Sponda CMD 21 September Penna Urrila Senior Economist Confederation of Finnish Industries EK

Transcription

1 Finnish Lisää tähän Economy otsikko on the Road to Recovery? Sponda CMD 21 September 2 Penna Urrila Senior Economist Confederation of Finnish Industries EK

2 Main Topics 1. Short-term Outlook for Finland How has the crisis affected Finland? Export prospects GDP forecasts 2. Telecom Sector Still a Driver of the Economy? 3. Some Figures of the Construction Market pp.kk.vvvv 2 Tekijä

3 Short-term Outlook for Finland

4 World Trade and World GDP Annual change, % World trade World GDP Source: IMF 1/ /kokn9/jka/EKI Talousgraafit

5 The Significance of Foreign Trade and Industry 5 45 % of GDP 4 Exports 35 3 Imports 25 Industry Source: Statistics Finland /raktuovie/jka/EKI Talousgraafit

6 Exports and imports of goods Bill. EUR, sa., 3-month mav Exports % Imports Source: Board of Customs /vitu2/jka/EKI Talousgraafit

7 Finnish exports of goods by country month moving total, bill. eur Sw eden Germany United Kingdom USA 2 1 Russia Source: Board of Customs /vien1/jka/EKI Talousgraafit

8 Finnish Exports of Goods by Country billion euro Share of Goods Exports, % Sweden 9.8 Germany.3 Other countries 2.6 Russia 9. USA 7.8 Netherlands 5.8 United Kingdom 5.2 China 4.1 Ukraine.7 Canada 1. Turkey 1.1 Switzerland 1.2 Japan 1.6 Denmark 1.9 Estonia 2. Spain 2.3 Belgium 2.7 Norway 3. Poland Italy 3. France Source: Board of Customs /rakvie4/jka/EKI Talousgraafit

9 -8, % pp.kk.vvvv 9 Tekijä

10 Euro in US Dollars Central rate, ECU-basket Depreciation of the Euro is giving additional support for Finnish exports Source: Bank of Finland 2.9.2/valu5/jka/EKI Talousgraafit

11 Value of One Euro in Swedish Kronor Central rate Source: Bank of Finland /valu2/jka/EKI Talousgraafit

12 Bleached Pulp 9 USD/ton Some Finnish industries are experiencing quite a strong cyclical recovery Source: HWWA /hwwa3/jka/EKI Talousgraafit

13 Business Outlook 4 3 Balance Manufacturing Construction Services Some moderation of growth after current pick-up is expected but still relatively favourable short-term outlook (until Q4/2 Q1/211) Source: Business survey /suhd1/jka/EKI Talousgraafit

14 Vuoden GDP 2 Forecasts BKT-ennusteet for 2 Pellervon taloustutkimus (PTT) Bank of Finland Elinkeinoelämän tutkimuslaitos (ETLA) Handelsbanken Aktia Tapiola Pankki OP-Pohjola consensus ~ 3 % Nordea Palkansaajien tutkimuslaitos (PT) Ministry of Finance (VM).9.2 Sampo Pankki ,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 4 pp.kk.vvvv 14 Tekijä

15 GDP Forecasts for 211 Vuoden 211 BKT-ennusteet Pellervon taloustutkimus (PTT) Bank of Finland Elinkeinoelämän tutkimuslaitos (ETLA) Handelsbanken Aktia Tapiola Pankki consensus % OP-Pohjola Nordea Palkansaajien tutkimuslaitos (PT) Ministry of Finance (VM).9.2 Sampo Pankki ,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 4 4,5 pp.kk.vvvv 15 Tekijä

16 Unemployment Rate* *Seasonally adjusted Finland consensus in 28 29: unemployment will increase to ~ 12 % in EU USA 2 Japan Source: OECD /tyot4/jka/EKI Talousgraafit

17 Telecom Sector Still a Driver of the Economy?

18 Manuf. of electrical and electronic products Vol.index 2=, w ork day corr. and sa. Growth contribution of the electronics industry Manuf. of electrical and electronic products Industry Source: Statistics Finland /teol6/jka/EKI Talousgraafit

19 Finnish Exports of Goods by Branch Share of Goods Exports, % Wood and wood products Pulp, paper and paper products Metals and metal products Machinery, equipment and vehicles In 196 metals and metal products includes machinery and electronics etc. Electronics and electrotechnics Oil, chemicals and chemical products etc. Other products Source: Board of Customs /rakvie3/jka/EKI Talousgraafit

20 Research and Development Expenditure in Finnish Electronics Industry EUR million Source: Statistics Finland pp.kk.vvvv 2 Tekijä

21 Share of Electronics Industry in Finnish R&D Expenditure % of total manufacturing % of total economy Source: Statistics Finland 21

22 Some Perspectives on the Construction Market

23 Finnish Consum er Confidence Indicator 25 2 Balance Sudden drop in consumer confidence Demand for housing and residential construction affected Very rapid (but temporary) reaction by constructors Source: Statistics Finland /kuli2/jka/EKI Talousgraafit

24 Finnish Consumer's Expectations 12 Months Ahead 4 3 Balance 2 Own financial situation Finland's economic situation Unemployment -4-5 Consumer survey Source: Statistics Finland /kuli4/jka/EKI Talousgraafit

25 Real Price Index of Dwellings in Old Blocks of Flats, 1985= Greater Helsinki Whole Country 12 8 Low interest rates, relatively stable labour market! Source: Statistics Finland /ashin1/jka/EKI Talousgraafit

26 3-Month Market Rates, % Finland 8 6 USA 4 2 Japan Germany Source: OECD /kork2/jka/EKI Talousgraafit

27 Total Construction Volume 8 mill. m Permits Starts Forecast Source: Statistics Finland, RT pp.kk.vvvv 27 Tekijä

28 Residential Construction Volume 2 mill. m Permits Starts Completions Forecast Source: 28 Statistics Finland, RT

29 Commercial Buildings mill. m Source: Statistics Finland, RT Permits Starts Completions Forecast pp.kk.vvvv 29 Tekijä

30 Public Buildings 5 mill. m Source: Statistics Finland, RT Permits Starts Completions Forecast pp.kk.vvvv 3 Tekijä

31 Industrial and Warehouse Buildings mill. m Source: Statistics Finland, RT Permits Starts Completions Forecast pp.kk.vvvv 31 Tekijä