The Geopolitics of Shale Oil

Transcription

1 The Geopolitics of Shale Oil 22 nd Williston Basin Petroleum Conference Bismark, ND May 22, 2014 THOMAS A. PETRIE, CFA PETRIE PARTNERS, CHAIRMAN

2 Topics Geopolitical Energy News is Ubiquitous Oil Price Drivers Today s Transformed Outlook Looming Issues with Geopolitical Consequences Shifting Globalization Trends Possible Global Oil Supply Dynamics: Concluding Observations 1

3 Geopolitical Energy News is Ubiquitous Germany turns against West on Russia Americans Want to Pull Back From World Stage, Poll Finds 2

4 Oil Price Drivers: Geopolitical Events are Fundamental WORLD EVENTS AND OIL PRICES NOMINAL PRICING ( ) $160 $140 Fiscal Cliff fallout concerns Syrian civil war escalates $120 $100 Prices spike on Iraq war, rapid demand increases, constrained OPEC capacity, low inventories, etc. $80 $60 $40 Iranian Revolution shah deposed Iran-Iraq War begins; oil prices peak Saudis abandon swing producer role; oil prices collapse Gulf War ends OPEC agrees to quota increase Prices rise sharply on OPEC cutbacks, increased demand Back from the global abyss $20 $0 $0 OPEC agrees to quotas 1973 Arab Oil Embargo Iraq invades Kuwait Prices fall sharply on 9/11 attacks, economy weakness Fear of global economic meltdown

5 Oil Price Drivers: Global Population Historical vs. Projected Global Population Million Billion Billion Global population today is about 7 billion Projected to grow to about 8 billion by % live in non-oecd countries Non-OECD countries have rapidly growing energy needs Source: ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook, United Nations and the World Bank. 4

6 Today s Transformed Outlook CONFIRMED SOURCES OF SHALE GAS AND OIL SHALE PRODUCTION Horn River 100+ Tcfe Montney 70 Tcfe Utica 24+ Tcfe Bakken BBoe Marcellus Tcfe Fayetteville Niobrara 4 6 BBoe Tcfe Woodford Tcfe Mississippian 3-6 BBoe Barnett Tcfe Granite Wash Permian Eagle Ford Haynesville 1.5+ BBoe 2-20 BBoe 700 1,400 Tcfe from gas and liquids-rich gas shale plays 5 10 BBoe Tcfe BBoe from unconventional oil shale plays Source: United States Geological Survey, EIA and Select Wall Street research. 5

7 MBopd Today s Transformed Outlook U.S. OIL PRODUCTION BY TYPE IN NEW POLICIES SCENARIO Light Tight Oil Other Unconventional Oil NGLs 4 2 Crude Oil: Oil: Fields yet-to-be found Field yet-to-be developed Currently producing Note: The World Energy Model supply model starts producing yet-to-find oil after it has put all yetto-develop fields into production. In reality, some yet-to-find fields would start production earlier than shown in the figure. Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook

8 Today s Transformed Outlook A PATH TO PETROLEUM FLEXIBILITY 2010 US Production 7.0 MMBpd US Imports 10.5 MMBpd Total US Demand 17.5 MMBpd Oil equivalent of gas exports NA 2018 Canadian Oil Supplies 2.5 MMBpd US Production 10.0 MMBpd Non North American Imports 8.0 MMBpd Total US Demand 16.9 MMBpd US Imports 6.9 MMBpd Demand reduction from 2010 to 2018 results from fuel efficiencies and hybrid vehicles Oil equivalent of gas exports 0.6 MMBpd Canadian Oil Supplies 3.0 MMBpd Non North American Imports 3.9 MMBpd Demand reduction from 2018 to 2025 results from fuel efficiencies and gas/electric vehicles 2025 US Production 11.0 MMBpd US Imports 4.2 MMBpd Total US Demand 15.2 MMBpd Oil equivalent of gas exports 1.5 MMBpd North American Constructive surplus 0.8 MMBpd Increase in production combined with decrease in demand signals the likelihood of domestic surplus Canadian Oil Supplies 3.5 MMBpd Non North American Imports 0.7 MMBpd Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2012 and Thomas A. Petrie s Following Oil. 7

9 Looming Issues with Geopolitical Consequences U.S. Oil Exports? Keystone Pipeline?? Oil by Rail (Capacity vs. Safety) Natural Gas Exports 8

10 Shifting Globalization Trends GEOPOLITICAL CONSIDERATIONS Evolving Power Triangles Russia Ukraine Turkey Syria Iran? China Historical view: To US and West Saudi Arabia New view to east India 9

11 Midpoint of Projeced Annual Incremental Growth (MMBopd) Possible Global Oil Supply / Demand Dynamics: (Volumes in MMBopd) 2.5 Annual Global Dem and Growth Annual Increm ental Supply United States Potential Oversupply Iraq Other Middle East Brazil T otal Total Incremental Supply Global Demand Growth 10

12 Concluding Observations Unconventional oil development has dramatically improved North American supply elasticity Oil s fungibility, relative ease of transport, and the petroleum sector s absolute size all argue for its ongoing critical role in global economic growth and world trade Current pressures, especially in the Ukraine and Syria, considerably complicate geopolitical energy policy calculations Depending on the sustainability of recent levels of growth in global petroleum demand, strategies to deal with moderate systemic oversupply may become necessary 11