Freight Logistics and the Panama Canal Expansion. Robert Harrison Center for Transportation Research UT Austin June

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1 Freight Logistics and the Panama Canal Expansion Robert Harrison Center for Transportation Research UT Austin June

2 State Economies and Transportation US GDP in 2011 Dollars California 13.1%; Texas 8.7%; New York 7.7% Texas has critical transportation corridors that play a state and national role TxDOT Gateways, corridors, modes and hubs Two Megaregions (America 2050) Class 1 Rail networks and strategies reflect a system wide planning Major deep water ports and Intracoastal Waterway

3

4 Texas Imports and Exports 2011 Trade Data $ Billion Imports $ 309 (22% US Total) Exports $ 251 (14 % US Total) Aggregate $ 570, California $ 511 Modal corridors: pipelines, highways, rail, deep water ports, intra coastal waterway, air freight These combine to form the domestic supply chains and hubs driving big freight flows

5 Freight Logistics Addresses commodity characteristics speed, value, inventory, security, reliability Connects modes at key transfer points Is dynamic and responds to input changes like fuel price Sensitive to all operational costs Innovative Prefers choice

6 Global Trade 1990s NAFTA was aus and Texas Focus Global Trade becomes significant and impacts US and Texas trade corridors at several deep water ports and air hubs Larger Panama Canal locks raise efficiencies for Savannah and Charleston, Florida, and Gulf Port Asian imports and exports Canal Authority claim it is a game changer

7 Global Trade More Than TEUs Liquid Bulk oils, chemicals Dry Bulk grains, ores, steel, forest products Autos Break Bulk machinery, oil well equipment Containers dry, hi top, reefers

8 Panama Canal Expansion A Texas Logistics Perspective Ship size expands choice Provides the potential for reducing costs Offers a boost to exports Longer term impacts more important than short term impacts to state economy North South trade strongest in the next 5 years

9 The rise of Latin America Source. The Economist

10 The Panama Canal

11 Liner Services Through The Panama Canal Tokyo Qingdao PyongtaekYokoham Busan a Shanghai Taipe Ningbo Yantian i Hong Kong Kaohsiung Chiwan Vancouver Seattle Oakland New York Norfolk Los Angeles Charleston Ensenad Mobile Savannah a Houston Jacksonvill e Miami Manzanillo Lázaro Kingston San Juan Cardenas P. Pto. Quetzal PR P. Caucedo Cabello Cartagena CristobalManzanillo Port of Spain Balboa Hamburg Tilbury Rotterdam Antwerp Dunkirk Le Marin Havre Bilbao La Spezia Naples Valencia Gioia Tauro Tangier Dubai Manta Guayaqu il Sidney Melbourne Papeete Lautoka Noumea Tauranga Auckland Napier Timaru Port Chalmers Calla o Ilo Iquique Mejillones Antofagast a San Antonio Trade Route Number of Services Yearly Capacity Number of Vessels Average Vessel Size Asia - USEC 13 3,008, ,440 Pendulum 3 747, ,784 WCSA - Europe 8 1,097, ,900 Asia - Caribbean 1 239, ,588 WCSA - Caribbean 1 97, ,405 WCSA - USEC 3 378, ,423 Oceania - USEC Europe 2 209, ,654 USWC - Europe 2 283, ,255 USWC - ECSA 1 100, ,918 Source: Compair Data, January 2011

12 The Panama Canal GAME CHANGER POTENTIAL

13 Port Development in Panama 1996: 235K TEUs 2010: 5.6M TEUs 2015: 8.4M TEUs(P) Panama Ports Company Cristobal Colon Container Terminal Manzanillo International Terminal (MIT) Panama Ports Company - Balboa

14 Value-Added Components of Panama s Transportation and Logistics Cluster Transisthmian Pipeline Colon Free Zone Technology and Innovation Center Fiber Optic Duct Real Estate Banking Center Panama-Pacific Special Economic Zone

15 Trans shipment? Colon Houston 1528* 4 days Colon Savannah 1563* 4 days Colon Freeport/Houston 2276* 7 Days *Nautical miles

16

17 Strategic Response? Short term: Current facilities will serve the increases in PC trade volumes, but post Panamax size limited to 45 ft. channel draft, removing key system wide bottlenecks, particularly at or near landside terminals Monitor shallow draft port energy related growth and GIWW traffic Medium term: Improved rail access to deep water terminals, planning new terminals near deep water with 50 ft. channels Long term: Diversion to other trade corridors if channels remain at 45 ft.

18 Panama Canal Expansion Impacts now becoming more modest Shift of manufacturing from China to Southeast Asia make Suez Canal competitive Export markets may be limited by inadequate port infrastructure Railroads will protect market share on competing corridors Texas port value critical to state economy and needs to be captured in TxDOT planning

19 Maritime TxDOT Planning Partner with deep water ports, railroad companies and key GIWW users Monitor new services for bulk, break bulk and containers imports and exports Determine potential constraints: accessing ports (channels), terminal efficiencies and landside connections, both highway, rail and barge Short, medium and long term impacts

20 Questions?

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