Trends in International Education

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1 Trends in International Education 1

2 Presentation Objectives 1. International landscape the competitive environment for recruitment of international students 2. Key statistics 3. Key trends 4. Observations/Conclusions 2

3 Why worry we ve never had it so good! 1. OECD estimates annual fee income at $30 billion worldwide million internationally mobile students worldwide (UNESCO) 3. The EU is the market leader 4. Value of global education increasing, demand is soaring 3

4 The reality Markets are volatile and can change quickly Uncertainty about future student flows 4

5 Global trends a few suggestions Affordability and pricing Global competition Competitive positioning of country destinations Immigration and integration Expectations around career outcomes Alternative delivery methodologies Private providers Safety and Security 5

6 Global Trends Over 2.7 million students enrolled outside their home country in 2005 (OECD, 2007) Over 120 million students study in HE across the world (UNESCO 2007 and BC estimates) HE Students Studying Overseas (in millions) Global proportion of all students studying overseas (in relation to the tertiary education in country expansion) has only increased by 2% for the same period Source: OECD (2007), Education at a Glance.

7 The Global Market for Overseas Students Chart C2.2. Distribution of foreign students in tertiary education, by country of destination (2007) Percentage of foreign tertiary students reported to the OECD who are enrolled in each country of destination Other partner countries 11.3% United States¹ 19.7% Other OECD countries 7.0% Netherlands 1.3% Switzerland 1.4% Belgium 1.4% China 1.4% Sweden 1.4% Austria 1.4% South Africa 1.8% Italy 1.9% Spain 2.0% Russian Federation 2.0% New Zealand 2.1% Japan 4.2% Canada² 4.4% Australia¹ 7.0% France 8.2% United Kingdom¹ 11.6% Germany 8.6% 1. Data relate to international students defined on the basis of their country of residence. 2. Year of reference Source: OECD and UNESCO Institute for Statistics for most data on partner countries. Table C2.7, available online. See Annex 3 for notes (www.oecd.org/edu/eag2009). 7

8 International Recruitment 101 Global Market Share World Market Share Change (%) (countries with >1% global market share) United States United Kingdom Germany France Australia Japan Russian Federation Canada New Zealand Spain Belgium Italy Sw eden Sw itzerland Austria Netherlands Market share, 2000 Market share, 2005 Loss in market share has been absorbed mainly by USA & to a smaller extent UK and Germany UK and USA are now working to build and protect market share Real evidence of competition between destinations in student applications

9 Key Competitor Countries' Growth Rates 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% US UK Germ any Australia US and UK: Malaysia S Korea Thailand Indonesia China 13,000 India 17% Nigeria 30% Thailand 10% Middle East & NA Mainly China 36% India 45% 0% -5% 1995/ / / / / / / / / / / /07

10 Major source countries for UK, US & Australia USA UK Australia India 103,260 China 50,020 China 45,873 China 98,235 India 23,910 India 25,085 S. Korea 75,065 United States 22,245 Malaysia 14,897 Canada 29,697 Malaysia 11,870 Japan 29,264 Nigeria 11,150 Total 335,521 Total non-eu Total 171,246 Grand total Sources: Institute of International Education (2009); HESA Student Record (2008) Australia Education International (2007).

11 Host countries in changing context Major host countries growth rates have slowed down Increasing importance of transnational and online education The length of time students study decreasing Increased popularity of postgraduate courses (up to 1 year) Rise of non-english Speaking host Countries through expanding usage of English as language of instruction (particularly Europe, Middle East) Expanded and improved in-country provision at higher levels Offshore campuses, franchises and collaborative provision partnerships Distinction between sending and hosting countries becoming more blurred: increasingly traditional sending countries are becoming host countries: e.g. China, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore This all points to significantly more competitive markets in the future

12 More competition among national govts Increased presence of national education promotion agencies overseas More universities teaching programmes in English (Netherlands, Germany, France, Sweden, Denmark, Cyprus etc) 12

13 Competition: Sending countries becoming host countries China Japan Malaysia Korea China Indonesia 7541 Japan Republic of Korea China 7310 United State Taiwan 4211 Bangladesh 6517 Vietnam 7310 Malaysia 2156 Pakistan 1956 Indonesia 5652 Vietnam 2119 Nigeria 1813 Total 162,695 Total 117,927 Total 44,390 Source: China Scholarships Council Source: JASSO Source: Ministry of HE, Malaysia

14 And new private competitors Commercial operators with a recruitment and profit focus are challenging the market: Hobsons provide enrolment management, tracking, recruitment solutions for HEIs worldwide Laureate are present in key markets in Asia and the Americas, with partnerships with Universities worldwide (eg Liverpool); and online IBT Group, Study Group etc - substantial numbers through foundation and pre-masters pathways Kaplan now lobbying UK government for university status (and therefore degree awarding powers) The private market is increasingly sophisticated and competitive 14

15 Market Analysis 1: Global Developments British Council & IDP Education said (2003): Global demand 2.1 million; expected to grow at 6% p.a. to 5.8 million by 2020 and 7.2 million by % of growth will be in Asia, equals 70% of total demand; 51% being China and India Emerging markets are: Iran, Morocco, and Turkey Demand from Europe will fall from 32% to 13%, from the Americas from 8% to 4% But... 15

16 Global Trends 1. Uncertainty - In 2004 demand from China fell by 20-30% 2. Increased local capacity China has increased local HE capacity by 4.7 times since Stay at home students: Singapore, China, Malaysia 4. Macro factors Bank crisis and Global economic recession Uneven recovery Terrorism & Security concerns Immigration controls 5. Means that nature of decline in share of big players unpredictable 16

17 And European Developments Bologna Increased degree mobility within Europe Increased competition both for European and non-european students Introduction of tuition fees: Germany, Denmark, NL for non-eea Increase of students with national government grant abroad: Nordic, Dutch (as of next year); encouraging more mobility Top-up fees in UK 17

18 Observations: increasing.. 1. Number of sophisticated players public vs private local vs international country vs country 2. Sophisticated consumers 3. Local delivery TNE and local providers 4. Online, distance and blended provision 5. Competition for international and local students 6. In the context of a volatile economic situation and uneven predictions of recovery All = a more dynamic and unpredictable marketplace 18

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