Keeping Our Options Open: Markets for Canadian Crude and the Pipeline Dilemma

Transcription

1 Keeping Our Options Open: Markets for Canadian Crude and the Pipeline Dilemma Trisha Curtis, Research Analyst Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc. (EPRINC) CERI Oil Conference 2012 April 23 rd, 2012 Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc st St, NW Washington, DC

2 EPRINC stands for Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc. Non-profit research group that does economic and policy analysis on the petroleum industry Founded in 1944 in New York. Established as a group to explain markets and fundamentals Previously the Petroleum Industry Research Foundation, Inc (PIRINC) until we moved to Washington in 2007 Grew largely into a downstream organization, but have since moved extensively into upstream and midstream Extensive work on ethanol, refining, U.S. shale plays, Keystone XL -- check out our research, its free Who is EPRINC? Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc st St, NW Washington, DC

3 Main Discussion Points 1) In the past ten years Canadian imports into the US have steadily rose along with a surge in US production 2) Not all of the natural markets for Canadian crude in the U.S. have been tapped as planned and now there are multiple existing bottlenecks in the US, putting pricing pressure on Bakken and Canadian crude 3) Canadian crude, along with US stranded crude, must now search for alternative routes, markets, and transportation in order to capture a higher value 4) US crude is now moving by rail will more Canadian crude begin to seek this option? Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc st St, NW Washington, DC

4 Markets for Canadian Crude The current markets for Canadian crude are the Rockies (PADD 4) and the Midwest (PADD 2) The potential exists in Asia and the Gulf Coast substantially knocking out heavy Mexican and Venezuelan imports in the US Gulf Coast But due to regulatory and environmental hurdles, PADD III access has been postponed and thereby tightness has been created and too much light sweet in the market, no need for SCO in the U.S. Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc st St, NW Washington, DC

5 Canadian Crude Flows Source: Canadian Pipeline Transportation System, NEB, July 2009 Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc st St, NW Washington, DC

6 So what s the big deal? It this a renaissance or something? Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc st St, NW Washington, DC

7 NPC Findings Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc st St, NW Washington, DC

8 Some Recent Forecasts projected 3,100 Mb/d increase (36%) in U.S. and Canadian oil production and.900 Mb/d increase in Canadian oil exports to the U.S. between 2011 and 2016 (BENTEK) U.S. oil imports (excluding imports from Canada) are projected to drop 41%, or 2,800 Mb/d, to an average of 3,900 Mb/d in (BENTEK) We re now forecasting that U.S. oil production (excluding NGLs) will grow from 5.6 MMBpd in 2010 to a whopping 9.1 MMBpd in Including natural gas liquids, total U.S. petroleum liquid production grows 60% from 7.7 MMBpd in 2010 to 12.2 MMBpd in (RAYMOND JAMES) Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc st St, NW Washington, DC

9 1/1/ /1/1995 7/1/1996 4/1/1997 1/1/ /1/1998 7/1/1999 4/1/2000 1/1/ /1/2001 7/1/2002 4/1/2003 1/1/ /1/2004 7/1/2005 4/1/2006 1/1/ /1/2007 7/1/2008 4/1/2009 1/1/ /1/2010 7/1/2011 4/1/2012 1/1/ /1/2013 7/1/2014 4/1/2015 1/1/ /1/2016 7/1/2017 million barrels per day EPRINC Unconventionals Production and Forecast Eagle Ford Liquid Daily Average Bakken/Three Forks Liquid Daily Average Niobrara/Codell Liquids Daily Average Permian Basin Liquids Daily Average Source: HDPI data, EPRINC estimates Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc st St, NW Washington, DC

10 Total Canadian Oil Production (NEB Reference Case) Additional 1 mbd in three years = tightness Source: Canada s Energy Future: Energy Supply and Demand Projections to Nov NEB Maybe some upside in tight oil Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc st St, NW Washington, DC

11 Canadian Consumption to Remain Flat.Every incremental barrel must be exported Source: EIA Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc st St, NW Washington, DC

12 U.S. Production Increases Additional 2-3 mbd by 2016 = tightness 2016 Source: EIA and EPRINC estimates from NDPA and HPDI Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc st St, NW Washington, DC

13 U.S. Rig Count Source: HPDI April 20 th, 2012 Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc st St, NW Washington, DC

14 U.S. Shale/Tight Oil and Conventional Plays Source: EPRINC, not to scale Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc st St, NW Washington, DC

15 U.S. and North Dakota Rig Count 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Oil Gas North Dakota Source: Baker Hughes Oct All but 50 rigs nationwide are onshore. Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc st St, NW Washington, DC

16 Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Barrels Per Day Williston Basin Production 600, , ,000 North Dakota Eastern Montana South Dakota 300,000 TOTAL 200, ,000 0 North Dakota accounts for almost 10% of US Production Almost all new production is from the Bakken/Three Forks Source: NDIC Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc st St, NW Washington, DC

17 1/1/ /1/1985 9/1/1986 7/1/1987 5/1/1988 3/1/1989 1/1/ /1/1990 9/1/1991 7/1/1992 5/1/1993 3/1/1994 1/1/ /1/1995 9/1/1996 7/1/1997 5/1/1998 3/1/1999 1/1/ /1/2000 9/1/2001 7/1/2002 5/1/2003 3/1/2004 1/1/ /1/2005 9/1/2006 7/1/2007 5/1/2008 3/1/2009 1/1/ /1/2010 9/1/2011 Barrels Per Day mcf/day Eagle Ford Production GAS LIQ 0 0 Source: HPDI April 20, 2012 Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc st St, NW Washington, DC

18 What s happening to prices? Source: AFPM Map,; Mar Bloomberg Brent and WTI Prices; Flint Hills and estimates, Canadian assumptions Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc st St, NW Washington, DC

19 Brent, WTI, and Bakken Markets Source: AFPM Map,; April 20, 2012 Bloomberg Brent and WTI Prices; Flint Hills and estimates, Canadian assumptions Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc st St, NW Washington, DC

20 Bakken Prices at Clearbrook Source: Bloomberg, April 20th, 2012 Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc st St, NW Washington, DC

21 $/Barrel North Dakota Discounts Canadian discounts even steeper North Dakota Light Sweet WTI Spot Brent Spot 0 Source: Flint Hills, EIA, and estimates Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc st St, NW Washington, DC

22 Why? Source: AFPM Map,; Mar Bloomberg Brent and WTI Prices; Flint Hills and estimates, Canadian assumptions Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc st St, NW Washington, DC

23 Choke Points Source: Savage background map of pipelines and refineries, Presentation Bakken Product Markets and Take-Away Denver Jan 31-Feb with EPRINC analytical Additions Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc st St, NW Washington, DC

24 U.S. Imports of Canadian Crude Source: EIA Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc st St, NW Washington, DC

25 Where heavy (blended bitumen) needs to go Total Coking Capacity vs. Atmospheric Crude Distillation Capacity by PADD Source: AFPM map, EIA data for graph Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc st St, NW Washington, DC

26 Canadian Crude Imports into PADD II Midwest (PADD 2) Imports by PADD of Processing of Crude Oil Midwest (PADD 2) Imports by PADD of Processing from Canada of Crude Oil Source: EIA Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc st St, NW Washington, DC

27 Only Imports to the Rockies are Canadian Rocky Mountain (PADD 4) Imports by PADD of Processing from Canada of Crude Oil Rocky Mountain (PADD 4) Imports by PADD of Processing of Crude Oil Source: EIA Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc st St, NW Washington, DC

28 Canadian Crude Imports into PADD III Almost Zero Gulf Coast (PADD 3) Imports by PADD of Processing from Canada of Crude Oil Gulf Coast (PADD 3) Imports by PADD of Processing of Crude Oil Source: EIA Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc st St, NW Washington, DC

29 Canadian Crude Imports into PADD I East Coast (PADD 1) Imports by PADD of Processing of Crude Oil East Coast (PADD 1) Imports by PADD of Processing from Canada of Crude Oil Source: EIA Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc st St, NW Washington, DC

30 Canadian Crude Imports into PADD V West Coast (PADD 5) Imports by PADD of Processing from Canada of Crude Oil West Coast (PADD 5) Imports by PADD of Processing of Crude Oil Source: EIA Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc st St, NW Washington, DC

31 Source: Canadian Energy Pipeline Association with EPRINC additions Canadian Pipeline Export Options Kinder Morgan s Transmountain line off BC coast- currently 300,000 b/d capacityrecent announcements to expand up to 800,000 b/d (early 2017) Platte line to Wood River 280,000 b/d-full Enbridge mainline system currently transporting over 1.5 mbd with potential capacity around 2.5 mbd TransCanada s Keystone 581,000 b/d-full Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc st St, NW Washington, DC

32 PADD II will be importing more HEAVY.pushing out light Source: Enbridge presentation April 2012, Denver, Platts Rockies Oil and Gas Conference Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc st St, NW Washington, DC

33 Canadian Imports and Potential Markets Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc st St, NW Washington, DC

34 U.S. Imports by API Gravity Source: EIA Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc st St, NW Washington, DC

35 Your options in the short to medium term Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc st St, NW Washington, DC

36 Shale Oil Plays and Existing Oil Pipeline Network Source: Savage, Presentation Bakken Product Markets and Take-Away Denver Jan 31-Feb Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc st St, NW Washington, DC

37 North American Rail Map New markets Diversification Neat Barrels Nimble- Quickly adjustable Source: Watco Companies LLC, Presentation Bakken Product Markets and Take-Away Denver Jan 31-Feb Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc st St, NW Washington, DC

38 Number of Railcars Average weekly U.S. railcar loads of crude oil and petroleum products Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, based on the Association of American Railroads. Note: Data are weekly average originations for each month, are not seasonally adjusted, and exclude U.S. operations of Canadian National Railways and Canadian Pacific Railway; one carload holds 30,000 gallons. Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc st St, NW Washington, DC

39 North Dakota Crude Oil Transport October Estimates December Estimates January Estimates Source: North Dakota Pipeline Authority Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc st St, NW Washington, DC

40 Barrels Per Day ND Pipeline and Rail Take-Away Capacity Rail Only Total Pipeline Only * 2014* 2015* Source: North Dakota Pipeline Authority, Included Planned Projects Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc st St, NW Washington, DC

41 Value of Rail vs. Pipeline Volume flexibility (ups and downs in production) access new and high value markets (St.James LLS prices) Neat Barrels Long-term stability, reliability low cost transport to traditional and liquid markets Competes with rail and local refineries for incremental barrels Competitive for every incremental barrel (a lot of new barrels coming on) Source: Hess, Presentation Bakken Product Markets and Take-Away Denver Jan 31-Feb Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc st St, NW Washington, DC

42 Conclusions US and Canadian production surging Pipelines are being built, but right now their exists tightness need Gateway, XL, and Costal options for US and Canadian crude Rail is a serious option for US producers distanced from refining centers Rail could be an alternative shipping method for oil sands producers as they look to diversify their options and secure stable prices markets exist where pipeline doesn t (especially with XL delay and Gateway uncertainty) Blended bitumen needs to get to the Gulf and potentially PADD V Bakken light sweet needs to get to East Coast PADD I.only so much light sweet can be sent to Cushing and down into Gulf Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc st St, NW Washington, DC