAF TUN POL HND EGY KWT AUSISL KEN SEN ECU MAR ROW JOR VEN MEX CHN PAN TUR GRC PRT CYPESP COL BRA ARG ISR FIN CAN IRL MWI PAK PHL IND MAC BLX NLD BOL URY HUN NZL SGP DEU FRA SWE GBR NPL MYS KOR AUT DNK BGD MUS ITA CRI TWN HKG JPN USA NOR Share of variance explained: BSE: 0.20; BCE: 0.63; TCE:

15 Between-sector effect AFR ROW SAM LAS EUR HAS NAM Between-region effect LAS AFRSAM ROW EUR HAS NAM Technique effect ROWSAM LAS AFR HAS EUR NAM AFR SAM LAS ROW Total effect EUR HAS NAM

16 5. Conclusions Between-sector effect might indeed give counter-intuitive results Between-country effect explains the main part of the total variation of PTT We find evidence for the Pollution Haven Hypothesis 16

17 Many thanks for your attention! 17

18 Appendix I - IO If I is the total number of industries, the following inputoutput relationship holds for each country and year: Q = BQ + D = (I B) 1 D Q ] where [I 1] is the output vector, B [I I is the intermediate input coefficient matrix, D [I 1] is final demand and is the identity matrix. I [I I] 18

19 Appendix II - IO Total SO 2 emissions embodied in a given final demand vector, denoted by, are given by: e e = PQ = P(I B) 1 D = AD where P [1 I] is the original vector of emission intensities (in physical pounds per US dollar) and A 1 [ 1 I] = P(I B) is the vector of total emission intensities including inputoutput relationships. 19

20 Appendix III - IO Difference in the distribution of partial (or direct) and total (or direct+indirect) SO 2 emissions intensities Kernel densities of SO2 emission intensities ln of Kg per 1000 USD initial intensity total intensity 20

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