Strategic Overview of the Electric Vehicle Market and Supporting Infrastructure

Transcription

1 Strategic Overview of the Electric Vehicle Market and Supporting Infrastructure KSGW International Smart Grid Conference Presented by: Andrew Lee October 15 th 2014

2 Business Models EV Commercial Vehicle Market Infrastructure Electric - 2 Wheeler Batteries Database Legislations Voice of Consumer Urbanizatio n Trends EV Related Technology Market & Technology Research Focus: Electric Vehicles Global Urbanization Trends Mega City Trends PESTLE ANALYSIS Effects on personal, Urban & rural mobility EV infrastructure Development of public transport systems Electronic Corner Module Assessment of Hybrid Market Assessment of Fuel Cell Market Analysis of Green Automotive Technologies Industrial opportunities in EV Segment Country / City specific legislation EV Attractiveness / Ranking for key EU cities Local Incentives for electric vehicle adoption Specifications EV Fleets (Drivers / Managers) EU+NA+APAC EV Consumers EU+NA Consumer acceptability towards new Business Models Tracking Analysis Market / Technology Trends & Roadmaps Competitive Structure Global Market Forecasts Pricing trends Who supplies whom Database Technical specifications of competitors solutions Electric Vehicles Forecasts By OEM (Global) Hybrid Electric Vehicle (Global) Battery Technology Technical Specs of EV (Global) Charging Station Roadmap Technical Specs by Type & Mode of charging Evolution of Charging Stations Forecasts for installation by Cities Pricing Analysis Energy Infrastructure and Role of Utilities ROI for charging station and Utility business Cash flows and ROI for integrators Business Model assessment for OEMs Cost of Ownership Assessment ROI for Charging Station Manufacturers ROI for Utilities ROI for Battery Swapping Business Analysis of Key Potential Industries 360 Market Overview Market Size and Forecast Infrastructure and Legislative Trends Technology Analysis Business Model Assessment Cost of Ownership Consumer Adoption Trends Hybrid & Electric Commercial Vehicle Global Customer and Market Analysis of Fleets -Global Light CVs Medium and HCVs (Hybrids and Electric) 2

3 Global Market Drivers Overview United States Europe China Driven by CO2 reduction targets, Government incentives available for EV buyers and infrastructure Driven by CO2 reduction targets, Government incentives available for EV buyers Government sets high targets for EV penetration, driven by air quality concerns Independence from foreign oil supplies 100% participation from German OEMs Increasing availability of electric vehicles with local brands Technology Acceptance Participants from various verticals High consumer awareness for electric powered transport 3

4 Global Market Restraint Overview United States Europe China Short range and long recharge time Alternative technologies and Transport Number plates are limited Price premium between EVs and conventional vehicles Non-standardized and Lack of public infrastructure Electric vehicles carry a substantial premium Lack of public infrastructure Price premium between EVs and conventional vehicles Clarity and duration of incentives are unclear (customers and manufactures lack confidence) 4

5 EV Outlook 2014 Sales Forecast by Region and Technology Battery Electric Vehicles are likely to take up about 60% of the total EV sales in But share of PHEVs is expected to grow by 2-5%. Units (Thousands) Total EV Market: Unit Shipment Forecast by Region and Technology, Global, 2013 and 2014 ~190,000 ~6% ~21% ~14% ~59% % 3-4% ~ , % 2 4% 20 22% 23 26% 11 13% 12 15% 5 7% 19-21% 0.5 1% 50 54% 18-20% 44-46% 9-11% 76 80% 0-1% 0 1% 8 11% 58 62% 80 82% 64 68% 54 56% Europe North America China Japan Others Region BEV erev PHEV NEV Expected Growth Rate: % 2014 Others include India, Australia and South Korea MA3F-18 Note: Graph in center represents data for 2014 Source: Frost & Sullivan. 5

6 Case Study: Tesla Motors Brand positioning and Strategy With over 25,000 Tesla Model S now on the road, producing over 600 cars per week; the USA is the largest market followed by Norway Roadster Model Strategy Targets customers in the high performance Luxury sports market Competes with Porsche, Lotus, Mercedes- Benz SL-Class Automotive Digital Retailing Matrix Social Location 360 Degree Technology Model S Expected to be the volume driver Targets customers in the Luxury sedan market Competes with Audi A6, BMW 5-Series Model X Targets customers in the Luxury SUV market Will compete with Porsche Cayenne Hybrid, Lexus 400h Digital 'Sales Unique Experience Model 3 Targets mass-market (middle-class) consumer segment in the SUV/crossover market Will compete with the BMW 3 series, Mercedes-Benz C-Class Unique Product Packaging OTA Updates Replacement Battery Purchase Option Free Supercharging 6

7 Case Study: BMW Approach to EV Positioning and Mobility BMW had over 8,000 orders for the i3 at launch and has a total mobility approach to their EV strategy with the sub brand BMW i i3 Model Strategy Targets Urban drivers in the Luxury compact market Competes with Audi A3, Lexus CT, Mercedes- Benz A-Class i8 i9 i5 Targets customers in the high performance Luxury sports market Competes with Porsche, Lotus, Mercedes- Benz SL-Class Expected to be the volume driver Targets customers in the Luxury sedan market Competes with Audi A6, Mercedes-Benz E- Class Targets mass-market (middle-class) consumer segment in the SUV/crossover market Will compete with the Tesla Model 3, VW Golf Plus Unique Product Packaging Mobility Services CFRP Battery Design Source: Frost & Sullivan and BMW 7

8 Implementation of charging infrastructure has gathered pace More than 54,000 public and semi- public charging stations have been installed until 2013 across the United States and Europe. EV Market: Charging station Installation base, Europe, ,000 4,030 6,000 4,400 Installations in 2013 ~22,000 1,000 3,340 United Kingdom High Note: Estimated number of charging stations for Europe France Germany Denmark Norway Switzerland Netherlands Medium 1,400 7,500 EV Market : Charging Station Installation base, US, 2013 Low >4,000 2,000 4,000 1,000 2,000 2,000 2,200 1,300 1,500 Arizona California Florida Michigan New York Oregon Tennessee Texas Washington Installations in 2013 ~20,000 The regions covered under the EV project have experienced a major growth in the charging infrastructure as the plans were implemented through out 2012 in the United States with California having over 37 per cent of the installations in the United States. 1,200 2,100 Source: Frost & Sullivan 8

9 Inductive Charging - Future Trends Infiniti EV is expected to be the first electric vehicle to be launched during 2015 with an built-in inductive charging technology. Technology Advancement Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure : Future Market Trends, Global, OEMs may start adopting inductive charging as a built-in or optional feature Second phase for dynamic charging Demonstration projects for static charging Test tracks for dynamic charging Initial launch of dynamic charging Inductive charging available as an option by default. Establish Standards Initial launch of EVs with inductive charging as an option Test projects Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. 9

10 Opportunity Analysis OEMs with established telematics infrastructure will lead in commercial V2G implementation. Integrated Telematics Offering Cross Industry Partnerships Efforts on Battery Technology Apps and Software Focus Single Aggregator Model EV OEMs and automotive suppliers have a major opportunity in rolling out telematics infrastructure for EVs in a phased manner, first focusing on LBS for charging, then moving ahead with smart charging options, and eventually scaling up to offer V2G services For V2G to be successful, partnerships need to be formed between OEMs, utilities, software companies, and telematics service providers. Only this model will ensure seamless transition to designing and offering a commercial V2G business model. For V2G to be a commercial reality, battery technology needs to evolve with decreasing prices and increasing ranges; only this will allow EVs to be treated as distributed storage devices without creating range anxiety issues for consumers. Apps will evolve from just providing charging station locations, reservation functions to smart charging, and eventually control of V2G over apps, alerting the user of prices they will be offered for feeding energy back to the grid. Strong opportunities for companies such as utilities to succesfully create business models for V2G, offering the user a clear and simple billing structure Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis 10

11 Electric Vehicle Market Summary After years of evaluation and trials, the German Vehicle manufacturers now have electric vehicle solutions available for the mass market 1 Electric Vehicles continue to penetrate markets: EV demand were up to F&S expectations in In March 2013, F&S estimated an EV sales of 192,000 units globally and in actual about 190,000 EVs were sold by the end of December Year-on-year growth for 2014 is expected at 40-44% with units at ,000 EVs 2 Rise of the German Vehicle Manufacturers: After years of evaluation and trials, the German Vehicle manufacturers have an array of electric vehicles (Battery Electrics, Range Extenders & Plug-in Hybrids) BMW i3 & i8, Mercedes B Class, Volkswagen egolf and eup! 3 OEM Building their own charging networks: To support their own product launch, OEMs are finding new ways of developing their own infrastructure. For example, Tesla have built a Super charger network in select locations to allow drivers to travel from point to point, while OEMs like Nissan and BMW are providing customers will charge points across their dealer network 4 More clarity expected on Inductive Charging: Post testing and offering trails for inductive charging, OEMs are expected to come out with adoption plans for inductive charging Source: Frost & Sullivan 11

12 Q & A Andrew Lee Principal Consultant Automotive & Transportation Please Contact: +44 (0) / +44 (0) andrew.lee@frost.com 12