Energy Technology Perspectives 2012

Transcription

1 Energy Technology Perspectives 2012 Pathways to a Clean Energy System Please note that this PDF is subject to specific restrictions that limit its use and distribution. The terms and conditions are available online at

2 Table of Contents 3 Table of Contents Introduction 7 Foreword 7 Executive Summary 8 Acknowledgements 15 Part 1 Vision, Status and Tools for the Transition 26 Chapter 1 The Global Outlook 29 Choosing the future: scenarios in ETP The ETP C Scenario 35 The ETP C Scenario 36 The ETP C Scenario 36 Technologies needed to achieve the 2DS 39 Policies needed to achieve the 2DS 44 Linking energy security and low-carbon energy 51 Recommended actions for the near term 56 Chapter 2 Tracking Clean Energy Progress 59 Power generation 64 Industry 80 Buildings 84 Transport 90 Carbon capture and storage 102 Technology overview notes 106 Chapter 3 Policies to Promote Technology Innovation 109 Policy framework for low-carbon innovation 115 Technological innovation and public policy 118 When do technology support policies make sense? 119 Energy technology policies 125 Chapter 4 Financing the Clean Energy Revolution 135 Investment costs of an energy technology revolution 136 Benefits of a low-carbon energy sector 146 Current trends in low-carbon energy investments 148 Status of climate finance 151 Where will the money come from? 153 Domestic policy frameworks for investing in clean energy 159 Recommended actions for the near term 165

3 4 Table of Contents Part 2 Energy Systems 166 Overview Energy Systems Thinking 168 Chapter 5 Heating and Cooling 175 An overview of global heating and cooling use 177 Future demand for heating and cooling 180 Decarbonising heating and cooling 186 Integrated energy networks 197 Recommended actions for the near term 198 Chapter 6 Flexible Electricity Systems 201 Electricity system indicators 203 Developing flexible resources in the power system 208 The role of regulation in electricity system evolution 228 Recommended actions for the near term 229 Chapter 7 Hydrogen 233 Hydrogen today 235 Hydrogen in the energy system context 236 Hydrogen technologies and conversion pathways 238 Hydrogen trajectory to 2050 and beyond 256 Recommended actions for the near term 265 Part 3 Fossil Fuels and CCS 268 Overview The Future of Fossil Fuels 270 Chapter 8 Coal Technologies 275 Role of coal in the energy mix 276 Coal-fired power generation 279 Potential for reducing emissions and improving air quality 283 Technologies for improving efficiency and reducing emissions 284 Emerging technologies 290 Recommended actions for the near term 294 Chapter 9 Natural Gas Technologies 297 Role of gas in energy 298 Main drivers of the changing gas demand 301 Unconventional gas 302 Role of gas in future scenarios 311 Gas for power generation 313 Gas use in the industry and buildings sectors 328 Gas use in the transport sector 333 Role of gas in a low-carbon economy 333 Recommended actions for the near term 334 Chapter 10 Carbon Capture and Storage Technologies 337 The need for carbon capture and storage technology and potential applications 338 Carbon capture and storage applied to electricity generation 341 Carbon capture and storage in industrial applications 347 Transport and storage of CO Recommended actions for the near term 354

4 Table of Contents 5 Part 4 Scenarios and Technology Roadmaps 358 Chapter 11 Electricity Generation and Fuel Transformation 361 Recent trends in electricity generation and fuel transformation 364 Scenario results for electricity generation 370 Scenario results for fuel transformation 378 Variants of the 2DS for the power sector 382 Recommended actions for the near term 385 Chapter 12 Industry 389 Industrial energy use and CO 2 emissions 390 Industry scenarios 392 Recommended actions for the near term 421 Chapter13 Transport 423 The turbulent decade: 2000 to Looking ahead at transport technologies 435 Scenarios: long-term vision for short-term action 443 Focus on transport infrastructure 446 Transport cost assessment: adding up vehicles, fuels and infrastructure 453 Recommended actions for the near term 454 Chapter 14 Buildings 457 Energy use and CO 2 emissions 459 Scenario results for the buildings sector 465 Recommended actions for the near term 476 Chapter 15 Technology Roadmaps 479 Bioenergy 484 CCS in power generation 486 Concentrating solar power 488 Geothermal 490 Nuclear power 492 Solar PV 494 Smart grid 496 Wind 498 Energy efficient buildings: heating and cooling equipment 500 CCS in industrial applications 502 Cement sector 504 Biofuels 506 EV/PHEV 508 Fuel economy 510 Chapter : Can We Reach Zero Emissions? 513 Underlying assumptions in the 2DS for CO 2 results for Energy use to Recommended actions for the near term 533 Chapter 17 Regional Spotlights Association of Southeast Asian Nations Brazil China European Union 568

5 6 Table of Contents 5. India Mexico Russia South Africa United States 625 Annexes 634 Annex A Analytical Approach 634 Annex B Abbreviations and Acronyms 640 Annex C Definitions, Regional and Country Groupings and Units 647 Annex D References 657 List of Figures, Tables and Boxes 674

6 674 Annexes List of Figures, Tables and Boxes List of Figures Part 1 Vision, Status and Tools for the Transition 26 Chapter 1 The Global Outlook 29 Figure 1.1 Total primary energy supply and CO 2 emissions 31 Figure 1.2 Global greenhouse gas emissions by sector 32 Figure 1.3 ETP scenario CO 2 emissions pathways 33 Figure 1.4 Total primary energy supply 34 Figure 1.5 Global CO 2 emissions by sector and scenario 35 Figure 1.6 Total energy supply and energy intensity in the 2DS 37 Figure 1.7 GDP, population and global demand for steel and cement in the 2DS 37 Figure 1.8 Investments and savings in the 2DS 38 Figure 1.9 Contributions to emissions reductions in the 2DS 39 Figure 1.10 Fuel mix in electricity generation, by scenario 41 Figure 1.11 CO 2 intensity in electricity generation in the 2DS 42 Figure 1.12 Marginal abatement cost curve in electricity generation, Figure 1.13 Passenger LDV marginal abatement cost curves by year, 2DS 49 Figure 1.14 Passenger LDV marginal abatement cost curves in the 2DS in 2050 under different assumptions on learning 50 Chapter 2 Tracking Clean Energy Progress 59 Figure 2.1 Key sector contributions to world CO 2 emissions reductions 62 Figure 2.2 Changes in sources of electricity supply, Figure 2.3 Efficiency of coal-fired power plants 66 Figure 2.4 Investment cost of fossil and nuclear power 66 Figure 2.5 Annual capacity investment and coal price 67 Figure 2.6 Coal deployment by technology ( ) and ETP 2DS 67 Figure 2.7 Capacity additions in major regions by technology ( ) 67 Figure 2.8 Share of nuclear in government energy RD&D spending, Figure 2.9 Nuclear policy post-fukushima 70 Figure 2.10 Annual nuclear capacity investment 71 Figure 2.11 Installed nuclear capacity and 2DS objectives 71 Figure 2.12 Reactors under construction, end Figure 2.13 Public opinion of nuclear energy 73 Figure 2.14 Technology investment cost, 2011 and 2DS objectives 76 Figure 2.15 Public RD&D spending in Figure 2.16 Annual capacity investment 77 Figure 2.17 Renewable power generation and 2DS 77 Figure 2.18 Market concentration and required diffusion 77 Figure 2.19 Time needed to develop small-scale rooftop photovoltaic projects in select European Union countries 79 Figure 2.20 Energy use by industry sector and region in 2000 and Figure 2.21 Progress in industrial energy intensity 81 Figure 2.22 Active solar thermal system deployment and 2DS 2020 objectives 87 Figure 2.23 Energy consumption in buildings by end-use and share of increase in energy consumption, Figure 2.24 Energy use and volume for combined refrigerator and freezer units 88 Figure 2.25 Light-duty vehicle fuel economy and new vehicle registrations, 2005 and Figure 2.26 Vehicle fuel economy, enacted and proposed standards 93

7 Annexes List of Figures, Tables and Boxes 675 Figure 2.27 United States passenger vehicle market shares and actual price of gasoline, 2004 to Figure 2.28 Estimated battery cost reductions and Figure 2.29 BEV driving range and average LDV travel per day 96 Figure 2.30 Government and manufacturer EV targets 97 Figure 2.31 World EV sales 97 Figure 2.32 EV stock 97 Figure 2.33 Biofuel production cost, 2010 and 2DS objectives 100 Figure 2.34 Litre of fuel equivalent per hectare 100 Figure 2.35 Biofuel production capacity investment 101 Figure 2.36 Biofuel blending mandates and targets in key regions 101 Figure 2.37 World biofuel production, and 2DS objectives 101 Figure 2.38 Government spending on CCS R&D in IEA countries 104 Figure 2.39 CCS cost increase and efficiency penalty 104 Figure 2.40 CCS project funding status, end Figure 2.41 Large-scale integrated CCS project status, Chapter 3 Policies to Promote Technology Innovation 109 Figure 3.1 OECD countries spending on energy RD&D as a share of total R&D budgets 113 Figure 3.2 Clean energy patents filed by inventor s country of residence 115 Figure 3.3 An energy innovation policy framework based on good practices 116 Figure 3.4 Examples of technology-push and market-pull policy instruments 119 Figure 3.5 The core policy mix: carbon price, energy efficiency and technology policies 120 Figure 3.6 Emission trading system combined with supplementary policies 122 Figure 3.7 Direct cost reductions and carbon price reductions from early technology support 124 Figure 3.8 Effect of the time needed to scale up new technology to meet climate target 125 Chapter 4 Financing the Clean Energy Revolution 135 Figure 4.1 Additional investment needs in the 2DS compared to 6DS 138 Figure 4.2 Cumulative additional investments in the 2DS compared to 6DS, 2010 to Figure 4.3 Additional investment needs in power generation in the 2DS compared to 6DS 141 Figure 4.4 Annual investment needs in power generation by technology sector in the 2DS, (USD billion) 142 Figure 4.5 Additional investments needs for low-carbon transport in the 2DS 143 Figure 4.6 Additional per capita investment needs in the transport sector in the 2DS, 2010 to Figure 4.7 Average annual investment by end-use in the 6DS and the 2DS 145 Figure 4.8 Additional per capita investment needs in the buildings sector in the 2DS compared to 6DS 145 Figure 4.9 Total investments in industry in the 6DS and the 2DS, 2010 to Figure 4.10 Additional investment and fuel savings in the 2DS compared to 6DS, 2010 to Figure 4.11 Global investments in low-carbon energy technologies 148 Figure 4.12 Regional investments in low-carbon technologies 149 Figure 4.13 Additional annual investment needs by income category to achieve the 2DS, and Figure 4.14 Global assets under management, Figure 4.15 Asset allocation and expected returns from institutional investors 155 Figure 4.16 Private equity fundraising and share of clean technology 157 Part 2 Energy Systems 166 Overview Energy Systems Thinking 168 Figure ES.1 Global energy flows in Figure ES.2 Global energy flows in the 2DS in Figure ES.3 The integrated and intelligent energy network of the future 171 Chapter 5 Heating and Cooling 175 Figure 5.1 Total final energy consumption by region as electricity, heat, transport and non-energy uses, Figure 5.2 Heat generation by region for different fuel types,

8 676 Annexes List of Figures, Tables and Boxes Figure 5.3 Global heat consumption by region in various sectors, Figure 5.4 Heat loss in power generation by region, Figure 5.5 OECD and non-oecd energy demand by building stock vintage, Figure 5.6 Estimates of cooling energy demand in selected regions 183 Figure 5.7 Industrial energy demand by temperature level in selected regions 185 Figure 5.8 Fuel mix and CO 2 intensity of district energy networks in the 2DS 187 Figure 5.9 Integration of co-generation and district heating in electricity markets in Denmark 188 Figure 5.10 Heat pump technology 190 Figure 5.11 Representative efficiencies of air- and ground-source heat pump installations in selected countries 191 Figure 5.12 Electricity load profile of a set of houses employing a mix of heat pumps and co-generation to meet space heating needs 192 Figure 5.13 Electricity load curve in the high-penetration base and smart case studies 193 Figure 5.14 Heat demand in industries using variable heat temperatures in selected regions, 2010 (top) and 2050 (bottom) 195 Figure 5.15 The energy system as an intelligent energy network 198 Chapter 6 Flexible Electricity Systems 201 Figure 6.1 Annual electricity generation 203 Figure 6.2 Generation capacity by technology 204 Figure 6.3 Overview of flexibility needs and resources 205 Figure 6.4 Flexibility and balancing timeframes 207 Figure 6.5 Balancing requirements in key regions 208 Figure 6.6 Monthly capacity factors for wind and photovoltaic in Germany, Figure 6.7 Cumulative investments in transmission and distribution to 2050 by cost and percentage 214 Figure 6.8 Cumulative costs and benefits of smart grids versus conventional T&D systems in the 2DS to Figure 6.9 Sector- and technology-specific smart-grids costs and benefits in the 2DS to Figure 6.10 Fraction of appliance load that can be used for flexibility in residential sector 219 Figure 6.11 Sectoral flexibility potential in OECD Americas by percentage of requirement and GW 220 Figure 6.12 Regional demand-side flexibility resource in the 2DS 221 Figure 6.13 Demand-side flexibility resource excluding seasonal loads in the 2DS 222 Figure 6.14 Storage technologies by rated capacity and discharge time 223 Figure 6.15 Lifecycle costs of storage technologies per unit installed capacity and energy 225 Figure 6.16 Technology options for non-energy electricity system applications 228 Chapter 7 Hydrogen 233 Figure 7.1 Different hydrogen generation and transportation layouts 238 Figure 7.2 Levellised costs of electricity storage 245 Figure 7.3 Comparison of volumetric and mass storage requirements by fuel 246 Figure 7.4 Fuel-cell cost reduction as a function of annual production rate 248 Figure 7.5 Global passenger LDV sales by class segment Figure 7.6 Long-term vehicle and fuel costs vs. vehicle lifetime CO 2 emissions 251 Figure 7.7 Energy losses for hydrogen versus direct electricity in the transport sector 254 Figure 7.8 Energy losses for hydrogen versus electrified heat and power in the buildings sector 254 Figure 7.9 Levellised costs of wind energy and hydrogen storage assuming long-term investment costs for hydrogen storage equipment 255 Figure 7.10 Industrial energy consumption 258 Figure 7.11 Industrial CO 2 emissions 258 Figure 7.12 Buildings energy consumption 259 Figure 7.13 Buildings CO 2 emissions 260 Figure 7.14 Passenger LDV stock by technology 260 Figure 7.15 Fuel demand by fuel type 261 Figure 7.16 Road transport CO 2 emissions by Figure 7.17 Cumulative global costs for road vehicles and fuels 262 Figure 7.18 Global cumulative investment in hydrogen generation, transport and distribution infrastructure 264 Figure 7.19 Cost of hydrogen at the station 265

9 Annexes List of Figures, Tables and Boxes 677 Part 3 Fossil Fuels and CCS 268 Overview The future of Fossil Fuels 275 Figure F.1 Growth in total primary energy demand 270 Figure F.2 Electricity generation by resource in selected countries and regions in Figure F.3 Non-fossil electricity generation 272 Chapter 8 Coal Technologies 275 Figure 8.1 Two very different futures for coal demand 276 Figure 8.2 The 4DS and 2DS visions for electricity generation from coal 277 Figure 8.3 CO 2 emissions for the 4DS and the 2DS in coal-fired power generation 278 Figure 8.4 CO 2 emissions intensity from coal-fired power generation 278 Figure 8.5 Regional CO₂ emissions intensity from coal-fired power generation 279 Figure 8.6 Capacity of coal-fired plants in major coal-using countries 280 Figure 8.7 CO 2 emissions from coal-fired power generation 281 Figure 8.8 Trend of installed capacity in coal-fired power generation 281 Figure 8.9 Projected capacity of coal-fired power generation plants 282 Figure 8.10 Technology pathways for cleaner coal-fired power generation 283 Figure 8.11 State-of-the-art steam conditions and future perspectives in PC plants 285 Figure 8.12 Integrated gasification combined cycle power generation 286 Figure 8.13 Current capability of flue gas treatment system for coal-fired power plants 288 Figure 8.14 NO X, SO 2 and PM emissions from coal-fired power plants 289 Figure 8.15 High-temperature materials for a double-reheat advanced ultra-supercritical design 291 Figure 8.16 Integrated gasification fuel cell (IGFC) cycle 292 Figure 8.17 Proven recoverable coal reserves 293 Figure 8.18 Advanced lignite pre-drying in pulverised coal combustion 293 Chapter 9 Natural Gas Technologies 297 Figure 9.1 Global final natural gas consumption in different sectors 300 Figure 9.2 Energy flows in the global natural gas system, Figure 9.3 Direct and indirect use of natural gas across end-use sectors, Figure 9.4 Unconventional gas supply in the 4DS 303 Figure 9.5 Unconventional gas supply in the 2DS 304 Figure 9.6 Horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing 306 Figure 9.7 Technology needs and solutions 311 Figure 9.8 Role of natural gas in total primary energy production 312 Figure 9.9 Role of natural gas in power and end-use sectors 312 Figure 9.10 Incremental growth in OECD electricity generation, 2000 to Figure 9.11 Future natural gas-fired power generation in different regions 314 Figure 9.12 Efficiency ranges for OCGTs and CCGTs 316 Figure 9.13 Efficiency projections for combined cycle gas turbines 317 Figure 9.14 Capacity factors of gas-fired power plant fleets in OECD and non-oecd countries 318 Figure 9.15 Average CO 2 emissions from the power sector in different countries in the 2DS 320 Figure 9.16 Change in sources of power generation from the 4DS to the 2DS 321 Figure 9.17 CO 2 emissions reduction by gas technologies in the 2DS, relative to the 4DS 321 Figure 9.18 System flow of CCGT with solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) 323 Figure 9.19 Integrated solar combined cycle system flow 323 Figure 9.20 Advanced humid-air turbine system flow 324 Figure 9.21 Schematic diagram of post-combustion capture 325 Figure 9.22 Biogas energy potential from one hectare of land 326 Figure 9.23 Electricity generation from gas 327 Figure 9.24 Final natural gas consumption in the industry sector 328 Figure 9.25 Final natural gas consumption in the buildings sector 330 Chapter 10 Carbon Capture and Storage Technologies 337 Figure 10.1 Cumulative mass of CO 2 captured globally in the 2DS and the corresponding fraction of CO 2 captured by region 340

10 678 Annexes List of Figures, Tables and Boxes Figure 10.2 Capture rates from power generation and industrial applications of CCS by regions in the 2DS 341 Figure 10.3 Global power generation capacity by fuel type in the 2DS and the corresponding 2050 fraction of total capacity 342 Figure 10.4 Electric power generation capacity equipped with CO 2 capture and the corresponding fraction of capacity by region 343 Figure 10.5 The three principal CO 2 capture routes in electric power generation 344 Figure 10.6 Annual capture rate from industrial application of CCS and the corresponding fraction of CO 2 captured annually by region 348 Figure 10.7 Capture rates by region modelled for different industrial applications. 348 Figure 10.8 Typical ranges of costs of emissions reductions from industrial applications of CCS 350 Figure 10.9 The cumulative amount of CO 2 captured from 2015 to 2030 and 2050 by region in the 2DS 351 Figure Incentive mechanisms for CCS must be tailored to the stage of technology deployment 355 Part 4 Scenarios and Technology Roadmaps 358 Chapter 11 Electricity Generation and Fuel Transformation 361 Figure 11.1 Sankey diagram of energy flows in the power sector, Figure 11.2 Global electricity generation by region 364 Figure 11.3 Global electricity generation by fuel 365 Figure 11.4 CO 2 intensity of electricity generation in selected countries 366 Figure 11.5 Age of existing power generation capacity today in the United States, the European Union, India and China 367 Figure 11.6 Final liquid fuel supply (left) and biofuel production (right) 367 Figure 11.7 Regional biofuel production capacities, Figure 11.8 Final electricity demand by sector 370 Figure 11.9 Power generation mix in the 4DS and the 2DS 371 Figure Levellised electricity generation costs for selected technologies in the 2DS in the United States 373 Figure Key technologies to reduce CO 2 emissions in the power sector in the 2DS, relative to the 4DS 375 Figure Average annual capacity additions in the 2DS 376 Figure Liquid fuel demand by end-use sector 378 Figure Liquid fuel supply 379 Figure Production costs of selected alternative fuels for different CO 2 price levels 380 Figure Fuel production (including hydrogen and biomethane) from biomass by technology in the 2DS 381 Figure CO 2 captured in the fuel transformation sector in 2DS 381 Figure Hydrogen production by fuel in the 2DS 382 Chapter 12 Industry 389 Figure 12.1 Energy consumption flow in the industry sector, Figure 12.2 Global industrial energy consumption by region 391 Figure 12.3 Evolution of aggregate industrial energy intensity by region 392 Figure 12.4 Materials production in 2010 and Figure 12.5 Final energy consumption in industry 395 Figure 12.6 Direct CO 2 emissions reduction by industry between the 4DS and 2DS 396 Figure 12.7 Current energy savings potential for iron and steel, based on best available technologies 397 Figure 12.8 Iron and steel energy intensity and direct CO 2 emission intensity 398 Figure 12.9 Technologies for reducing iron and steel direct CO 2 emissions between the 4DS and 2DS 399 Figure Emissions reduction in the iron and steel sector by region 400 Figure Current energy savings potential for cement, based on best available technologies 403 Figure Cement energy intensity and direct CO 2 emission intensity 404 Figure Technologies for reducing cement direct CO 2 emissions between the 4DS and 2DS 405 Figure Emissions reduction in the cement sector by region 406 Figure Current energy savings potential for chemicals and petrochemicals, based on best practice technologies 408

11 Annexes List of Figures, Tables and Boxes 679 Figure Technologies for reducing chemicals and petrochemicals direct CO 2 emissions between the 4DS and 2DS 409 Figure Emissions reduction in the chemical and petrochemical sector by region 410 Figure Current energy savings potential for pulp and paper, based on best available technologies 413 Figure Technologies for reducing pulp and paper direct CO 2 emissions between the 4DS and 2DS 414 Figure Emissions reduction in the pulp and paper sector by region 415 Figure Current energy savings potential for aluminium, based on best available technologies 417 Figure Intensities of primary aluminium and metallurgical alumina production 418 Figure Technologies for reducing aluminium direct CO 2 emissions between the 4DS and 2DS 419 Figure Emissions reduction in the aluminium sector by region 420 Chapter 13 Transport 423 Figure 13.1 World transport energy use by mode 425 Figure 13.2 Final energy distribution in the transport sector, Figure 13.3 Motorised passenger travel mode share, Figure 13.4 Passenger LDV sales worldwide 428 Figure 13.5 China 2-wheeler sales 428 Figure 13.6 Passenger LDV sales and stock shares by technology, Figure 13.7 Stock share of diesel passenger LDVs 430 Figure 13.8 Stock share of non-gasoline and non-diesel technology for passenger LDVs, Figure 13.9 Hybrid passenger LDV sales by region 431 Figure Road vehicle stock average fuel economy 433 Figure Passenger LDVs travel for selected OECD countries, indexed to Figure Historical road-freight trends 434 Figure Cumulative sales of passenger LDVs by technology type for the next two decades, in the 2DS 435 Figure CO 2 efficiency versus vehicle range for a typical mid-size passenger LDV in 2DS, 2010 to Figure Fuel costs in 2050 for selected fuel pathways, per unit of energy and distance travelled 437 Figure Passenger LDV cost evolution by technology type 438 Figure Historical timeline of bus rapid transit corridors and systems 440 Figure Global portfolio of technologies for passenger LDVs 443 Figure Passenger activity evolution by scenario 444 Figure Energy demand in the transport sector by mode 444 Figure Well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions mitigation potential from the transport sector 446 Figure Historical road and track kilometres extent 447 Figure Average national road-occupancy levels relative to total vehicle stock 449 Figure Infrastructure kilometre projections 452 Figure Cumulative transport costs, 2010 to Chapter 14 Buildings 457 Figure 14.1 Energy consumption flow in the buildings sector, Figure 14.2 World buildings energy consumption by energy source 460 Figure 14.3 Total residential sub-sector energy consumption by region 461 Figure 14.4 Residential energy consumption by energy source 461 Figure 14.5 Energy and direct CO 2 emissions intensity in the residential sub-sector in Figure 14.6 Total services sub-sector energy consumption by region 463 Figure 14.7 Services energy consumption by energy source 464 Figure 14.8 Energy intensity and direct CO 2 emissions in the services sub-sector in Figure 14.9 Buildings-sector energy consumption 469 Figure Buildings-sector energy savings between the 4DS and 2DS 469 Figure Buildings-sector CO 2 emissions and reductions 470 Figure Contribution of CO 2 emissions reduction options between the 4DS and 2DS 470 Figure Residential sub-sector energy consumption and intensity 472 Figure Residential sub-sector CO 2 emissions and reductions 473 Figure Services sub-sector energy consumption and intensity 474 Figure Services sub-sector CO 2 emissions and reductions 475 Figure Incremental investment needs in the buildings sector in the 2DS,

12 680 Annexes List of Figures, Tables and Boxes Chapter 15 Technology Roadmaps 479 In this chapter each of the 14 technologies have corresponding figures Chapter : Can We Reach Zero Emissions? 513 Figure 16.1 Long-term energy-related CO 2 emissions derived from ETP scenarios and compared with RCPs 515 Figure 16.2 CO 2 emissions in the extended and alternative 2DS cases 518 Figure 16.3 Total primary energy use in the extended and alternative 2DS cases 519 Figure 16.4 Global electricity generation in the extended and alternative 2DS cases 520 Figure 16.5 Global materials production to Figure 16.6 Industrial energy consumption in the extended and alternative 2DS cases 524 Figure 16.7 CO 2 emissions in industry in the extended and alternative 2DS cases 525 Figure 16.8 World transport energy use in the extended and alternative 2DS cases 527 Figure 16.9 Buildings energy consumption by energy source in extended 2DS 531 Figure Buildings direct CO 2 emissions by sub-sector and energy source in extended 2DS 532 Chapter 17 Regional Spotlights ASEAN Figure Sectoral contributions to achieve the 2DS compared to the 4DS 537 Figure ASEAN electricity generation in the 4DS and 2DS 540 Figure Annual CO 2 reductions in the power sector to reach the 2DS (relative to the 4DS) 541 Figure Industrial energy consumption by energy source in ASEAN 542 Figure Industrial CO 2 emission reductions in ASEAN in the low-demand case 543 Figure Passenger mode share in the ASEAN region 543 Figure Transport energy use in 2050 by mode, energy type and scenario 544 Figure Passenger light-duty vehicle sales by technology type and scenario 544 Figure Buildings energy consumption by end-use in ASEAN 545 Figure Buildings CO 2 emissions reductions in ASEAN Brazil Figure Sectoral contributions to achieve the 2DS compared to the 4DS 548 Figure Electricity generation in the 4DS and 2DS 552 Figure Annual CO 2 reductions in the power sector to reach the 2DS (relative to the 4DS) 552 Figure Industrial energy consumption by energy source in Brazil 554 Figure Industrial CO 2 emissions reductions in Brazil in the low-demand case 554 Figure Passenger mode share in Brazil 555 Figure Transport energy use in 2050 by mode, energy type and scenario 555 Figure Passenger light-duty vehicle sales by technology type and scenario 556 Figure Buildings energy consumption by end-use in Brazil 557 Figure Buildings direct and indirect CO 2 emissions and reduction in Brazil China Figure Sectoral contributions to achieve the 2DS compared with the 4DS 559 Figure Electricity generation in the 4DS and 2DS 562 Figure Annual CO 2 reductions in the power sector to reach the 2DS (relative to 4DS) 562 Figure Industrial energy consumption by energy source in China 564 Figure Industrial CO 2 emissions reductions in China in the low-demand case 564 Figure Passenger mode share in China 565 Figure Transport energy use in 2050 by mode, energy type and scenario 565 Figure Passenger light-duty vehicle sales by technology type and scenario 566 Figure Buildings energy consumption by end use in China 567 Figure Buildings CO 2 emissions reductions in China European Union Figure Sectoral contributions to achieve the 2DS compared with the 4DS 570 Figure Electricity generation in the 4DS and 2DS 571 Figure Annual CO 2 reductions in the power sector to reach the 2DS (relative to the 4DS) 571 Figure Industrial energy consumption by energy source in the European Union 572 Figure Industrial CO 2 emissions reductions in the European Union in the low-demand case 573 Figure Passenger mode share in the European Union 573 Figure Transport energy use in 2050 by mode, energy type and scenario 574 Figure Passenger light-duty vehicle sales by technology type and scenario 574 Figure Buildings energy consumption by end use in the European Union 576 Figure Buildings CO 2 emissions reductions in the European Union 576

13 Annexes List of Figures, Tables and Boxes India Figure Sectoral contributions to achieve the 2DS from the 4DS 578 Figure Electricity generation in the 4DS and 2DS 582 Figure Annual CO 2 reductions in the power sector to reach the 2DS (relative to the 4DS) 582 Figure Industrial energy consumption by energy source in India 584 Figure Industrial CO 2 emissions reductions in India in the low-demand case 584 Figure Passenger mode share in India 585 Figure Transport energy use in 2050 by mode, energy type and scenario 586 Figure Passenger light-duty vehicle sales by technology type and scenario 586 Figure Energy consumption by energy source 587 Figure CO 2 emissions and reduction by scenarios Mexico Figure Sectoral contributions to achieve the 2DS from the 4DS 590 Figure Targets for non-fossil electricity generation by SENER (2026) and the ETP 2DS (2025) in TWh 593 Figure Electricity generation in the 4DS and the 2DS 595 Figure Annual CO₂ reductions in the power sector to reach the 2DS (relative to the 4DS) 596 Figure Industrial energy consumption by energy source in Mexico 597 Figure Industrial CO₂ emissions reductions in Mexico in the low-demand case 597 Figure Passenger mode share in Mexico 598 Figure Transport energy use in 2050 by mode, energy type and scenario 598 Figure PLDV sales by technology type and scenario 599 Figure Buildings energy consumption in Mexico by end use 600 Figure Buildings CO 2 emissions and reductions in Mexico by scenarios Russia Figure Sectoral contributions to achieve the 2DS from the 4DS 603 Figure Electricity generation in 2030 in the 4DS and 2DS 606 Figure Electricity generation in the 4DS and 2DS 607 Figure Annual CO 2 reductions in the power sector to reach the 2DS (relative to 4DS) 607 Figure Industrial energy consumption by energy source in Russia 609 Figure Industrial CO 2 emissions reductions in Russia in the low-demand case 609 Figure Passenger mode share in Russia 610 Figure Transport energy use in 2050 by mode, energy type and scenario 610 Figure PLDV sales by technology type and scenario 611 Figure Buildings energy consumption by end use in Russia 612 Figure Buildings CO 2 emissions reductions in Russia South Africa Figure Sectoral contributions to achieve the 2DS from the 4DS 613 Figure Electricity generation in the 4DS and 2DS 619 Figure Annual CO 2 reductions in the power sector to reach the 2DS (relative to 4DS) 619 Figure Industrial energy consumption by energy source in South Africa 620 Figure Industrial CO 2 emissions reductions in South Africa in the low-demand case 621 Figure Passenger mode share in South Africa 621 Figure Transport energy use by mode, energy type and scenario 622 Figure Passenger light-duty vehicle sales by technology type and scenario 622 Figure Buildings energy consumption by end use in South Africa 623 Figure Buildings CO 2 emissions reductions in South Africa United States Figure Sectoral contributions to achieve the 2DS from the 4DS 626 Figure Electricity generation in the 4DS and 2DS 627 Figure Annual CO 2 reductions in the power sector to reach the 2DS (relative to the 4DS) 627 Figure Industrial energy consumption by energy source in the United States 629 Figure Industrial CO 2 emissions reductions in the United States in the low-demand case 629 Figure Passenger mode share in the United States 630 Figure Transport energy use in 2050 by mode, energy type and scenario 630 Figure Passenger light-duty vehicle sales by technology type and scenario 631 Figure Buildings energy consumption by end use in the United States 632 Figure Buildings CO 2 emissions reductions in the United States 633 Annex A Analytical Approach 634 Figure A.1 The ETP model 635

14 682 Annexes List of Figures, Tables and Boxes List of Tables Part 1 Vision, Status and Tools for the Transition 26 Chapter 1 The Global Outlook 29 Table 1.1 Global marginal abatement costs and example marginal abatement options in the 2DS 47 Table 1.2 Dimensions of energy security addressed in MOSES 52 Table 1.3 HH-Index for measurement of diversification of energy portfolio 53 Chapter 2 Tracking Clean Energy Progress 59 Table 2.1 Factors that influence development and deployment progress of clean energy technology 61 Table 2.2 Summary of clean energy technology progress towards the 2DS 63 Table 2.3 Key policies that influence coal plant efficiency in select countries 68 Table 2.4 Nuclear policies, post-fukushima 72 Table 2.5 Share of technology contribution to industry CO 2 emissions reductions potential by Table 2.6 Policy actions to enhance industrial energy efficiency 84 Table 2.7 Opportunities for energy and CO 2 emissions savings in the buildings sector 85 Table 2.8 Policies to enhance equipment and appliance efficiency 90 Table 2.9 Progress of new vehicle fuel economy against the 2DS target 92 Table 2.10 Technical and consumer policies in place, Table 2.11 Policies and frameworks to support CCS deployment 103 Chapter 3 Policies to Promote Technology Innovation 109 Table 3.1 Indicators used to assess the rates of low-carbon technological innovation 112 Table 3.2 Categories of low-carbon technologies with the four impediments 127 Table 3.3 Focus of policies applying to different technology categories and their relative importance within the innovation chain 129 Chapter 4 Financing the Clean Energy Revolution 135 Table 4.1 Investment requirements by sector in the 6DS and 2DS 137 Table 4.2 Total additional investment needs of selected countries to 2050 in the 2DS 138 Table 4.3 Total investment needs in the 2DS 2010 to 2020 (USD billion) 139 Table 4.4 Total transport investments in the 6DS and the 2DS, 2010 to Table 4.5 Project finance for clean energy projects from development banks (USD million) 150 Table 4.6 Estimated volume of annual climate finance for mitigation in developing countries, Table 4.7 Risk analysis for investments in low-carbon energy technologies 156 Table 4.8 Sovereign wealth funds with over USD 100 billion in assets 158 Table 4.9 Barriers to greater financing from institutional investors 161 Table 4.10 Public finance mechanisms to leverage private-sector investments 163 Table 4.11 Green bond market (USD billion) 164 Part 2 Energy Systems 166 Chapter 6 Flexible Electricity Systems 201 Table 6.1 Comparison of timeframes for balancing 207 Table 6.2 Comparison of generation plant flexibility 209 Table 6.3 Ancillary services provided by distributed generation technologies 210 Table 6.4 Smart-grid technologies 215 Table 6.5 Load types suitable for balancing services 219

15 Annexes List of Figures, Tables and Boxes 683 Chapter 7 Hydrogen 233 Table 7.1 Spotlight on hydrogen vehicles and infrastructure numbers in today s leading countries 236 Table 7.2 Levellised costs of hydrogen-generation technologies, ranges depend on scale 240 Table 7.3 Comparison of key technical and economical parameters of fuel-cell, battery and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (Class C/D market segment) 250 Table 7.4 Overview of scenario assumptions 257 Part 3 Fossil Fuels and CCS 268 Chapter 8 Coal Technologies 275 Table 8.1 Technologies and policies to achieve the 2DS 282 Table 8.2 Performance of coal- and natural gas-fired technologies 290 Chapter 9 Natural Gas Technologies 297 Table 9.1 Natural gas contribution to total primary energy demand, Table 9.2 Recoverable resources of natural gas by type and region (tcm) 305 Table 9.3 Comparison of the flexibility of gas plants with other energy plants 315 Chapter 10 Carbon Capture and Storage Technologies 337 Table 10.1 Routes to CO 2 capture in electric power generation (by fuel) and industrial applications (by sector) 339 Table 10.2 The average cost and performance impact of adding CO 2 capture in OECD countries 345 Part 4 Scenarios and Technology Roadmaps 358 Chapter 11 Electricity Generation and Fuel Transformation 361 Table 11.1 Technical and economic assumptions for selected power technologies in the United States 374 Table 11.2 Global electricity production by energy source and by scenario 384 Chapter 12 Industry 389 Table 12.1 Iron and steel production by scenarios 398 Table 12.2 Main technology options for the iron and steel sector for the 2DS 401 Table 12.3 Investment needs in the iron and steel sector to 2050 (in USD trillion) 402 Table 12.4 Cement industry main indicators and energy sources by scenario 404 Table 12.5 Main technology options for the cement sector for the 2DS 406 Table 12.6 Investment needs in the cement sector to 2050 (in USD billion) 407 Table 12.7 High-value chemical, ammonia and methanol production by scenario 409 Table 12.8 Main technology options for the chemical and petrochemical sector for the 2DS 411 Table 12.9 Investment needs in the chemical and petrochemical sector to 2050 (in USD trillion) 412 Table Pulp, paper and paperboard production by scenario 413 Table Main technology options for the pulp and paper sector for the 2DS 415 Table Investment needs in the pulp and paper sector to 2050 (in USD trillion) 416 Table Alumina and aluminium production by scenario 418 Table Main technology options for the aluminium sector for the 2DS 420 Table Investment needs in the aluminium sector to 2050 (in USD billion) 420 Chapter 13 Transport 423 Table 13.1 Fuel economy status worldwide and comparison against long-term GFEI objectives (Lge/100km) 439 Table 13.2 Comparison of three options for passenger mass transport in cities 441 Table 13.3 Aircraft fleet share by aircraft type, by region in Table 13.4 Transport sector s 2020 objectives to be reached in the 2DS 446 Table 13.5 Cost range to build new road and rail infrastructure, 2010 (USD millions) 448 Table 13.6 Road and rail infrastructural kilometres and costs to Table 13.7 Cumulative transport land infrastructural cost to 2050 (USD trillions) 452

16 684 Annexes List of Figures, Tables and Boxes Chapter 14 Buildings 457 Table 14.1 Priority actions needed to deliver the outcomes of the 2DS 468 Table 14.2 Key indicators in the residential sub-sector 471 Table 14.3 Changes in residential energy demand in the 2DS compared to the 4DS 473 Table 14.4 Key indicators in the services sub-sector 474 Table 14.5 Changes in service energy demand in the 2DS compared to the 4DS 475 Chapter 15 Technology Roadmaps 479 Table 15.1 Emissions reductions and investment needs in the 2DS by technology 480 Additional tables are included for the 14 technologies Chapter : Can We Reach Zero Emissions? 513 Table 16.1 GDP projections (CAAGR) 517 Table 16.2 Electricity technologies in 2075 in the 2DS 521 Table 16.3 Technology status for the industrial sector in the alternative 2DS 523 Table 16.4 Transport key technology status in 2050 and Table 16.5 Key activities in the buildings sector 529 Table 16.6 Technology status for the buildings sector 530 Chapter 17 Regional Spotlights ASEAN Table ASEAN energy efficiency goals 538 Table ASEAN renewable energy, biofuels and nuclear goals 538 Table Key results for main industrial sectors in ASEAN 542 Table Key activity in the ASEAN buildings sector Brazil Table Key results for main industrial sectors in Brazil 553 Table Key activities in the buildings sector China Table Key results for main industrial sectors in China 563 Table Key activity in China s buildings sector European Union Table Key results for main industrial sectors in the European Union 572 Table Key activity for the buildings sector in the European Union India Table Key results for main industrial sectors in India 583 Table Key activity in the buildings sector Mexico Table Potential benefits of energy efficiency interventions in Mexico 590 Table Key results for main industrial sectors in Mexico 596 Table Key activity in the buildings sector Russia Table Key results for main industrial sectors in Russia 608 Table Key activity and projections for Russia s buildings sector South Africa Table CO 2 mitigation potential in South Africa 615 Table Key results for main industrial sectors in South Africa 620 Table Key activity in South Africa s buildings sector United States Table Key results for main industrial sectors in the United States 628 Table Key activity in the United States buildings sector 632 Annex A Analytical Approach 634 Table A.1 GDP projections in ETP 2012 (assumed identical across scenarios) 638 Table A.2 Population projections used in ETP Table A.3 Fossil fuel prices by scenario 639

17 Annexes List of Figures, Tables and Boxes 685 List of Boxes Part 1 Vision, Status and Tools for the Transition 26 Chapter 1 The Global Outlook 29 Box 1.1 ETP 2012 Scenarios 31 Box 1.2. Does the 2DS make economic sense? 38 Box 1.3. Carbon market prospects in Box 1.4. The dynamics of CO 2 abatement cost: the case of transport technologies 49 Box 1.5 IEA Model of Short-term Energy Security 52 Chapter 2 Tracking Clean Energy Progress 59 Box 2.1 Quality and availability of progress-tracking data 62 Box 2.2 Achieving competitiveness through well designed policy support 74 Box 2.3 European energy performance in buildings directive (EPBD) 86 Box 2.4 Impact of heavy duty vehicles 92 Chapter 3 Policies to Promote Technology Innovation 109 Box 3.1 Patent data as a measure of energy technology innovation 114 Box 3.2 Recommendations for good practice policy frameworks with various country examples 117 Chapter 4 Financing the Clean Energy Revolution 135 Box 4.1 Policy framework for investment in low-carbon, climate-resilient infrastructure 160 Part 2 Energy Systems 166 Chapter 5 Heating and Cooling 175 Box 5.1 Cooling technologies: Strategies for curbing cooling demand 184 Box 5.2 Integrating heat and electricity: Wind and co-generation in Denmark 188 Box 5.3 Heat pump technology 190 Box 5.4 Heat pumps versus co-generation 192 Chapter 6 Flexible Electricity Systems 201 Box 6.1 What are ancillary services? 206 Box 6.2 Relationship between peak demand and flexibility in future system planning 218 Chapter 7 Hydrogen 233 Box 7.1 Spotlight on large-scale hydrogen storage 237 Box 7.2 Energy storage requirement: Germany 256 Part 3 Fossil Fuels and CCS 268 Chapter 8 Coal Technologies 275 Box 8.1 Coal-fired power generation technologies 284 Chapter 9 Natural Gas Technologies 297 Box 9.1 Unconventional gas in China 305

18 686 Annexes List of Figures, Tables and Boxes Box 9.2 Methane hydrates 307 Box 9.3 Production of biogas in Germany and China 326 Chapter 10 Carbon Capture and Storage Technologies 337 Box 10.1 Combining CCS with biomass energy sources 350 Box 10.2 Carbon dioxide storage and enhanced oil recovery 354 Part 4 Scenarios and Technology Roadmaps 358 Chapter 12 Industry 389 Box 12.1 Investment needs and fuel savings 396 Box 12.2 Use of hydrogen in the chemical sector 411 Chapter 13 Transport 423 Box 13.1 Parking infrastructure 451 Chapter 15 Technology Roadmaps 479 Box 15.1 What is a low-carbon energy technology roadmap? 481 Chapter : Can We Reach Zero Emissions? 513 Box 16.1 Long-term emissions pathways 516