Perspective on Geothermal Energy in Japan: Beyond Great East Japan Earthquake & Beyond Brittle Project

Transcription

1 Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation 2013 Perspective on Geothermal Energy in Japan: Beyond Great East Japan Earthquake & Beyond Brittle Project Noriyoshi TSUCHIYA Graduate School of Environmental Studies Tohoku University 環 境 科 学 研 究 科 東 北 大 学

2 :46 (Japan Time) Great East Japan Earthquake & Tsunami M. 9.0

3 Destroyed Train

4 After Tsumani

5

6 3.11 : Tohoku University

7 Coach on the roof

8 Fishing Boat on the road

9 Distribution of Volcano We are here Distribution of Volcano

10 Geothermal Potential Japan is 3 rd country Active Volcano Geothermal Potential [MW] USA ,000 Indonesia ,790 Japan ,470 Philippine 47 6,000 Mexico 39 6,000 Iceland 33 5,800 New Zealand 20 3,650 Italy 13 3,270 Stefansson (2005) Geothermal potential [MW] Japan Active volcano

11 Geothermal Development in the World JAPAN Geothermal fever 11 (Lund et al., 2010)

12 Lost Decade In Geothermal R&D In JAPAN 20,000 18,000 16,000 第 二 次 石 油 危 機 NEDO 発 足 電 源 立 地 勘 定 債 務 保 証 新 エネから 除 外 地 熱 技 術 開 発 Last geothermal power plant was only 3.3 MW in remote island since ,000 12,000 10,000 第 一 次 石 油 危 機 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, 予 算 ( 百 万 円 単 位 ) サンシャイン 計 画 発 足 地 熱 発 電 開 発 費 補 助 金 地 熱 開 発 促 進 調 査 費 補 助 金 地 熱 技 術 開 RPSから 地 新 エ ネ 導 入 促 進 委 託 費 地 熱 技 術 開 発 費 年 度

13 Turbine in geothermal power plant (after 2000) was Made in Japan Single flush USA France Others Italy Japan No new domestic geothermal power plants after 1999, but 70% market of single flush type is occupied by three Japanese companies. Binary Israel (Bertani, 2008)

14 R&D budget for geothermal per capita Japan is out of the figure! Japan (IEA, 2011 Technology Roadmap on Geothermal Heat and Power)

15 Tohoku University (Sendai) No. 1 Reactor No. 2 Reactor No. 3 No. 4 Reactor Fukushima-Daiichi Reactor Nuclear P.S

16 Drastic Change after 3.11! Even now, more than 100,000 people cannot come back to their own home. WHO reported (Nov 2012) there is no statistic increase of cancer due to low level nuclear radiation in generally, BUT some amounts of increase can be estimated for thyroid cancer of children (not clear still now) Geothermal is most promising sustainable and safety energy.

17 Tohoku (Northeast Japan) 東 北 Annual total duration of Sunshine Distribution of Hydrothermal potential more than 53

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19 Yes!, no CO2 emission from nuclear reactor, but we know serious emission comes out! Hydro nuclear geothermal Wave Wind Solar (PV) Tidal OTEC: Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion OTEC Solar (thermal) LPG CO2 emission CO2 emission per 1 kwh petroleum coal

20 世 Geothermal 界 の 地 熱 発 Power 電 所 Plant in the world GPP is not only active continental margin, Granite is heat source. Cooper Basin Hot Dry Rock

21 Electricity Direct Use USA Philippine Indonesia Mexico Italy China USA Sweden Turkey JAPAN Iceland New Zealand JAPAN Kenya El salvador Electricity Norway Iceland France Germany Holland countries 67.2 (78 countries) 438 GWe GWth WGC 2010

22 Conventional geothermal resources 43% in Tohoku 熱 水 対 流 系 地 熱 資 源 Liquid dominated Geothermal Resources 九 州 北 部 11% Central 関 東 甲 Japan 信 越 13% 山 陰 1% San-in North Kyushu West Hokkaido 道 西 17% 道 東 22% East Hokkaido 九 州 南 部 3% South Kyushu North 東 北 Tohoku 北 部 21% 東 South 北 南 部 Tohoku 6% 6% Middle 東 北 Tohoku 中 部 6% 6%

23 Exploration of Geothermal Resources Of course, we need heat! Carrier of heat is fluid Fluid pathway is Fracture

24 Heat Source Modified after Yano et al. (1999)

25 Geothermal Fluid Chemical Reactions Dissolution Precipitation Equilibrium Kinetics State of Equation..

26 Fracture Fluid flow through Preference (Channeling) Flow 3D model Normalized flow rate Tortuous Fluid channel flow flow Log [Flow rate (mm 3 /sec)]

27 八 丁 原 地 熱 発 電 所 Hacchobaru GPP in Kyushu

28 Italy NZ USA El Salvador Philippine Japan Japan: Area is small, but density is great. (maybe Chinese Taipei is the same setting.)

29 Not so large, but so many Moderate size based on geology: MWe Caldera Structure 吉 田 ら(2005)

30 Geothermal Energy Issues Geothermal Energy Politics

31 Principal Four Issues High Cost Very long lead time (10-15 years), and high risk development due to uncertain of subsurface National Park 82 % of Geothermal Resources is in National Park Coexistence with ONSEN (hot spring) ONSEN owners do not necessarily like side-effects (worth case: decrease or worst case: exhaust of hot water) Induced Seismicity Scientifically uncertain problems, and Japanese people is now very sensitive in terms of earthquake and seismic

32 Principal Four Issues High Cost National Park Onsen Induced Seismicity

33 High Cost 固 定 価 格 買 取 制 度 FIT: Feed-in Tariff JPY/1 kwh NT$ / 1kWh Duration PV < 10 kw yr 10 kw yr Wind < 20 kw yr 20 KW yr Geothermal < 15 MW yr 15MW yr small scale Hydro < 200 kw yr kw yr ,000 kw yr Biomass several resources yr 1 NTD = 3.2 JPY

34 National Park Ministry of Environment permitted geothermal development in National Park after 3.11 国 立 公 園 問 題 National park 1.5 km Incline drilling from outside of national park and/or Small scale (<3 MW) plant is available.

35 We love ONSEN( 温 泉 )

36 Coexistence with ONSEN (hot spring) ONSEN power generation ( kw): powered by low temperature (< 100 ) hot water RichStone ONSEN owners have economical benefit (save energy and save money) 地 熱 井 井 温 泉 Science base assessment 天 水 帽 岩 うすい NaC l 酸 性 SO4 水 蒸 気 単 純 型 伝 導 熱 無 関 係 型 NaCl 熱 水

37 Principal Four Issues High Feed-In Cost Tariff National Park Environmentally Friendly Techniques Onsen Several activities Induced New Research Seismicity Needed

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39 JBBP Japan Beyond Brittle Project

40 EGS Injection 注 well 入 井 Production 生 産 井 well Enhanced Geothermal System Deeper and Hotter with economically reliability

41 The well WD-1a Drilling over the boundary of hydrothermal-convection zone and heat conduction zone (380 ºC, 24 MPa)

42 Permeability gap in the Earth s s crust Drilling data Calculated data (Ikeuchi et al., 1998) (Saishu et al., 2013) 熱 水 対 流 域 熱 伝 導 域 熱 伝 導 域 Lower Limit of Meteoric Water Upper Limit of Magmatic water

43 Classical Definition of B-BDT-D STRENGTH BRITTLE BDT Kohlstedt (1980), Kirby (1980) Beyree s Friction Law Plastic Fluid Flow Curve DEPTH DUCTILE

44 ~ Geothermal Frontier Hydrothermal convection Brittle Mechanics subcritical Geofluid Can Estimate and Monitor Fluid Flow? Heat conductive Beyond Brittle supercritical FRONTIER Beyond Brittle Can Drill? How WRI? How Fracture Creat?

45 Beyond Brittle Estimated future High enthalpy (High energy extraction) Weal water-rock rock Interaction (Prohibit silica scale ) Universal Design (Site independent design) Low Risk for Induced Seismicity (Ductile Rock Mass) Drastic change of silica solubility in supercritical condition ( C) Aseismic zone due to ductile behavior High geotherm Island Arc and subduction zone Quartz solubility Temperature ( ) Founier and Potter (1982)

46 Estimated Fractures in Beyond Brittle HydroFracking Hydraulic fracturing Sheared stress Single fracture Energy Extraction: Low Great Sheared Fracture: High Risk for Induced Seismicity Thermal Stress Energy Extraction: High Small Extensional Fracture Low Risk for Induced Seismicity

47 12-17 March 2013 Tohoku University International Continental Drilling Program Japan Beyond Brittle Project Science Technology Int l Relation

48 EGS: Enhanced or Engineered Geothermal System Deep structure of Volcano FRONTIER Beyond Brittle Mechanisms of Earthquake

49 150 Deeper Extension of Deep-Seated G.R. Type 1 Fracture Type 2 Cloud High Performance & Sustainability Low Silica Scale Cost effective Realistic Isolated Fracture Cloud in Ductile Rock Mass High Enthalpy Universal Design Low Risk for Induced Seismicity Deep far from Onsen Science Dream Hydrothermal Undeveloped HT hydrothermal Thermal convection / conduction and Silica solubility transition JBBP Reservoir (Type-1) Approx Beyond Brittle JBBP Reservoir (Type-2) 500

50 Geo thermal Highly candidate for sustainable (safety) energy in Japan

51 第 四 紀 火 山 ホットフィンガー 中 新 世 後 期 から 鮮 進 世 火 山

52 日 本 の 地 熱 地 質 の 特 徴 高 温 である 地 質 単 元 が 比 較 的 小 さいが, 地 熱 地 帯 は 数 多 くある 既 存 地 熱 発 電 所 の 熱 水 を 利 用 ( 平 均 250 ) 深 度 m ( 平 均 1500 m) Beyond Brittle 350 以 上 を 使 う 商 業 井 戸 はない 地 熱 貯 留 層 き 裂 流 体 熱 地 熱 フロンティア 超 臨 界 領 域 (374,22MPa) 深 度 m 力 学 的 には, 脆 性 領 域 (Brittle)から 延 性 (Ductile)へ 遷 移 BDT: Brittle Ductile Transition フロンティアはBeyond Brittle ( 脆 性 の 向 こう 側 ) Beyond Brittle