Public regulation for 100% Renewable Energy (RE)

Transcription

1 Public regulation for 100% Renewable Energy (RE) The case of conservation,district heating, cogeneration,heatpumps, electrical cars and balancing intermittent RE Frede Hvelplund Department of Development and Planning, Aalborg University Salzburg 2010

2 The need for Innovative Democracy Windpower, cogeneration, district heating, etc. did not develop because of governmental initiatives, or initiatives from large power companies. On the contrary these technologies developed despite initial resistance from these organisations. This lesson is still to a large extent valid.

3 Innovative Democracy or Public regulation for stratecic change I. Direct market policy (CO2 quotas/cdm, JI, CO2 tax, etc.) II. Institutional redesign Tariff policy, tax structure, financial inst. etc. III. Reforming political processes Technological scenarios. Existing market Present Institutional market design -Tax structure, tariffs -Schools/Universities -Technological Institutions. -Democratic participation. -Ownership structure - Etc. Goals of society -Climate -Energy security -SocioEconomy -Democracy -Etc. P a r l i a m e n t - M u n i c i p a l i t i e s Old energy market dependent Traditional district heating companies, power companies, etc New energy market dependent lobbyists -wind-,solar-, geothermal -Energy conservation technologies Energy market independent lobbyists - Energy NECGOs - Public discussion

4 Characteristics of the technical scenarios 1. Reduction of heat demand 35-50%. 50%. 2. Expansion of district heating area from 47% to 60%-70% of the heat market. 3. Change to renewable energy supply systems based on wind-,, solar-,biomass,biomass-,, geothermal sources 4. Establish heat systems that are able to integrate fluctuating renewable energy sources. (Low temperature,heat storage,heat pumps, electric cars etc.)

5 District heating, as infrastructure for integrating Renewable Energy A system of heat pumps, heat storage, district heating and later electric cars is needed for regional integration of Renewable Energy. So district heating is a part of a necessary future infrastructure. This is generally recognised by Danish planners, and also by the system coordinator organisation, ENERGINET.DK.

6 1. Changing the district heating systems a. Optimizing balance between energy supply and conservation b. As infrastructure for intermittant renewable energy

7 Optimizing supply and conservation in the Aalborg district heating system 30,00 Marginale omkostninger [kr/m3] 25,00 20,00 15,00 10,00 5,00 Optimum supply/conservaton - 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Besparelse af nettoopvarmningsbehov Omk. varmebesparelser Omk. forsyning lav vind-omk. Omk. forsyning høj vind-omk.

8 Fixed share of the heat bill in % Source: Anders Larsen: Towards a sustainable district heating system in Copenhagen

9 The Copenhagen case/some examples (18.1 Annual heat payment. changing to 100% variable tariffs Annual variable payment (18.1 MWh/year house) Break even investment (6% discount rate/15 year lifetime- 25% house improvement. Break even investment with 100% variable tariffs Tårnby (38%) (4.000) Gentofte (53%) (4.000) Albertslund (79%) (4.000) København Energi (76%) (4.000) Brøndby Vester (46%) (4.000) Frederiksberg (79%) (4.000) 3.197

10 The fixed tariff is almost 10 times the size of a CO2 tax, which at 20 Euro per tons would only cost Euro per year. So it is not enough with a CO2 tax

11 Conclusion regarding tariff problems and public regulation 1. It does not pay to make 25%-50% 50% heat conservation at present financing- and tariff conditions. 2. But it will pay if: - 20% subsidy for insulation, and cheap energy consultancy service. -100% variable tariffs - 3% p.a./30 year loans for insulation - municipal guaranty for the loans.

12 2. Public regulation for integrating Renewable Energy The needed combination is: - District heating, - CHP, - Heat pumps, - Heat storage, -In years Electrical cars To balance intermittant Renewable Energy

13 Needed reforms for large heat pumps - 20% subsidy 2011 less following years. - Reduced electricity taxation for 2500 full load hours. (Survive without killing CHPs) - Low interest loans (3% p.a.) and municipal warranty Financed by district heating system!!!

14 Needed reforms for small heat pumps Certified system: Heat pump % energy conservation in the house m3 hot water storage + an agreement with Energynet.DK Should get: a.20% Subsidy in Less for investors the following years. b.reduction of electricity tax down to natural gas tax level (60% reduction)

15 Ownership? 1. Main principle for on-and offshore wind power is local and regional ownership (municipal, private households and companies. A minority fraction (25%) large power companies.) 2. For distribution grid systems consumer ownership 3. For transmission grid systems governmental ownership

16 3. Changing car traffic

17 Energy addiction and car taxation Fixed costs Fixed tax Variable costs Variable tax in DK Total costs in cent per km Total costs Tax share in cent per km CO2 costs per km at 20 per tons 0.3 (150 g CO2 per km)

18 Fixed costs Fixed tax Institutional redesign of car taxation in DK (cost neutral case km/year) Variable costs Variable tax Total costs in cent per km Tax share in cent per km = = = = 9.2 Total costs CO2 costs per km at 20 per tons 0.3 (150 g CO2 per km)

19 Influence on different consumers km per year km per year km per year Change in annual car costs - 10% (- 600 ) 0% (0 ) + 6.5% (600 ) Change in variable price per km + 60% + 60% +60%

20 Conclusion on the car case 1. CO2 tax on 20 per tons has no effects (0.3 cent per km) and institutional redesign is necessary. 2. This institutional redesign results in 60% increase in km dependent cost, or 6 cent per km, which is 20 times the effects of a 20 per ton CO2 tax.

21 The need for institutional redesign and innovative democracy I. Direct market policy (CO2 quotas/trade etc.) II. Institutional redesign Tariff policy, tax structure, financial inst. etc. Existing market Institutional market design -Tax structure -Schools/Universities -Technological Institutions. -Democratic participation. -Etc. Goals of society -Climate -Economy -Democracy -Etc. III. Reforming political processes P a r l i a m e n t - M u n i c i p a l i t i e s Old energy market dependent Traditional district heating companies Weak new energy market dependent lobbyists -wind-,solar-, geothermal -Energy conservation technologies Energy market independent lobbyists -Energy NGOs -Public discussion

22 100% renewable energy is possible. Let us just do it together with the others that also want technological leadership and hope for the future.