PC & PP Market Update

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Leo Carter
7 years ago
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1 PC & PP Market Update Media Tech Conference Europe 2012 Hamburg 22/23 May 2012 Martin Wiesweg Director Aromatics Polymers Europe, Middle East and Africa

Polycarbonate Prices Peaked in 2010 and 2011 ~ Euros Per Metric Ton 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Jan-08 Jul-08

2 Polycarbonate Prices Peaked in 2010 and 2011 ~ Euros Per Metric Ton 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 PCB Cash Cost PCB Optical Media Margin PCB Optical Media Market Price 2

3 Polycarbonate Chain Review Structural changes in supply / demand Outlook for prices and margins

4 Crude - Expensive Relatively And Absolutely Dollars Per MMBtu Gas as a% of Crude, BTU Basis 70% Crude (WTI) Natural Gas Gas as % of Crude 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

Global Benzene Prices Very High Cents Per Gallon Dollars Per Metric Ton 450 1,400 400 1,200 350 300

5 Global Benzene Prices Very High Cents Per Gallon Dollars Per Metric Ton 450 1, , , Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Delta Benzene Spot Naphtha

Benzene Dictates Phenol Pricing Cents per Pound Dollars Per Metric Ton 90 2,000 80 1,800 70 1,600 60 1,400 1,200 50 1,000

6 Benzene Dictates Phenol Pricing Cents per Pound Dollars Per Metric Ton 90 2, , , ,400 1, , Jan-09 Aug-09 Mar-10 Oct-10 May-11 Dec-11 Jul-12 0 Delta Phenol Avg Acquisition Benzene contract

7 Polycarbonate Chain Review Feedstock impact Structural changes in supply / demand

8 World 2012 Polycarbonate Demand By Region SE Asia 7% N. America 13% NE Asia 51% S. America 2% W. Europe 14% Indian Subc. 4% Middle East 3% Demand = 3.7 Million Metric Tons C. Europe 3% CIS & Baltics 2%

9 2012 World Polycarbonate Demand Electronics 21% Cons./Sports/ Rec. 3% Medical 3% Packaging 4% Other 8% Sheet/Film 18% Housewares 12% Optical Media 16% Auto (Non- Window) 12% Auto (Window) 2% Demand = 3.7 Million Metric Tons

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 CD-A (Audio) CD-ROM CD-R

10 Optical Media Demand Declining Million Units 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, CD-A (Audio) CD-ROM CD-R (Recordable) Blu-ray DVD DVD-R (Recordable) Blu-ray (Recordable) CD RW

11 World Polycarbonate Demand Forecast Million Metric Tons Sheet/Film Auto (Non-Window) Auto (Window) Optical Media Housewares Electronics Medical Cons./Sports/Rec. Packaging Other

12 Phenomenal Growth in Electronics In India 900 million mobile phone connections in India Mobile penetration now 74% and still growing Other electronic applications also growing very rapidly

13 Engineering Resins in Automobiles A and B pillar covers (PC/ABS, ABS) Interior trim (ABS, PC/ABS) Door Panels (PC/ABS) Instrument panel (PC/ABS, ABS) Center console (ABS, PC/ABS) Panoramic Roof & Roof Modules (PC) Rear windshield glazing (PC) Headlight housings (PC, ABS) Headlight lens (PC) Door Handles (PA, ABS, PC/ABS) Wheel covers (PC/ABS) Air intake manifold PA6,6 Engine Cover (PA6,6) Oil Pan (PA6,6) Front Grille (ABS) Bumper, Bumper with integrated lighting, Fender (PC/ABS, PC/PBT) Side mirror housings (PC/PBT, PC/ASA)

14 Polycarbonate Global Capacity Additions Thousand Metric Tons Northeast Asia Middle East West Europe

New Polycarbonate Projects Kazanorgsintez 65KT 2009 Kazan, Russia MCC/MEP/SINOPEC 60KT 2011 Yanshan, Beijing Mitsubishi 60KT 2010 Kurosaki, Japan Kayan 260KT 2011 Al Jubail, Saudi Arabia

15 New Polycarbonate Projects Kazanorgsintez 65KT 2009 Kazan, Russia MCC/MEP/SINOPEC 60KT 2011 Yanshan, Beijing Mitsubishi 60KT 2010 Kurosaki, Japan Kayan 260KT 2011 Al Jubail, Saudi Arabia Bayer 100KT 2010 Bayer 300KT Caojing, Shanghai Zhenjiang ChiMei 75KT 2012 Jiangsu LingYou Engineering Plastics 80KT 2012, 80KT 2016 Shanghai SINOPEC/SABIC JV 260KT 2015 Tianjin

16 All In China Kazanorgsintez 65KT 2009 Kazan, Russia MCC/MEP/SINOPEC 60KT 2011 Yanshan, Beijing Mitsubishi 60KT 2010 Kurosaki, Japan Kayan 260KT 2011 Al Jubail, Saudi Arabia Bayer 100KT 2010 Bayer 300KT Caojing, Shanghai Zhenjiang ChiMei 75KT 2012 Jiangsu LingYou Engineering Plastics 80KT 2012, 80KT 2016 Shanghai SINOPEC/SABIC JV 260KT 2015 Tianjin

17 Polycarbonate Chain Review Feedstock impact Structural changes in supply / demand Outlook for prices and margins

18 Global Polycarbonate Rates Will Improve Million Metric Tons Operating Rate 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Production Total Capacity Operating Rate 40%

Polycarbonate Margins Recovering Euros Per Metric Ton 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Phenol

19 Polycarbonate Margins Recovering Euros Per Metric Ton 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Phenol Contribution Acetone Contribution ECU Contribution Conversion Costs (Var. + Fixed) PCB Optical Media Market Price PCB Optical Media Margin 19

20 Conclusions PC demand growth for automotive glazing will help offset some optical media reduction Outlook dependent on strength of demand growth from China and India, and rate of increase in new production capacity Supply demand in balance but producer margins at 10 year lows, so expect price increases

21 Polypropylene Versatility vs. Price Martin Wiesweg GSK Polymer Workshop April 11, 2012

22 The Good Old Days Cheap Material Avenue to move excess propylene Versatile Able to replace other products Poor man s engineering polymer Low price and versatility drove growth PP one of the polymers with the highest demand growth rate

In Last Two Years, Cost Position Changed Price Ratio 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.

23 In Last Two Years, Cost Position Changed Price Ratio PP/HDPE North America PP/HDPE West Europe PP/HDPE China

24 Economy & Price Causing PP Demand To Falter Growth, Million Metric Tons 5.0 Cumulative Growth, Million Metric Tons Global Capacity Growth Global Demand Growth Cumulative Global Capacity Growth Cumulative Global Demand Growth

25 Ensuing Oversupply Driving Profitability Down Margin, Cents Per Pound Margin, Dollar Per Metric Ton United States West Europe

26 Consequence: Per Capita Demand To Grow at Slower Pace Than Expected Regional Per Capita Demand, kg/person 25.0 Global Per Capita Demand, kg/person World United States West Europe Northeast Asia South America 4.0

27 Demand Not Expected to Catch Up, Oversupply Conditions to Ensue Excess Capacity, Million Metric Tons Percentage of Global Demand 24% 21% 18% 15% 12% 9% 6% 3% Global Excess Capacity Growth Cumulative Global Excess Capacity Growth Global Excess Capacity as a % of Global Demand 0%

28 Demand Not Expected to Catch Up, Oversupply Conditions to Ensue Excess Capacity, Million Metric Tons Global Operating Rate, % Global Excess Capacity Growth Cumulative Global Excess Capacity Growth Global Operating Rate 76.0

29 China Will Become Increasingly Self Sufficient Domestic Demand, Million Metric Tons 25 Imports as a % of Domestic Demand China Domestic Demand Imports as a % of Domestic Demand 0 29

30 Trade Flows to Change Net Trade 2016 Net Trade (Thousand Metric Tons)

Prices to Converge, But Remain Expensive Price, Cents Per Pound 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 Price, Dollars Per Metric Ton 1,984 1,764

31 Prices to Converge, But Remain Expensive Price, Cents Per Pound Price, Dollars Per Metric Ton 1,984 1,764 1,543 1,323 1, North America Discounted West Europe Discounted China spot

32 Conclusions PP to remain expensive Developing economies will enjoy most of the growth Consumer products/packaging to drive growth Oversupply conditions expected in next two years; benefits Asia Trade to become competitive; trade flows to change Regional price disparities will ease, longer term Short term price to affect demand; versatility to help long term

33 What May Change Outlook Economic Meltdown - China Rapid Increase in Oil Prices Weather issues affecting regional supplies Acceleration of demand destruction in North America

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Aromatics Update. FORO PEMEX Petroquimica 2011. Foro PEMEX Bangkok Petroquimica Junio 2011

Aromatics Update. FORO PEMEX Petroquimica 2011. Foro PEMEX Bangkok Petroquimica Junio 2011 Aromatics Update FORO PEMEX Petroquimica 2011 Alex Lidback Global Business Director Aromatics & Fibers Alidback@cmaiglobal.com 1 281 752 3288 has acquired Foro PEMEX Bangkok Petroquimica Junio 2011 Singapore