The Doha Development Agenda
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1 The Doha Development Agenda Why is it taking so long? RIETI BBL Seminar 19 November 2008 Tokyo Johann Human Director: Rules Division WTO Secretariat
2 DDA History: Uruguay Round Built-in Agenda Agriculture Services Seattle Ministerial Doha - Nov 2001
3 DDA Cancun - September 2003 Hong Kong - December 2005 July 2006, Potsdam, July 2008 December 2008?
4 DDA Uruguay Round versus DDA: UR: Target was 4 years September December 1993 DDA: Target was 4 years November ?
5 DDA Deadlines: Why set deadlines? US Trade Negotiating Authority Effect of missing deadlines
6 DDA - Factors Timing after implementation of UR Political factor: post- 11 September 2001 Support by major players for a new round Position of small players post-ur Implementation issues difficult issues deferred Interest of industry
7 DDA - Factors Member-driven organization Role of DG Length of appointment Role of DDGs - length of appointment Role of Secretariat Rules-based system Legalism vs pragmatism Lawyers involved in process from start Role of Chairpersons of NGs
8 DDA Factors Role of informal groups UR Quad De la Paix Group Café Ole Others/Facilitators? DDA G-20 G-11 ACP African Group Cairns Others
9 DDA Factors Role of informal groups Primarily political groupings Trade interests of members of Groups vary substantially and across issues Absence of a Quad approach
10 DDA - Factors Consensus rule Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed Too many negotiators? UR - 96 CPs in CPs in participants DDA Members July 2008 experiment 36 Ministers in Green Room Reduce to Group of 7 Ministers Issues of inclusiveness and transparency
11 DDA Factors Nature of tariff negotiations: Before UR request/offer process UR 1988 Montreal Ministerial agreed on basic formula cut(swiss formula) Exceptions negotiated later DDA modalities Exceptions negotiated as part of the modalities Draft NAMA Modalities Document of 110 pages
12 DDA - Factors Super specialization of negotiators Geneva dynamics
13 DDA So where does all this lead us to? Nature of future Rounds? Ongoing negotiations all the time? Structure of negotiations?
14 Trade Remedies Current situation
15 Trade Remedies Anti Dumping Countervailing Measures Safeguards
16 ANTI-DUMPING NUMBER OF MEASURES Total:
17 ANTI-DUMPING MEASURES BY IMPORTING COUNTRY 1995 June India Total: Japan Australia Brazil Mexico Canada China Turkey South Africa Argentina US EU
18 ANTI-DUMPING MEASURES BY EXPORTING COUNTRY 1995 June Total: Brazil Indonesia India Thailand Russia Japan US Chinese Taipei Korea China
19 XIX XX XVII XVIII Mach/Elect Metals XIV ANTI-DUMPING INITIATIONS BY SECTOR 1995 June 2008 Total: I II III IV V Chemicals Plastics VIII IX Paper Tex/Cloth XII Cement/Glass
20 ANTI-DUMPING MEASURES 1995 June 2008 Developed / Developing Members TOTAL MEASURES: Developing 68% Whose exports are affected and who imposed the measures? Total Developing 75% Total 682 Developed 32% Developing 80% Developed 25% Developed 20% Developed Members' Measures Developing Members' Measures
21 COUNTERVAILING MEASURES BY YEAR Total:
22 COUNTERVAILING MEASURES BY IMPORTING MEMBER 1995 June EC US Total: Venezuela Japan Costa Rica Chile Australia Peru South Africa New Zealand Argentina Brazil Mexico Canada
23 COUNTERVAILING MEASURES: EXPORTING MEMBER 1995 June India EC Total: Japan Venezuela Thailand Malaysia Canada South Africa Argentina China Indonesia Brazil Korea
24 COUNTERVAILING MEASURES BY SECTOR 1995 June 2008 Other Plastics Vegetables Prep Food Metals 24
25 SAFEGUARD MEASURES BY IMPORTING MEMBER 1995 June 2008 Total: Japan Philippines Czech Jordan US Chile India Turkey 25
26 SAFEGUARDS INITIATIONS: Total:
27 Trade Remedy Measures Imposed Between 1995 and June 2008 Safeguards: 87 Anti-Dumping: CVDs: 121 Total: * As notified to the WTO 27
28 Anti-Dumping Initiations Against Japan:
29 Anti-Dumping Initiations Against Japan: Importing Countries Argentina Australia Canada China EC India Korea US Others
30 Anti-Dumping Measures Against Japan:
31 Anti-Dumping Measures Against Japan: Importing Countries Argentina Australia Canada China EC India Korea US Others
32 Anti-Dumping Measures Against Japan: Sectors % 13% 32% 29% 17% Chemicals Plastics Metals Machinery Others
33 Anti-Dumping Duration of Measures Against Japan >25 Years Years Years Years <10 Years 10 1 US Australia India Argentina
34 Trade Remedies Future? Increase in protectionism? Anti-Dumping? Countervailing measures? Safeguards? WTO-inconsistent support programmes? Grey area measures? More disputes?
35 Trade Remedies It might be a somewhat bumpy ride, so... Ladies and gentlemen, please fasten your seat-belts!
36 THANK YOU!
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