Markit PMI / 2. Markit PMI TM

Transcription

1 PMI

2 Markit PMI PMI overview 3 Why take part? 4 Survey methodology 5 Survey coverage 6 Testimonials 7 Interpreting PMI data 8 The boom-bust cycle 8 Output, new orders and backlogs 9 New orders and purchasing 10 Purchasing and supply 10 Supply and input prices 11 Input prices and output 12 Input prices and output prices 12 Output and inventories 13 Output and employment 14 Detailed sector PMI reports 14 Further information and how to join 15 About Markit 15 / 2

3 PMI Overview Purchasing Managers Index (PMI ) surveys have been developed in many countries to provide purchasing professionals, business decision-makers and economic analysts with an accurate and timely set of data to help better understand industry conditions. PMI data are based on monthly surveys of carefully selected companies. These provide an advance indication of what is really happening in the private sector economy by tracking variables such as output, new orders, stock levels, employment and prices across the manufacturing, construction, retail and service sectors. The PMI surveys are based on fact, not opinion, and are among the first indicators of economic conditions published each month. The data are collected using identical methods in all countries so that international comparisons may be made. The surveys achieve considerable press coverage on a regular basis and are widely used by purchasing professionals in the manufacturing sector, by senior management across the corporate sector and by economic analysts in financial institutions. In particular, central banks in many key economies use the data to help guide interest rate decisions. Survey participants have FREE ACCESS to this valuable economic information, which aids business planning and supplier negotiations. PMI surveys Highly-regarded economic indicators Quick and easy to take part Easy to interpret Relevant to industry professionals Enable understanding of current business trends Conducted in over 30 countries / 3

4 Markit PMI TM Why take part? PMI surveys provide participants with a FREE source of credible, highly-regarded business intelligence. The timely information available to participants helps them to better understand underlying economic conditions and identify turning points in the economic cycle. This enables improved business planning and purchasing strategy. Relevance PMI survey data cover tangible economic themes such as output, new orders, exports, employment, warehouse stocks, supplier performance and price trends. So participants find the data relevant to their business operations. International Survey participants have free access to a comprehensive online library of monthly economic reports, covering 30 countries. Easy to use While PMI data are widely used by economists in financial institutions, the survey figures are designed to be easily interpreted by the wider press and industry professionals who participate in the surveys. Speed The PMI surveys are based around a limited number of questions that are quick and easy to answer. Survey participants can complete the survey in a few minutes via a dedicated website. Timely PMI surveys are among the first economic indicators published every month. Survey participants have access to the latest findings as soon as they are published. Credible PMI surveys are closely watched by global financial markets and receive considerable press coverage. Therefore survey participants can be confident that the survey results are authoritative. The PMI was the first indicator to signal the steep downturn in eurozone GDP during the global financial crisis in late- 2008, the recession during the euro debt crisis in and the recent economic recovery in Eurozone PMI Output Index Eurozone GDP qr/qr% Sources: Markit, Eurostat / 4

5 Survey methodology Each country PMI survey for the manufacturing or service sector is based on questionnaire responses from panels of senior purchasing executives (or similar) in over 400 companies. The survey panel is carefully recruited to accurately represent the true structure of that sector. Questionnaires are completed in the second half of each month and the survey results are then processed by Markit s economists. Respondents are asked to state whether business conditions for a number of variables have improved, deteriorated or stayed the same compared with the previous month. Reasons for any changes are also requested from respondents. Diffusion indexes are calculated for each variable. These indexes vary between 0 and 100 with levels of 50.0 signalling no change on the previous month. Readings above 50.0 signal an improvement or increase on the previous month. Readings below 50.0 signal a deterioration or decrease on the previous month. The greater the divergence from 50.0 the greater the rate of change signalled. The questionnaire covers the following economic variables Manufacturing Services Construction Whole Economy Output Business Activity Total Activity Output New Orders New Business Residential Activity New Orders New Export Orders Backlogs of Work Commercial Activity New Export Orders Backlogs of Work Output Prices Input Prices Suppliers Delivery Times Stocks of Finished Goods Quantity of Purchases Stocks of Purchases Employment Prices Charged Input Prices Employment Expectations for Activity Civil Engineering Activity New Orders Employment Quantity of Purchases Suppliers Delivery Times Input Prices Sub-contractor Usage Sub-contractor Availability Backlogs of Work Output Prices Overall Input Prices Purchase Prices Staff Costs Suppliers Delivery Times Quantity of Purchases Stocks of Purchases Employment Sub-contractor Rates Sub-contractor Quality Future Activity / 5

6 Survey coverage Manufacturing PMI Global Eurozone Austria Brazil Canada China Colombia** Czech Republic France Germany Greece India Indonesia Ireland Italy Japan Malaysia Mexico Netherlands Poland Russia South Korea Spain Taiwan Turkey United Kingdom United States Vietnam **under construction Construction PMI Eurozone France Germany Ireland Italy United Kingdom Whole Economy PMI Egypt* Hong Kong Kenya Lebanon United Arab Emirates* Saudi Arabia* Singapore South Africa *Non-oil sector Other Reports Asia Sector PMI Dubai Economy Tracker Dubai Real Estate Tracker English Regional Jobs Europe Sector PMI Eurozone Retail PMI France Retail PMI Germany Retail PMI Global Business Outlook Global Electronics PMI Global Metals PMI Global Sector PMI Italy Retail PMI Productivity PMI UK Commercial Property UK Household Finance UK Jobs UK Marketing Budgets UK Regional PMI Scotland Jobs Services PMI Global Eurozone Brazil China France Germany India Japan Ireland Italy Russia Spain United Kingdom United States / 6

7 Testimonials I use the data to see the trends of manufacturing and commodities, and... to help build our procurement strategy going forward. Vice President Global Procurement, Hull The PMI is a most useful barometer measure which allows trends and developments to be communicated to both purchasing staff, and also senior management within the company to assist our business strategies. Purchasing Manager, Dudley These data are used every month in an economic update to our factories and product companies. The data are very useful in monitoring the actual market position and development and is used extensively in planning. Managing Director, Hemel Hempstead The monthly report is invaluable to us. Because it reflects the real world rather than that of the statisticians, it enables us to measure our performance against a reliable benchmark. We have not found anything better. UK Services PMI member since 1996 The data have proved to be a remarkably good indicator of what is around the corner. UK Services PMI member since 2005 I review the data monthly for use in supplier negotiations and management reports to the Board. Purchasing Manager, Plymouth / 7

8 Interpreting PMI survey data The boom-bust cycle It helps to first consider a typical, albeit extremely simplified, pattern of events in a classic boom-bust business cycle. During a period of economic expansion it is typical for employment to rise (and unemployment to fall) and the demand for raw materials to increase. If employment and demand for raw materials rise at suitably fast rates it is then common for skill shortages and supply-chain bottlenecks to develop. When demand exceeds supply, prices tend to rise. Wages and salaries and raw material prices will therefore begin to increase. Retail price inflation may then pick up as higher costs are passed on to the consumer. The standard economic policy prescription for rising high street inflation is an increase in central bank base rates which, by raising borrowing costs to business and the consumer, restrains demand. Prices and economic growth then tend to grow at slower rates. When demand has slowed sufficiently, interest rates may be lowered again, thus stimulating economic growth. Diagram 1: Boom-Bust Cycle Interest rates fall Economic growth stimulated Economic growth slows Increased employment and demand for raw materials Interest rates rise Skill shortages and supply problems develop Inflation picks up as higher costs are passed to customers Staff wages and raw material prices rise The PMI surveys provide time-series variables relevant to a number of important stages in the cycle, allowing analysts to ascertain the pace of economic growth, to see whether demand and supply imbalances are taking hold, and to see if prices are consequently rising. Several of the indicators are directly comparable for both manufacturing and services. For example, business activity in services is the direct equivalent of manufacturing output and incoming new business for the service sector is the direct equivalent of manufacturing new orders. Many of these variables will of course be of importance not just to economic policy makers but also to those monitoring corporate performance and profitability. The behaviour of the variables is analysed on the following pages, with examples given for the Eurozone manufacturing sector. / 8

9 Output, new orders and backlogs Changes in new orders generally drive growth of economic output. PMI data can also help identify deviations in this relationship, such as leads and lags. These often occur due to delays in the adjustment of production to demand, especially in the manufacturing sector. In the service sector, output is measured by business activity and new orders are measured through changes in incoming new business. Chart 1: Eurozone Manufacturing Backlogs of work/business outstanding vary according to the amount of new orders/incoming new business received by manufacturing/service sector companies. When new orders/incoming new business rises, supply imbalances can develop and backlogs of work/business outstanding accumulates. Chart 2: Eurozone Manufacturing / 9

10 New orders & purchasing The amount of goods bought by manufacturers for use in the production process varies directly with the volume of incoming new business. Chart 3: Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing & supply Supplier performance varies according to the amount of goods bought by manufacturers for use in the production process. When demand for inputs rises, capacity constraints develop and delivery times lengthen (the delivery times index falls below 50) Chart 4: Eurozone Manufacturing / 10

11 resulting in an inverse relationship between purchasing and speed of supplier delivery. Chart 5: Eurozone Manufacturing Supply and input prices When suppliers become busier and bottlenecks arise, demand exceeds supply and a seller s market results, driving up input prices. Chart 6: Eurozone Manufacturing / 11

12 Input prices and output A direct relationship therefore exists between manufacturing output and raw material (input) prices. However, changes in input prices will lag changes in output. Chart 7: Eurozone Manufacturing Input prices and output prices A close relationship exists between input prices and output charges, as companies tend to raise the prices charged for their goods/services when the average cost of their inputs increases. The differential between output charge inflation and input price inflation can provide information on firms ability to pass on higher costs to clients (pricing power). The differential between output charge inflation and input cost inflation is also a barometer of pressure on profit margins in the manufacturing/service sectors. Chart 8: Eurozone Manufacturing / 12

13 Output and inventories Changes in stocks of finished goods lag changes in output Chart 9: Eurozone Manufacturing with output driven by changes in order books less changes in stock levels. Chart 10: Eurozone Manufacturing / 13

14 Output and employment Employment directly correlates with changes in output (or business activity in the service sector). Any divergences in the relationship provide important information on capital:labour intensity and productivity growth. Over time, output will tend to grow at a faster pace than employment as industry becomes increasingly capital intensive and reduces hours worked per unit of output. If employment grows at a faster pace than output, productivity will decrease. Chart 11: Eurozone Manufacturing Detailed industry sector PMI reports Markit PMI sector reports track output, demand, prices, employment, etc. allowing panel members to track changing trends in key supplier industries markets of relevance to their business. These detailed reports are freely available for survey members, covering broad geographic regions including Global, Europe and Asia. Chemicals Forestry & Paper Products Metals & Mining Automobiles & Auto Parts Food Beverages Household & Personal Use Products Media Tourism & Recreation Banks Insurance Other Financials Real Estate Healthcare Services Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology Machinery & Equipment Construction Materials Commercial & Professional Services Construction & Engineering General Industrials Transportation Technology Equipment Software & Services Telecommunication Services / 14

15 Further information and how to join To join a PMI survey, please click here For more information about the PMI surveys please contact us: economics@markit.com. Tel: Markit Economics Videcom House Newtown Road Henley-on-Thames Oxfordshire RG9 1HG United Kingdom About Markit Markit is a leading global diversified provider of financial information services. We provide products that enhance transparency, reduce risk and improve operational efficiency. Our customers include banks, hedge funds, asset managers, central banks, regulators, auditors, fund administrators and insurance companies. Founded in 2003, we employ over 3,500 people in 10 countries. Markit shares are listed on NASDAQ under the symbol MRKT. For more information, please see / 15