Global crude oil demand, refinery capacity and main World oil flows in the last decade
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1 Global crude oil demand, refinery capacity and main World oil flows in the last decade I. Billege and B. Jambrošiæ REVIEW The article describes intensity of global crude oil demand during the last decade, volumes of refined products processed in available refinery capacities and volumes of crude transported by sea between places of crude production and its consumption as an indicator of the share of this important primary energy source in total exchange of goods. The data are presented on the world maps by region in order to provide better overview and to make the relationships more transparent. The data are updated according to the comprehensive 2010 balances and include historical data from 2000 and 2005 to reflect trends in all significant world oil regions. Key words: global oil demand, refinery capacity, world flow of oil TOTAL GLOBAL OIL DEMAND IN 2000, 2005 AND 2010 Total global demand figures comprise all commercial types of crude presented in demand and refinery balances (excluding refining of secondary feedstock). Data on global demand (figures 1,2,3,4,5,6) are presented both in metric system (million tonnes) and in barrels/day so as to ensure easier comparison for readers in both systems (M t/y or mil t/y) and (M bbl/day or mil bbl/d). Fig. 1. Global oil demand by region 2000, Mt/y Sl. 1. Ukupna potrošnja nafte u svijetu 2000., milijuna t/god NAFTA 62 (5-6) (2011) 181
2 I. BILLEGE AND B. JAMBROŠIÆ GLOBAL CRUDE OIL DEMAND, REFINERY... Fig. 2. Global oil demand by region 2000, Mbbl/d Sl. 2. Ukupna potrošnja nafte u svijetu 2000., milijuna bbl/d Fig. 3. Global oil demand by region 2005, Mt/y Sl. 3. Ukupna potrošnja nafte u svijetu 2005., milijuna t/god 182 NAFTA 62 (5-6) (2011)
3 GLOBAL CRUDE OIL DEMAND, REFINERY... I. BILLEGE AND B. JAMBROŠIÆ Fig. 4. Global oil demand by region 2005, Mbbl/d Sl. 4. Ukupna potrošnja nafte u svijetu 2005., milijuna bbl/d Fig. 5. Global oil demand by region 2010, Mt/y Sl. 5. Ukupna potrošnja nafte u svijetu 2010., milijuna t/god NAFTA 62 (5-6) (2011) 183
4 I. BILLEGE AND B. JAMBROŠIÆ GLOBAL CRUDE OIL DEMAND, REFINERY... Fig. 6. Global oil demand by region 2010, Mbbl/d Sl. 6. Ukupna potrošnja nafte u svijetu 2010., milijuna bbl/d The text that follows brings table presentation of world oil consumption typical in 2000, 2005 and 2010 (tables 1,2), again both in million tonnes per year (Mt/y) and million barrels per day (Mbbl/d). In the last 5 years total world oil consumption grew by 4,4%. Latin America had high growth rate of 25,6% while China had even higher growth of 42,3%, Middle East 22%, former USSR 12,9% and Africa 12%, but some regions had a decline in consumption: Europe -11,5%, Pacific -9,7 % and North America -6%. WORLD REFINING IN 2000 and 2010 Total refining comprises processing in about 700 refineries with capacities presented in the figures 7,8,9,10, that follow by region, both in metric system in million tonnes per year (mil t/y or Mt/y) and in million barrels per day (mil bbl/d or Mbbl/d) in 2000 and The text that follows brings table presentation of world refinery capacities in 2000 and 2010 (tables 3,4), both in million tonnes per year (mil t/y or Mt/y) and million barrels per day (mil bbl/d or Mbbl/d). Table 1. World Oil Consumption 2000, 2005, 2010 Table 2. World Oil Consumption 2000, 2005, 2010 World region Oil Consumption in Mt/y World region Oil Consumption in Mbbl/d North America Latin America Europe Former USSR Middle East Africa China Other Asia Pacific Total North America Latin America Europe Former USSR Middle East Africa China Other Asia Pacific TOTAL NAFTA 62 (5-6) (2011)
5 GLOBAL CRUDE OIL DEMAND, REFINERY... I. BILLEGE AND B. JAMBROŠIÆ Fig. 7. World refinery capacities by region 2000, Mt/y Sl. 7. Rafinerijski kapaciteti u svijetu po regijama 2000., milijuna t/god. Fig. 8. World refinery capacities by region 2000, M bbl/y Sl. 8. Rafinerijski kapaciteti u svijetu po regijama 2000., milijuna bbl/god. NAFTA 62 (5-6) (2011) 185
6 I. BILLEGE AND B. JAMBROŠIÆ GLOBAL CRUDE OIL DEMAND, REFINERY... Fig. 9. World refinery capacities by region 2010, Mt/y Sl. 9. Rafinerijski kapaciteti u svijetu po regijama 2010., milijuna t/god. Fig.10. World refinery capacities by region 2010, Mbbl/y Sl. 10. Rafinerijski kapaciteti u svijetu po regijama 2010., milijuna bbl/god. 186 NAFTA 62 (5-6) (2011)
7 GLOBAL CRUDE OIL DEMAND, REFINERY... I. BILLEGE AND B. JAMBROŠIÆ Table 3. World Refinery Capacitities, 2000 and 2010 Table 4. World Refinery Capacitities, 2000 and 2010 World region Refinery capacity Mt/y World region Refinery capacity Mbbl/d North America Latin America Europe Former USSR Middle East Africa Asia, Pacific, Australia TOTAL World region Latin America Europe Former USSR Middle East Africa Asia, Pacific, Australia TOTAL In the last decade, the world refinery capacity increased by 15%. North and Latin America had relatively modest growth of 4% while Europe had a decline of 4,5%. Other world regions had rather high growth of refinery capacity above average 15%, with highest growth in Middle East thanks to intensive construction of primary and secondary refining and petrochemical industry. SEA AND LAND TRANSPORT ROUTES WORLD FLOW OF CRUDE OIL IN 2005 AND 2010 Main world oil flows comprise commercially available types of oil that are surplus in some regions of the world and are distributed to the regions and countries that have deficit (figures 11, 12). The direction of transport routes from their start in certain region to the point of distribution are illustrated by typical colours and the width of arrow on the world map indicates the volume of transported oil. Respective numerical values denoting intensity of transport are expressed in million tonnes per year (mil t/year or Mt/y) and are marked in the same colour as arrows (routes). The arrows, i.e. routes on the map cover over 93% of total world flow, while somewhat less than 7% of the flow is not included due to the lack of regional data (about 146 Fig. 11. Main world oil flows 2005, Mt/y Sl. 11. Glavne svjetske rute nafte 2005., milijuna t/god. NAFTA 62 (5-6) (2011) 187
8 I. BILLEGE AND B. JAMBROŠIÆ GLOBAL CRUDE OIL DEMAND, REFINERY... Fig. 12. Main world oil flows 2010, Mt/y Sl. 12. Glavne svjetske rute nafte 2010., milijuna t/god. million t/y or 146 Mt/y) which are not balanced for the concrete region but only on global level. It can be concluded that out of million t/year of world oil production only 44.3% or million t/year were distributed from oil rich regions to those with oil deficit. The highest export of oil comes from the Middle East OPEC countries which in 2010 accounted for 48.3% of total export ( million t/year), then follows Russia with 12.9%, Norway 8.6%, North African OPEC countries 7.1, Nigeria (also OPEC member) 6.3%, Canada 5.7%, Venezuela (OPEC member) 5.5%, Mexico 4.2% and Indonesia (OPEC member) 1.4%. The largest import of oil goes to Europe which in 2010 accounted for 36.0% of world import, then Asia Pacific 31.3%, USA 28.5%, Africa 1.6%, Latin America 2.5% and Australia 0.1%. REFERENCES energyforumonline.com/?p= =0-AEO2011&table=1-AEO2011®ion=0-0&cases=ref2011-d120810c und.html Authors: Ivica Billege, MSc, Deputy Editor-in-Chief of "Nafta" Journal, Zagreb Bogumir Jambrošiæ, grad. eng., Technical editor of "Nafta" Journal, Zagreb 188 NAFTA 62 (5-6) (2011)
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