Airbus Global Market Forecast

Transcription

1 Airbus Global Market Forecast Toulouse, December 13 th John Leahy Chief Operating Officer Customers

2 GMF highlights GMF 2010 key numbers and 20-year change World fleet forecast % change RPK (trillion) % Passenger aircraft 14,240 29, % New passenger aircraft deliveries - 24,980 - Dedicated freighters 1,550 3, % New freighter aircraft deliveries Total new aircraft deliveries 25,850 Market value of $3.2 trillion Source: Airbus GMF 2010

3 Air travel has proved to be resilient to external shocks World annual traffic Asian WTC Financial Oil Crisis Oil Crisis Gulf Crisis Crisis AttackSARS Crisis RPK (trillion) %* E Source: ICAO, Airbus * since 2000

4 GDP and passenger traffic development World real GDP and passenger traffic (year-over-year) 8% November Passenger traffic up 6% 7.8% 4% 2% 0% -2% Real & forecast GDP Traffic ASKs -4% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Passenger traffic recovering in-line with GDP Source: IHS Global Insight (November 2010 data), OAG (ASKs data), Airbus

5 Still a two-speed World Real GDP growth (%) 8% 6% 4% History Emerging economies* Forecast 2% 0% Mature economies -2% -4% This is mainly driven by the potential to travel in certain regions Source: IHS Global Insight (November 2010), Airbus * 54 emerging economies

6 All regions are currently growing Passenger traffic (monthly ASKs year-over-year) 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% Traffic up 13.7% Traffic up 5.4% 4.9% -4% -8% United States Western Europe Emerging g Economies* -12% J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N Emerging economies are leading the way Source: OAG (ASKs), * 54 emerging economies, Airbus

7 Yields recovering in all regions Relative yield evolution (base year 2000) 150 % North America Europe Asia-Pacific Q1 Q2 Q Recovery driven by premium traffic Global yields have increased +0.8% pa Source: ATA, AEA, AAPA and airlines data for 2010

8 5.8 billion people will increasingly want to travel by air China India Middle East Asia* Africa CIS Latin America Eastern Europe billion people p 2009 Yearly RPK growth Western Europe North America Japan Australasia 1.0 billion people 2009 * Asia excludes India, China and Japan

9 Impressive airline industry expansion in emerging countries Passenger aircraft over 100 seats operated by airlines Jan 2000 Dec 2010 China Mainland Fleet in service Backlog India Fleet in service Backlog Source: Ascend

10 Growing A380 network especially in Asia-Pacific 40 A380s flying 27 routes to 20 destinations 24,000 revenue flights and over 200,000 flight hours ontreal oronto New York Washington London Manchester Paris Frankfurt Zurich Beijing Seoul Tokyo Los Angeles Jeddah Dubai Bangkok Hong Kong Singapore Airlines Emirates Qantas Air France Lufthansa Additional airline-announced routes for 2011 shown dotted Johannesburg Singapore Sydney Melbourne Auckland O 9 illi h j d th A380 Over 9 million passengers have enjoyed the A380 experience in the first three years

11 Airlines returning to profitability Airline industry EBIT margins (% of revenues) 5.5% 4.0% 2.9% 5.1% 6.3% 34% 3.4% 3.8% North America Europe 0.1% 1.2% 0.0% 0.9% Asia-Pacific -0.1% -1.8% -2.2% -4.7% EBIT: Asian airlines performing well Source: ICAO history / IATA forecast (September 2010)

12 Long term fundamentals will lead to growth World annual traffic 10.0 RPK (trillion) ICAO total traffic Airbus GMF Air traffic has doubled every 15 years Air traffic will double in the next 15 years year world annual traffic growth 4.8% Source: ICAO, Airbus GMF 2010

13 Main drivers for growth Replacement of aircraft in service in mature markets Dynamic growth in emerging markets Continued growth of LCCs, especially in Asia Greater and continued market liberalization Traffic growth on the existing route network where it is more efficient to add capacity than frequency

14 Asia-Pacific airlines will lead world traffic by and 2029 traffic volume per airline domicile region ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 % of 2009 world RPK % of 2029 world RPK Asia-Pacific 2009 traffic 2029 traffic +5.8% 27% 33% Europe +4.1% 28% 25% North America Middle East Latin America +5.5% +6.8% +3.3% 20-year world annual traffic growth 4.8% 28% 6% 5% 20% 9% 6% Africa +5.8% 3% 4% CIS +4.7% RPK (billion) 3% 3% Source: Airbus GMF 2010

15 New aircraft demand will average at 1,300 per year 20-year new deliveries of passenger and freighter aircraft 20,000 New aircraft deliveries 16,000 17,870 12,000 8,000 4,000 4,330 0 % units Single-aisle & Small jet freighters Small-twin aisle & Regional freighters 1,910 1,740 Intermediate twin-aisle & Long range freighters Large aircraft & Large freighters 69% 17% 7% 7% % value 40% 26% 16% 18% Passenger aircraft ( 100 seats) and freighter aircraft (> 10 tons) Source: Airbus GMF 2010

16 New aircraft demand will average at 1,300 per year 20-year new deliveries of passenger and freighter aircraft 20,000 New aircraft deliveries 16,000 12,000 16,980 17,870 GMF 2009 GMF ,000 4,000 4,240 4,330 0 % units Single-aisle & Small jet freighters Small-twin aisle & Regional freighters 2,010 1,910 1,730 1,740 Intermediate twin-aisle & Long range freighters Large aircraft & Large freighters 69% 17% 7% 7% % value 40% 26% 16% 18% Passenger aircraft ( 100 seats) and freighter aircraft (> 10 tons) Source: Airbus GMF 2010

17 20-year demand for over 25,800 new aircraft 20-year new deliveries of passenger and freighter aircraft 17,870 single-aisle aircraft 6,240 twin-aisle aircraft % units 1,740 very large aircraft 69% 17% 7% 7% 40% 26% 16% 18% Passenger aircraft ( 100 seats) and freighter aircraft (> 10 tons) Source: Airbus GMF 2010 Market value of $3.2 trillion

18 In the future there will be a need to mitigate oil price risk Oil price (Current US$ per bbl) 140 History Forecast Source: EIA, IHS Global Insight (November 2010), Airbus

19 Innovation towards greater fuel efficiency Efficiency A30X Game-Changing Solutions A320 + Sharklets Today

20 A320neo to further improve efficiency Sharklets: Over 3.5% fuel burn saving on long sectors Improved field performance New Engine Options* Bypass ratio increased from 5 to 9 ~12 Fan diameter increased from ~64in to up to 81in Lower noise levels 15% lower SFC Maintaining commonality up to 15% fuel burn reduction

21 The case for the A320neo Competes well with all new entrants in the market Minimum change new engine option, maintaining maximum airframe commonality From 2015 to beyond 2025, demand for up Includes the combined benefit to 4,000 A320neo of fsh Sharklets and new engines deliveries (up to15% fuel burn saving) Significant market demand for a significant improvement

22 A320neo will be built on proven experience A320 Family in-service statistics: Total take-offs: Over 50 million Average daily utilisation: 8.7FH (up to 14.5FH) Fleet reliability: 99.7% A320neo will inherit proven values: A320neo will have a high level of systems and avionics commonality with the A320 A320 systems and avionics are proven to be highly reliable only 1 delay per 500 flights Maturity and reliability from day one One A320 take-off or landing every three seconds

23 A320neo benefits summary Keeping the best of the A320 Family with added efficiency A mature Family from EIS with low industrial/technical risk Preserved interoperability and training commonality Solid double digit reduction in fuel burn Significant noise reduction No increase in maintenance cost The best of what we have today with MUCH better fuel burn

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25 Summary A market for more than 25,800 new passenger and freighter aircraft. Neo will be addressing a market of about 18,000 single-aisle passenger aircraft. The twin-aisle i passenger aircraft market will account for more than 5,700 new aircraft deliveries. Some 1,300 very large aircraft to meet passenger demand offering lower cost per seat and more flexibility. The demand for 870 new freighter aircraft deliveries reflects the market needs for highly hl efficient i aircraft to compensate further increasing i fuel price. Strong A380 demand: 32 mega-cities growing to over 80 in 20 years.

26 Airbus Global Market Forecast Toulouse, December 13 th Christopher Emerson Senior Vice President Market & Product Policy

27 Reducing risk through analysis 20 year aircraft demand forecast, aircraft >19 seats Traffic forecast modeling 155 distinct traffic flows Detailed study of network evolution, including new routes, markets and deregulation hot spots Model the impact of evolving airline models e.g. Low Cost Carriers Fleet build-ups covering 938 passenger and 217 freight carriers In use for both Airbus internal and external purposes Regularly updated to reflect market trends and evolution

28 Taking into account key industry drivers Economics Growth Emerging markets Trade Cycles Demographics Population growth Age profiles Middle class Urbanisation Networks Global cities Hubs New routes Deregulation Passengers Ticket price Comfort Origin and destination Connectivity Environment Airlines Fuel Range Fleet mix Business models Environment Aircraft Seats, speed, utilisation Frequency, load factor Range, fleet mix Replacement Environment

29 Growth is accelerated by certain macro factors Recent traffic hot spots Note : non exhaustive map Deregulation Strong rising of middle class Rapid urbanisation LCCs expansion

30 All regions are currently growing Passenger traffic (monthly ASKs year-over-year) 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% Traffic up 13.7% Traffic up 5.4% 4.9% -4% -8% United States Western Europe Emerging g Economies* -12% J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N Emerging economies are leading the way Source: OAG (ASKs), * 54 emerging economies, Airbus

31 Still a two-speed World Real GDP growth (%) 8% 6% 4% History Emerging economies* Forecast 2% 0% Mature economies -2% -4% This is mainly driven by the potential to travel in certain regions Source: IHS Global Insight (November 2010), Airbus * 54 emerging economies

32 5.8 billion people will increasingly want to travel by air China India Middle East Asia* Africa CIS Latin America Eastern Europe billion people p 2009 Yearly RPK growth Western Europe North America Japan Australasia 1 billion people 2009 * Asia excludes India, China and Japan

33 Emerging economies on the edge to strong travel growth Propensity to travel 10 Trips* per capita Bahamas Seychelles Cyprus Macao Maldives Malta New Zealand UAE Singapore Australia St Lucia Barbados Bahrain Hong Kong Spain UK USA Canada Kuwait Fiji Trinidad Greece Finland Puerto Rico Italy Samoa Sweden Mauritius France 1 Oman Austria Cape Verde Latvia Taiwan Brunei Germany Saudi Arabia South Korea Japan Belgium Estonia Netherlands Costa Rica Chile Czech Rep. Israel Jordan Brazil Libya Slovenia Hungary Bolivia Russia Slovakia Mongolia China Uruguay 0.1 Senegal Liberia Angola Swaziland Bangladesh Lesotho Equatorial Guinea Belarus India 0.01 Iraq Chad World average Ireland Denmark Iceland Switzerland Qatar real GDP per capita 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 55,000 * Passengers originating from respective country Note: GDP in US$2005 Source: IATA PaxIS, Global Insight, Airbus

34 Largest 20 traffic flows in and 2029 traffic volume per biggest traffic flow Domestic US Domestic PRC Intra West. Europe US - West. Europe P.R. China - West. Europe South America - West. Europe Asia - West. Europe Middle East - West. Europe Asia - P.R. China Domestic India Intra Asia Central Europe - West. Europe P.R. China - US Indian Sub - Middle East Japan - US Domestic Asia Asia - US Domestic Brazil North Africa - West. Europe Middle East - US 20-year % of 2029 growth world RPK 2009 traffic 2029 traffic 2.2% 11.3% ,000 1, % 3.0% 4.0% 7.1% 5.3% 4.4% 58% 5.8% 7.1% 9.2% 6.3% 4.8% 61% 6.1% 7.1% 6.3% 4.5% 60% 6.0% 5.2% 6.2% 4.5% RPK (billion) 7.1% 20-year world annual traffic growth 8.4% 7.2% 5.9% 2.6% 2.4% 2.4% 23% 2.3% 2.2% 2.2% 2.0% 20% 2.0% 1.9% 1.8% 1.7% 17% 1.7% 1.5% 1.5% 1.4% 1.3% Source: Airbus GMF 2010

35 Map of traffic growth GMF 2010 key numbers and 20-year change AAGR* <2.5% 2.5-4% 4-5.5% 4-5.5% 5.5-7% >7% Source: Airbus GMF 2010

36 Top 20 fastest growing flows until and 2029 traffic volume per fastest growing traffic flow Middle East - South America North Africa - P.R. China Domestic India Middle East - South Africa Africa Sub Sahara - P.R. China Canada - Central America CIS - P.R. China P.R. China - South Africa North Africa - South Africa Africa Sub Sahara - North Africa Africa Sub Sahara - South Africa Canada - Indian Sub Africa Sub Sahara - South America Indian Sub - US P.R. China - Russia Indian da Sub - P.R. China Asia - Indian Sub Africa Sub Sahara - Middle East Middle East - P.R. China Australia/NZ - Middle East traffic 2029 traffic * 20-year annual traffic growth referring to the illustrated 20 traffic flows Source: Airbus GMF year growth 15.2% % of 2029 world RPK 0.5% 9.5% 9.2% 9.1% 0.1% 2.2% 0.4% 8.6% 0.2% 8.5% 0.1% 8.5% 0.1% 83% 8.3% 02% 0.2% 8.3% 0.1% 8.3% 0.2% 8.2% 0.3% 8.5% 81% 8.1% 02% 0.2% 8.1% 0.1% 8.0% 0.4% 7.8% 0.2% 77% 7.7% 02% 0.2% 7.5% 0.8% 7.5% 0.5% RPK (billion) 7.4% 0.3% 7.3% 0.7% 20-year annual traffic growth*

37 Middle East traffic to double by 2017 Level of RPK from/to each city in 2009 and 2029 for Middle East millions millions 1-5 billions >5 billions

38 From traffic growth to aircraft demand The way how the traffic is accommodated in the network has a big impact on the type and the number of aircraft the industry requires Hub & Spoke Hubs are big gpointspure point-to-point p Tendency to Bigger aircraft? Tendency to Smaller aircraft?

39 68% of 2029 traffic volume will be between expanding regions Market share on total traffic, emerging vs. mature traffic flows RPK (trillion) % % 37% 24% 76% 63% 45% Rest of World 32% Traffic within & between USA, Canada, Western Europe and Japan Source: Airbus GMF 2010

40 Traffic will remain concentrated around mega-cities Level of RPK from/to each city in 2009 and Top 500/3300 cities millions millions 1-5 billions >5 billions

41 Strong increase of mega-cities in Asia Level of RPK from/to each city in 2009 and 2029 for Asia millions millions 1-5 billions >5 billions

42 Mega-cities are likely to be hubs (e.g. Hong Kong) Development of passenger numbers on HKG arrival flights from Europe and the Americas Connecting traffic grew twice as fast as nonstop traffic PAX numbers relative to 2005 level (2005 set to 100%) 140% 130% Connecting traffic* 5.8% p.a. Nonstop traffic 2.9% p.a % 110% 100% * Connecting traffic vs. nonstop traffic: e.g. LHR HKG SYD vs. LHR HKG Source: IATA PaxIS (month of September), Airbus

43 Successful airlines driven by hub strategy Attracting passengers to the Hub from a wide range of origin and destination Attracting a wider range of passengers profile (Business, Tourism, VFR, ) Building flexibility to reallocate traffic through the Hub During the crisis the most resilient routes have been: large routes from/to hubs a wide class mix with many connecting pax Lowering seat costs with bigger aircraft at the hub

44 Growth realistically split between frequency and capacity Allocation of traffic growth to flight frequency and aircraft capacity (as function of frequency and distance) Frequency Traffic growth only allocated to capacity increase Traffic growth allocated to frequency and capacity increase Maximum service level Limit of frequency increase Traffic growth only allocated to frequency increase Satisfactory service level Consumer surplus throughh frequency increase only Distance Qualitative model; model quantitatively differentiated according to different traffic regions and traffic flows Source: Airbus GMF 2010

45 Growth in the size and number of mega-cities A A B A Destinations with more than daily long haul pax

46 Aircraft delivered continue to be larger than those they replace Retirement Deliveries Note: Passenger jet aircraft excluding regional types Source: Ascend, Airbus

47 Asia-Pacific airlines to further strengthen their dominant position for new passenger aircraft 20-year new deliveries of passenger aircraft 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8, year total deliveries % of 20-year total deliveries Asia-Pacific deliveries deliveries 8,290 33% Europe 5,710 23% North America 5,610 23% 1,790 Latin America 7% Middle East 1,690 7% Africa 1,050 4% CIS 840 3% Source: Airbus GMF 2010

48 GMF freight forecast methodology Specific methodology for air cargo forecast Regularly updated to reflect market trends and evolution 20 year freighter aircraft demand forecast, payload >10 tons Traffic forecast modeling 144 distinct traffic flows Fleet build-ups ups covering 217 freight carriers Source: Airbus GMF 2010

49 Freight traffic to triple in the next 20 years Freight traffic forecast FTKs (billions) History Forecast AAGR % % World FTKs International Domestic % World FTKs Source: Airbus GMF 2010

50 20-year freighter demand for almost 3,000 aircraft 20-year freighter aircraft demand 1,600 Total aircraft demand 1,400 1,200 New freighters Conversions 150 1, , , Small Jets Regional & Long Range Large Source: Airbus GMF 2010 Small jet freighters: 727, 737, A320P2F, BAe 146, DC-9, Tu-204 ; Regional & long range freighters: 707, 757, , A300, A310, A321P2F, DC-8, DC10-10, A330, , 747 Combi, DC10-30 ; Large freighters: 747F, 777, A350, MD-11, A380

51 New aircraft demand will average at 1,300 per year 20-year new deliveries of passenger and freighter aircraft 20,000 New aircraft deliveries 16,000 17,870 12,000 8,000 4,000 4,330 0 % units Single-aisle & Small jet freighters Small-twin aisle & Regional freighters 1,910 1,740 Intermediate twin-aisle & Long range freighters Large aircraft & Large freighters 69% 17% 7% 7% % value 40% 26% 16% 18% Passenger aircraft ( 100 seats) and freighter aircraft (> 10 tons) Source: Airbus GMF 2010

52 Airbus Global Market Forecast Toulouse, December 13 th