Argentina s Economy: A death foretold again, or a surprise rescue? Claudio M. Loser Centennial- Latin America March 2014

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1 Argentina s Economy: A death foretold again, or a surprise rescue? Claudio M. Loser Centennial- Latin America March 214

2 Argentine performance tended to be ahead the world and even the Emerging Economies according to Official Data Emerging market and developing economies Argentina (Official) 2 Latin America and the Caribbean 4/3/214

3 but not according to independent estimates Emerging market and developing economies Argentina Adjusted Latin America and the Caribbean Argentina (Official) 3 4/3/214

4 Argentina has lost relative positions in total Latin American GDP adj Brazil Mexico Argentina Colombia Venezuela Chile Peru Other 4

5 How is Inflation doing? LA Argentina Official Argentina Alternative 5

6 Argentina has lagged, even as in recent years it picked up (even with corrected data) Argentina Adjusted Argentina Brazil Chile Mexico Peru 5.. 6

7 11 TFP Growth vs. TFP Level, Major Economies, United States TFP (US TFP in 2 = 1) US, 198 Russia United Kingdom France Canada Germany Japan Argentina South Africa Venezuela Brazil Peru Australia Mexico Colombia Chile Korea 3 China Indonesia India Average Annual Change in TFP,

8 Where do countries stand Infrastructure Quality of Education Chile Colombia Argentina Mexico Brazil Venezuela Peru Technology Readiness Ease of Doing Business Rankings (higher number, worse) Chile Peru Colombia Mexico Argentina Brazil Venezuela

9 Informality and Economic Development

10 The education quality is low in spite of high average spending Mean scores on PISA math test, 29 Source: Ganimian and Solano (211). PREAL 1

11 Argentina s science graduation is low Tertiary Graduates in Science and Engineering, Hong Kong Korea Finland Mexico Spain Colombia Chile Ireland El Salvador Panama South Africa United States Guatemala Guyana Argentina Brazil Costa Rica Ecuador Uruguay % of total tertiary graduates % of Graduates in Science and Technology % of Graduates in Social Science, Business, and Law Source: UNESCO (211). Global Education Digest. Table

12 Investment and Savings (1 year average) High Income Asia NICs Developing Africa Latin America Investment Savings Investment Savings

13 115 Resilience score by country group Advanced economies All EMCs Latin America 13

14 Argentina is losing its advantage: HDI Argentina.8 Very High human development.75.7 High human development.65 Latin America and the Caribbean.6 World

15 A simple look at Reinhart and Rogoff This time it is different 15

16 GDP Growth rates: Past and projected

17 Gross Public Debt to GDP has declined, while that of the Advanced Countries Grows 14 Adv. G 2 12 Brazil 1 Venezuela 8 LATAM Argentina 6 Mexico 4 Colombia Peru 2 Chile

18 6% Net Investment Position / GDP 4% Argentina Net Investment Position / GDP 2% % 2% Brazil Chile Mexico 4% Venezuela 6% 18

19 25. Real Exchange Rate Depreciation (decline) Brazil Chile Mexico Venezuela RREER Argentina Argentina Corrected LATAM 19

20 8. Argentina: Fiscal and External Accounts Fiscal Outcome(percent of GDP) Fiscal Primary Outcome (percent of GDP) Ext C/A(% GDP) REER

21 Argentina: External Accounts (U$S 15, Million) 1, 5, 5, 1, 15, e External Current Account Total Financing plus e&o Reserves and related items 21

22 Commodity Prices (1995=1) Terms of Trade 22 Per capita Income 1998M1 1998M6 1998M M4 1999M9 2M2 2M7 2M12 21M5 21M1 22M3 22M8 23M1 23M6 23M11 24M4 24M9 25M2 25M7 25M12 26M5 26M1 27M3 27M8 28M1 28M6 28M11 29M4 29M9 21M2 21M7 21M12 211M5 211M1 212M3 212M8 213M1 213M6 213M All Commodities Food and Beverages

23 Income per Capita PPP US$ 213 Qatar Argentina(adj) Luxembourg Mexico Singapore Turkey Norway Venezuela Brunei Darussalam Brazil United States South Africa Hong Kong SAR Peru Switzerland Colombia Canada Ecuador Australia Thailand Germany China United Kingdom Dominican Republic Japan Egypt Barbados Morocco Trinidad and Tobago Bolivia Hungary Indonesia Chile India Russia Zimbabwe Uruguay DR Congo Panama Source: WEO October

24 Human Development Index Doing Business WB Global competitiv Index HDI Rank Country Norway Australia United States Netherlands Germany Canada South Korea Hong Kong, China.96 4 Chile Argentina Uruguay Russian Federation Mexico Venezuela Peru Brazil Colombia China South Africa Indonesia India DR Congo.34 1 Singapore 2 Hong Kong, China 3 New Zealand 4 United States 5 Denmark 7 Korea, Rep. 8 Georgia 11 Australia 34 Chile 41 South Africa 42 Peru 43 Colombia 53 Mexico 88 Uruguay 92 Russian Federation 96 China 116 Brazil 12 Indonesia 126 Argentina 134 India 181 Venezuela, RB Chad Economy GCI Rank Change since Switzerland 1 Singapore 2 Finland 3 Germany 4 2 United States 5 2 Sweden 6 2 Hong Kong SAR 7 2 Netherlands 8 3 Japan 9 1 United Kingdom 1 2 China 29 Chile 34 1 Indonesia South Africa 53 1 Mexico 55 2 Brazil 56 8 India 6 1 Peru 61 Russian Federation 64 3 Colombia 69 Uruguay Argentina 14 1 Venezuela Chad 148 9

25 Corruption Economic Freedom Country Rank Country / Territory CPI 213 Score 1 Denmark 91 1 New Zealand 91 3 Finland 89 3 Sweden 89 5 Norway 86 5 Singapore 86 7 Switzerland 85 8 Netherlands 83 9 Australia 81 9 Canada Uruguay Chile Brazil South Africa 42 8 China 4 83 Peru Colombia India Argentina Mexico Indonesia Russia Venezuela Somalia 8 Hong Kong SAR Singapore Australia Switzerland New Zealand Canada Chile Mauritius Ireland United States Colombia Uruguay Peru Mexico South Africa Indonesia Brazil India China Russia Argentina Venezuela Cuba Korea, North

26 Where to eat, and where to live (Jan.214, Numbeo) CPI+RENT Restaurant Local PP 26 Big Mac(U$S) Zurich New York Caracas Washington, DC Tokyo, Japan Miami Rio de Janeiro Sao Paulo Panama Montevideo Buenos Aires Lima Santiago Mexico City Bogota

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