The Impact of Dollar Devaluation on World Oil Industry: Do Exchange Rates Matter?

Save this PDF as:
 WORD  PNG  TXT  JPG

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "The Impact of Dollar Devaluation on World Oil Industry: Do Exchange Rates Matter?"

Transcription

1 The Impact of Dollar Devaluation on World Oil Industry: Do Exchange Rates Matter? A. F. Alhajji, Ph.D. Associate Professor College of Business Administration Ohio Northern university Ada, Oh, 4581 A. F. Alhajji. July 24 1

2 Outline Introduction The Impact of Exchange Rates on Supply Exchange Rates and Drilling Activities Exchange Rates and Production Exchange Rates and Exports Exchange Rates and Purchasing Power Exchange Rates and Inflation The Impact of Exchange Rates on Demand The direct impact The indirect impact Empirical Evidence Conclusions A. F. Alhajji. July 24 2

3 Facts Crude Oil is priced in US dollars while products are priced in local currencies. Oil revenues for countries and most oil companies are in US dollars. International oil companies operate around the world and use different currencies. Producing countries trade is denominated in US dollars and other world currencies. Producing countries have different trade partners. A. F. Alhajji. July 24 3

4 Observations Oil Prices are high only in dollars but they are relatively low in other currencies, especially the Euro and the yen. See the four figures below A. F. Alhajji. July 24 4

5 Oil Prices in Dollar and Euro $& /b WTI ($) Brent ( ) /4/1999 4/4/1999 7/4/1999 1/4/1999 1/4/2 4/4/2 7/4/2 1/4/2 1/4/21 4/4/21 7/4/21 1/4/21 1/4/22 4/4/22 7/4/22 1/4/22 1/4/23 4/4/23 7/4/23 1/4/23 1/4/24 4/4/24 A. F. Alhajji. July 24 5

6 Oil Prices Dollar and Yen $ Oil Price Oil Price $/b /b A. F. Alhajji. July 24 6

7 Oil Prices in Dollar and DM $ Oil Price DM Oil Price Oct-73 Oct-74 Oct-75 Oct-76 Oct-77 Oct-78 Oct-79 Oct-8 Oct-81 Oct-82 Oct-83 Oct-84 Oct-85 Oct-86 Oct-87 Oct-88 Oct-89 Oct-9 Oct-91 Oct-92 Oct-93 Oct-94 Oct-95 Oct-96 Oct-97 Oct-98 Oct-99 Oct- Oct-1 Oct-2 Oct-3 A. F. Alhajji. July 24 7

8 Oil Prices in Dollar and Sterling $/ /b $ Oil Price Oil Price Oct-73 Oct-74 Oct-75 Oct-76 Oct-77 Oct-78 Oct-79 Oct-8 Oct-81 Oct-82 Oct-83 Oct-84 Oct-85 Oct-86 Oct-87 Oct-88 Oct-89 Oct-9 Oct-91 Oct-92 Oct-93 Oct-94 Oct-95 Oct-96 Oct-97 Oct-98 Oct-99 Oct- Oct-1 Oct-2 Oct-3 A. F. Alhajji. July 24 8

9 Results Dollar devaluation reduces oil supply and increases oil demand. Dollar devaluation reduces drilling activties in some areas such as the North Sea. Dollar devaluation reduces drilling activities in the oil producing countries. It reduces their purchasing power and causes inflation. Dollar devaluation increases oil demand in Europe and Japan Dollar devaluation increases oil demand in the US as US tourists spend their vacations in the US instead of Europe. A. F. Alhajji. July 24 9

10 Observations on Drilling Activities Drilling activities are highly correlated with oil prices There is a lag when prices increase. No lag when prices decrease. Changes in the world rig count are misleading. They follow changes in US. This pattern does not hold in recent months. Is it because of dollar devaluation? A. F. Alhajji. July 24 1

11 Observations on Drilling Activities Drilling activities in the Middle East and Latin America are highly correlated with oil prices in US dollars Drilling activities in Europe are positively correlated with oil prices in Euro and negatively correlated with oil prices in US dollars. As prices in Euro decrease (lower dollar), rig count decreases. As the dollar goes down, rig count goes down See the following six figures. A. F. Alhajji. July 24 11

12 Oil Prices and Rig Count U.S. World Oil Price Rigs $/B Price January 1976 January 1977 January 1978 January 1979 January 198 January 1981 January 1982 January 1983 January 1984 January 1985 January 1986 January 1987 January 1988 January 1989 January 199 January 1991 January 1992 January 1993 January 1994 January 1995 January 1996 January 1997 January 1998 January 1999 January 2 January 21 January 22 January 23 January 24 January A. F. Alhajji. July 24 12

13 Oil Prices ($) and Rig Count (Latin America) $/b 4 Latin America Oil Price Rigs January 1976 January 1977 January 1978 January 1979 January 198 January 1981 January 1982 January 1983 January 1984 January 1985 January 1986 January 1987 January 1988 January 1989 January 199 January 1991 January 1992 January 1993 January 1994 January 1995 January 1996 January 1997 January 1998 January 1999 January 2 January 21 January 22 January 23 January 24 January A. F. Alhajji. July 24 13

14 Oil Prices and Rig Count (Middle East) M East Oil Price Rigs $ January 1976 January 1977 January 1978 January 1979 January 198 January 1981 January 1982 January 1983 January 1984 January 1985 January 1986 January 1987 January 1988 January 1989 January 199 January 1991 January 1992 January 1993 January 1994 January 1995 January 1996 January 1997 January 1998 January 1999 January 2 January 21 January 22 January 23 January 24 January A. F. Alhajji. July 24 14

15 Rig Count: World-US, US, Vs. Oil Prices 5 World-US U.S. Oil Price Rigs $/b Price January 1976 January 1977 January 1978 January 1979 January 198 January 1981 January 1982 January 1983 January 1984 January 1985 January 1986 January 1987 January 1988 January 1989 January 199 January 1991 January 1992 January 1993 January 1994 January 1995 January 1996 January 1997 January 1998 January 1999 January 2 January 21 January 22 January 23 January 24 January A. F. Alhajji. July 24 15

16 Oil Prices ($) Vs Rig Count in Europe Rigs Europe Rig Count Oil Price 3 4 $/B January 1976 January 1977 January 1978 January 1979 January 198 January 1981 January 1982 January 1983 January 1984 January 1985 January 1986 January 1987 January 1988 January 1989 January 199 January 1991 January 1992 January 1993 January 1994 January 1995 January 1996 January 1997 January 1998 January 1999 January 2 January 21 January 22 January 23 January 24 January A. F. Alhajji. July 24 16

17 Oil Prices ( ) Vs. # of Rigs in Europe Rigs Europe Rig Count Oil Price ( ) 3 3 /b January 1976 January 1977 January 1978 January 1979 January 198 January 1981 January 1982 January 1983 January 1984 January 1985 January 1986 January 1987 January 1988 January 1989 January 199 January 1991 January 1992 January 1993 January 1994 January 1995 January 1996 January 1997 January 1998 January 1999 January 2 January 21 January 22 January 23 January 24 January A. F. Alhajji. July 24 17

18 Oil Consumption in the UK Depreciation of the dollar increased consumption in recent months. Consumption declined sharply in the fourth quarter of 2 when the dollar appreciated relative to the Sterling and the Euro. Dollar devaluation has little impact on other European countries because of high taxes on petroleum products. See the following Figure. A. F. Alhajji. July 24 18

19 Oil Prices and Petroleum Consumption in the UK Price 4. WTI ($) Brent ( ) UK January 2 January 21 January 22 January 23 January 24 January 14. A. F. Alhajji. July 24 19

20 The Impact on Oil Producing Countries Dollar Devaluation: Causes inflation Reduces purchasing power Increases cost of operations if spare parts are imported from Europe and Japan This would reduce upstream investment. It will apply to US oil companies operating in OPEC. See next 14 figures on the relationship between dollar devaluation and inflation in the oil producing countries A. F. Alhajji. July 24 2

21 Inflation and Oil Prices (Saudi Arabia) $ Index Dollar Index Inflation in SA % 12 Gulf War A. F. Alhajji. July 24 21

22 Inflation and Oil Prices (Oman) $ Index Dollar Index Inflation In Oman % 12 Gulf War A. F. Alhajji. July 24 22

23 As the dollar increases, inflation decreases: Saudi Arabia % Inflation and Dollar SA $ A. F. Alhajji. July 24 23

24 Oman % Inflation and Dollar Oman A. F. Alhajji. July 24 24

25 Qatar % Inflation and Dollar Qatar A. F. Alhajji. July 24 25

26 UAE % Inflation Dollar UAE A. F. Alhajji. July 24 26

27 Bahrain Inflation Dollar Bahrain A. F. Alhajji. July 24 27

28 Algeria Inflation Alg A. F. Alhajji. July 24 28

29 Iran Inflation and Dollar Iran A. F. Alhajji. July 24 29

30 Nigeria Inflation Nigeria A. F. Alhajji. July 24 3

31 Russia Inflation Russia A. F. Alhajji. July 24 31

32 Colombia Inflation Colombia A. F. Alhajji. July 24 32

33 Angola Inflation Angola A. F. Alhajji. July 24 33

34 Observations 1. The exchange rate-inflation effect declines as the percentage of oil exports in total exports declines. 2. The relationship between dollar devaluation and inflation in the oil producing countries does not hold if: The local currency is not pegged to the dollar The economy is diversified The dependence on oil is small Norway, Indonesia, Gabon, and Mexico Out of 18 oil producing countries, only four countries found not have an inverse relationship between the value of the dollar and inflation. A. F. Alhajji. July 24 34

35 Loss of Purchasing Power The Following Figure shows OPEC basket prices (red), prices adjusted for exchange rates (Green), and Prices adjusted for exchange rates and import prices (blue). Losses due to import prices are much larger than losses (some times gains) due to exchange rates. OPEc should address import prices rather than currency exchange rates! A. F. Alhajji. July 24 35

36 Loss of Purchasing Power $/b OPEC Basket Price Adjusted for Exchange Rates Adjusted for Infaltion Jul-9 Jan-91 Jul-91 Jan-92 Jul-92 Jan-93 Jul-93 Jan-94 Jul-94 Jan-95 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan- Jul- Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-2 Jul-2 Jan-3 Jul-3 A. F. Alhajji. July 24 36

37 Loss of Purchasing Power The following two Figures show oil prices after adjusting them for purchasing power (adjusted for import prices and exchange rates) for three OPEC members. The US real price of oil (adjusted for US inflation) is added for comparison. OPEC members have different trading partners. Therefore, the effect of dollar devaluation differ from one country to another. A. F. Alhajji. July 24 37

38 Purchasing Power Oil Prices 18 Indonesia Venezuela UAE US A. F. Alhajji. July 24 38

39 Real Oil Prices (constatnt 197) Saudi Arabia UAE Kuwait Libya Indonesia Venezuela USA A. F. Alhajji. July 24 39

40 Results Dollar depreciation reduces activities in upstream through different channels including lower return on investment, increasing cost, inflation, and purchasing power Dollar devaluation increases demand in countries with appreciated currencies because of increase in purchasing power. Dollar devaluation increases demand in the US as tourists prefer to spend their vacations in the US. A. F. Alhajji. July 24 4

41 Results Studies that focus on demand elasticities must use oil prices denominated in national currencies, not in US dollars. Studies that focus on the relationship between energy prices and economic growth must use oil prices denominated in national currencies, not in US dollars. Exchange rates may explain several issues in international energy markets that researchers are not able to sort out or agree on. A. F. Alhajji. July 24 41

THE WORLD OIL MARKET. Mohan G. Francis

THE WORLD OIL MARKET. Mohan G. Francis THE WORLD OIL MARKET Mohan G. Francis With the Bush administration busily moving military forces to the Gulf region, the sense of an impending war has begun to make an impact on the world petroleum markets.

More information

The shale revolution - impact on the global oil and gas market

The shale revolution - impact on the global oil and gas market The shale revolution - impact on the global oil and gas market Thina Margrethe Saltvedt, Senior Analyst, Macro/Oil March 2013 @ThinaSaltvedt Brief intro to the oil market Drivers of the oil price Short-term

More information

Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply

Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply November 6, 215 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson 48-664-1333 djohnson@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the

More information

Oil Markets Update- October 2015

Oil Markets Update- October 2015 SICO Research November 23, - October Crude prices remain low in October led by oversupply and weak economic indicators October has been a volatile month for crude prices; Brent reached USD 53.05/bbl in

More information

Jean-Yves Garnier Independent Consultant

Jean-Yves Garnier Independent Consultant Jean-Yves Garnier Independent Consultant JODI is much more than a database The JODI Databases Cooperation Harmonisation between organisations Image Coverage Cooperation between Countries and Organisations

More information

A different view to fiscal break-even oil prices

A different view to fiscal break-even oil prices A different view to fiscal break-even oil prices YANAGISAWA Akira Senior Economist Energy Demand, Supply and Forecast Group Energy Data and Modelling Center Summary Higher oil price level is one of the

More information

INTRODUCTION. Production / Extraction of Oil. Distribution & Sale to refined products to end users

INTRODUCTION. Production / Extraction of Oil. Distribution & Sale to refined products to end users CRUDE OIL INTRODUCTION Crude oil holds prominence as input to the global growth engine since it is the most important source of energy accounting for more than two fifth of the global energy consumption.

More information

The Origins of the Global Oil Price Collapse and Potential Investment Opportunities

The Origins of the Global Oil Price Collapse and Potential Investment Opportunities The Origins of the Global Oil Price Collapse and Potential Investment Opportunities Arthur E. Berman, Petroleum Geologist Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. Houston, Texas February 25, 2016 Slide 1 The

More information

OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin

OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin 2015 OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 2015 OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries th 50 EDITIO N Team for

More information

Recession and Employment in the Gulf

Recession and Employment in the Gulf Recession and Employment in the Gulf Saudi Arabia Kuwait Qatar Oman Bahrain UAE RESEARCH 2009 Introduction This research study is intended to provide an overview of key employment and recruitment trends

More information

Energy Prices. Presented by: John Heffernan

Energy Prices. Presented by: John Heffernan Global Wholesale Energy Prices Presented by: John Heffernan Energy in 2012 In 2012, the growth in Energy consumption slowed in 2012 90% of this growth came from China & India Consumption & production of

More information

Oil Price and Korean Economy

Oil Price and Korean Economy Oil Price and Korean Economy April 17, 2015 Jaerang Lee - Contents - I. Oil Price Outlook II. Effects on Korean Economy III. Conclusion I. Oil Price Outlook Oil prices have lowered to around mid 50 dollars

More information

A Survey on Pricing of Asian Marker Crude Oil and Formation of Appropriate Market Prices 1

A Survey on Pricing of Asian Marker Crude Oil and Formation of Appropriate Market Prices 1 A Survey on Pricing of Asian Marker Crude Oil and Formation of Appropriate Market Prices 1 Yasuhiko Nagata, Senior Economist, Oil and Gas Strategy Group, Strategy and Industry Research Unit Sanae Kurita,

More information

Effects of the falling oil price on the global economy

Effects of the falling oil price on the global economy Effects of the falling oil price on the global economy MONETARY POLICY REPORT FEBRUARY 2015 45 Prices on the world market for oil have fallen rapidly since the summer of 2014. Measured in US dollars, the

More information

A Snapshot of World Oil Demand and Oil Supply Evolution

A Snapshot of World Oil Demand and Oil Supply Evolution A Snapshot of World Oil Demand and Oil Supply Evolution Huei-Chu Liao and Yun Chi Chen Department of Economics, TamKang University, rubyliao@mail.tku.edu.tw Shu-Chuan Lin Department of Natural Resource

More information

Rush hour in Kolkata (formerly Calcutta), India. Between 1990 and 2000, the number of motor vehicles per capita more than doubled in four

Rush hour in Kolkata (formerly Calcutta), India. Between 1990 and 2000, the number of motor vehicles per capita more than doubled in four Rush hour in Kolkata (formerly Calcutta), India. Between 1990 and 2000, the number of motor vehicles per capita more than doubled in four Asia-Pacific nations: South Korea, the Philippines, India, and

More information

Oil Markets into 2006. Peter Davies Chief Economist, BP plc British Institute of Energy Economics London. 24 January, 2006

Oil Markets into 2006. Peter Davies Chief Economist, BP plc British Institute of Energy Economics London. 24 January, 2006 Oil Markets into 26 Peter Davies Chief Economist, BP plc British Institute of Energy Economics London. 24 January, 26 Outline Oil and energy today How did we get to here? Prospects for 26 Into the medium

More information

STEO Supplement: Why are oil prices so high?

STEO Supplement: Why are oil prices so high? STEO Supplement: Why are oil prices so high? During most of the 1990s, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price averaged close to $20 per barrel, before plunging to almost $10 per barrel in late

More information

Standard Note: SN/SG/2106 Last updated: 28 January 2014 Author: Paul Bolton Section Social & General Statistics

Standard Note: SN/SG/2106 Last updated: 28 January 2014 Author: Paul Bolton Section Social & General Statistics Oil prices Standard Note: SN/SG/216 Last updated: 28 January 214 Author: Paul Bolton Section Social & General Statistics Oil prices peaked at almost $15 Dollars a barrel in July 28 and fell sharply in

More information

A view of the international economy of the future, in the context of crude oil price surges and continued high price levels

A view of the international economy of the future, in the context of crude oil price surges and continued high price levels Section 3 A view of the international economy of the future, in the context of crude oil price surges and continued high price levels In this section, we will analyze the factors and effects of increasing

More information

Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. artberman.com 1

Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. artberman.com 1 Returning To Market Balance: How High Must Prices Be To Save The Oil Industry? Art Berman Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. Ray Leonard Hyperdynamics Lafayette Geological Society Lafayette, Louisiana

More information

EIA s U.S. Crude Oil Import Tracking Tool: Selected Sample Applications

EIA s U.S. Crude Oil Import Tracking Tool: Selected Sample Applications EIA s U.S. Crude Oil Import Tracking Tool: Selected Sample Applications November 2014 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 This report was prepared

More information

GCC in times of cheap oil: an opportunity for economic reform and diversification

GCC in times of cheap oil: an opportunity for economic reform and diversification GCC in times of cheap oil: an opportunity for economic reform and diversification Kevin Körner & Oliver Masetti GCC in times of cheap oil: an opportunity for economic reform and diversification, June 215

More information

2015 Oil Outlook. january 21, 2015

2015 Oil Outlook. january 21, 2015 MainStay Investments is pleased to provide the following investment insights from Epoch Investment Partners, Inc., a premier institutional manager and subadvisor to a number of MainStay Investments products.

More information

OPEC & its influence on Price of Oil

OPEC & its influence on Price of Oil ENERGY SECTOR STRUCTURE POLICIES & REGULATIONS OPEC & its influence on Price of Oil Submitted to Prof. Anupam Sircar towards End-Term Assessment AJITH BASIL 14-Jan-11 Organisation of Petroleum Exporting

More information

Europe s Refining Industry under Pressure Medium Term Outlook and Implications for Security of Supply

Europe s Refining Industry under Pressure Medium Term Outlook and Implications for Security of Supply Europe s Refining Industry under Pressure Medium Term Outlook and Implications for Security of Supply Network Oil & Gas Seminar Stockholm, 31 October 2012 Toril Bosoni About the IEA The IEA was established

More information

Oil Market Outlook. March 2016. Compiled by Dr Jeremy Wakeford

Oil Market Outlook. March 2016. Compiled by Dr Jeremy Wakeford Oil Market Outlook March 2016 Compiled by Dr Jeremy Wakeford Highlights Oil prices have remained very weak in recent months, with the Brent benchmark averaging $31/bbl in January and $32/bbl in February

More information

Room XXVI Palais des Nations Geneva, Switzerland. Oil Market Outlook. Eissa B. Alzerma Oil Price Analyst Petroleum Studies Department, OPEC

Room XXVI Palais des Nations Geneva, Switzerland. Oil Market Outlook. Eissa B. Alzerma Oil Price Analyst Petroleum Studies Department, OPEC UNCTAD Multi-Year Expert Meeting on Commodities and Development 2013 Recent developments and new challenges in commodity markets, and policy options for commodity-based inclusive growth and sustainable

More information

TEXT. Rosneft President, Igor Sechin presentation at the International Petroleum (IP) Week in London on 10-11 February 2015

TEXT. Rosneft President, Igor Sechin presentation at the International Petroleum (IP) Week in London on 10-11 February 2015 TEXT Rosneft President, Igor Sechin presentation at the International Petroleum (IP) Week in London on 10-11 February 2015 Greetings ladies and gentlemen We are, no doubt, are in a fairly acute crisis

More information

Conventional Oil and Gas Technologies

Conventional Oil and Gas Technologies Conventional Oil and Gas Technologies HIGHLIGHTS PROCESS AND TECHNOLOGY STATUS Oil and gas technologies include the exploration and development of oil and gas fields, and production processes. Over the

More information

Oil and Gas Prices. Oil and Gas Investor Summit London 17th-18th June 2014

Oil and Gas Prices. Oil and Gas Investor Summit London 17th-18th June 2014 Oil and Gas Prices Oil and Gas Investor Summit London 17th-18th June 2014 Oil Price Drowning in oil Economist, March 1999 $10 oil might actually be too optimistic. We may be heading for $5. Crude touches

More information

GLOBAL DYNAMICS OF OIL PRICE RUCHAN KAYA SENIOR RESARCH FELLOW, ENERGY AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS EXPERT, HASEN

GLOBAL DYNAMICS OF OIL PRICE RUCHAN KAYA SENIOR RESARCH FELLOW, ENERGY AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS EXPERT, HASEN MESUT RUCHAN HAKKI KAYA CASIN 146 GLOBAL DYNAMICS OF OIL PRICE FLUCTUATIONS RUCHAN KAYA SENIOR RESARCH FELLOW, ENERGY AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS EXPERT, HASEN The crude oil saw the lowest price levels

More information

FINANCIAL AID. www.ie.edu/financial-aid

FINANCIAL AID. www.ie.edu/financial-aid FINANCIAL AID www.ie.edu/financial-aid 2 3 WELCOME TO IE The IE Financial Aid office appreciates the opportunity to assist all applicants putting together the best financial plan possible to cover the

More information

The economic and energy scenarios for Latin America & the Caribbean from the perspective of the KPMG

The economic and energy scenarios for Latin America & the Caribbean from the perspective of the KPMG The economic and energy scenarios for Latin America & the Caribbean from the perspective of the KPMG Martiniano Lopes KPMG Partner Latin America Energy and Natural Resource Leader ARPEL Conference - Uruguay

More information

The Global Economic Impacts of Oil Price Shocks

The Global Economic Impacts of Oil Price Shocks The Global Economic Impacts of Oil Price Shocks Presented to: Project LINK, United Nations New York, NY November 22, 2004 Presented by: Sara Johnson Managing Director, Global Macroeconomics Group 781-301-9115

More information

Financing Drivers and Funding Rapid Growth

Financing Drivers and Funding Rapid Growth Financing Drivers and Funding Rapid Growth IDEA International District Cooling Symposium October 2007 Mohamed Elshentenawy Palm District Cooling Mohamed.Shentenawy@dubaiworld.ae Presentation outline GCC

More information

List of tables. I. World Trade Developments

List of tables. I. World Trade Developments List of tables I. World Trade Developments 1. Overview Table I.1 Growth in the volume of world merchandise exports and production, 2010-2014 39 Table I.2 Growth in the volume of world merchandise trade

More information

Mexico in the face of slowing emerging economies. Manuel Sánchez

Mexico in the face of slowing emerging economies. Manuel Sánchez Manuel Sánchez Adam Smith Seminar Central Bank of Hungary, Budapest, November 10, 2015 Contents 1 Soft economic rebound 2 Coping with higher risk aversion 3 Tamed inflation 2 Since 2014, global growth

More information

International Oil Pricing Mechanism and Analysis on Oil Price Fluctuation Reasons

International Oil Pricing Mechanism and Analysis on Oil Price Fluctuation Reasons International Oil Pricing Mechanism and Analysis on Oil Price Fluctuation Reasons By Mr. Wang Nengquan, Chief Economist Sinochem International Oil Company, Sinochem Corporation Hyatt Regency,Hangzhou,

More information

Global Effective Tax Rates

Global Effective Tax Rates www.pwc.com/us/nes Global s Global s April 14, 2011 This document has been prepared pursuant to an engagement between PwC and its Client. As to all other parties, it is for general information purposes

More information

The Gas Market - Overview

The Gas Market - Overview The Gas Market - Overview Dr. Burckhard Bergmann, CEO of Ruhrgas AG and Member of the E.ON Board of Management March 11, 2004 1. Gas Market 2. Ruhrgas Business Model 3. Strategy 2 New Market-Unit (MU)-Structure

More information

1999, compared to the previous year. 2000, compared to the previous year

1999, compared to the previous year. 2000, compared to the previous year Trends in supply and final demand (1) Outline of trends in supply for final demand in this quarter Although government consumption decreased by 0.5% compared to the previous quarter, private consumption

More information

What drives crude oil prices?

What drives crude oil prices? What drives crude oil prices? An analysis of 7 factors that influence oil markets, with chart data updated monthly and quarterly Washington, DC U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics

More information

Group sales 10% Weak SEA currencies accounted for ~3% decrease Global brand sales 4% from improvements in China franchisee performance

Group sales 10% Weak SEA currencies accounted for ~3% decrease Global brand sales 4% from improvements in China franchisee performance 2016 First Quarter Update 4 May 2016 Overview Group sales 1 Weak SEA currencies accounted for ~3% decrease Global brand sales 4% from improvements in China franchisee performance Gross margin 2.5pp; gross

More information

Macroeconomic Influences on U.S. Agricultural Trade

Macroeconomic Influences on U.S. Agricultural Trade Macroeconomic Influences on U.S. Agricultural Trade In addition to the influence of shifting patterns of growth in foreign populations and per capita income, cyclical macroeconomic factors associated with

More information

CHAPTER 15 EXCHANGE-RATE ADJUSTMENTS AND THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS

CHAPTER 15 EXCHANGE-RATE ADJUSTMENTS AND THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS CHAPTER 15 EXCHANGE-RATE ADJUSTMENTS AND THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS MULTIPLE-CHOICE QUESTIONS 1. According to the absorption approach, the economic circumstances that best warrant a currency devaluation is

More information

IMPACT PARAMETERS ON THE VOLATILITY OF THE WORLD OIL PRICE

IMPACT PARAMETERS ON THE VOLATILITY OF THE WORLD OIL PRICE IMPACT PARAMETERS ON THE VOLATILITY OF THE WORLD OIL PRICE Reinhard HAAS, Amela AJANOVIC, Hans AUER, Lukas KRANZL, Andreas MÜLLER, Gustav RESCH, Christian REDL, Lukas WEISSENSTEINER Institut für Elektrische

More information

Outlook for Oil and Natural Gas Markets

Outlook for Oil and Natural Gas Markets Outlook for Oil and Natural Gas Markets Helen Currie, PhD Senior Economist Legislative Finance Committee State of New Mexico 09-July-2014 Farmington, New Mexico Cautionary Statement The following presentation

More information

Global Media Report. Global Industry Overview

Global Media Report. Global Industry Overview Global Media Report 203 Global Industry Overview McKinsey & Company Global Media Report 203 McKinsey & Company s Global Media and Entertainment Practice Never before has an integrated view across the media

More information

The Energy Data Centre of the IEA: its role and interactions with national institutions

The Energy Data Centre of the IEA: its role and interactions with national institutions The Energy Data Centre of the IEA: its role and interactions with national institutions INOGATE Meeting, Copenhagen, April 23-24, 2013 Pierre Boileau, Section Head, Non-OECD Country Energy Statistics Overview

More information

Physical Market Conditions, Paper Market Activity and the WTI-Brent Spread. Discussion by: Lutz Kilian University of Michigan

Physical Market Conditions, Paper Market Activity and the WTI-Brent Spread. Discussion by: Lutz Kilian University of Michigan Physical Market Conditions, Paper Market Activity and the WTI-Brent Spread Discussion by: Lutz Kilian University of Michigan Crude Oil is Not Perfectly Homogeneous Differences in: - Composition - Location

More information

Box 6 International Oil Prices: 2002-03

Box 6 International Oil Prices: 2002-03 Annual Report 2002-03 International Oil Prices: 2002-03 Box 6 International Oil Prices: 2002-03 Notwithstanding the state of the world economy, characterised by sluggish growth in 2002, the world crude

More information

Middle East. Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates

Middle East. Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates S o l u t i o n s S u m m a r y Middle East Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates ahrain Consultants will be employed by Mauve Technology International in Bahrain. There are no taxes

More information

Air connectivity opportunities in 2016 and beyond 38 th Annual Hotel Conference

Air connectivity opportunities in 2016 and beyond 38 th Annual Hotel Conference REPUBLIC OF CYPRUS Ministry of Transport, Communications and Works. 2 nd of February 2016 Air connectivity opportunities in 2016 and beyond 38 th Annual Hotel Conference Airport traffic in 2015 at record

More information

Nader Habibi October 2010 Crown Center for Middle East Studies and Department of Economics Brandeis University 781 736 5325 nhabibi@brandeis.

Nader Habibi October 2010 Crown Center for Middle East Studies and Department of Economics Brandeis University 781 736 5325 nhabibi@brandeis. Import Demand Behavior of Arab Countries: Recent Trends and Influence of Geopolitical Events Nader Habibi October 2010 Crown Center for Middle East Studies and Department of Economics Brandeis University

More information

Yara International ASA Third Quarter results 2012

Yara International ASA Third Quarter results 2012 Yara International ASA Third Quarter results 212 19 October 212 1 Summary third quarter Strong results and cash flow Yara-produced NPK deliveries up 1% Strong production increase Cautious start to European

More information

Falling Oil Prices and US Economic Activity: Implications for the Future

Falling Oil Prices and US Economic Activity: Implications for the Future Date Issue Brief # I S S U E B R I E F Falling Oil Prices and US Economic Activity: Implications for the Future Stephen P.A. Brown December 2014 Issue Brief 14-06 Resources for the Future Resources for

More information

Der europäische Energiemarkt im Einfluss globaler Entwicklungen Auswirkungen unkoordinierter, regionaler Energiestrategien

Der europäische Energiemarkt im Einfluss globaler Entwicklungen Auswirkungen unkoordinierter, regionaler Energiestrategien Der europäische Energiemarkt im Einfluss globaler Entwicklungen Auswirkungen unkoordinierter, regionaler Energiestrategien DI Dr.techn. Christian Panzer Wien Energie Unternehmensentwicklung Web: http://wienenergie.at

More information

FALL 2011 INTERNATIONAL STUDENT ENROLLMENT SURVEY

FALL 2011 INTERNATIONAL STUDENT ENROLLMENT SURVEY FALL 2011 INTERNATIONAL STUDENT ENROLLMENT SURVEY November 2011 The survey, which reports on enrollment trends for international students at U.S. colleges and universities, was conducted among members

More information

Agenda. Exchange Rates, Business Cycles, and Macroeconomic Policy in the Open Economy, Part 1. Exchange Rates. Exchange Rates.

Agenda. Exchange Rates, Business Cycles, and Macroeconomic Policy in the Open Economy, Part 1. Exchange Rates. Exchange Rates. Agenda, Business Cycles, and Macroeconomic Policy in the Open Economy, Part 1 How Are Determined A Supply-and-Demand Analysis 19-1 19-2 Nominal exchange rates: The nominal exchange rate indicates how much

More information

Recent Oil-Market Developments: Causes and Implications

Recent Oil-Market Developments: Causes and Implications Recent Oil-Market Developments: Causes and Implications Statement of Professor Robert J. Weiner Professor of International Business, Public Policy & Public Administration, and International Affairs, George

More information

Why clean transportation alternatives are still needed to promote world-wide economic growth (the Oil Problem is not going away)

Why clean transportation alternatives are still needed to promote world-wide economic growth (the Oil Problem is not going away) Why clean transportation alternatives are still needed to promote world-wide economic growth (the Oil Problem is not going away) Carmine Difiglio, Ph.D. U.S. Department of Energy Transportation Research

More information

BIS CEMLA Roundtable on Fiscal Policy, public debt management and government bond markets: issues for central banks

BIS CEMLA Roundtable on Fiscal Policy, public debt management and government bond markets: issues for central banks BIS CEMLA Roundtable on Fiscal Policy, public debt management and government bond markets: issues for central banks Is monetary policy constrained by fiscal policy? by Carlos Montoro 26-27 November 212

More information

LATIN AMERICA: Oil prices complicate outlook

LATIN AMERICA: Oil prices complicate outlook 1 of 5 12/13/2015 12:06 PM Back to previous page document 1 of 1 LATIN AMERICA: Oil prices complicate outlook OxResearch Daily Brief Service. (Jan 21, 2015). Find a copy http://sfxhosted.exlibrisgroup.com/nps?url_ver=z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:book&

More information

The lower energy and feedstock prices overall have the following effects:

The lower energy and feedstock prices overall have the following effects: Impact of lower oil price on the European Chemical Industry Executive summary Oil prices have seen a rapid drop over the past six months with the price per barrel sinking to its lowest point since 2009.

More information

The effects of the recent oil price shock on the U.S. and global economy 1. Nouriel Roubini Stern School of Business, NYU. and

The effects of the recent oil price shock on the U.S. and global economy 1. Nouriel Roubini Stern School of Business, NYU. and The effects of the recent oil price shock on the U.S. and global economy 1 Nouriel Roubini Stern School of Business, NYU and Brad Setser Research Associate, Global Economic Governance Programme, University

More information

Yara International ASA Fourth quarter results 2011. 7 February 2012

Yara International ASA Fourth quarter results 2011. 7 February 2012 Yara International ASA Fourth quarter results 211 7 February 212 1 Summary fourth quarter Strong quarter and best full-year results so far Good farm profitability drove improved margins, more than offsetting

More information

Triple-play subscriptions to rocket to 400 mil.

Triple-play subscriptions to rocket to 400 mil. Triple-play criptions to rocket to 400 mil. Global triple-play criptions will reach 400 million by 2017; up by nearly 300 million on the end-2011 total and up by 380 million on the 2007 total, according

More information

many in the producing and investment community off guard and caused dramatic changes in producer behavior and balance sheets.

many in the producing and investment community off guard and caused dramatic changes in producer behavior and balance sheets. Testimony of Suzanne Minter Manager, Oil and Gas Consulting Platts Analytics before the U.S. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee Hearing to examine challenges and opportunities for oil and gas

More information

Why the Benefits of Cheaper Oil Outweigh the Drawbacks

Why the Benefits of Cheaper Oil Outweigh the Drawbacks Why the Benefits of Cheaper Oil Outweigh the Drawbacks By David Leduc, CFA Ben Li, CFA Andrew Fahey, CFA Thomas Higgins, PhD Standish Mellon Asset Management Company LLC World oil prices have plummeted

More information

Financial Information

Financial Information Financial Information Solid results with in all key financial metrics of 23.6 bn, up 0.4% like-for like Adjusted EBITA margin up 0.3 pt on organic basis Net profit up +4% to 1.9 bn Record Free Cash Flow

More information

TMK ANNOUNCES 4Q 2012 AND FULL-YEAR 2012 IFRS RESULTS

TMK ANNOUNCES 4Q 2012 AND FULL-YEAR 2012 IFRS RESULTS TMK ANNOUNCES 4Q AND FULL-YEAR IFRS RESULTS The following contains forward looking statements concerning future events. These statements are based on current information and assumptions of TMK management

More information

Consolidated International Banking Statistics in Japan

Consolidated International Banking Statistics in Japan Total (Transfer Consolidated cross-border claims in all currencies and local claims in non-local currencies Up to and including one year Maturities Over one year up to two years Over two years Public Sector

More information

Dividends Tax: Summary of withholding tax rates per South African Double Taxation Agreements currently in force Version: 2 Updated: 2012-05-22

Dividends Tax: Summary of withholding tax rates per South African Double Taxation Agreements currently in force Version: 2 Updated: 2012-05-22 Dividends Tax: Summary of withholding tax rates per South African Double Taxation Agreements currently in force Version: 2 Updated: 2012-05-22 Note: A summary of the rates and the relevant provisions relating

More information

X. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/

X. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/ 1/ X. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/ 10.1 Overview of World Economy Latest indicators are increasingly suggesting that the significant contraction in economic activity has come to an end, notably

More information

Upward Trend in Crude Oil Prices since 1973

Upward Trend in Crude Oil Prices since 1973 Economic Insights Trends and Challenges Vol.III (LXVI) No. 4/2014 89-96 The Collapse of Crude Oil Prices: Cyclical Evolution or Market Manipulation? Haidar Ali Mohammed Al Dulaimi Lecturer, Ph.D., University

More information

Understanding World Currencies and Exchange Rates

Understanding World Currencies and Exchange Rates Understanding World Currencies and Exchange Rates Contents Currencies Exchange Rates Exchange Rate Movements Interpreting Numerical Exchange Rate Movements How Foreign Exchange Markets Work Why Exchange

More information

GCC Pharmaceutical Industry

GCC Pharmaceutical Industry GCC Pharmaceutical Industry First coordination meeting for the pharmaceutical industry in the GCC and Yemen Dr. Aasim Qureshi 11 April 2011 Global Pharmaceuticals Industry The pharmaceutical industry is

More information

Impact of the International Financial Crisis on MENA Capital Markets

Impact of the International Financial Crisis on MENA Capital Markets Impact of the International Financial Crisis on MENA Capital Markets Forum on the Current International Financial Crisis: Implications and Lessons for Arab Region Beirut, Lebanon December 2-3, 2008 Auguste

More information

The Impact of Oil Prices on the Canadian Economy. Policy Brief. The Canadian Chamber is committed to fostering. Introduction

The Impact of Oil Prices on the Canadian Economy. Policy Brief. The Canadian Chamber is committed to fostering. Introduction The Impact of Oil Prices on the Canadian Economy Introduction Policy Brief Economic Policy Series June 2011 Who would have thought that the desperate act of one fruit vendor in a small village in Tunisia

More information

2012 Global Agency Compensation Survey. R3:JLB May 9, 2012

2012 Global Agency Compensation Survey. R3:JLB May 9, 2012 2012 Global Agency Compensation Survey R3:JLB May 9, 2012 Survey Method Online Survey fielded Feb, March 2012 Survey completed April 2012 71 ANA member responses, representing 60 different global companies

More information

A Region by Any Other Name...

A Region by Any Other Name... A Region by Any Other Name.... Janet Hall Bethany Public Schools, Bethany, Oklahoma jhall@bps.k12.ok.us OVERVIEW: It is often true that a place may be categorized as belonging to more than one region,

More information

Special Drawing Rights A Way out of Global Imbalances?

Special Drawing Rights A Way out of Global Imbalances? Special Drawing Rights A Way out of Global Imbalances? Stefan Bender Special Drawing Rights Definition Special Drawing Rights (SDR) are the monetary unit of the reserve assets of the International Monetary

More information

RECENT TRADE DEVELOPMENTS AND SELECTED TRENDS IN TRADE

RECENT TRADE DEVELOPMENTS AND SELECTED TRENDS IN TRADE I A RECENT TRADE DEVELOPMENTS AND SELECTED TRENDS IN TRADE RECENT TRENDS IN INTERNATIONAL TRADE 1. INTRODUCTION: THESTATEOFTHEWORLDECONOMYANDTRADE IN 2006 The year 2006 witnessed robust growth in the world

More information

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY KEY WORLD ENERGY STATISTICS

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY KEY WORLD ENERGY STATISTICS INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY KEY WORLD ENERGY STATISTICS 2003 S T KEY WORLD ENERGY STATISTICS A T I S T I C S IEA participating countries are 2 Australia Austria Belgium Canada Czech Republic Denmark Finland

More information

BEATING THE HIRING CYCLE OIL AND GAS COMPANIES NEED TO REDESIGN THEIR HUMAN RESOURCES PROCESSES. Bill Heath Robert Peterson Susie Scott

BEATING THE HIRING CYCLE OIL AND GAS COMPANIES NEED TO REDESIGN THEIR HUMAN RESOURCES PROCESSES. Bill Heath Robert Peterson Susie Scott BEATING THE HIRING CYCLE OIL AND GAS COMPANIES NEED TO REDESIGN THEIR HUMAN RESOURCES PROCESSES Bill Heath Robert Peterson Susie Scott In the past 12 months, oil and gas companies have been forced to do

More information

International Gas Union. Wholesale Gas Price Survey - 2015 Edition. News, views and knowledge on gas worldwide

International Gas Union. Wholesale Gas Price Survey - 2015 Edition. News, views and knowledge on gas worldwide IGU - WHOLESAFE GAS PRICE FORMATION 2014 International Gas Union International Gas Union News, views and knowledge on gas worldwide Wholesale Gas Price Survey - 2015 Edition 090054-2015, Photo: Eiliv Leren,

More information

Mineral Industry Surveys

Mineral Industry Surveys 4 Mineral Industry Surveys For information contact: Robert L. Virta, Asbestos Commodity Specialist U.S. Geological Survey 989 National Center Reston, VA 20192 Telephone: 703-648-7726, Fax: (703) 648-7757

More information

Yara International ASA Second quarter results 2014

Yara International ASA Second quarter results 2014 Yara International ASA Second quarter results 214 18 July 214 1 Summary second quarter Strong result Lower nitrate deliveries amid early end to season in Europe Continued strong NPK deliveries and value-added

More information

Crude Oil Prices after the OPEC Meeting

Crude Oil Prices after the OPEC Meeting 361st Regular Meeting for Briefing Research Report April 12, 2000 Crude Oil Prices after the OPEC Meeting Ken Koyama, Group Manager International Trend Analysis Group The Institute of Energy Economics,

More information

Tactics and Strategies for Improving and Sustaining Quality in the Middle East

Tactics and Strategies for Improving and Sustaining Quality in the Middle East Tactics and Strategies for Improving and Sustaining Quality in the Middle East Jane Azurin Acting Education Consul Middle East July Sept 2008 Overview Synopsis of the Middle East (ME) Quality Students

More information

BP s response to lower oil prices

BP s response to lower oil prices BP s response to lower oil prices bp.com/investors The industry is going into a very challenging phase as we reset to a lower price environment but our business model is a very focused one and we are in

More information

Investing in frontier markets with a high dividend strategy: the best of both worlds

Investing in frontier markets with a high dividend strategy: the best of both worlds Investing in frontier markets with a high dividend strategy: the best of both worlds In 1996 the World Bank-related International Finance Corporation introduced the term Frontier Markets. tend to be low-income

More information

Global Education Office University of New Mexico MSC06 3850, Mesa Vista Hall, Rm. 2120 Tel. 505 277 4032, Fax 505 277 1867, geo@unm.

Global Education Office University of New Mexico MSC06 3850, Mesa Vista Hall, Rm. 2120 Tel. 505 277 4032, Fax 505 277 1867, geo@unm. Global Education Office University of New Mexico MSC06 3850, Mesa Vista Hall, Rm. 220 Tel. 505 277 4032, Fax 505 277 867, geo@unm.edu Report on International Students, Scholars and Study Abroad Programs

More information

2015 Growth in data center employment continues but the workforce is changing

2015 Growth in data center employment continues but the workforce is changing Published in Conjunction with MARKET BRIEFING GLOBAL DATA CENTER EMPLOYMENT 2015 2015 Growth in data center employment continues but the workforce is changing Globally, the number of people working in

More information

Changes in Supply of and Demand for Crude Oil: Implications for Oil Price

Changes in Supply of and Demand for Crude Oil: Implications for Oil Price Changes in Supply of and Demand for Crude Oil: Implications for Oil Price 1 Paul R. Kutasovic Economic Consultant and Professor, New York Abstract The rise in oil prices since the end of the 2007-09 recession

More information

chapter: Oligopoly Krugman/Wells Economics 2009 Worth Publishers 1 of 35

chapter: Oligopoly Krugman/Wells Economics 2009 Worth Publishers 1 of 35 chapter: 15 >> Oligopoly Krugman/Wells Economics 2009 Worth Publishers 1 of 35 WHAT YOU WILL LEARN IN THIS CHAPTER The meaning of oligopoly, and why it occurs Why oligopolists have an incentive to act

More information

PETROLEUM WATCH September 16, 2011 Fossil Fuels Office Fuels and Transportation Division California Energy Commission

PETROLEUM WATCH September 16, 2011 Fossil Fuels Office Fuels and Transportation Division California Energy Commission PETROLEUM WATCH September 16, 2011 Fossil Fuels Office Fuels and Transportation Division California Energy Commission Summary As of September 14, retail regular-grade gasoline prices in California increased

More information

An Overview of Islamic Finance

An Overview of Islamic Finance An Overview of Islamic Finance February 2008 Hung Wai Wong Senior Manager Commercial Banking, HSBC Bank Middle East Ltd. Size of Islamic Banking The first modern experiment with Islamic Banking was undertaken

More information

MAUVE GROUP GLOBAL EMPLOYMENT SOLUTIONS PORTFOLIO

MAUVE GROUP GLOBAL EMPLOYMENT SOLUTIONS PORTFOLIO MAUVE GROUP GLOBAL SOLUTIONS PORTFOLIO At Mauve Group, we offer a variety of complete employee management services such as Global Employment Solutions (GES), Professional Employment Outsourcing (PEO),

More information