Suzanne Minter. Manager, Oil and Gas Consulting BENTEK Energy. Natural Gas Outlook

Transcription

1 Suzanne Minter Manager, Oil and Gas Consulting BENTEK Energy Natural Gas Outlook

2 North American Natural Gas The Fertilizer Institute November, Platts, McGraw Hill Financial. All rights reserved.

3 Talking points This summer saved us storage at unforeseen levels could pressure near term price outlook North American production growth continues to shape market; breaking traditional flow patterns and pricing relationships Drilling economics favor wet plays with NGLs or Oil over dry Natural Gas plays. US production growth is very focused on the Utica and Marcellus plays in the Northeast. Gas fired power generation demand rises while industrial demand growth increases especially in the Gulf Coast. New North American gas production exceeds domestic demand growth in forecast; exports (LNG + Mexico) required to balance market 3

4 Filled storage just in time for winter..

5 2014 summer vs summer Supply Side Demand Side Dom Prod LNG Can Imports Supply Power Industrial Res/Com Mex Ex Demand Summer 2014 : 2.6 Bcf/d Long Versus Summer 2013 Source: BENTEK Supply & Demand Report

6 Storage inventory carry out within ~200 Bcf of the 5 year average US Storage Inventories (Bcf) 4,000 3,750 3,500 3,250 3,000 2,750 2,500 2,250 2,000 1,750 1,500 1,250 1, Yr Avg 5 Yr Min 2013/2014 LT Forecast Source: EIA/BENTEK Market Call Short Term

7 YTD production continues to boom Since August YOY is up 4.5 Bcf/d Forecast tend to continue Bcf/d +4.5 Bcf/d Bcf/d Source: EIA/BENTEK Forecast

8 Winter over winter outlook (0.3) (0.1) (0.1) (1.4) (4.4) (3.9) 3.0 Imports from Canada Industrial Demand Power Demand Res/comm Demand Pipe Loss Exports to Mexico Total Demand Production LNG Total Supply Winter vs. Winter (Bcf/d) US looks to be net long 6.9 Bcf/d winter over winter

9 Production Growth Trumps High Demand Case Bcf High demand scenario: o res/comm demand from Winter o adds 130 Bcf of freeze offs beyond base forecast o all other fundamentals constant What if we get another record setting winter? o 760 Bcf lower season ending inventory in high demand scenario o total volumes withdrawn are still nearly 400 Bcf less than withdrawal o inventories end above year ago levels US Storage inventories Base Forecast High winter demand forecast

10 Long Term Outlook

11 To date displaced imports coupled with increased domestic demand have balanced US NG growth (3.6) (1.0) Total Supply Production Imports from Canada LNG Demand from Power ResComm Demand Industrial Demand Bcf/d Exports to Mexico LNG Exports Pipe Loss Total Demand Fundamentals Source: BENTEK Cell Model

12 Going forward, power burn and exports are key balancing items to lower 48 NG growth (0.6) (0.1) 5.8 (0.2) Total Supply Production Imports from Canada LNG Demand from Power ResComm Demand Industrial Demand Exports to Mexico Bcf/d LNG Exports Pipe Loss Total Demand Fundamentals Source: BENTEK Cell Model

13 Plays with high returns attract drilling rigs 51/ 3 33/ 2 7/+1 21/+1 1/+1 9/+4 Rig Increases Dry Gas Focused Areas Rig Increases Liquids Rich/Oil Focused Areas Rig Declines CALIFORNIA OTHER ROCKIES 37/+6 196/+33 POWDER RIVER WIND RIVER GREEN RIVER UINTA SAN JUAN 13/+1 PICEANCE 1/+1 RATON PERMIAN 567/+106 WILLISTON 64/+12 D-J ANADARKO 253/+38 47/ 26 FT WORTH OTHER MIDCONTINENT 134/+15 EAST TX 234/+15 86/+22 7/ 1 40/+10 38/+8 ILLINOIS 5/ 4 53/+20 UTICA 19/+9 ARK FAYETTEVILLE 12/+2 ARK WOODFORD ARKLA TX GULF EAGLE FORD 21/ 1 86/ 25 MICHIGAN 26/+14 AL-MS-FL LA GULF TX GULF OFFSHORE 48/ 3 46/+7 1/ 3 OTHER APPALACHIAN MARCELLUS DRY MARCELLUS WET TOTAL 2173 CHANGE +253 Source: BENTEK, Nov 2014 Active rig count: Nov 7, 2014 / Change in rig count from Nov 1, 2013

14 Production in the US to reach 83 Bcf/d by 2019 driven by NE growth +0.3 (0.1) +0.9 (0.1) US Gas Growth Bcf/d Source: Bentek CellCast Oct

15 Backlog: Rely on expansion projects to relieve well backlog 2,500 Well Backlog by Production Region (drilled but not producing) 2,000 # Wells 1,500 1, ,992 Wells in Inventory 5 10 Bcf/d of Trapped Production NE PA Dry South PA Dry SW PA WV Wet WV Dry OH 15

16 Southeast expansion projects bring 15 Bcf/d of capacity LNG Demand LNG Demand LNG Demand SE Demand Pipeline Capacity MMcf/d Transco TETCO 2.62 Tennessee Gas 3.17 Texas Gas 1.21 Trunkline 1* Columbia Gulf 1.44 NGPL 0.75 ANR 0.6* Total 15 16

17 US demand growth relies on exports US Demand Bcf/d +0.5 US Domestic Demand Bcf/d Source: : Bentek CellCast Sep

18 New Gas Fired Generation and Coal Retirements Lead to Significant Increase in Power Demand Under Construction Year MW , , , , Total 13, Gas Burn Equivalent 1.2 Bcf/d US Power Gen Demand Growth Bcf/d (27%) Under Construction + Proposed Gas Burn Equivalent 5.3 Bcf/d Gas Burn Equivalent assumes all plants are combined cycle running at 50% utilization with heat rates of 7.5. Source: North American Power Plant Databank 18

19 Southeast leads industrial demand growth Industrial Growth Bcf/d Source: : Bentek CellCast October 2014, Industrial Project Tracker 19

20 High concentration of projects on gulf coast Nearly 90% comprised of Methanol and Ammonia Plants LNG Terminal 20

21 US LNG exports hit 7 Bcf/d by 2019 and 8 Bcf/d by LNG Exports By Facility (Bcf/d) 11.6Bcf/d of MOUs have been signed on 17.4 Bcf/d of proposed capacity. LNG Exports could average 8Bcf/d in 2020 Export forecast risk is to the upside Sabine Pass Freeport Cameron Cove Point Lake Charles Elba Island Gulf Coast Export Terminals: Freeport LNG 1.76 Bcf/d Lake Charles 2 Bcf/d Sabine Pass 2.4 Bcf/d Cameron 1.6 Bcf/d 21

22 Mexico plans more than 40 Gas fired power projects Bcf/d Mexican Power Expansion Exports to Mexico to Increase Bcf/d to 3.6 Bcf/d by 27, MW %; 7.5 heat rate Mexico s Pipeline Expansion Program: 17 Pipeline Expansions 9 Border Crossing Projects 4 Bcf/d US Import Capacity Increase 2014 Vs 2019 Average Annual Exports to Mexico Forecast 22

23 Growth in power burn critical as well as with LNG and Mexican exports to balance production forecast Bcf/d Long Bcf/d Long 27.4 Bcf/d PIPE LOSS RC INDUSTRIAL POWER Mex Exports LNG EXPORT Production Total Supply Source: BENTEK Market Call Long Term NG

24 NYMEX Forward Curve Expectations $5.00 $4.80 $4.60 $4.40 $4.20 $4.00 $3.80 $3.60 $3.40 $3.20 $4.16 Bentek Average ($4.04 NYMEX) Thru Dec 2019 Summer 2015 looks increasingly bearish $0.49 Delta Between NYMEX and Bentek 2019; Demand Assumptions NYMEX (11/14/14) BENTEK HH Spot Forecast (10/27/14) Source: BENTEK Market Call Short/Long Term, NYMEX

25 Biggest Risk To Production Scenerio

26 Gas, oil and NGL price comparison: MMBTU equivalent $/MMBtu Equivalent $30.00 $25.00 $20.00 $15.00 $10.00 $5.00 $0.00 WTI HH MB NGL Brent CAPP

27 Associated gas production accounts for 45% of current supply Bcf/d Bentek Dry Natural Gas Forecast by Basin Focus % 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% % Associated Gas Lean Gas Focus NGL Focus Oil Focus % Associated Gas 27

28 Oil weighted production tilts play economics Anadarko & Perm forecast to yield 7 Bcf/d associated gas 100% 60% 90% 80% 50% 70% 40% % of Production 60% 50% 40% 30% IRR 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% Oil % Gas % NGLs % Nov'14 Nov 2014 Price Assumptions: Gas = 12 month forward average curve for each regional pricing point (range $2.77 $4.02/Mcf) Oil = 12 month forward average WTI +/ differential (range $62.89 $83.80barrel) NGLs = weighted average $/barrel, 12 mo forward average Mt. Belvieu prices (range $28.71 $40.02/barrel)

29 Southeast production forecast remains at risk needs sustained higher prices Return to Growth Is at Risk Bcf/d Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Offshore Other Fayetteville Haynesville

30 More than ~41 Bcf/d of announced capacity expansions in the Northeast by 2019; Only 32 Bcf/d will provide takeaway for production NE PA Dry 8.0 Bcf/d Wet Marcellus/Utica 24 Bcf/d Even with well inventory back log, drilling activity needs to increase in order to fill all the expansions announced for the region. Potential for 20 Bcf of additional capacity announced above our current flow forecast

31 Key Takeaways Year on year production growth coupled with weather are key to determining the storage situation North American production growth continues to shape market; breaking traditional flow patterns and pricing relationships In current price environment drilling economics favor wet plays with NGLs or Oil over dry Natural Gas plays Supply is demand constrained new North American gas production exceeds domestic demand growth in forecast; exports (LNG + Mexico) required to balance market Long term prices of NG, NGLs and Crude may help determine where production growth comes from and how proposed pipeline infrastructure may be builtout 31

32 Thank You Suzanne Minter, Manager, Oil & Gas Consulting Services 2013 Platts, McGraw Hill Financial. All rights reserved.