Immigration in the Long Run:

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1 Immigration in the Long Run: The education and earnings mobility of second generation Canadians Miles Corak Graduate School of Public and International Affairs

2 Two questions to motivate the presentation Terms such as Inclusion Exclusion Assimilation Integration Social cohesion have all become important touchstones for public policy discussion, particularly as it relates to immigrants 1. Introduction

3 Two questions to motivate the presentation 1. Who was throwing the Molotov cocktails in the streets of Paris? 1. Introduction

4 Two questions to motivate the presentation 1. Who was throwing the Molotov cocktails in the streets of Paris? In fact, not immigrants, but the French born adult children of immigrants from a generation ago. 1. Introduction

5 Two questions to motivate the presentation 1. Who was throwing the Molotov cocktails in the streets of Paris? 2. Can it happen here? 1. Introduction

6 Two questions to motivate the presentation 1. Who was throwing the Molotov cocktails in the streets of Paris? 2. Can it happen here? Canadians can only hope that their public education system and their public institutions can somehow impart a sense of shared values That dream must be matched with the promise of equal opportunity. --- Globe and Mail, November Introduction

7 About one-fifth of the Canadian population has immigrant origins, among the highest in the OECD Immigrants as percentage of total population Australia Switzerland New Zealand Canada Germany Sweden United States Austria Belgium Netherlands France Ireland United Kingdom Norway Denmark Finland Italy 1. Introduction

8 Immigrants to Canada are increasingly diverse in their origins 100% 90% U.S.A. 80% 70% Europe 60% Asia & Middle East 50% 40% Africa 30% 20% Caribbean, South and Central America 10% Oceania & Other 0% Before Introduction

9 Labour market outcomes among male immigrants have deteriorated Reasons for the deterioration in relative earnings according to Aydemir and Skuterud (2005) Year of entry into Canada About 1/3 due to the changing mix of language ability and country of origin Another 1/3 to a decline in the value of foreign labour market experience, particularly for men from non traditional countries The remainder is due to adverse labour market conditions at the time of entry of immigrants relative to native born Canadians Introduction

10 and as a result low income rates are high and getting higher 40 About 15% of non immigrants live in low income and this is declining slightly Over one in three recent immigrants live in low income, up significantly since 1980 Percent living in low income Non-immigrants All immigrants Recent Immigrants 1. Introduction

11 What are the consequences for the children of immigrants? This question leads us to a discussion of generational mobility An important aspect of the defining metaphors of Canada and other countries like the United States Immigration as a central element of this story A longer run perspective on integration that shifts the focus to children, the so-called second generation 1. Introduction

12 Objectives --- (1) education outcomes Our analysis focuses on three questions related to educational attainment that can help inform this discussion 1. What is the degree of generational education mobility in Canada, and is it different among immigrants and their children? 2. What factors are most tightly related to the schooling outcomes of second generation Canadians, parental earnings or parental education? 3. Has the strength of the tie between parent and child education outcomes changed? 1. Introduction

13 Objectives --- (2) earnings outcomes The analysis also addresses two questions related to adult earnings 1. What is the degree of generational earnings mobility among the children of immigrants in Canada? 2. How does it compare to the population as a whole and to other countries? Along the way we also examine some of the underlying variation in the data to suggest that the tendencies do not reveal the whole story, and we accordingly highlight some of the communities at risk of disengagement 1. Introduction

14 About one-third of Canadians are immigrants or the children of immigrants Second Generation Canadians make up about 15% of the population About 35% of the population are immigrants or the children of immigrants 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 2nd Generation Immigrant " Native " Both parents Only mother Only father 12 years or older less than 12 Canadian born 20% 10% 0% 2.65 Aboriginal 2. Descriptive overview

15 Second generation Canadian men are less likely to drop out of high school than their counterparts whose parents were born in Canada Proportion of age cohorts with less than 12 years schooling, Men in 2001 Percent Canadian born with Canadian born parents Canadian born with Immigrant parents to 34 yrs 35 to 44 yrs 45 to 54 yrs 55 to 64 yrs 2. Descriptive overview

16 and they are more likely to reach university Proportion of age cohorts with 16 or more years schooling, Men in Percent to 34 yrs 35 to 44 yrs 45 to 54 yrs 55 to 64 yrs 2. Descriptive overview

17 The patterns are no different for women 30 Less than high school University degree Percent Canadian born parents Both parents Immigrants Canadian born parents Both parents Immigrants 2. Descriptive overview

18 Major findings --- (1) education outcomes 1. There is only a loose tie between the education of second generation Canadians and their parents Much looser, about only a half to a third, than that for Canadian born children of Canadian born parents 2. Money has little to do with this intergenerational tie, indeed if anything lower earning immigrants have more educated children 3. The strength of this tie between parent and child years of schooling has not changed across birth cohorts of the post-war era 3. Education mobility across the generations

19 Second generation Canadian women with lower educated fathers are more likely to have a university degree than their counterparts whose parents were born in Canada Less than high school High school graduate Some post secondary University Father's educational attainment 3. Education mobility across the generations

20 Second generation Canadian men with lower educated fathers are more likely to have a university degree than their counterparts whose parents were born in Canada Less than high school High school graduate Some post secondary University Father's educational attainment 3. Education mobility across the generations

21 Generational education mobility among the sons of Canadian immigrants Average Years of Schooling, Sons ITALY PORTUGAL GREECE PARAGUAY UGANDA CYPRUS / SYRIA SPAIN / OTHER E ASIA YUGOSLAVIA LEBANON MALTA OTHER C AMERICA CHINA FINLAND ECUADOR TAIWAN CANADA TANZANIA KENYA HKONG KOREA MALAYSIA PAKISTAN EGYPT INDIA\ IRAN/IRAQ / /SRI LANKA JAPAN-- N.ZEALAND S AFRICA W AFRICA FRANCE PHILIPPINES INDONESIA AUSTRALIA OTHER E/C AFRICA US SWEDEN Average Years of Schooling, Immigrant Fathers 3. Education mobility across the generations

22 There is only a loose tie between the education of second generation Canadian sons and their parents 2nd Generation Father's education Among 2 nd generation Canadian sons each additional year of paternal education is associated with 0.13 years more schooling 2nd Generation 3rd Generation For Canadian men whose parents were born in the country, each addditional paternal year is associated with 0.4 years more schooling 2nd Generation 2nd Generation Mother's education These results are unchanged when the associations with mothers education are calculated 3rd Generation Education mobility across the generations

23 There is only a loose tie between the education of second generation Canadian daughters and their parents 2nd Generation 2nd Generation 3rd Generation 2nd Generation 2nd Generation 3rd Generation Father's education Mother's education Among 2 nd generation Canadian daughters each additional year of paternal education, is associated with 0.10 to 0.16 years more schooling For Canadian women whose parents were born in the country, each addditional paternal year is associated with 0.37 years more schooling These results are unchanged when the associations with mothers education are calculated Education mobility across the generations

24 Major findings --- (1) education outcomes 1. There is only a loose tie between the education of second generation Canadians and their parents Much looser, about only a half to a third, than that for Canadian born children of Canadian born parents 2. Money has little to do with this intergenerational tie, indeed if anything lower earning immigrants have more educated children 3. The strength of this tie between parent and child years of schooling has not changed across birth cohorts of the post-war era 3. Education mobility across the generations

25 Major findings --- (2) earnings outcomes 1. There is only a loose tie between the earnings of second generation Canadians and their parents For men this is no different than for the population at large For women there is no link at all, unlike the population at large 2. By international standards this relationship is quite loose and specifically it is looser than in the United States 3. But in spite of this overall tendency there is a good deal of variation in experience, and there are some communities in which low earnings are transmitted across the generations 4. mobility across the generations

26 Generational earnings mobility among the sons of Canadian immigrants Mean log Wage, 2nd Generation Sons OTHER E ASIA ECUADOR OTHER C AMERICA LEBANON HAITI GRENADA GREECE TAIWAN EGYPT SYRIA MOROCCO NEW ZEALAND TURKEY IRAN/IRAQ SRI LANKA --ROMANIA NORWAY UGANDA OTHER N AFRICA -- FRANCE S AFRICA CHINA COLOMBIA OTHER W ASIA S. LUCIA \ \ W AFRICA FIJI JAMAICA TANZANIA CANADA OTHER CARIBBEANS IRELAND FINLAND UK SWEDEN OTHER E/C AFRICA AUSTRALIA Mean log Wage, Immigrant Fathers 4. mobility across the generations

27 Cross country comparisons of the degree of generational earnings mobility Countries differ in the extent to which family economic status is related to labour market success of children in adulthood More than 40% of a father s earnings advantage is passed on to sons in France, the US, Italy and UK, less than 20% in Canada, Finland, Norway and Denmark 4. mobility across the generations

28 Generational progress in earnings varies by region of origin, with largest gains being made by daughters and those with parents born in Asia Weekly as percent of Canadian born/with Canadian born parents Fathers in 1980 Sons in 2000 Daughters in North America, Europe Caribbean, South America Southern and Eastern Europe Africa Asia Immigrant Fathers' region of birth 4. mobility across the generations

29 Son s education greater than Canadian Son s education less than Canadian less than greater than less than greater than Father s education greater than Canadian Father s education less than Canadian less than greater than less than greater than Variations in outcomes

30 Son s education greater than Canadian Son s education less than Canadian less than greater than less than greater than Father s education greater than Canadian Father s education less than Canadian less than greater than less than greater than Variations in outcomes

31 Low earnings across the generations for sons in spite of higher than averge education Barbados 2. Colombia 3. Grenada 4. Guyana 5. Haiti 6. Jamaica 7. Japan 8. Oceania 9. St. Lucia / St. Vincent 10. Trinidad 11. West Africa The majority of these 11 countries are Caribbean or surrounding South American Japan is an exception, but the earnings of father and son are essentially at the Canadian s and it could just as easily be classified as above 5. Variations in outcomes

32 Daughter s education greater than Canadian Daughter s education less than Canadian less than greater than less than greater than Father s education greater than Canadian Father s education less than Canadian less than greater than less than greater than Variations in outcomes

33 Major findings An important additional caveat: Overall it is appropriate to adopt a rather sanguine perspective on the overall performance of Canadian immigrants and social institutions, but it should be tempered by the fact that there remain specific yet important challenges 6. Conclusion

34 Policy Issues and cautions 1. This analysis looks back at the experiences of children whose parents came to Canada before 1980, and who went to school in the 1980s, and entered the labour market in the 1990s. The extent to which these patterns hold into the future is what is relevant for the children of more recent cohorts of immigrants. 2. Assimilation or integration of immigrants needs to be appreciated in a longer term perspective, a cross-generational one, rather than just with regard to immediate labour market goals. Are we reaping possibly unintended consequences of the point system and can it be designed with an eye to the long term welfare of children? Or is it family motives that matter more? 3. Immigration policy in a generational context is linked up with broader social policies having to do with education, access, and opportunity. 6. Conclusion

35 Immigration in the Long Run: The education and earnings mobility of second generation Canadians Miles Corak Graduate School of Public and International Affairs

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