Renewable Energy An Introduction

Transcription

1 Renewable Energy An Introduction Adam Brown Simon Mueller Anselm Eisentraut Energy Training Week IEA Paris 4 April 2014 OECD/IEA 2014

2 RED Programme 4 April 2014 Introduction to Renewables Time Topic Presenter Introductions Market Trends Drivers and Barriers, Policy Mechanisms and Trends Discussion Coffee Adam Brown Technologies - Electricity Simon Mueller Discussion LUNCH Heat Sector Anselm Eisentraut Transport Sector Coffee

3 Renewable Energy Division - Some Current Priorities 1. RE Technology Status and Progress Roadmaps Wind PV Concentrating Solar Power Biofuels Geothermal Hydro Bioenergy Solar Heating and Cooling In-depth studies 2. Global RE Markets and Policies Medium Term Renewable Energy Market Report RE Policy Database Deploying Renewables Worldwide Challenges and Prospects (November 2011) 3. System Integration Issues The Power of Transformation) 4. Other activities and networking

4 IEA Energy Technology Network & Implementing Agreements RENEWABLE ENERGY: 10 out of over 40 Agreements Bioenergy Geothermal Energy Hydrogen Hydropower Ocean Energy Systems Photovoltaic Power Systems (PVPS) Solar Heating and Cooling Solar Power and Chemical Energy Systems Wind Energy RE Technology Deployment

5 Renewable Energy Markets Drivers and Barriers, Policy Mechanisms and Trends Adam Brown Training Week Paris 4 April 2014 OECD/IEA 2014

6 Positive outlook for renewable electricity TWh Global renewable electricity production, by technology (TWh) IEA 2 C Scenario 30% 25% 20% % % 5% OECD/IEA % Hydropower Bioenergy Onshore wind Offshore wind Solar PV CSP Geothermal Ocean % Total generation Gas-fired Nuclear generation generation Renewable electricity projected to scale up by 40% from 2012 to 2018

7 Renewable power spreading out everywhere Emerging markets more than compensate for slowing growth and volatility in markets such as Europe and the US Total Renewable Annual Capacity Additions, by region (GW) This map is without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.

8 Biofuels production growing but leveling off Biofuels supply by region Global biofuels supply adjusted for energy content vs road transport oil demand mb/d mboe/d % % % % Rest of Global Biofuels OECD EUR Biofuels Brazil Biofuels US Biofuels % 0.0% Biofuels Supply (adj. for energy content) As % of Global Road Transport Demand Biofuels to cover 3.9% of global road transport by 2018, But downside risk from growing policy uncertainty in the EU and US; and advanced biofuels not making enough progress

9 Final energy use of renewables for heat rises by 24% As % of final energy consumption for heat, renewables rise to almost 10% in 2018, up from just over 8% in 2012 and 8% in 2006 China accounts for 39% of global growth OECD Europe drives 22% of growth, with EU 2020 targets and rising bioenergy (direct use and commercial heat) and solar thermal use Final energy use of renewable sources for heat (including commercial heat) by region EJ % RES-H % % OECD Americas OECD Asia Oceania OECD Europe China Brazil India Rest of non-oecd % total heat, World (right axis) Note: excludes traditional biomass 10% 8% 6% 4% 2%

10 The Renewable Energy Family...share some features, but not all the same!

11 Characteristics Technology Status Typical Scale Global Energy Production Range of costs Power Generation TWh/y USD/MWh Biomass Commercial 100kW 300 MW Geothermal Commercial MW Solar PV Commercial 1kW 50 MW Solar CSP Demonstration MW Hydro Commercial 100kW - 10,000 MW Wind On Shore Commercial 1kW 500 MW Wind Off Shore Demonstration MW Wave and Tidal R&D,D 100kW - 2 MW Heating and Cooling PJ USD/MW Th Solar Water Heating Commercial 1kW th 1 MW th Geothermal Commercial MW th Traditional Biomass Commercial 0-5 kw th NA Modern Biomass Commercial 5kW th 30 MW th Transport Fuels PJ USD/LGE Bioethanol from sugar Commercial and starch 2100 Biodiesel from oil crops Commercial New Technologies for transport fuels R&D,D

12 Characteristics Technology Status Typical Scale Global Energy Production Range of costs Power Generation TWh/y USD/MWh Biomass Commercial 100kW 300 MW Geothermal Commercial MW Solar PV Commercial 1kW 50 MW Solar CSP Early MW Commercialisation Hydro Commercial 100kW - 10,000 MW Wind On Shore Commercial 1kW 500 MW Wind Off Shore Early Commercialisation MW Wave and Tidal R&D,D 100kW - 2 MW Heating and Cooling PJ USD/MW Th Solar Water Heating Commercial 1kW th 1 MW th Geothermal Commercial MW th Traditional Biomass Commercial 0-5 kw th NA Modern Biomass Commercial 5kW th 30 MW th Transport Fuels PJ USD/LGE Bioethanol from sugar Commercial and starch 2100 Biodiesel from oil crops Commercial New Technologies for transport fuels R&D,D

13 Characteristics Technology Status Typical Scale Global Energy Production Range of costs Power Generation TWh/y USD/MWh Biomass Commercial 100kW 300 MW Geothermal Commercial MW Solar PV Commercial 1kW 50 MW Solar CSP Demonstration MW Hydro Commercial 100kW - 10,000 MW Wind On Shore Commercial 1kW 500 MW Wind Off Shore Demonstration MW Wave and Tidal R&D,D 100kW - 2 MW Heating and Cooling PJ USD/MW Th Solar Water Heating Commercial 1kW th 1 MW th Geothermal Commercial MW th Traditional Biomass Commercial 0-5 kw th NA Modern Biomass Commercial 5kW th 30 MW th Transport Fuels PJ USD/LGE Bioethanol from sugar Commercial and starch 2100 Biodiesel from oil crops Commercial New Technologies for transport fuels R&D,D

14 PV Module Price (USD 2010/W p ) Costs are Reducing Growing deployment has led to cost reductions in key technologies Hydro and some geothermal already cost-competitive New technologies such as wind onshore, PV and biomass getting competitive in a broader set of circumstances < 1976 < 1980 < 1990 < 2000 Learning Rate: 19.3% Data from Breyer and Gerlach, 2010 < Cumulative capacity (MW)

15 Improving competitiveness for renewable power Most dynamic technologies onshore wind and solar PV increasingly competitive in a number of markets But market framework matters Deployment with little support occurring in some areas with rising energy needs, good resources, and predictable long-term revenues Global levelised costs of power generation ranges (USD per MWh) Utility scale Small scale 500 MTRMR OECD/IEA 2010 Note: costs reflect differences in resource, local conditions, and the choice of sub-technology.

16 Growing shares of renewables in all sectors, for all scenarios 50.00% 45.00% 40.00% 35.00% 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% 2008 CPS scenario 2035 NPS scenario scenario 2035 Electricity Heat Transport All scenarios point out a large growth of renewables

17 Continuing Policy Support: Necessary and Justified OECD/IEA 2010 Policies need to continue to deliver energy security, environmental and economic benefits Need for economic incentives RE technologies not yet generally cost competitive under current pricing mechanisms (e.g. lack of global carbon pricing) Transitional support needed to stimulate learning and cost reduction and bring a larger portfolio of RET to competitiveness Address non-economic barriers that hamper deployment Access to market and administrative hurdles Access to finance Infrastructure barriers Lack of awareness and skilled personnel Public acceptance and environmental barriers Policies need to have highest impact at lowest costs

18 Strategic Drivers - Outlook Key point: The geographical basis of deployment is set to expand.

19 Policy Trends Many more countries putting policies in place, particularly outside OECD than in of the 56 focus countries now have RE Electricity targets, including 20 non-oecd members. 53 of the 56 focus countries have electricity support policies in place, compared to 35 in 2005.

20 Why? Climate Protection Economic Development Energy Access and Security

21 Issues Technical Economic Environmental and Social Institutional, Political and Legislative

22 Deployment Policy Priorities: Changing Over Time Inception Take-off Consolidation Clear RE strategy and targets Attractive support Set up regulatory framework Predictable and rapidly adaptive incentives Focus on noneconomic barriers Manage total support costs System integration and transformation Market design and expose RE to competition Public acceptance Time

23 Policy Examples Economic Barriers Capital Grants Feed In Tariffs Tenders Obligations Technical Standards RD&D Socio Economic Planning Conditions Sustainability Criteria Awareness raising

24 Financial incentives Carbon Tax/Trading (e.g. EU ETS, Sweden) Feed In Tariffs/Premiums (e.g. Germany) Green Certificate Schemes/Quotas (e.g. UK, US RPS) Tenders (e.g. Brazil) Tax Incentives (e.g. US) Grants/Soft Loans (RE Heat)

25 Characteristics of Support Systems FIT/FIP TGC Tender Tax Incentive Capital Grant Volume Management Price Control Investor Confidence Complexity Growth of hybrid systems

26 Four Key Policy Ingredients System Integration Non Economic Barriers Smart Incentives Clear Strategy and Targets