Deep Geothermal Projects in Germany Status and Future Development Dr.-Ing. Horst Kreuter GeoThermal Engineering GmbH

Transcription

1 Energy Deep Geothermal Projects in Germany Status and Future Development Dr.-Ing. Horst Kreuter GeoThermal Engineering GmbH Paris

2 Content I. The Energy World after Fukushima II. III. Opportunities Projects Electricity Heat Research and Development Industry Opportunities Worldwide Risk and Risk Mitigation Exploration Risk Drilling Risks Environmental Risks (Seismicity, )

3 Energy World after Fukushima I M P AC T N u c l e a r o n t h e d o w n s w i n g? G e r m a n y s t o p s 7 o l d p o w e r p l a n t s M o r a t o r i u m f o r 3 m o n t h s T e c h n i c a l c h e c k u p E x i t f r o m n u c l e a r p o w e r u n t i l , , 2 0?? B r i d g e f o r R e n e w a b l e E n e r g i e s O p p o r t u n i t y f o r R e n e w a b l e s a n d G e o t h e r m a l G e o t h e r m a l : B a s e L o a d B e t t e r s u p p o r t o f G e o t h e r m a l E n e r g y E l e c t r i c i t y : R a i s e i n F i T a n d o t h e r s u p p o r t s c h e m e s F o c u s o n H e a t i n g a n d c o o l i n g p r o j e c t s R & D N o t j u s t e l e c t r i c i t y M o r e F u n d s

4 Geothermal Power Production P OWER P L A N T S NEUSTADT-GLEWE 250 KW LANDAU 2,5 3 MW UNTERHACHING 3 MW BRUCHSAL 500 KW Simbach-Braunau 150 KW

5 Regions of Activity

6 Project Development B E R L I N H AN N O V E R G R O ß- G E R AU F R AN K F U R T B R Ü H L R Ü L Z H E I M K AR L S R U H E A L L O F T H E M O L AS S E R E G I O N ( > 2 0 P R O J E C T S) K R E F E L D M U N S T E R- B I S P I N G E N

7 Power Plant Landau

8 Power Plant Unterhaching

9 District Heating Unterhaching

10 Drilling

11 Geothermal Heating Riehen Wärmeverbund Riehen AG

12 R&D Challenges GOALS EFFICIENCY RISK REDUCTION TOPICS EGS PUMPS DRILLING TECHNOLOGY BINARY POWER PLANTS SEISMICITY

13 Geothermal Industry H I S T O R Y ( ) Communities Unterhaching, Neuried, Private Initiatives HotRock GeoEnergy, Today Local Utility Companies Munich, Mainz, Heidelberg, Industry Manufacturers (Siemens, Hochtief, Evonik, Linde, ) Big utilities (RWE, EnBW, )

14 Geothermal Consultants H I S T O R Y ( ) Small (3 10 employees) Highly specialized (deep geothermal applications) GTN, GeoT, GeoTec, Only in Germany Today Big Consulting Companies Lack of Know-How? Going International Europe, Africa, South America, Asia,

15 Future Potential Glitnir Bank, 2008

16 Risk of Energy Generation Nuclear: Tschernobyl, Fukushima Nuclear waste storage? Fossil fuels: global risiks, greenhouse gas, climate change CO 2 -goals? Risks of geothermal and other renewable energies: different risks on a much smaller scale

17 Risk of Renewable Energy Generation Wind: Environmental risk fauna / shadow / view Hydro: Environmental risk massive interference with nature, seismic risk, dam failure Solar: Land requirements, environmental risk during disposal Biomass: Concurring uses: competition with food production & land requirements

18 Risk in Geothermal Applications Relatively risk free technology Clean, renewable, low CO 2 footprint, base load Nevertheless there is some risk Exploration risk Drilling risks Environmental risks Seismic risk

19 Environmental Risks Sustainable resource management Inexhaustible on the human time scale Continuous heat flow from the earth s core Sufficient distance between production- and injection well Sustainable production rate German Environmental Agency (Umweltbundesamt 2008): Environmental Risks and effects are very small in comparison to other energy generation systems Almost no negative ecological impact from the operation of a geothermal power plant Especially heat projects (efficiency)

20 Risk in Geothermal Projects Drilling Risk Lost in hole Blocked string Exploration Risk Temperature Flow Rate Chemistry? Long Term? Technology Hydrothermal Yes EGS (HDR, ) No!

21 Risk High financial risk high Commercial success depends mainly on flow rate risk (failure) low projectdevelopment 1. well 2. well power plant operation Success = defined temperature & production with fixed drawdown of water level Definition on commercial basis

22 Risk in Geothermal Projects Who needs an Insurance? Only one project Small Developers City and Villages Small utility companies Project Portfolio Frame Contract Soultz, Alsace

23 German Experience History Unterhaching (2003) First risk mitigation for geothermal exploration risk in Germany Munich Re One timer Features: Bavarian support and non claim bonus Contract Offer Molasse basin and Upper Rhine Valley North German Basin - not yet Technology Hydrothermal :Yes EGS (HDR, ): No

24 Quality Quality of developer Financial strength Technical ability (know-how, references, ) Quality of development Project description Geology Drilling concept Stimulation program and test program Power plant concept (permissions, contracts,??) Permissions for drilling, etc. Contractors and key personal Business plan and insurance Third party opinion (exploration risk)

25 Private Insurance Market Definition of success or failure Exploration risk = risk, not to be able to exploit a resource in sufficient quantity or quality Quantity = Thermal output P which can be extracted from the brine P = ρ F c F Q (T i T o ) The amount of P is important. The combination of the parameters is less important. Covering P instead of fixed pairs of parameters gives the insurance company a higher flexibility and a lower premium

26 Private Insurance Market Insurable? Feasibility study Intensive dialog Stimulation and test concept Seismic exploration Well design Exploitation concept Drilling concept

27 Private Insurance Market Precondition: High Probability of Success Premium Basis: Insurance Parameters, Own Risk Share Insurance contract Total insured investment costs: - drilling, stimulation, test program - (seismic, drilling pad, ) Integral Part of Policy: Stimulation Concept, Hydraulic Test Layout

28 Drilling Risks Technical problems while drilling Unexpected geological conditions Lost in hole Time overruns (fishing) Can be insured In a conventional builder s risk insurance as an additional coverage In Government risk coverage programs (MAP Germany)

29 Seismic Risk Induced seismic events in Basel (2006) and Landau (2009) a topic to be taken seriously EGS-projects (Basel, injection well in Landau) stimulated geothermal systems Hydraulic stimulation to build an artificial underground reservoir Change of natural stress conditions

30 Seismic Risk Risk management Seismic risik analyses Well controlled reservoir development and management Seismic monitoring Action plan Liability insurance

31 Seismic Risk Risk communication Fear of earthquakes Danger of overestimating the risk Relatively low magnitudes relative low damage potential Risk = probability x damage Mining vs. EGS-projects Year / Time Project Maximal magnitude (M L ) GeneSys (Horstberg), No measured events Deutschland Fenton Hill (Los Alamos), USA ~ Bad Urach, Deutschland 1, Rosemanowes, England 1,9* Hijiori, Japan 2,4* 2003 Soultz-sous-Forêts, Frankreich 2, Basel, Schweiz 3, Cooper Basin, Australien 3,7

32 Environmental Risk Mining authorities protects the interests of residents and the environment Drilling Oil standards Well established technology Blow-out-preventer avoids oil spills Restrictions in water and nature protection areas Operation Safety precautions prevent environmental hazards Closed cycles Radioactivity Radioactive elements dissolved in the geothermal brine Avoid scaling in filters and pipes overpressure Health and safety protection: Measurements and controls Special radioactive waste disposal path

33 Communication Project Communication: early, continuous and transparent Local acceptance is important for project success! Public relations Addressee: public, local and regional authorities, political decision makers Supporters: keep positive attitude, get their support Opponents: Take them serious and reduce their fears Successful communication especially when these conditions are met: Heat projects with a direct benefit for local residents City or city utility as project developer Decentralized power and heat production in a 100% renewable concept

34 Soultz, Alsace THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION! Dr. Horst Kreuter Paris