Sustainable Practices and Feedstock Production

Transcription

1 CBC Joint Forum on Bioenergy Sustainability and Life Cycle Analysis Sacramento, May Sustainable Practices and Feedstock Production Professor Ralph E H Sims Renewable Energy Unit International Energy Agency, Paris Ralph.Sims@iea.org Massey University, New Zealand

2 Aims in the next 20 minutes.. To provide an update on biomass and bioenergy based on the latest IPCC and IEA reports. To comment upon the biomass supply chain. To outline the challenges to meet greenhouse gas mitigation targets.

3 Between 1970 and 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions continued to increase 60 Total GHG emissions GtCO2-eq/yr IPCC 4 th Assessment Report Mitigation % In spite of all the policies, all the technologies, and the high energy prices since 2001, GHG continue to accelerate.

4 Energy related carbon dioxide is the largest contributor at around 60% of total emissions. Agriculture contributes around 10% from N2O N O and CH4 IPCC 4th Assessment Report Mitigation 2007

5 Long-term mitigation: stabilization and equilibrium global mean temperatures The lower the stabilization level aimed for, the earlier global CO2 emissions have to peak.

6 IPCC AR4 Biomass - cross cutting chapters Competition for the biomass resource?

7 What will be the competition for the future biomass resource? Heat Power Combined heat and power Transport fuels Bio-materials Bio-chemicals Soil conditioning Bio-refineries

8 Is biomass best used for heating? With major contributions from the Implementing Agreements: -Renewable Energy Technology Deployment, - Bioenergy, - Geothermal, - Solar Heating and Cooling - SolarPACES

9 The report examined the various REHC technologies, costs, markets and policy effectiveness. Installed capacity Energy output GW th PJ/yr Solar thermal water and space heating - solar assisted cooling <0.05 Bioenergy pellet heating - CHP - anaerobic digestion - MSW waste-to-energy Geothermal deep conventional - deep advanced - shallow geothermal By way of comparison: Biofuels use is around Total PJ/yr 1700 PJ/yr Renewable electricity (excluding hydro) 1900 PJ/yr

10 Why has biomass failed to reach the potential anticipated by various analyses during the past few years? Need to facilitate bioenergy projects so they are developed and deployed more rapidly. FREE DOWNLOAD FROM

11 It is not always easy to negotiate and obtain legal consents and supply contracts. The Rocky Point sugar mill cogeneration plant in Australia took 2 years of planning and needed 17 contracts and consents before building could begin!

12 Good Practice Guidelines The report is aimed at project developers, decision makers, municipalities, local communities and resource planners. There is a major section on sustainability of feedstock production.

13 Good Practice Guidelines Section 1 Section 3 Environmental and Social Impacts Section 2

14 What is the biomass supply potential in 2050? (IEA (IEA Bioenergy,, 2008) Energy cropping EJ/yr Energy cropping on marginal land < Forest residues Agricultural residues Organic wastes Animal manures Total Assumed potential for IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2008 report = 150 EJ/yr

15 Marginal land

16 Eucalyptus trees planted in strips on crop land to overcome dryland salinity problems.

17 Multi products and co-benefits Oil mallee integrated land use project a win / win Harvested every 3 4 years for: fine oils for the pharmaceutical industry; activated carbon via gasification for air filters, industrial applications etc; electricity generation from residues; renewable energy certificates; carbon credits. Or could be used for feedstock for second generation biofuels.

18 Assumed biomass resource in IEA Energy Technology Perspectives report Traditional biomass accounts for over 35 EJ /yr. Modern biomass currently provides around 8 EJ/yr of heat and power and 1.7 EJ/yr of liquid transport fuels. In 50% GHG reduction by 2050 scenario, biomass will increase to around 150 EJ/yr. This will require Mt biomass, half coming from crop and forest residues and the rest from purpose grown energy crops. 30 EJ /yr to produce TWh of electricity, 90 EJ/yr used for heating, cooking and bio- chemicals, 30 EJ /yr used for transport biofuels.

19 Average annual power generation capacity additions to meet 50% GHG reduction target.

20 Energy Technology Perspectives: Technology improvements for bioenergy expected by 2050? Gasification including BIGCC and black liquor. Biofuels 2 nd generation Fischer Tropsch for aviation, marine and heavy trucks. Bioenergy linked with Carbon Capture and Storage. Bioenergy linked with soil carbon uptake bio-char.

21 Can historic increases in crop yields continue and are they sustainable? Yield index [-] World average crop yield trends Fibre crops Maize Oilseed crops Rice paddy Sorghum Sugarcane Wheat

22 Can the supply chain systems be improved to reduce the delivered costs of biomass? John Deere/Timberjack

23 100MW steam 265 MW electric 60 MW district heating 66 bales / 60 t truck. Burns 400 bales / h

24 Delivered costs of biomass varies with supply chain system.

25 FOREST RESIDUES - NELSON Purchase System A System B System C Harvesting/chipping Handling Transport Storage System D System E System F System G $/t odt delivered

26 The sugar cane industry is well experienced in biomass handling, transport and processing Large plant sizes (typically 300,000t / yr) necessitate maximizing payloads in order to minimize delivered costs over long distances.

27 Well to Wheel Analysis - some observations

28 Biofuels GHG abatement potential Source: IEA & UNEP for OECD (2008) based on many published studies Potential of 2nd generation biofuels recognized

29 Renewable Energy RD&D budgets, IEA OECD countries Renewable energy Energy efficiency

30 Marginal abatement costs Technology Pessimism Technology Optimism

31 Sustainable Biofuels Consensus Rockefeller Foundation Centre, Bellagio.

32 In summary The future potential for the contribution of sustainable biomass to world energy supply is uncertain - but significant - using agricultural residues first and then energy crops. The technologies and the investment funding are mostly available - but we are running out of time. Bioenergy project deployment varies widely with the biomass feedstock supply and conversion technology but is often constrained. Urgent R D & D investment is needed to better determine supply chain logistics, life cycle analyses, carbon emission reductions, gasification, 2 nd generation biofuels etc. Bioenergy has good market potential for greenhouse gas mitigation leading up to 2050.

33 Diesel Unleaded gasoline OECD/IEA 2007