The future contribution of Bioenergy to the European Energy system

Transcription

1 WBA Position Paper May 2014 The future contribution of Bioenergy to the European Energy system - How to reduce the dependence on fossil energy imports and improve the climate mitigation policy A WBA position paper presented at the Workshop "Reducing Dependence on Russian Natural Gas- with Bioenergy" Renaissance Brussels Hotel- Brussels, May 12, 2014, 8:30-11:30 "

2 Executive Summary Issues of the security of the energy supply coupled with a responsible climate mitigation policy rose to new level of urgency during the last weeks. The tensions in the Ukraine demonstrate the vulnerability of an energy system depending strongly on gas imports from Russia. The last reports of the IPCC make clear that only a strong reduction in the use of fossil fuels will permit the world to not exceed the 2 C target is this century. An accelerated deployment of renewable energy sources (RES) in combination with an associated energy efficiency policy would be the best strategy to mitigate both problems. Therefore the World Bioenergy Association (WBA) backs a concept for the accelerated deployment of Renewables published by the European Renewable Energy Council in In the view of the WBA this concept should be the guideline for the European policy concerning renewable energy. A fast deployment of biomass according to this concept would allow Europe to replace two thirds of the present European gas imports from Russia with biomass by If all Renewables were pushed accordingly Europe would become independent from Russian gas imports by 2030 WBA is convinced, that it is possible for Europe by 2030 To become independent on Russian gas imports To reduce the overall import dependence of energy from 60% to below 30% and thus improve the energy security, To reach a 50% reduction in CO2 emissions by achieving a share of 45% of energy from renewables, To increase the employment in the renewable energy industry by 1,7 million jobs in 2020 and 3,4 million jobs in 2030 as compared to The WBA urges the European Union to follow this concept in order to demonstrate other continents how a successful strategy in transforming the energy system can be implemented with benefits for the people, the economy and the environment. #

3 Introduction Two issues, the security of the energy supply as well as a reliable climate mitigation policy rose to a new level of urgency during the last weeks. The tensions in the Ukraine demonstrate the vulnerability of an energy system depending strongly on gas imports from Russia. The last reports of the IPCC make clear that only a strong reduction in the use of fossil fuels will permit the world to not exceed the 2 C target is this century. An accelerated deployment of renewable energy sources (RES) in combination with an associated energy efficiency policy would be the best strategy to mitigate both problems: the security of the energy supply and climate protection. Biomass is the most important RES and shows a constant growth over the last decades in Europe. Table 1: gross inland consumption in EU 27, Mtoe Growth/year % All RES 73,1 99,6 121,6 141,0 172,1 4,37 Biomass 44,6 63,5 83,0 98,4 118,2 5,0 Source: : European Biomass Statistics, AEBIOM 2010; 2010: European Bioenergy Outlook AEBIOM. As can be seen in table 1, biomass comes up for more than 60% of all RES in Europe. Over the last two decades the growth rate for primary energy from biomass was 5% per year. Biomass: Possible contribution to final energy until 2030 In the year 2010 EREC, the European Renewable Energy Council published the study RE-thinking 2050, with clear intermediate targets for the development of all Renewables and of bioenergy until the year This EREC publication was the result of a close cooperation of experts coming from all renewable energy technologies including bioenergy. It delivers a good information about the possible contribution of bioenergy to the European energy system until The results are expressed in terms of final energy. The WBA backs this EREC study. In the view of WBA this EREC concept should be the guideline for the European policy concerning renewable energy. The study proposes a pathway towards a 45% share of renewables of the final energy demand in We present here the main results: Table 2: Contribution of renewable energy to final energy consumption (Mtoe), EU Growth/year % Hydro 27, ,2 0,9 Biomass 77,8 175, ,7 Wind, PV 9,4 56, ,7 Other RES 1) 2,4 25, ,5 TOTAL RES ,5 Total Final energy in EU ,3 %&'()*+,-%./.0 # $

4 According to this projection the final contribution of biomass would develop from 77,8 Mtoe in 2007 to 226 Mtoe in 2030, this equals an annual growth of 4,7%, a bit less than in the last two decades. This means that in the next two decades biomass will remain by far the most important renewable energy carrier, although wind and photovoltaic will grow faster. Whereas hydro, wind and photovoltaic only deliver electricity, biomass contributes to final energy in the form of electricity, heat and transport fuels. It is the only energy carrier that delivers renewable transport fuels. Yet, the lion share of biomass, more than 70% goes to the heating sector as is presented in table 3. Table 3: Contribution of biomass to final energy Mtoe EREC 2030 EREC Electricity 8,8 21,5 21,5 Heat 61,0 120,0 165,0 biofuels 8,0 34,0 40,0 TOTAL 77,8 175,5 226,5 The conversion of biomass to electricity always delivers heat also. This heat is used (as process or distributed heat) or lost. In any case the primary energy needed to generate electricity is bigger than the final energy delivered. The primary energy needed in form of biomass to deliver the above mentioned quantity of final energy can be calculated and is presented in table 4. Table 4: Gross inland consumption of bioenergy, Mtoe Biomass Source: 2007, 2010 AEBIOM STAT, 2020, 2030 derived from EREC re-thinking, WBA calculation To provide these quantities, biomass from Europe and imported biomass are needed. An overview is presented in the ANNEX to this paper. Bioenergy and fossil gas On average Europe consumes 500 billion m fossil gas per year, of which 35% is used for the generation of electricity, 40% for the heating of buildings and 25% for industry and other purposes. 65% of the total quantity is imported. Almost 30% of the European gas supply comes from Russia (140 billion m). When expressed in Mtoe this means per year as an average 150 Mtoe is used for the generation of electricity, 170 Mtoe for heating and 110 Mtoe for the industry, so in total 430 Mtoe. By 2011 the total gas import reached 266 Mtoe, 120 Mtoe coming from Russia. The total use of fossil fuels for the heating sector the total of all coal, oil and gas is in the order of 250Mtoe, 68% of which is covered by fossil gas. Gas plays a dominant role in the European heat supply for industry process heat, for district heating plants and for domestic gas boilers. According to the EREC concept the additional quantity of biomass required for production of heat would be 59 Mtoe in 2020 and 104 Mtoe in Assuming that biomass for heat replaces fossil fuels in direct relation to their present use in the heating sector biomass could replace 40 Mtoe fossil gas in 2020 and 70 Mtoe fossil gas in Electricity generation based on fossil fuels is presently in the order of 1700 TWh, 44% of this quantity is generated using fossil gas. A similar calculation of replacement of fossil gas by biomass for the electricity sector shows that biomass could replace 13 Mtoe fossil gas now used for the generation of electricity. 3

5 As a conclusion: a fast deployment of biomass according to the EREC concept would allow to replace 53Mtoe fossil gas in 2020 and 83 Mtoe fossil gas in By 2030 biomass could replace two thirds of the present European gas imports from Russia. Renewable Energy Sources (RES) and fossil gas The role of biomass has to be seen within an integrated concept of the deployment of RES. And so the development of solar heat according to the EREC concept would help to replace another 20 Mtoe fossil gas in the heating sector in The fast development of electricity production from wind and solar PV would deliver 550 TWh of additional electricity supply by 2020 as compared to 2007 and 1280 TWh in Using the same calculation model as above this would allow wind and solar PV to replace 47 Mtoe fossil gas by 2020 and 110 Mtoe fossil gas by 2030 in the electricity generation. These figures are summarized in table 5 showing the quantity of fossil gas that can be substituted by RES by Table 5: Replacement of fossil gas 2020 by biomass, solar thermal, wind and photovoltaic Bioenergy Other RES Total Heat Electricity Total Source: WBA calculation In 2020 a quantity of 105 Mtoe of fossil gas could be replaced by renewables in the heating and electricity sector. This means that a fast deployment of all RES according to the EREC concept would allow Europe to reduce the consumption of fossil gas by 25% by 2020 and thus replace 90% of the gas imports from Russia is only an intermediate step. The continuation of a policy in favour of RES makes it possible to reduce the gas consumption by almost 50% in 2030 and makes Europe almost independent on gas imports. Table 6: Replacement of fossil gas 2030 by RES, Mtoe Bioenergy Other RES Total Heat Electricity Total Source: WBA calculation "#$%&'#()*('%(+",$#-.(/(0&12('-&,$003456&*0.1(728-4*7&1(-&9(%&2(8'.(1('.('-&, 3*##8$':$#821&7-#9;<=>=? 1

6 The supply of biomass As Table 1 showed, the supply of biomass for the gross inland consumption of energy has been continually growing from 1990 to More than 95% of this biomass originates as primary biomass supplied from within Europe. In 2010 the net imports of biomass were 5.2 Mtoe (source AEBIOM 2012). In 2010 the 118 Mtoe of primary biomass delivered 94,1Mtoe of final energy; (the difference is due mainly to the efficiency losses in the generation of electricity). As no further increase of the electricity generation from 2020 to 2030 is assumed, the relation between primary and final energy will improve in Table 7 shows that in the period from 2010 to 2030 the supply of primary biomass has to grow from 118 to 250 Mtoe. Table 7: EU 27, biomass, from primary to final energy Mtoe Biomass, gross inland consumption Biomass, final energy 77,8 94,1 175,5 226,5 Share of final energy to primary energy % Source: WBA calculation A doubling of the supply of biomass is possible if all sources of biomass wood, agriculture and waste streams are further developed. For more details see ANNEX Conclusion The World Bioenergy Association views Europe as a continent with a well-developed bioenergy industry and a big potential for further growth of this. In combination with imports of biomass, especially from North and South America in the form of pellets, biofuels, pyrolysis oil, torrified biomass and other forms bioenergy could cover 20% of the final energy demand of Europe in 2030, 85% of the biomass coming from Europe and 15% from imports. In combination with the rapid deployment of wind, solar PV and solar heating, RES could then cover 45% of Europe s final energy demand by2030. Such a transformation of the energy system would create huge advantages for Europe and the world as a whole. Europe would improve its energy security by becoming independent of gas imports from Russia and would dramatically increase the share of indigenous energy supply. This would save the Europeans billions of Euros for energy imports and thus should increase the standard of living and employment on the continent. In addition Europe could reduce its CO2 emissions by 50% as compared to 1990 and thus demonstrate globally that economic wellbeing and a responsible climate policy can be combined. An accelerated promotion of biomass and all other RES is the only meaningful strategy for improved energy security, successful climate mitigation policy and a peaceful world. H

7 ANNEX Socio, economic and environmental impacts Following are citations of the study RE-thinking 2050: Avoided fuel costs: According to the study re-thinking 2050 by 2020 the EU can reduce its annual fossil fuel demand by over 290 Mtoe, reaching almost 500 Mtoe by Hence renewable energy use will avoid fossil fuel costs of about 158 billion Euros in 2020 and 325 billion Euro in Social Benefits effect on employment: By the end of 2009, the renewable energy industry employed over 550,000 people in the European Union. Following the pathway described above, the renewable energy sector will employ a total of more than 2,7 million people in 2020 and about 4,4 million people in The rate of total employment could be increased by several per cents. Environmental Benefits Renewable energy deployment by 2020 will reduce annual energy related CO2 emissions by about 1,200 Mt against 1990 emissions, and further by about 2,000 Mt by This equals a CO2 reduction against 1990 levels of about 50% by Enabling policy measures The WBA is convinced that: following the described concept Europe by 2030 could reduce the dependence on imported fossil fuels from 60% to below 30% and thus improve energy security, reach a 50% reduction in CO2 emissions and a share of 45% from renewables, thus demonstrating to other countries and continents how to realize a successful strategy in transforming the energy system. What is needed to realize this concept? The assurance and conviction of decision makers that this is necessary and possible Phasing out all subsidies for Fossil and Nuclear Energy Phasing out new investments in Fossil and Nuclear Energy Introducing an EU wide carbon tax Providing financial support from public authorities (European, national regional) to construct new district heating systems and install renewable heating systems (biomass, solar thermal) in private houses outside the reach of district heating grids. Keep Feed in Tariffs for electricity from wind, solar pv, hydro and biomass/biogas (produced in cogeneration units and CHP plants) Keep blending rules for biofuels Create incentives to increase the supply of biomass: to use fallow land and unneeded agricultural land to produce biomass, to collect by-products of agriculture, to better use organic waste and bio-wastes, to better manage the European forests. Develop new storage technologies and distribution infrastructure for electricity. I

8 On global climate responsibility: China and the EU27 The structure of the energy supply in China and Europe is quite different. Table 8: Energy supply, comparison China and EU27, Mtoe, 2010 China Europe TPED Coal Gas Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2012, Paris. China has population of 1,3 billion people and expects 1,5 billion people by More than 50% of the population are still living in rural areas under poor conditions mainly relying on traditional biomass as energy source. As more and more people move to the cities the energy consumption will continue to grow. At present coal provides 70% of the energy demand in China; China burns almost 6 times as much coal as Europe. In view of the threat of global warming China will also have to reduce its CO2 emissions. This will require that China pushes still more for renewables but also replaces coal by gas. In the future China could absorb all the gas that Russia can export to replace its use of coal and thus reduce CO2 emissions. Europe should reduce its consumption of fossil fuels, and also of gas, and support the substitution of coal by gas in China rather than relying on large gas imports from Russia any more. This could be part of a global concept of climate responsibility. The EREC concept and the NREAP The proposed concept is more ambitious than the National Renewable Action Plans presented by the member states for the year 2020 as is shown in table 8. Table 9: The EREC concept and the NREAPs EREC 2020 NREAP 2030 EREC Electricity 8,8 21, ,5 Heat 61,0 120, ,0 Biofuels 8,0 34, ,0 TOTAL 77,8 175, ,5 The main difference concerns the heating sector. The heat market was permanently overlooked by the European energy policy; this is also reflected in the NREAP. In the future the transformation of the heating sector has to be a priority to decrease fast enough the dependence on fossil fuel imports and CO2 emissions. We should not forget: Almost 50% of Europe s final energy demand is for heat The supply of biomass The European Authorities are invited to develop a more positive attitude towards biomass to energy: without a strong growth of bio-energy the problems of energy security and climate mitigation cannot be solved in Europe. J

9 Theoretical models based on narrow-minded assumptions that deny the realities don t depict the real world should not be used to slow down the deployment of sustainably produced biomass-toenergy (for example some ILUC discussions) Also the ill-informed obstruction of the use of biomass is no help to solve the energy problem. It is based on the wrong assumption that the use of biomass should be restricted and that the society can go on and on with the use of fossil energy Biomass should provide 250 Mtoe by 2030 as primary energy as compared to 118 Mtoe in The production of biomass is connected with the use of land. Land will become a more and more valuable resource, as it is the basis for all renewable matter, be it food, feed, fibre, construction material or biomass for energy. In a future with less and less fossil fuel resources, land as the production base for renewable resources will play a decisive role as it did in the past, when 20 30% of the land was used to produce feed for animals for farm work and transport purposes. Table 10: European land endowment Category Area in million ha European Union 27: total land area 423,7 Forest area 159,3 Utilised agric. Land (UAL) 187,9 Arable land 108,3 Permanent crops 11,9 Permanent grassland 67,6 Fallow land 3,8 Corn (maize) ca 8,0 Wheat 25 Source: FAO stat The land use is changing. The improved productivity per unit of area due to higher yields sets land free: so of about 10 million ha of land area in one decade. Part of this land is now in use for ecologically focused areas without much production. In addition almost 4 million ha of land in Europe is not used at all (fallow land). And also part of the permanent grassland is not required for animal fodder production any more. Also a significant part of the wood production of forests is not used: The annual increment of Europe s forests is 768 million m, the annual removal is in the order of 484 million m so 284 m less than the production Parts of the straw and stalk after the harvest of cereals and oilseeds is not used but burned on the fields. Corncobs are not utilised at all. To increase the supply of biomass for energy parts of this currently unutilised potential has to be mobilized. The following list demonstrates how this additional 138 Mtoe from biomass could be provided by 2030:.

10 Forests: 130 million m additional wood from the forests as wood by-products, bark, residues and round wood of low quality would deliver 22 Mtoe energy. By-products of agriculture: Straw from 10 million ha could provide about 10 Mtoe energy Corncobs from 6 million ha could deliver 3 Mtoe Manure, assumed use 35%: 6 Mtoe Other biomass and waste: Demolition wood, landscape cleaning: 2 Mtoe Waste (MSW, from food industry, sewage): 6 8 Mtoe Cellulosic energy crops: 10 million ha short rotation forest: could deliver 40 Mtoe Imports 40 million ton pellets delivers 16 Mtoe 10 Million torrified wood: 6 Mtoe Transportation fuels, pyrolysis oil and others: 12 Mtoe Table 11: Scenario for the supply of biomass in 2030, Mtoe EU Addit Wood Biogas Biofuels By-products agriculture: straw, corncobs, landscape cleaning Cellulosic energy crops: miscanthus, short rotation coppices Others 2 5 European biomass for energy imports Primary energy from biomass including imports Literature: RE-thinking 2050: A 100% Renewable Energy Vision for the European Union. EREC European Renewable Energy Council. Brussels European Bioenergy Outlook AEBIOM: Brussel A Biogas Road Map for Europe. AEBIOM: 2009 IEA. World #Energy Outlook Paris ">