PORT INFRASTRUCTURES TOC AMERICAS PANAMA CITY OCTOBER 14TH, 2015 MANUEL C. KABANA FRIOPUERTO INVESTMENT, SPAIN

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1 PORT INFRASTRUCTURES TOC AMERICAS PANAMA CITY OCTOBER 14TH, 2015 MANUEL C. KABANA FRIOPUERTO INVESTMENT, SPAIN

2 PORT SELECTION FACTORS BY CATEGORIES(I) PORT LOGISTICS COSTS SERVICE LEVELS 1. PORT DUTIES 1. CUSTOMER SERVICE 2. REPERCUSION OF ENERGY COSTS 2. SECURITY 3. LAND TRANSPORTS COSTS 3. REPUTATION 4. MARITIME FREIGHT FROM THE PORT 4. PRODUCTIVITY 5. PORT COSTS 5. EFICIENCY 6. LOGISTICS COSTS 6. SERVICE QUALITY

3 PORT SELECTION FACTORS BY CATEGORIES(II) PORT PHYSICAL & OPERATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS CHARACTERISTICS OF IMPORT/EXPORT OPERATIONS 1. GENERAL CARGO VOLUMES 1. SHIPMENTS FRECUENCY 2. HANDLING CAPACITY OF IT DOCUMENTS 2. EXPORT DIMENSIONS 3. PORT OPERATIONS 3. TOTAL TRANSIT TIME 4. OPERATIONAL CAPACITY 5. STORAGE CAPACITY 6. PORT DIMENSION 7. PORT INFRAESTRUCTURES 8. NODAL CONNECTIONS 9. GEOGRAPHICAL LOCATION

4 AMERICAS TOP CONTAINER PORTS PORT 2014 ( 000 TEUs) % 2014/2013 % 2014/2011 LOS ANGELES 8,340 6% 5% LONG BEACH 6,821 1% 13% NEW YORK/NEW JERSEY 5,772 6% 5% SANTOS 3,685 7% 23% BALBOA 3,468 9% 7% SEATLE 3, % 67% SAVANNAH 3,346 10% 14% COLÓN 3,287-2% - VANCOUVER 2,913 3% 16% VIRGINIA (HAMPTON R) 2,393 8% 25% CARTAGENA 2,237 13% 32% CALLAO 1,992 7% 23% GUAYAQUIL 1,621 7% 21% BUENOS AIRES 1,401-22% -

5 How the Panama Canal Expansion Is Redrawing the Logistics Map AT A GLANCE Following the Panama Canal expansion, up to 10 percent of container traffic to the U.S. from East Asia could shift to East Coast ports by West Coast ports will still handle more traffic than they do today, but their market share will likely fall. The Changing Logistical Landscape Growth rates for the larger ports on the West Coast will decrease, competition among East Coast ports will intensify, and rail and truck traffic patterns will shift. The Time Versus Cost Trade-Off The West Coast will always be the fastest option for reaching much of the U.S., but the East Coast will become the least costly option for many shippers. The Battleground The battleground on which U.S. ports compete for customers will move several hundred miles west, to a region that accounts for more than 15 percent of GDP. Urgency to Act The expansion underscores the need for shippers and carriers to adapt their strategies and operations in light of the growing complexity of the logistics field. The Panama Canal will reformulate transport and logistics operations in the U.S., the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean. It is time to anticipate the new scenario (until now uncerticity has prevented the implementation of changes by operators) More options but far more complexity as of 2016 (traffic until now via the West Coast and Railways). The expansion of the Panama Canal comes at a time in world trade developments that is prone to uncertainties while new trade relations are not firmly established. The Boston Consulting Group C.H. Robinson

6 PANAMA S CANAL EXPANSION WILL PROBABLY BALANCE PORT TRAFFIC AMONG U.S. COASTS IN 2020 In 2014, about 35 percent of East Asia container traffic docked on the East Coast. Without the canal s expansion, the current trends of higher growth rates for East Coast ports would push that share to 40 percent. In other words, 40 percent is the 2020 baseline if current economic, energy, and shipping trends remain constant. With the expansion in place, however, the East Coast s share could reach 50 percent. East Coast Ports Stand to Gain 10 Percent Additional Share of Container Traffic from East Asia to the U.S. +10% share of incoming traffic (%) 2020 momentum case without Panama Canal expansion (%) 2020 momentum case with Panama Canal expansion (%) Sources: U.S. Census Bureau international trade data; Drewry Shipping Consultants freight reports; BCG analysis. The Boston Consulting Group C.H. Robinson

7 U.S. Rebound. The U.S. economy continues to grow at the robust rate exhibited at the end of Strong import demand drives up wages in China, shifting some manufacturing to Southeast Asia (through the Suez Canal). East Coast ports make sizable investm ents to accept post-panamax vessels, while railroads increase their capacity at historical growth rates. Energy costs remain low, discouraging some shippers from routing through the Panama Canal. This scenario results in a 5 percent shift in market share. A Battleground Region Representing 15 Percent of GDP Will Be in Play Between West Coast and East Coast Ports SEATTLE- TACOMA Detroit OAKLAND LOS ANGELES LONG BEACH 15% OF GDP Memphis Chicago Columbus NEW YORK NEW JERSEY BALTIMORE NORFOLK SAVANNAH AND CHARLESTON HOUSTON NEW ORLEANS GULFPORT Major West Coast ports GREATER MIAMI Major East Coast ports The battleground region in which West Coast and East Coast ports compete for customers Major demand centers in the battleground region Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis; BCG analysis. The Boston Consulting Group C.H. Robinson

8 WEST COAST EAST COAST The Largest East Coast Ports Will See the Greatest Demand Increases; the Impact on Others Is Less Clear NEW YORK NEW JERSEY SAVANNAH AND CHARLESTON NORFOLK GREATER MIAMI HOUSTON NEW ORLEANS GULFPORT BALTIMORE LOS ANGELES LONG BEACH SEATTLE-TACOMA OAKLAND Unclear or no significant impact from canal expansion Sources: JOC Group; BCG analysis. Current relative port volume Negative impact from canal expansion Positive impact from canal expansion The Cost, Time, and Flexibility Trade-Offs Shippers will make different choices based on the value of their cargo, transportation costs, transit time, and flexibility. The Boston Consulting Group C.H. Robinson

9 Expansion of Panama Canal and challenges for Caribbean ports Global shipping industry is driven by two forces of scale and technology and the Caribbean, comprising a group of small islands sharing space, is challenged to find relevance within this paradigm. Performance of most container terminals in the Caribbean: higher handling charges and that the overall cost of transport and insurance in the Caribbean basin is some 30 per cent higher than the world average. The Caribbean case scenario The prospect for Caribbean transhipment involvement is integrally tied to the efficiency and competitiveness of the expanded Panama Canal. The following key drivers to transhipment will influence the highly coveted Caribbean hub port status: Port must be located at the crossroads of principal maritime trade routes Productivity of stevedoring operations Guarantee of berths Competitive tariff Control of operations Safety and security Dedicated feeder services Major competing hubs within the Caribbean are Kingston, Jamaica; Freeport, Bahamas; Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago; Caucedo, Dominican Republic; Panama; Colombia and Cuba, in the near future.

10 Caribbean transhipment triangle with hub ports At global level, only 17 per cent of commercial relations involve direct connections between ports, so transhipment is a fundamental aspect of maritime shipping networks. The growth in Caribbean transhipment activities is related to issues such as economic growth in Latin America and the need for shippers to reconcile, within their shipping networks, these many inbound and outbound trade flows. In addition, South America represents a remarkable potential for additional volumes and transhipment activities. In the triangular transhipment hubs, local and regional carriers continue to play a major role in local trade, but are threatened by loss of global and some regional trade to alliances between operators. These global operators can offer more competitive prices when exploiting economies of scale. Port sector bottlenecks Port costs ripple right through national economies. In fact, port costs affect the price of goods and services in nearly every sector of the economy. Competitiveness requires a modern, well-managed, cost-effective port system. Other trends affecting Caribbean ports that have had a significant influence on the way port operations are planned, developed, operated, positioned and marketed include: Changing trends in production and consumption of goods and materials Changing patterns in distribution and trade transport Increasing cooperation among ports to share resources in capacity building Enhanced focus on security and safety Greater involvement of shipping companies in container port development Greater attention to handling bigger, more sophisticated ships carrying larger volumes of cargo Intense use of technology and IT applications to assist port operations More focus on improving tariff structure as a competitive strategy Introduction of value-added services and infrastructures

11 CONCLUSION Port authorities and terminal operators will have to adjust their strategies, development and operations to suit the dynamics and realities of the port business and trade environment. In addition, port operators must gear themselves to accommodate the trend towards ship upsizing, which will require deeper draught, higher crane productivity to minimise berthing time and enable vessels to maintain their voyage schedule. The expanded capability of the Panama Canal will have a great positive impact on the Caribbean. The Caribbean region is positioned to take advantage of this development. What will become necessary are the infrastructural and logistical components, all essential if the region is to reap rich benefits. Key developments which will shape the future of the region are: the emergence of ultra large container ships; declining freight rates; overcapacity in the global shipping industry; and carrier consolidations. In the short to medium term, however, the global economic climate remains highly volatile and uncertain. Finally, the canal expansion will impact the regional shipping industry because of the increase in the size of ships it handles. Ships in the 4,000 to 8,000 Teu range will be plying the north-south trade routes with more vessel-sharing agreements being formulated to pull service volumes together; and continued growth and expansion of transhipment ports across the Caribbean.

12 SHALL WE ALSO GIVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO CUBA IN NEAR THE FUTURE?

13 2014 AT CONTAINER PORTS IN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN Slowdown during 2014, as growth was only 1.3% to 47,0 Million TEUs in 120 accounted Ports. Of which, 40 Ports moved 41,8 Million TEUs (89% of total). Increases at West Coast South America with 5.3%, Mexico with 4.0% and Central America with 3.4%. Declines at East Coast South America with 2.2%, The Caribbean with 8.2% and Argentina with 22.4%. Declines in The Caribbean: Jamaica with 3.9%, Bahamas 6.9% and Dominican Rep. 9.9%.

14 GENERAL CONCLUSIONS SHIPPERS, TRANSPORT COMPANIES AND LOGISTICS OPERATORS WILL HAVE TO ADAPT THEIR STRATEGIES AND OPERATIONS (costs vs time savings to provide efficiency to their operations). WILL ALSO HAVE TO ANALYSE THE CONVENIENCE OF MOVING THE LOCATION OF STORAGE DEPOTS OR DISTRIBUTION CENTERS. EAST COSTS PORTS HAVE INCREASED THEIR TRAFFIC VIA THE PANAMA CANAL FROM 32% to 35% IN THE LAST 4 YEARS. DURING THE SAME PERIOD, EAST COAST TRAFFIC VIA THE SUEZ CANAL HAS ALSO INCREASED FROM 32% TO 38%. POST-PANAMAX VESSELS WILL MAKE FEWER SCALES AND WILL CONCENTRATE THOSE IN MAJOR PORTS, THUS FAVORING THE GROWTH IN THE PORTS WHICH ARE PREPARE AND HAVE THE APPROPIATE INFRAESTRUCTURE TO ACCOMMODATE THOSE TRAFFICS. THE ASIA ROUTE TO THE EAST COAST WILL LOWER UP TO 30% MARITIME TRANSPORT COSTS (due to the higher tonnage and lower labor and energy costs per container) BUT WILL REQUIRE HIGHER INVENTORIES (based on the cargo to be transported and the transit time, up to 11 more days). INCREASE VALUE-ADDED SERVICES AND INFRASTRUCTURES. THE INCREASE OF PANAMA S CANAL COSTS IS INDEED AN ECONOMIC THREATH TO ITS COMPETITIVINESS WHILE THE FUTURE USE OF LNG AS FUEL MIGHT REDUCE TRANSPORT COSTS SUSTANCIALLY. OTHER AFFECTING FACTORS: INCREASING PRODUCTIONS COSTS & REDUCING EXPORTS IN CHINA (8%) AND INDIA (10%), INTERNAL DEMAND GROWTHS IN CHINA (10%) AND INDIA (15%), BRICS & E.M. REDUCING GNP S GROWTH, EXCHANGE RATES & FINANCIAL TENSIONS, ETC. BRING MORE COMPLEXITY TO THE NEW SCENARIO. WHILE GLOBAL TRADE MIGHT SUFFER IN THE NEAR FUTURE AS GLOBAL CONSUMPTION DECLAINS.

15 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION MANUEL C. KABANA

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