Energy Technology Perspectives for the Iron and Steel Industry

Transcription

1 Energy Technology Perspectives for the Iron and Steel Industry Eric Masanet, Head, Energy Demand Technology Unit World Steel 50, Dubai, United Arab Emirates, 10-Oct-2016

2 Context First clear signs of decoupling of CO 2 emissions and GDP Global energy-related CO 2 emissions remained flat in 2015 for the second year in a row Unprecedented cuts in upstream oil and gas investments, and shifts to investments in low carbon and energy efficiency Renewable power capacity at record high with over 150 GW installed in 2015 Rapid decreases in the costs of solar PV and wind Paris Agreement provided a historic push for clean energy New goals put forward to limit long-term global temperature rise to well below 2 degrees Celsius Growing recognition that greater innovation is essential to meet ambitious climate goals IEA 2016

3 The scale of the challenge Contribution of technology area to global cumulative CO 2 reductions 45 4DS 40 Renewables 32% GtCO Energy efficiency 32% Fuel switching 10% Nuclear 11% DS CCS 15% The carbon intensity of the global economy can be cut by two-thirds through a diversified energy technology mix OECD/IEA 2016

4 Global progress in clean energy needs to accelerate Technology Status today against 2DS targets Electric vehicles Solar PV and onshore wind Other renewable power Nuclear More efficient coal-fired power Carbon capture and storage Biofuels Transport Industry Buildings Appliances and lighting Energy storage Not on track Accelerated improvement needed On track Global clean energy deployment is still overall behind what is required to meet the 2 C goal, but recent progress on electric vehicles, solar PV and wind is promising OECD/IEA 2016

5 Mission Innovation Leaders of 20 countries representing: 67% of global greenhouse gas emissions 70% of global GDP 80% of global clean energy R&D investments Each doubling its clean energy R&D investments over next 5 years Complemented by the private sector Breakthrough Energy Coalition IEA 2016

6 OECD/IEA 2016 World Energy Investment: a new annual report that measures energy investment and implications

7 Demand growth led by Asia Change in energy demand in selected regions, Mtoe European Union United States Japan Latin America Middle East Southeast Asia Africa China India By 2040, India s energy demand closes in on that of the United States, even though demand per capita remains 40% below the world average OECD/IEA 2015

8 Primary energy demand growth Primary energy demand by fuel in the New Policies Scenario OECD/IEA 2015

9 Power is leading the transformation of the energy system Global electricity generation by source TWh Renewables Coal Gas Nuclear Oil 2014 Change to 2040 Of which: Hydro Wind Solar Other renewables Driven by continued policy support, renewables account for half of additional global generation, overtaking coal around 2030 to become the largest power source OECD/IEA 2015

10 Industry s critical role Global CO2 reductions between the 6DS and 2DS by sector DS Other transformation 6% 40 Buildings 14% GtCO DS Transport 18% Industry 23% Power generation 39% The 2DS requires significant carbon emissions reductions to be achieved in all end-use and transformation sectors. OECD/IEA 2016

11 The role of iron and steel Direct industrial CO2 emissions and final energy reductions in the 2DS compared with the 6DS 14 CO 2 emissions 300 Final energy GtCO EJ Cement Iron and steel Pulp and paper Aluminium Chemicals and petrochemicals Other industries Iron and steel associated with the largest reduction in direct emissions, but CO2 emissions and energy use must be decoupled OECD/IEA 2016

12 Main innovative options for low-carbon steel Upgraded smelting reduction (SR). Maximises the CO 2 content of the off-gases through pure oxygen operation, making CO 2 capture more straightforward. A 90-day pilot plant trial is planned for Avoids the need for coke or sinter. Oxy blast furnace and top gas recycle: The CO 2 content of the top gas is raised by replacing the air in the blast furnace with oxygen and recycling the top gas. Lowers coke requirements. Coke oven gas (COG) reforming: Increasing the hydrogen concentration of COG through reforming tar to reduce net energy consumption. Through integration with oxy blast furnaces, CO 2 capture can be added. An upgraded DRI process that reuses off-gases from the shaft as a reducing agent after CO 2 capture. Avoids the need for coke or sinter. CO 2 capture applied to on-site utilities and general combustion equipment. Addition of a post-combustion CO 2 capture unit to: hot stoves, steam generation plant, coke oven batteries and/or lime kiln. Each of these options requires CCS for low-carbon production Plus in a longer-term, molten oxide electrolysis relying on renewable electricity IEA 2016

13 Progress with CO 2 capture in the iron and steel sector IEA 2016

14 Globally, 6% of the final energy use in iron&steel making could be technically recovered Global excess heat recovery technical potential Iron & Steel EJ GJ/t crude steel EJ GJ/t crude steel 0.0 BOF off-gas recovery EAF off-gas thermal recovery CDQ Sinter cooler exhaust thermal recovery 0.00 China India Other Asia Africa and Middle East Non-OECD Latin America Other non-oecd OECD Specific EH recovery potential NOTE: Only medium and high temperature IEH sources (>100 degc) and commercial recovery technologies included. SOURCE: Energy Technology Perspectives EJ (or 1.3 GJ/t crude steel) could be technically recovered globally in I&S BOF off-gas recovery is the greatest overall energy savings opportunity in the analysis Around 74% of the IEH recovery potential in I&S is based on non-oecd countries OECD/IEA 2016

15 Sustainable transport systems: implications for materials demand Urban transport investments USD trillion Vehicles Internal combustion engine Electrified Infrastructure Parking and road Metro and light rail 0 4DS DS In the 2DS, by 2050 one billion cars are electric vehicles while public transport travel activity more than doubles OECD/IEA 2016

16 Overview of IEA roadmap process Engage cross-section of stakeholders 1. Identify a baseline: Where is technology today? 2. Establish a vision: What is the deployment path needed to achieve 2050 goals? 3. Identify technical, regulatory, policy, financial, public acceptance barriers What are the near term action items? 4. Develop implementation action items for stakeholders Energy technology roadmaps OECD/IEA 2013

17 IEA roadmaps: a living library publications, Energy technology 21 different roadmaps technology areas OECD/IEA 2012

18 A global iron and steel industry roadmap? Regional, 2013 CEMENT Global, 2009 Final industrial energy use, 2014 (154 EJ) 1% 3% 4% 2% 5% 4% 1% 1% 2% Iron and steel Chemical and petrochemical Non-metallic minerals Non-ferrous metals Transport equipment 11% 15% Machinery Mining and quarrying Food and tobacco Paper, pulp and print CHEMICALS Global, % 23% Wood and wood products Construction Textile and leather Non-specified (industry) IRON & STEEL Workshop 2Q2017? SOURCE: IEA Energy Balance. Note: Iron & Steel includes blast furnaces and coke ovens. Chemicals & Petrochemicals includes petrochemicals feedstocks. IEA 2016

19 Conclusions The steel industry has reduced its energy consumption substantially and continues to do, but the marginal gains in existing processes are diminishing The close link between the steel industry and coal, makes integrated steel mills (and steel demand?) vulnerable to climate policy and pro-climate action (shareholders, investors etc.) The steel industry is not under immediate pressure to reduce emissions and innovative processes are under development Downside: they are over a decade from widespread adoption and they require integration of CO 2 capture (which probably requires a CO 2 storage business) Way forward (a roadmap for steel in a low carbon future): Identify the benefits of innovative processes for environment and export reasons Promote technology development projects to improve novel processes, e.g. more pilots Collaborate on other relevant R&D/projects: oxygen production, hydrogen production, CO 2 storage, enhanced oil recovery IEA 2016

20 Thank you OECD/IEA 2016