Strategic Analysis of Inductive Charging for Global Electric Vehicles (EV) Market Executive Summary

Transcription

1 Strategic Analysis of Inductive for Global Electric Vehicles (EV) Market Executive Summary January 2014

2 Executive Summary Key Findings By 2020, inductive charging is likely to account for 3.3% of both public and residential charging, with Europe leading the way due to active participation from local suppliers and OEMs. Inductive for EV Market: Key Findings, Global, 2012 Region Level Europe is expected to emerge as a market leader in inductive charging solutions by 2020 with 62% market share, followed by the United States. The main reason is the high adoption rate of electric vehicles and technological advancements by European Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) such as Volvo Car Corporation, BMW AG, and Daimler AG, and suppliers such as Bombardier and Qualcomm. Total Market The total market for inductive charging is expected to witness a CAGR of 126.6% from 2012 to Approximately 351,900 units are expected to be sold globally by 2020, with California having the highest number of charging stations in the United States and the United Kingdom leading in Europe. Technology Adoption Key Participants Inductive charging is available as an aftermarket option for Nissan Leaf and Chevrolet Volt at a price of $3,900 4,000, including installation. However, it will be available as an inbuilt solution in the premium segment cars by 2015, with Infiniti LE EV being the 1st vehicle to offer it as an option. Market participants from various verticals such as telecom, industrial automation, and utilities are transforming the industry by establishing their presence. The trend is towards partnering with OEMs at a testing phase, to evaluate the technology. 2

3 Executive Summary Key Findings and Future Outlook Inductive charging will be popular post-2015 as it will become a feature that will be available with an EV. Inductive for EV Market: Future Outlook, Global, Parameters Current Future Market Status Competition Technology The market is in a nascent stage, and has started evolving. However, tremendous research is being conducted, and aftermarket products are available. There is only 1 company offering aftermarket solution which is popular amongst EVs in North America; no OEM is offering it as an built-in solution. Magnetic resonance technology is used in the stationary applications of inductive charging, and is expected to be adopted by all inductive charging developers. The market will evolve post-2014; approximately 351,900 units are expected to be sold by The first EV to have an inductive charging as a built-in solution is expected to be Infiniti LE. However, premium OEMs will also offer it as a feature. Inductive charging in stationary application will be popular. However, dynamic charging or on-the-move charging will be popular post-2020, which will be mainly used by public transport. Entry to Market The availability of inductive charging stations will be through automakers and certified installers of inductive charging solution. Most of the OEMs will offer inductive charging on cars as it will gain importance post

4 Units (Million) Executive Summary EV Breakdown by Region PHEVs and erevs are expected to dominate with over 42% share by 2018 because of the elimination of range anxiety. EV Market: Sales Estimates, Global, Million 700,000 PHEV NEV/QC erev BEV 600, % 500, % 21.0% 43.6% 3.5% 119, % 400, , % 7.8% 9.5% 2.6% 12.0% 8.3% 9.4% 23.2% 39.2% , , % 4.9% 1.8% 56.3% 61.7% 41.8% 56.7% China Europe North America Other APAC* 51% 53.7% 2018 PHEV Plugin Hybrid Electric Vehicles NEV Neighborhood Electric Vehicles QC - Quadracycles erev Extended Range Electric Vehicles BEV Battery Electric Vehicles *Other APAC Australia, Japan, India and South Korea The base year is

5 Sales (Million) Executive Summary Inductive Sales Estimates Globally, up to 3.8 kw* inductive charging stations are expected to be widely used in next 5-7 years, mainly for residential applications. EV Infrastructure Market: Sales Estimates for Inductive Stations by Capacity, Global, , , , % 351, % 150, , % 128, % 2.0% 26.1% , % 76.6% 71.2% 100% Europe North America APAC 2020 Others kW kW Note: Other includes charging power ranging from kw Europe excludes numbers of other countries in Eastern Europe (4,010 units) Because voltage ratings APAC vary from kw, it has been segmented in kw 10.0% 90.0% 7, * kw stands for Kilo Watt Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is

6 Executive Summary Market Roadmap In Europe, Bombardier and Qualcomm will be leading the race in inductive charging as they have already demonstrated dynamic charging for EVs. Inductive for EV Market: Market Roadmap, Global, Future Outlook Standardization Implementation in vehicles Available for public charging Prototypes of dynamic charging Introduction to dynamic charging Power Up to 3.3 kw Up to 7 kw Up to 20 kw kw Time >10 hours 4 8 hours 2 4 hours Dynamic Weight kg kg kg Alignment Precise Alignment* Alignment guidance Misalignment Tolerance Technology Magnetic Resonance Usage Residential installations Public and semi-public installation Testing for dynamic charging On-themove charging Dynamic Static *Note The charging happens through the magnetic forces from transmitter (stationary coil embedded in the ground) to the receiver (secondary coil in the vehicle). The vehicle (receiver) has to be aligned with the parking pad (transmitter) to achieve maximum efficiency 6

7 Executive Summary Inductive Adoption Trends Qualcomm is one of the early adopters of the inductive charging technology and have signed a multiyear agreement with Formula E Holdings Inductive for EV Market: Key Market Trends, Global, 2012 Qualcomm-Delta Motorsport Qualcomm-Renault Google-Evatran Trial Tests They have launched prototypes and demonstration projects that have already been set with help of joint ventures and partnerships. Flanders Drive Qualcomm Bombardier Continuous R&D A significant amount is being invested in the development of this technology that is primarily focusing on increasing the efficiency, without increasing the weight and the cost. Current activities Future activities Increased Adoption OEMs have fitted the charging system on fleet vehicles for trial purposes, which will help in volume deployment, and give an early indication of its success. Nissan BMW Daimler General Motors Toyota Volkswagen AG Dynamic Dynamic charging infrastructure is being developed and tested to enable charging while the vehicle is in motion. Selected lanes are being electrified for demonstration purposes. Bombardier Qualcomm Brose-SEW Vahle Inc 7

8 Requirement Executive Summary Inductive Adoption Due to high costs, most of the OEMs have adopted to 3.3kW charging capacity; however, OEMs are focusing on implementing 6.6kW onboard chargers to enable faster charging at an extra cost. Inductive for EV Market: Level of Adoption by Capacity, Global, 2012 High capacity Description >80kW (Dynamic ) 3.3 kw Most of the vehicles have a 3.3 kw charging capacity; therefore, 3.3 kw a inductive charging system will be required by all OEMs. Medium 22 kw kw kw 6.6 kw The future trend is inclined towards 6.6 kw charging capacity. However, developing a 6.6 kw inductive charging station will increase the cost. 22 kw 22 kw charging is available only on 2 vehicles. Though the charging time is reduced, the cost of the inductive charging station will not be economically feasible. Low Medium Adoption rate High >80 kw Inductive charging applications above 80 kw will be generally used for dynamic charging. Though it has many advantages over other technologies, it will not be implemented in the near future due to high developmental costs. 8

9 Technology Advancement Executive Summary Future Trends Infiniti LE EV is expected to be the 1st EV to be launched during 2015 with an built-in inductive charging technology. Inductive for EV Market: Future Market Trends, Global, Test projects OEMs such as Audi, BMW, and Renault-Nissan may start adopting the inductive charging as a built-in or optional feature Increased and established supplier base Strategic alliances between OEMs and technology suppliers Demonstration projects for static charging Test tracks for dynamic charging Establish standards Initial launch of EVs with inductive charging as an option; for instance, Potentially Infiniti LE EV Customers will have to pay additional costs for the option, as it will considered as a choice and not a necessity. 2nd phase for dynamic charging Initial launch of dynamic charging Inductive charging available as an option by default. Technology to be considered necessary to increase the convenience and safety by eliminating the use of cables and plugs

10 Executive Summary AC Power Output The future trend will continue to focus on kW inductive charging stations as it is will be adopted for residential charging. Inductive for EV Market: Voltage Specifications, Global, 2012 Region Voltage Phase Current Output Power (kw) 230 Single AC 16 A 3.7 Europe 230 * * 3 Single or Three AC 32 A * 1 or 16 A * * 3 Three AC 16 A * * 3 Three AC 32 A * 3 22 North America 120 Single AC 12 A Single AC 16 A Three AC 32 A 7.6 Japan 100 Single AC 20 A Single AC 20 A 3.0 The market trend is inclined toward having kw onboard chargers; therefore, 3.3 kw inductive charging will be widely adopted by OEMs to enable residential and semi-public charging. However, with time, vehicles will trend towards 6.6kW apart from onboard chargers to enable faster charging. Only Japan has been covered in the APAC market. Japan is a good market for EVs, and covers the major market within APAC. Therefore, an overview of Japan is provided, instead of listing all other countries. Current Specifications Future Specifications 10

11 Executive Summary Comparative Analysis The European market is expected to emerge as early adopters, as OEMs like Audi, BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen will be introducing the technology in their product-line, in the near future. Inductive Market Comparative Analysis of charging Methodology by OEM, Global, OEMs Models Onboard Charger Opel Ampera 3.3 kw BMW i3 6.6 kw Ford Motor Company Connect EV 3.3 kw Smart Fortwo 3.3 kw/22 kw Mitsubishi Motors Peugeot Citroen (PSA) i-miev ion 3.3 kw 3.3 kw Renault-Nissan Leaf 3.3 kw/6.6 kw AC DC Chademo Combo Inductive Mia Electric Mia 3.3 kw Toyota Prius PHV 3.3 kw General Motors Volt 3.3 kw Renault-Nissan Zoe 43 kw LEGEND No Option Unsure Wait and Watch Short Term Plans Available 11

12 Executive Summary Adoption of Different Types of Business Models Qualcomm has adopted a unique business model which is based on licensing of technology, which will help them to work as technology developers as well as integrators. Inductive for EV Market: Business Model, Global, 2012 Innovative Solutions Revenue Technology Suppliers EV Ecosystem EV Service Users Revenue Advanced Services Inductive On-the-move charging Qualcomm Bombardier Brose-SEW Evatran Flander s Drive Licensing Partnerships station operators station manufacturers Infrastructure operators EV applications Advanced payment systems Easy access Optimized billing services EV drivers Fleet operators Parking Operators Municipalities Subscriptionbased payments Pay-per-use Value added service Government initiative 12

13 Executive Summary Competitor Analysis Attractive financing options are being offered to increase the uptake of inductive charging station for EVs. Inductive for EV Market: Comparative Analysis, 2012 Company Attributes Alliance Announced Power Launch Year Plan to Provide Inbuilt in Vehicle Tested in Research Vehicles Pilot Projects Development for Dynamic Bombardier* kw 2013* Brose-SEW 3.6 kw 2015 Delphi Corporation 3.6 kw 2014 Plugless Power (Evatran) Qualcomm* kw 3.3 kw * Siemens Corporation 3.6 kw 2015 * Technology has been tested successfully for static and dynamic charging 13

14 Executive Summary Cost Analysis In the United States (US), Plugless Power is installing inductive charging solutions in the Nissan Leaf and Chevrolet Volt at an additional cost of $3,650 and $3,550 respectively. Inductive for EV Market: Cost Split Analysis, Global, 2012 Component Percent of Cost Split (%) Vehicle Adapter 20 Vehicle Electronics Module 15 Display Panel 5 Power Module Box 24 Parking Pad on the Ground 31 Communication Module 5 100% Available Aftermarket Inductive Solutions Component Parking pad and control panel Vehicle adapter and hardware Nissan Leaf ($) Chevrolet Volt ($) 1,800 1,800 1,100 1,000 Installation Pedestal mount (optional) Total $3,650 $3,550 This price is applicable to a production volume of 10,000 15,000 units. 14

15 Executive Summary Standardization Taskforce in the US The taskforce will determine the minimum performance criteria for charging efficiency, develop safety criteria and reveal a common interface for inductive charging in EVs. Inductive for the EV Market: Standardization of Inductive, US, 2012 SAE J2954 Alignment and Communication Testing and Validation Magnetic Field Interoperability Verification of Performance and Safety Bus WPT Frequency Determination Qualcomm EDL* General Motors Toyoto HaloIPT Daimler Witricity Volvo Momentum Dynamics Delphi Ford Objectives of the taskforce Determine minimum performance criteria for efficiency Develop safety criteria by coordinating with industry trends Create a matrix of available technologies Develop a common interface for vehicles Develop protocol and determine means of communication. *EDL stands for Energy Dynamics Laboratory Automotive OEMs Audi, BMW, Chrysler, Coda Automotive, Daimler, Fisker Automotive, Ford, General Motors, Honda Motor Co, Mitsubishi, Nissan, Phoenix Automotive, and Toyota Tier I suppliers Delphi, Magna International, Maxwell Technologies, and Panasonic Corporation 15