Aromatics Update. FORO PEMEX Petroquimica Foro PEMEX Bangkok Petroquimica Junio 2011

Transcription

1 Aromatics Update FORO PEMEX Petroquimica 2011 Alex Lidback Global Business Director Aromatics & Fibers has acquired Foro PEMEX Bangkok Petroquimica Junio 2011 Singapore Shanghai Houston New York London Düsseldorf Dubai

2 IHS Who We Are We are 5,500 people, in 30 countries, speaking 50 languages all working each day to: Serve businesses and all levels of governments worldwide Ranging from 80% of Global Fortune 500 to small businesses Customers in 180 countries Provide comprehensive content, software and expert analysis and forecasts Customers around the world use our products and services to make faster and more confident decisions. Advancing Decisions that Advance the World Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.

3 IHS Capabilities IHS is the leading information company with comprehensive content, insight and expert analysis in key areas shaping today s global business landscape, including: Advancing Decisions that Advance the World 3

4 CMAI: Enhancing Our Country & Industry Forecasting Capability for the Chemical & Petrochemical Industry Country & Industry Forecasting Our Country & Industry Forecasting capability provides consistently accurate forecasts and analysis of the economic, business and investment climates in over 200 countries and over 170 industries to support strategic planning and decision making. The combined products and services of the successful acquisitions of Cambridge Energy Research Associates, Global Insight, SRI Consulting, Harriman Chemsult and Chemical Week and now, CMAI, enhance this capability giving customers access to solutions to navigate the complex business challenges they face every day, all from a single source: IHS. 4

5 CMAI: Enhancing Our Consulting Capability for the Chemical & Petrochemical Industry Consulting Capabilities At IHS, we leverage an unmatched combination of information, insight, and expertise to effect the powerful transformation of data into knowledge and value. Our combined capabilities empower you to solve your greatest strategic and operational challenges. It's what distinguishes IHS Consulting in the global marketplace and provides a greater, lasting value to your organization. The combined products and services of the successful acquisitions of Cambridge Energy Research Associates, Global Insight, SRI Consulting, Jane s, Lloyd s Register Fairplay and now, CMAI, enhance this capability giving customers access to solutions to navigate the complex business challenges they face every day, all from a single source: IHS.

6 Aromatics Topics Aromatics demand growth How much? Where? Drivers? Supply Sources Refineries Olefins units Trade A key component for most aromatics Price Forecast

7 Benzene

8 Where is Benzene Consumed? Others, 3% Nitrobenzene, 8% Maleic Anhyd., 2% Alkylbenzene, 3% Ethylbenzene, 52% 40.7 Million Metric Tons Chlorobenzene, 1% Cumene, 19% Cyclohexane, 11% Middle East, 6% Northeast Asia, 40% West Europe, 20% Southeast Asia, 5% North America, 20% ROW, 6% South America, 2%

9 What Drives Benzene Supply? Toluene Dispro. 1% Pygas/Olefins 40% Selective TDP 4% HDA 5% Toluene Transalk. 5% PXE Co-prod 5% Coke Oven 4% Reformate/ Refinery 36% Olefins production Refinery operations Polyester market Hydrogen/reformer operations Basically, not benzene

10 Lighter & Lighter & Lighter. For NAM Chemical Industry? U.S. Dollars Per MMBtu Gas as % of Crude BTU Basis % % 14 80% % % 4 20% 2 0 0% Crude (WTI) Natural Gas Gas as % of Crude

11 0.30 Benzene Production Per Ton of Ethylene Light Feeds Gas Oil Heavy Naphtha Light Naphtha Normal Butane Propane Ethane

12 North America Benzene Production Suffers Production Index 2005 =

13 What Is a Reformer? Naphtha Refor mer Hydrogen, 3% C1s and C2s, 5% C3s and C4s, 10% Reformate C5s, 4% C6+ Raffinate, 15% BZE, 8% TOL, 14% MXY, 18% C9+ Aromatics, 23%

14 The Effects of MSAT on North Thousand Metric Tons America MSAT Mobile Source Air Toxins Additional benzene enters market in 2010 By 2013, a total of 600 thousand tons Helps offset loss in production How does this affect benzene imports?

15 North America Benzene Production Suffers Production Index 2005 =

16 Benzene Net Trade Million Metric Tons 4.0 Net Exports Net Imports

17 Trade Balances Supply and Demand ,084-1, ,171-1, Thousand Metric Tons

18 Benzene: Elevated Prices Continue Dollars Per Metric Ton 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Cents Per Gallon Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 0 US Benzene Monthly Contract

19 Styrene

20 Where is Styrene Consumed? ABS Resins/SAN Resins 18% Expandable PS 21% S.B. Latex 5% S.B. Rubber 4% Unsat. PE Resins 4% All Others 9% Polystyrene 39% S. America 3% N. America 15% CIS & Baltics 1% Europe 22% SE Asia 5% Africa/Middle East 2% Indian Subc. 2% NE Asia 50% 26.3 Million Metric Tons

21 Styrene Capacity Expansions Million Metric Tons 3.0 Oversupply in Average Demand Expansion Slow Shutdowns Offsetting Capacity Additions Americas Europe Middle East Asia World

22 Simplified Map Of Consolidation CPC Dow BP Nova BASF Spin Off Spin Off Spin Off Americas Styrenics Innovene Styrolution Ineos IneosNova Styron/Trinseo Ineos Styrenics Styrolution

23 Styrene Balances Starting To Improve World Million Metric Tons Operating Rate % % 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% Demand (1.6/3.7) Total Capacity (2.6/1.8) Operating Rate

24 North America Styrene Supply & Demand Million Metric Tons Operating Rate % (% AAGR = 05-10/10-15) Production (-3.9/2.1) Domestic Demand (-4.1/0.4) Total Capacity (-3.9/0.0) Operating Rate 90% 80% 70% 60% 50%

25 Mexico s Styrene Net Imports Thousand Metric Tons

26 U.S. Styrene Prices & Economics Dollars Per Ton 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Prod Cash Cost EB/SM Styrene Price

27 Toluene

28 2011 World Toluene Demand by End Use Gasoline 27% TDI 5% HDA 9% Solvents/Others 18% TDP 2% TA 16% Benzoic Acid 1% STDP/TPX 22% Domestic Demand = 28.9 Million Metric Tons

29 World Toluene Capacity Additions Million Metric Tons Operating Rate, Percent Americas Europe Middle East & Africa Asia Avg. Demand Growth for (08-13) World Avg. Operating Rate

30 Regional Toluene Net Trade Million Metric Tons 1.4 Net Exports Net Imports N. America S. America Europe CIS & Baltics Africa/Middle East Indian Subc. NE Asia SE Asia

31 Mixed Xylenes

32 2011 World Mixed Xylenes Demand by End Use Orthoxylene 8% Metaxylene 1% Solv. & Others 13% Ethylbenzene 0.13% Paraxylene 78% Domestic Demand = 43.4 Million Metric Tons

33 World Mixed Xylenes Capacity Million Metric Tons 5.0 Additions Operating Rate, Percent Americas Europe MDE/AFR Asia Avg. Demand Growth for (10-15) Operating Rate

34 Million Metric Tons 8.0 North America Mixed Xylenes Demand Forecast Operating Rate 100% % Paraxylene (-1.6/3.0) Metaxylene (-3.5/1.5) Orthoxylene (-12.0/1.7) Solv. & Others (-0.5/0.5) Operating Rate 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20%

35 Regional Mixed Xylenes Net Trade Million Metric Tons 2.0 Net Exports Net Imports N. America S. America Europe CIS & Baltics Africa/Middle East Indian Subc. NE Asia SE Asia

36 T & X Price Forecast Cents Per Gallon Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Toluene (Octane Blend Value) Mixed Xylenes - Contract Toluene Commercial Grade

37 Polyethylene Terephthalate End Uses Oriented PET Film 4% Other 3% PET Resin (Rigid Packaging) 31% 16,262 Fiber 62% 33, Total Demand = 54.0 Million Metric Tons

38 Fiber Versus PET Packaging Resin Million Metric Tons Fiber to PET Ratio Fiber PET Packaging Resin Fiber to PET

39 Squeezed Between Oil And Cotton POLYESTER OIL OIL OIL OIL

40 The Cotton Factor Dollars Per Metric Tons 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Cotton Index / Futures Staple Fiber

41 World Polyester Demand Growth By Product Thousand Metric Tons 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, ,000-2, Filament Staple Fiber PET Packaging

42 Global PTA Supply/Demand Million Metric Tons Percent Supply Effective Capacity Demand Operating Rate Effective Operating Rate

43 PTA All Regions Increase Self-sufficiency -1,

44 M&G Currently only PET U.S. 325kt (PTA Supply from CEPSA) Mexico 550kt (PTA Supply from PetroTemex) Brazil 650kt (PTA Supply from PetroTemex) Announcement mid 2014 Location TBA U.S. PET 1,000 kt PTA 1,200 kt to supply all U.S. assets Mexico and Brazil supply to remain from PetroTemex

45 Impacts of M&G (2015 Perspective) Total PET NAM Impact NAM PX Impact NAM PET Growth NAM Non-NAFTA Imports C&SAM Non Americas Imports Total

46 PX Supply Net 320 kts demand increase for region Region will be at 90% OR by 2013 Could likely squeeze an additional 100kt out of domestic production 220 kts shift in NAM net trade from net export to net import from Middle East production Could require more imports if BP/CEPSA/Suncor decide to rationalize. Fewer imports if new U.S. PX player from an existing MX player or new entrant. Fewer imports if BP starts up PX-1 at Decatur on merchant MX.

47 Million Metric Tons Net Exports World Paraxylene Net Trade Net Imports North America South America Europe Africa/Middle East Indian Subcontinent Northeast Asia Southeast Asia

48 Thousand Metric Tons 0 Mexico s PX Net Imports ,000-1,

49 United States PX Prices & Margins Delivered Basis - Direct Plant Fixed Costs Only Dollars Per Metric Ton 2,000 1,500 1, Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Direct Fixed Variable Feedstock PX Contract Margin

50 Aromatics Long Term Outlook Favoring light olefin feedslates should continue to have a negative impact on benzene supplies. Lower refinery runs in North America and West Europe reduces aromatics production tightening supply/demand balances. Polyester demand continues at a healthy pace driven by Asia..mature markets should only see tepid growth. Extensive capacity rationalization and industry consolidation have significantly changed market dynamics. The rapid run up in costs and pricing will keep prices elevated. If prices rise more than currently forecast demand will likely suffer. Forecast high crude oil prices will keep prices of aromatics polymers elevated. Asia has been the driver for demand growth and forecasts suggests this will only continue.