The World s population: trends, prospects and challenges

Transcription

1 The World s population: trends, prospects and challenges Presentation to Geography Teachers Association of Victoria Jeremy Reynolds, Manager, Demographic Research, DSE, Victoria Monash, 25 th November, 2005

2 Australia - on the cusp of a major change: past and projected natural increase for Australia 350, ,000 Actual Projected Deaths 250,000 No. of persons 200, , ,000 Births Natural Increase Deaths Births 50, ,000 Natural Increase -100, Year Ended 30th June Source: ABS

3 The World s population: trends, prospects and challenges 1. Introduction general trends, distributions and drivers of change 2. Ageing populations and declining fertility 3. International migration 4. Urbanisation 5. Questions

4 We are big (1): Comparing Australia and Europe

5 We are big (2): Comparing Australia and the USA (excluding Alaska)

6 We are small: the World Population Map Source: New Internationalist, 2005

7 World Population Growth, Year Population Annual Growth Rate Source: United Nations, 2005

8 World Population Growth, Oceania Latin America & the Caribbean Northern America Europe Asia Africa Population (Billions)

9 Population increases world absolute and growth rates World population growth, five year periods, 1950 to Population change per year (millions) Population growth rate (%) Population change per year (millions) Population growth rate (%) Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision, 21 November 2005; 10

10 Births, deaths and natural increase, , World 160,000 World - Births, deaths and natural increase per year (thousands), 1950 to , ,000 Thousands per year 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, Five year period ending Births Deaths Natural Increase

11 Changing shares of World s population, 1950, 2000 & Australia China India Indonesia Japan Europe North America Africa Source: UN Population Projections, medium variant, 2004

12 Births, deaths and natural increase, , Europe 14,000 Europe - Births, deaths and natural increase per year (thousands), 1950 to ,000 10,000 Thousands per year 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, ,000-4, Five year period ending Births Deaths Natural Increase

13 Births, deaths and natural increase, , China 35,000 China - Births, deaths and natural increase per year (thousands), 1950 to ,000 25,000 Thousands per year 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, ,000-10, Five year period ending Births Deaths Natural Increase

14 Births, deaths and natural increase, , India 30,000 India - Births, deaths and natural increase per year (thousands), 1950 to ,000 Thousands per year 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Five year period ending Births Deaths Natural Increase

15 Births, deaths and natural increase, , Africa 45,000 Africa - Births, deaths and natural increase per year (thousands), 1950 to ,000 35,000 Thousands per year 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Five year period ending Births Deaths Natural Increase

17 Changes in median age of population, Median age of population, world and regions, 1950 to World Africa Asia Europe Northern America Latin America & the Caribbean Oceania Median age (years)

18 Changes in proportion of population aged 0-14, Proportion of population aged less than 14 years, world and regions, 1950 to World Africa Asia Europe Northern America Latin America & the Caribbean Oceania Population aged less than 14 years (%)

19 Changes in proportion of population aged 65 and over, Proportion of population aged more than 65 years, world and regions, 1950 to World Africa Asia Europe Northern America Latin America & the Caribbean Oceania Population aged more than 65 years (%)

20 Changes in fertility rates, Fertility rate, world and regions, five year periods, 1950 to World Africa Asia Europe Northern America Latin America & the Caribbean Oceania TFR - Births per woman

21 Differences in national fertility rates Fertility rates, selected countries, Total fertility rate (children per woman) Nigeria 5.85 United States of America 2.04 New Zealand 1.96 Australia 1.75 China 1.70 United Kingdom 1.66 Canada 1.51 Italy 1.28

22 What influences fertility rates? 1. Wider availability of oral contraceptive and better health 2. Higher levels of education start later and have fewer children 3. Changing role of women in the workforce in more economically developed countries 4. Family support from governments and social institutions 5. China s one child policy

23 Changes in life expectancy, Life expectancy, world and regions, five year periods, 1950 to World Africa Asia Europe Northern America Latin America & the Caribbean Oceania Life expectancy (years)

24 Increasing life expectancy % chance of survival by age, males, Victoria, 1881 to % surviving A B C D E F A B C D E F Source: ABS Age

25 Health issues: costs increase strongly with age Source: Source: Australian Australian institute Institute of Health of Health and Welfare, and Welfare 2001

26 Income by age, Australia, 2001 Persons 300,000 $1,500 or more 250,000 $1,000 - $1,499 $700 - $999 $400-$ ,000 $120-$399 $1-$ , ,000 50, Age

27 Workforce implications The demographic gift % 62.7% 58.4% Population 13.1 million 19.4 million 24.9 million Age groups 0-17 years years 65+ years Source: ABS

28 Government responses to ageing Encourage workers to stay in the workforce Increase productivity ie increase wealth and the capacity to pay Increase and/or make superannuation compulsory Increasingly privatise health costs Increase migration

30 Proportion of population born overseas OECD countries Foreign population as a proportion of total, 1999 Australia Canada Sweden United States Netherlands Austria Germany Belgium France Denmark Britain Ireland Finland Italy Portugal Spain Japan Source: OECD

31 The public image of migration? Baxter hell, indefinitely filled with indefinite detainees

32 Tales of migration in the 21 st century With two friends I started the journey to Greece, the most horrendous of all journeys. It had the all the details of a nightmare, walking barefoot in rough roads, risking death in the dark, police dogs hunting us, drinking water from the pools in the road and a rude awakening at gunpoint from the police under a bridge. My parents were terrified and decided that it would be better to pay someone to hide me in the back of a car 16 year old Albanian high school drop out.

33 The going rate for assisted passage (in 2000) Trip Kurdistan Germany China - Europe China - New York Pakistan / India USA Arab States UAE North Africa Spain Iraq Europe Middle East - USA Mexico - Los Angeles Philippines - Malaysia / Indonesia Cost in US $ 3,000 10,000-15,000 35,000 25,000 2,000-3,000 2,000-3,500 4,100-5,000 1,000-15, ,500 Source: Migrant Trafficking and Human Smuggling in Europe : International Organisation for Migration, 2000

34 Legal and illegal migrants, per year Legal Illegal (estimated) European Union 1.2 million 500,000 USA 1 million 500,000 Australia 120,000 negligible

35 Net migration per year (thousands), world regions, Net Migration per year (thousands) Africa Asia Europe Northern America Source: United Nations, 2005 Latin America & the Caribbean Oceania

36 Why do people move from one country to another? Economic advantage, growing income gap between rich and poor countries. Huge economic advantages to be gained Skills and labour shortages in fast growing, ageing, information economies Education opportunities Political, social and economic oppression at home Good understanding of opportunities elsewhere cheap and universal telecommunications Family re-union Cheap and relatively easy travel, but not always

37 Brain drain and the issue of the diaspora: Indians in the USA 1 million Indians living in USA in 2001 This is 1% of India s population More than 75% of those of working age had a degree The earnings of that 1% adds up to 10% of India s national income

38 A biggest brain gainer - Australia 1.5m migrants in Australia have a tertiary qualification 116,000 tertiary-educated Australians live overseas Overseas born tertiary educated are 11.4% of the national workforce, 7 times the OECD average

39 Settler arrivals by eligibility category, Australia, Family Sk ill Humanitarian Non-program % Year ended 30 June Source: ABS, DIMIA

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41 Age structure of net overseas migration & Australian resident population,

42 How do migrants get on in different countries? Different countries have different approaches: Multi-culturalism (eg Canada, Australia, NZ, UK) Assimilation (eg France) Denial of nationality (Germany until 2000) Upward mobility through home ownership and business ownership: (USA, Canada, Australia, UK)

43 Stepping outside the triangle comparing Melbourne and Berlin MELBOURNE BERLIN Population 3.5 million 3.5 million Liveability ***** ***** Current population growth rate 1.25% -0.1% Projected growth next 30 years +1 million -400,000 Vacant dwellings 34, ,000 Owning rent ratio 69 / / 88 Unemployment 5% 17% Third generation migrants Upwardly mobile High unemployment rate, can t speak German

45 The growth in number of big cities

46 An urban world 100 year process: In /3 of all people lived in rural areas In 2050, 2/3 of all people will live in cities North America, Latin America and Europe are already urbanised Africa will have an extra 80 million living in cities by 2010 Asia will have 280 million more living in Cities by 2010 We are creating a new Chicago every two months Source UN-HABITAT

47 Urban slums and poverty 95% of the World s population increase between 2000 and 2030 will be absorbed by the urban areas of less developed countries Rural population of less developed regions will grow by only 0.1% p.a. between 2000 and 2030 The urban population will increase from 2 billion (2000) to 3.5 billion (2030) Between 40% and 80% of urban dwellers currently live in poverty By 2050 there will be 3 billion slum dwellers Slum formation is occurring at 5 to 10 times the rate that they are being upgraded Source: UN-HABITAT

48 Slums on three continents Cape Town Rio de Janeiro Manila

49 Slum improvement in Lagos Before After

50 Drivers of the problem: Population pressure from natural increase as health improves Population pressure as people leave rural areas International trade conditions impacting adversely on less developed countries Often corrupt and unstable governments Loss of local capacity brain drain to developed countries

51 Urbanisation and urban revival in developed countries Hong Kong Melbourne New York City

52 Some common trends Cities are at the forefront of the global economy, are gaining economic power, often at the expense of rural areas

53 The advantage of big cities: GLOBALISATION - information technology - global economy The knowledge economy/society - uncertain - discontinuous - turbulent - mobile Big cities: - Offer wide choices - Can adapt quickly - Can be anonymous INDIVIDUALISATION - choice / values - careers

54 Some common trends Cities are at the forefront of the global economy, are gaining economic power, often at the expense of rural areas They are the gateways for overseas migration Cultural changes are lead to smaller average household size which compounds demands for new housing

55 Index of population and household growth, Melbourne, Population Households ,000 households Index 2001=100 ERP ,067,000 people 90 Source: DSE VIF Year (30th June)

56 Changing household formation and composition 1 dwelling 4 people Couple with 2 children household Moving out of home 2 dwellings 5 people Couple with 1 child household Moving out of home 3 dwellings 6+ people Couple with no children household Death of partner 4 dwelling 6 people Lone person household Partnering/ getting married Couple with no children household Group household Couple with no children household Birth of child Couple with 1 child household Lone person household Separation/ Divorce Single parent household

57 Much of Melbourne s future growth is the product of its own dynamic: two-thirds of additional households come from within Source: DSE VIF2004

58 Some common trends Cities are at the forefront of the global economy, are gaining economic power, often at the expense of rural areas They are the gateways for overseas migration Cultural changes are lead to smaller average household size which compounds demands for new housing Inner cities are undergoing revival All are having problems coping with population growth, affluence (demands for space) and the mobile nature of the information economy

59 The march of consumerism fuelled by affluence and technology more consumption per capita or household No electricity Energy for lighting, cooking and heating Sophisticated heating & cooling systems? 2 children Share bed 2 single beds per bedroom 2 single bedrooms with en-suites? Mass transit, No cars Extensive household car ownership Extensive individual car ownership?

60 Some differences Local taxation and racial issues have stimulated flight of middle class to suburbs (USA) Some countries have extensive ex-urban commuting networks (eg Europe) Different urban hierarchies in different countries (eg Australia vs USA, Europe) Different cultures and attitudes to living (eg Australia vs Germany, France, Netherlands, Scandinavia) Different planning policies (green belts, new towns etc)

61 Major differences in urban density Canberra Brisbane Perth Adelaide Melbourne Australia City Sydney Houston Phoenix Portland San Franci Chicago New York Vancouver Los Angeles Toronto London Paris Zurich Stockholm Munich Vienna Kuala Lumpur Tokyo Singapore Bangkok Jakarta Hong Kong North America Europe Asia Urban Density (Persons per hectare)

62 Planning wars a city s development and planning is always topical and political.

63 Tensions over change FUNCTION FORM The changing functions of cities and their suburbs The Strategic realm for debate Planning and policy tensions development Built environments often cherished with meaning

64 The changing function of cities and their suburbs The changing functions of cities and their suburbs Cities have become more affluent with higher standards of living and expectations Transition from an industrial to a knowledge economy More diverse society and values More diverse household and living arrangements Often activities have become geographically more diffuse Shift from mass transit to individual mobility Many of these changes not clearly visible

65 Built environments are often cherished and have meaning Cities have got bigger and spread out in surrounding regions The built environment changes slowly and provides a strong legacy The realm for debate and policy development The built environment is familiar and very visible Urban character is cherished and often defended against change Built environments have meaning

66 Australian urban strategies WA State Sustainability Strategy

68 The World s population: trends, prospects and challenges Presentation to Geography Teachers Association of Victoria Jeremy Reynolds, Manager, Demographic Research, DSE, Victoria Monash, 25 th November, 2005