Seminário de Economia Portuguesa

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1 Seminário de Economia Portuguesa João Amador Evolução da Economia Portuguesa Fontes: INE, Banco de Portugal e Comissão Europeia Ano Lectivo 25-26

2 Grau de Abertura (X+M)/(2*GDP) 4 Degree of Openess (constant prices of 1995) EU In percentage EFTA

3 PIB per capita (ajustado PPP) GDP per capita as a percentage of EU (PPP corrected, break) 75 7 In percentage

4 PIB per capita (ajustado PPP) GDP per capita as a percentage of EU (PPP corrected) In percentage Portugal Greece Spain Ireland

5 Preço do petróleo 6 Brent Price in USD

6 PIB e Desemprego 12 GDP real growth rate in Portugal 12 Unemployment rate in Portugal 8 1 Percentage Percentage Portugal EU 15 Portugal UE 15

7 Inflação e taxa de Juro 35 Inflation and Interest Rate 3 25 Percentage Interest rate (loans, + 5 years, to households) Inflation

8 Taxa de câmbio Escudo Exchange Rate against the DM Rate of change 5 4 Percentage

9 Saldo orçamental General Government Balance (ESA95) 6 3 Percentage

10 Investimento e poupança 45 Investment, Domestic Savings and the Current Account (in percentage of GDP) 35 Investiment In percentage of GDP Current Account + Capital Account Current Account = (-) External savings Domestic savings Note:Series break in 1995 Source: "Long Series for the Portuguese Economy" - Banco de Portugal National Accounts, National Statistical Institute 24 Estimates of Banco de Portugal

11 Comércio intra-ue 85. Intra EU trade (Percentage of total) 8. Percentage Imports Exports

12 Principais parceiros comerciais Main export partners in 21 Main import partners in In percentage In percentage Intra - EU15 (79.7%) Extra - EU15 (2.3%) Germany (19.1%) Spain (18.6%) France (12.6%) UK (1.2%) Intra - EU15 (74.2%) Extra - EU15 (25.8%) Spain (26.5%) Germany (13.9%) France (1.3%) Italy (6.7%)

13 Parceiros comerciais 3. Intra EU Merchandise Imports - Breakdown by Origin Share of total imports 25. In percentage France Germany Italy United Kingdom Spain other EU countries Source: INE and Direcçáo-Geral das Relações Económicas Internacionais.

14 Parceiros comerciais 25. Intra EU Merchandise Exports - Breakdown by Destination Share of total exports 2. In percentage France Germany Italy United Kingdom Spain Other EU countries Source: INE and Direcçáo-Geral das Relações Económicas Internacionais.

15 Padrão de comércio 25. Main exports 25. Main imports Percentage Percentage Machinery and equipment (19.9%) Automobile (15.4%) Wood, cork and paper (1.1%) Textile, (9.3%) Clothing (9.2%) Agriculture, food, beverages and tobacco (7.3%) Machinery and equipment (22.6%) Automobile (14.9%) Agriculture, food, beverages and tobacco (12.8%) Chemica, rubber and plastic (12.7%)l Non-metallic mineral products and metallurgy (9.5%) Textiles, clothing and leather (8.6%)

16 Padrão de comércio in percentage Merchandise Exports - Breakdown by Products Other (a) Wood, cork and paper Clothing and footwear Machinery Transport material Skins, leathers and textiles Source: Direcção-Geral das Relações Económicas Internacionais. (a) Includes agricultural products and foodstuffs, energy, chemical, minerals and metals and miscellaneous finished goods.

17 Padrão de comércio 35 Merchandise Imports - Breakdown by Products 3 Weight on Total (%) Agriculture and foodstuffs Machinery Other (a) Energy Transport Material Textiles, Clothing and Footwear Source: National Institute of Statistics. (a) Includes Chemical, Hides, Wood, Cork and Paper, Minerals and Metals, and Miscellaneous Finished Goods.

18 IDE Current plus capital account balance and net FDI flows 8, Percentage of GDP 4,, -4, -8, -12, FDI (B) Current plus capital account balance (A) A+B

19 Estrutura da produção 16 Structure of Production (GVA) 12 Percentage 8 4 Machinery and Transport Material Textiles and Footwear Food, Beverages and Tobacco Electricity, water and gas Construction Transports Hotels and restaurants Agriculture Forestry Fisheries Wood and Paper Chemical and Oil Non-metallic mineral products Trade and repairs Financial Communications services exc insurance Insurance

20 Crescimento do PIB Percentage Real GDP growth in Portugal and the euro area Portugal Euro area Source: AMECO

21 Inflação 16 HCPI differential Portugal - euro area 12 Percentage points 8 4 Goods Services Total exc. energy and non-processed

22 Desemprego 12 1 Unemployment rate Euro Area Percentage Portugal Source: AMECO for Euro Area and Banco de Portugal (series break in 1998)

23 Saldo Orçamental 6, Underlying fiscal position in Portugal Percentage of GDP 3,, -3, -6, -9, -12, Cyclically adjusted primary balance exc. temporary measures Overall balance excluding temporary meausres

24 Saldo Orçamental 3, Temporary Measures 2,5 Percentage of GDP 2, 1,5 1,,5,

25 Composição da balança Composition of the Current plus Capital Account Percentage of GDP Current+Capital Accounts Trade Balance Services Income Current Transfers Capital Account

26 Posição de investimento internacional International Investment Position and External Investment Position 2 1 As a percentage of GDP International Investment Position Net External Position Note: The International Investment Position statistics takes account of all external financial assets and liabilities on the economy. The Net External Position, compared with the IInternational Investment Position, does not include among its major components the stocks of direct invetsment, portfolio investment in equity securities, trade credits and financial derivatives. This means that the Net External Position includes only interest-bearing assets and liabilitiies vis-à-vis abroad.

27 Balança financeira 14 Financial Account Net changes in foreign Assets and Liabilities Balances as percentage of GDP (+) Net financial inflows (increase in liabilities or decrease in assets) (-) Net financial outflows (increase in assets or decrease in liabilities) Direct Investment Portfolio Investment Asset reserves + Financial derivatives Other Investment Total

28 Balança financeira 15 Financial Account: Net values 1 Percentage of GDP (-) Net (+) Net inflows outflows Monetary Financial Institutions Monetary Authorities Public Administrations Non-monetary Financial Institutions + households Total

29 Instituições Economic Freedom Ratings - Business regulation Economic Freedom Ratings - Legal system and property rights Scale -1 (higher values mean more freedom) Finland UK Denmark Sweden Ireland Nd Eu Austria Spain Germany France Portugal Italy Greece Belgium Scale -1 (higher values mean more freedom) Finland UK Denmark Nd Austria Germany Sweden Ireland EU Belgium Portugal Italy France Spain Greece Fraser Institute 23 Fraser Institute 23

30 Mercado de trabalho Legislation on employment protection European countries OECD Nicoletti Nickell Morgan (1999) et al. (2) et al. (21) et al. (21) Austria 2,3 2,4 1,3 - Belgium 2,5 2,1 1,35 11,3 Denmark 1,5 1,5,9 - Finland 2,1 2,1 1,13 - France 2,8 3,1 1,41 87,7 Germany 2,6 2,8 1,52 91,4 Greece 3,5 3,5-17, Ireland 1,1 1,,52 84,8 Italy 3,4 3,3 1,89 119,4 Netherlands 2,2 2,4 1,28 95, Norway 2,6 2,9 1,46 - Portugal 3,7 3,7 1,93 121,1 Spain 3,1 3,2 1,74 91, Sweden 2,6 2,4 1,53 - Switzerland 1,5 1,3,55 - United Kingdom,9,5,35 39,2 Non-European countries Australia 1,2 1,1,5 - Canada 1,1,6,3 - Japan 2,3 2,6 1,4 - New Zealand,9 1,,8 - United States,7,2,1 - Source: Varejão (22)

31 Capital humano Population that has attained at least upper secondary education (21) Korea Norway Slovakia Japan Czech Rep Sitzerland Sweden Canada USA Finland Denmark Germany Austria New Zel Hungary France Belgium Netherland Ireland Greece Australia UK Iceland Luxembur Italy Spain Poland Portugal Turkey Mexico

32 Capital humano Total public expenditure on education (2) Public expenditure on educational institutions plus public subsidies to households (which includes subsidies for living costs, and other private entities) as a percentage of GDP Turkey Japan Greece Slovaquia Korea Ireland Czech Rep Spain Germany Italy UK Netherlands Mexico Hungary USA Australia Belgium Poland Switzerland Canada Portugal Austria France Finland Iceland Norway New Zel. Sweden Denmark Primary, basic and secondary Superior Other

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