Population Aging in Developed Countries: Emerging Trends and Dynamics Wan He, Ph.D. Population Division U.S. Census Bureau

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1 Population Aging in Developed Countries: Emerging Trends and Dynamics Wan He, Ph.D. Population Division U.S. Census Bureau This presentation is released to inform interested parties of population aging research and to encourage discussion of official statistics on aging. Any views expressed on statistical issues are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the U.S. Census Bureau.

2 The World Is Aging Varying from Steady to Rapid Growth Percent of Population Aged 65 and Over: 2008 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base,

3 Percent of Population Aged 65 and Over: 2040 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base,

4 World s 25 Oldest Countries All in Developed World Percent of population aged 65 years or older: 2008 Japan Italy Germany Greece Sweden Spain Austria Bulgaria Estonia Belgium Portugal Croatia Latvia Georgia Finland France Slovenia Ukraine United Kingdom Switzerland Lithuania Denmark Hungary Serbia Norway Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base,

5 OUTLINE Present 5 emerging population aging trends Examine 5 dimensions of aging dynamics Concluding remarks 4

6 EMERGING TRENDS 5

7 Trend 1. There will be more older people than children by Trend 2. Developing countries aging much faster than most developed countries. Trend 3. Older populations themselves are aging. 6

8 Trend 4. Simultaneous population aging and population decline. Trend 5. Increasing proportion of older people, especially women, live alone in European countries. 7

9 Trend 1. There will be more older people than children by

10 People Aged 65 and Over Projected to Outnumber Children Under 5 by 2020 Young Children and Older People as a Percentage of Global Population: 1950 to 2050 Under 5 65 and over Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, World Population Prospects. The 2006 Edition. 9

11 Europe Has Highest Aging Index Northern Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Asia (excluding Near East) Near East Eastern Europe Western Europe Latin America/Caribbean Northern America Oceania 7 12 Aging Index: 2008 and 2040 (Aging index = [65+/0-14]*100) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base,

12 Trend 2. Developing countries are aging much faster than most developed countries. 11

13 Developing Countries Aging Much Faster Than Most Developed Countries Number of Years Required or Expected for Percent of Population Aged 65+ to Rise from 7 to 14 Developed Countries Developing Countries Source: Kinsella and Gist, Older Workers, Retirement, and Pensions. A Comparative International Chartbook. U.S. Census Bureau P95/01-1; U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base,

14 Trend 3. Older populations themselves are aging. 13

15 Over One-Third of Older People Could be Oldest Old Oldest Old (80+) as a Percent of All Older (65+) People: 2008 and 2040 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base,

16 More Than Half of the World s Oldest Old Lived in 6 Countries in 2008 Global Distribution of People Aged 80 and Over: 2008 (In percent) Note: Other Asia includes Near East. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base,

17 Population Aged 90 and Over Growing in Size and Proportion of Older Population Population Aged 90 and Over in the United States: 1980 to 2050 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau. 1980: 1980 Census of Population, PC80-1-B1, Table 41; 1990: 1990 Census of Population, CP-1-1, Table 13; 2000: Census 2000, Summary File 2, PCT3; 2010: Age and Sex Composition: 2010, 2010 Census Briefs, C2010BR-03, May 2011; : 2008 National Population Projections, Table

18 Population Aged 90 and Over Growing Faster Than Those Aged Percent Change of Populations Aged 65 to 89 and Aged 90 and Over in the United States: 1980 to 2050 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau. 1980: 1980 Census of Population, PC80-1-B1, Table 41; 1990: 1990 Census of Population, CP-1-1, Table 13; 2000: Census 2000, Summary File 2, PCT3; 2010: Age and Sex Composition: 2010, 2010 Census Briefs, C2010BR-03, May 2011; : 2008 National Population Projections, Table

19 Trend 4. Simultaneous population aging and population decline: an unprecedented development. 18

20 Population Decline Simultaneous With Population Aging Countries/Areas With a Projected Population Decline of at Least 1 Million Between 2008 and 2040 (In millions) Russia Japan Ukraine South Africa Germany Italy Poland Spain Romania Bulgaria Belarus Czech Republic Taiwan Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base,

21 Shifting Russian Age Structure in Next 30 Years Projected Age Specific Population Change in Russia Between 2008 and 2040 (In percent) Ag Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base,

22 Trend 5. Increasing proportion of older people, especially women, live alone in European countries. 21

23 More Than 40 Percent Older Women Live Alone in Some European Countries Percent Aged 65 and Over Living Alone in Ten European Nations by Sex: 2001 Source: Ireland Central Statistics Office, Ageing in Ireland. Dublin: Central Statistics Office. 22

24 AGING DYNAMICS 23

25 1. Older Dependency Ratio 2. Fertility 3. Life Expectancy 4. Gender Differentials in Marital Status 5. Institutionalization 24

26 Dimension 1. Older Dependency Ratio (ODR) Very High ODR in Developed Countries. 25

27 Some Developed Countries Have Just Three Working-aged People per Older Person Older Dependency Ratio for Selected Developed Countries: 2008 (People 65 and older per 100 people aged 20 to 64) Japan 36 Italy 33 Greece 31 Belgium 29 France Latvia United Kingdom Ukraine Belarus 23 Russia United States Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base,

28 Support Needs Differ Vastly Between Developed and Developing Countries Composition of Total Dependency Ratios for Selected Countries: 2008 Note: Youth Dependency Ratio is the number of people aged 0 to 19 per 100 people aged 20 to 64. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base,

29 Dimension 2. Total Fertility Rates Below-replacement level fertility rates in most developed countries. 28

30 Total Fertility Rate in Most Developed Countries Is Below Replacement Level Total Fertility Rate for Selected Developed Countries by Region: 2008 (Births per woman) WESTERN EUROPE EASTERN EUROPE Austria 1.4 Bulgaria 1.4 Belgium 1.7 Czech Republic 1.2 Denmark 1.7 Hungary 1.3 France 2.0 Poland 1.3 Germany 1.4 Russia 1.4 Greece 1.4 Ukraine 1.3 Italy 1.3 OCEANIA/NORTHERN AMERICA Norway 1.8 Australia 1.8 Sweden 1.7 Canada 1.6 United Kingdom 1.7 New Zealand 2.1 United States 2.1 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base,

31 Population Pyramid of Developed Countries Could Invert by 2040 Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, World Population Prospects. The 2006 Edition; U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base,

32 Dimension 3. Life Expectancy Life expectancy at birth and at age 65 continues to rise in most countries. 31

33 Life Expectancy at Birth Doubled in Some Countries Between 1900 and 2008 Life Expectancy at Birth for Selected Countries by Sex: 1900, 1950, and 2008 Circa 1900 Circa Region/country Male Female Male Female Male Female EUROPE Austria Belgium France Greece Hungary Italy Spain United Kingdom OTHER DEVELOPED COUNTRIES Australia Japan United States Sources: Siampos, Trends and Future Prospects of the Female Overlife by Regions in Europe. Statistical Journal of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe 7: 13-25; United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, World Population Prospects. The 2006 Eidtion; U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base,

34 Life Expectancy at Age 65 Also Rising in Many Countries Evolution of Life Expectancy at Age 65 in Japan, the United States, and France by Sex: 1950 to 2004 Male Female Source: University of California, Berkeley and Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Human Mortality Database, <www.mortality.org>, accessed

35 Mortality Improvements for Ages Larger Than for Ages Percent Change in Death Rates for Two Older Age Groups in Selected Countries by Sex: 1994 to 2004 Note: Data for Australia are for 1993 and Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Demographic Yearbook 1996 and

36 Dimension 4. Gender Differentials in Marital Status Higher female widowhood but gender gap in proportion married may be narrowing. 35

37 Widowhood for Women Rises Earlier and More Steeply Than for Men 100 Percent Widowed in Denmark: Female Male Source: Statistics Denmark, <www.statbank.dk>, accessed

38 Gender Gap in Proportions Married May be Narrowing for Older People Proportions Married and Widowed for People 65 and Over in the United Kingdom by Sex: 1971 to 2021 (In percent) Source: United Kingdom Office for National Statistics, Changes in Marital Status for People Aged 65 and Over, 1971 to Social Trends

39 Dimension 5. Institutionalization Demographically oldest countries have highest rates of institutional use. 38

40 One in Ten Older People in Some Developed Countries Live in Institutions Percent of People Aged 65 and Over in Institutions: Circa 2001 Norway, 2001 Denmark, 2001 Netherlands, 2003 Sweden, 2001 France, 1997 Belgium, 1998 Japan, 2003 Australia, 2003 Finland, 1997 United Kingdom, 1996 Austria, 1998 Israel, 2000 United States, 2000 Germany, Source: Gibson, Gregory, and Pandya, Long-Term Care in Developed Nations: A Brief Overview. AARP Policy and Research Report Washington, DC. 39

41 CONCLUDING REMARKS 40

42 World s population is aging at an unprecedented rate. Developed countries represent the oldest countries; however, developing countries are aging at a faster pace than developed countries have been. Population in some countries is projected not only to age, but also to decline. 41

43 Main demographic factor for aging and population decline is very low levels of fertility for a sustained period of time. Current and future mortality changes will assume greater weight than fertility, especially in relatively aged countries. Men and women age differently. 42

44 Global aging represents a triumph of medical, social, and economic advances. Aging also produces challenges to social insurance and pension programs, health care systems, and existing models of social support. 43

45 Financial and social implications of population aging have stimulated the expansion of research into new areas of inquiry, ranging from macroeconomic to genetic. Emphasis has grown on longitudinal data collection and multidisciplinary study design. 44

46 For more information, see An Aging World:

47 90+ in the United States: (forthcoming) 46

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