September 2013 emarketer Team

Transcription

1 THE GLOBAL MEDIA INTELLIGENCE REPORT September emarketer Team

2 Italy s February general election eventually produced a coalition, led by centerleft politician Enrico Letta, in April. But the government is extremely unstable, and another election will likely be called in late or early. In the interim, officials will make little headway in promoting economic recovery. The banks have kept interest rates for private borrowers high, stifling potential activity among individuals and small, familyrun businesses major contributors to the wellbeing of many residents. Talk of Italy defaulting on its debts has died down, but the country is still in dire financial straits. According to the IMF, Italian GDP contracted by 2.4% in and will shrivel by a further 1.8% in before rising 0.7% in. In early September, the EIU noted that the recession may be close to bottoming out, though output did shrink by 0.2% in the quarter ended June. The same source commented with approval that Italy s macroeconomic environment is showing promise, moving in tandem with reforms aimed at encouraging private enterprise and competition. Nonetheless, the unresolved shortcomings of the legislative and judicial systems will dismay many investors. Inflation, measured in terms of the consumer price index, was well under control in August, at 1.13%, the EU reported. But unemployment seems to be stuck at more than 11% near a 20year high and is not expected to fall appreciably for many months, though Prime Minister Letta has highlighted this problem as a top priority for his government. TV still trumps all other media in Italy. Over 96% of people 14 and older polled by GfK Eurisko for its Sinottica Survey, Wave 1 had watched freetoair TV programming in the previous week a proportion apparently constant since. The popularity of cable and satellite TV fell sharply, though, perhaps as a result of pressure on consumers discretionary spending. While 58.7% said they watched cable TV in the week before sampling last year, more recently the percentage was just 45.3%. Satellite TV viewing had dropped by a similar margin, from 33.0% to 22.0%. TV from whatever delivery method topped the engagement rankings as consumers clocked up an average 3 hours and 43 minutes each day with their sets in. By comparison, radio registered 2 hours and 49 minutes, magazines 42 minutes, and newspapers just over half an hour per day, on average. Internet usage in Italy has languished well behind Western European norms. In, 32.6 million residents, or 53.1% of the population, will go online at least once per month, emarketer predicts. This slow takeup mirrors the relatively low reach of broadband. Barely half of all households in Italy an estimated 53.3% will have a fixed, highspeed connection to the web in. That proportion will creep up to in. Internet users remained notably younger than Italy s other media audiences. As in, 21.0% of web users were in the 14to24 age bracket in early ; the proportion ages 65 or older had barely risen, from 4.2% to 4.6%. The male bias in the online population also increased as men accounted for 53.2% of web users. Some other gender imbalances were also accentuated, GfK Eurisko reported, such as among magazine readers (61.7% female). Women also outnumbered men among TV viewers, whether freetoair or cable. Italy will register a marginal increase in the total number of mobile connections this year, to 151.2% of the population. Some 49.9 million people of all ages will use a mobile phone in 81.1% of the population, emarketer projects. Penetration will continue to rise at about 1 percentage point per year through. By comparison, smartphone ownership is leaping ahead, though the lack of disposable income for many consumers has somewhat constrained this trend. An estimated 41.0% of Italy s mobile phone users will have a smartphone this year onethird of the entire population. As in other markets across Europe, smartphone owners are an elite and attractive audience for advertisers: GfK Eurisko found that more than one in five of these individuals lived in highincome households. As in, the number of mobile phone owners with a smartphone in will be virtually identical to the total using the mobile web (42.0%, emarketer estimates). Clearly, these two markets are developing in close parallel. Mobile internet use rose by nearly 30% in both and, for example, while smartphone penetration jumped by about 33% in both years. Yet judging by GfK Eurisko data, some differences remain between Italy s smartphone and mobile internet populations though these are diminishing with time. The mobile internet audience was 55.9% male in early, as were 54.3% of smartphone users. income individuals made up 24.3% of people going online via mobile, vs. 20.8% of smartphone users. And a greater share of mobile phone web users came from the 18to34 age group 48.9%, compared with 40.6% of smartphone owners. The Global Media Intelligence Report Copyright emarketer, Inc. All rights reserved. WE43

3 Tablets, which registered little if any consumer takeup in Western Europe during and early, have since made up for lost time in many markets. In Italy, 5.5% of residents ages 14 and older had access to such a device in early, according to GfK Eurisko. But emarketer forecasts that even modest penetration will produce a tablet audience of 12.1 million this year. And users epitomize the affluent, male audience many advertisers seek. Nearly onethird (32.5%) of all tablet owners belonged to the highest income levels in, GfK Eurisko reported, and men claimed more than half (54.1%) of the total. Italy s comprehensive economic malaise and drastically reduced consumer spending power have wrought havoc with the advertising industry. Total media ad spending plunged by 9.0% in, emarketer estimates, and will slide a further 1.5% this year, to $11.23 billion, before rebounding 1.5% in. Other firms estimate more severe shrinkage in both and, and lower ad spending overall. ZenithOptimedia, for example, has predicted a far more precipitate 12.2% drop in ad expenditure in the country this year, compounded by another 2.6% fall next year, and does not foresee any advance before. Unlike our estimates for total ad investment, ZenithOptimedia bases its Advertising Expenditure Forecasts on quite different methodology and does not include as many categories of digital and mobile spending. This results in much lower estimates for outlay on all measured media. The source has calculated that spending will fall often by double digits in every category except internet advertising, which will expand by 2.1% this year to approximately $1.11 billion. Only TV will attract a larger share of ad budgets but the gap between the two remains immense. emarketer estimates that digital ad spending in Italy will reach $1.65 billion in, up 9.0% year over year. We expect annual doubledigit growth rates to continue through, when investment in digital ads will hit $2.51 billion. Display will claim the lion s share, making up about 44.8% of digital ad outlays this year. Mobile ad spending is growing more rapidly, though, and has exceeded our forecasts. This year, expenditure on mobile platforms will rise by an estimated 90.0%, to $198.0 million. By, Italy s market in mobile advertising will be worth nearly $916 million, emarketer projects. POPULATION Population in Italy, 2010 millions Note: population as of July for each year Source: US Census Bureau, International Data Base, June The Global Media Intelligence Report Copyright emarketer, Inc. All rights reserved. WE44

4 MEDIA Media Penetration in Italy, & % of population TV viewers (1) Mobile phone users Internet users (2) Magazine readers (3) Newspaper readers (4) Radio listeners (1) Cable TV viewers (5) 54.7% 52.1% 51.9% 48.9% 51.6% 48.7% 45.8% 47.4% 45.3% Smartphone owners 39.5% 34.9% Social network users 37.3% 41.9% Satellite TV viewers (1) 33.0% 22.0% Mobile phone internet users 8.1% 13.2% Tablet owners 5.5% 58.7% 90.0% 90.8% 96.2% 96.2% Note: ages 14+; (1) past 7 days; (2), used in the past 3 months from any location;, past 7 days from any location; (3) read weekly (in the past 30 days) and monthly (in the past 4 months) publications; used in the past 3 months from any location; (4) read in the past 7 days (information, financial, sports); (5), subscribe at home;, past 7 days from all locations Source: GfK Eurisko, "Sinottica Survey, Wave 1," ; provided by Starcom MediaVest Group, June 1, Average Time Spent with Media per Day in Italy, minutes TV 223 Radio 169 Internet 73 Magazines Newspapers Note: ages 14+ Source: GfK Eurisko, "Eurisko Media Monitor (EMM), FebDec," ; provided by Starcom MediaVest Group, June 1, Demographic Profile of Media Users in Italy, Internet users* Mobile phone users TV viewers* Cable TV viewers* Radio listeners* Magazine readers** Newspaper readers*** % 46.8% 7.4% 13.6% 21.0% 24.5% 19.0% 9.9% 4.6% 48.8% 51.2% 4.6% 9.1% 15.3% 19.8% 18.3% 14.5% 18.4% 47.8% 52.2% 4.3% 8.2% 13.8% 18.0% 17.1% 14.6% 24.0% 47.7% 52.3% 5.4% 10.9% 16.8% 19.3% 18.2% 13.0% 16.5% 52.5% 47.5% 3.7% 9.9% 18.7% 23.7% 19.9% 12.3% 11.8% 38.3% 61.7% 3.6% 7.5% 14.4% 18.9% 17.6% 15.0% 23.0% 60.2% 39.8% 2.6% 6.6% 14.4% 19.6% 19.6% 16.0% 21.2% 21.6% 59.1% 19.2% 28.8% 55.9% 15.3% 30.2% 55.3% 14.5% 29.5% 54.9% 15.7% 26.8% 57.2% 16.0% 26.2% 56.4% 17.4% 24.3% 57.0% 18.7% Note: numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding; *used in the past 7 days from any location; **read weekly (in the past 30 days) and monthly (in the past 4 months) publications; ***read in the past 7 days (information, financial, sports) Source: GfK Eurisko, "Sinottica Survey, Wave 1," ; provided by Starcom MediaVest Group, June 1, The Global Media Intelligence Report Copyright emarketer, Inc. All rights reserved. WE45

5 INTERNET Internet Users and Penetration in Italy, millions, % of population and % change % % % % % % Demographic Profile of Internet Users in Italy, 46.8% 53.2% % % 4.6% % % % % 4.7% 4.3% 4.1% 3.9% 3.2% 2.7% 2.5% 19.2% 21.6% Internet users % of population % change Note: individuals of any age who use the internet from any location via any device at least once per month Source: emarketer, April Comparative Estimates: Internet Users and Penetration in Italy, Internet users (millions) emarketer, April (1) GroupM, March Audiweb, Jan (2) Cisco Systems, May Jefferies, Sep Nielsen, Dec (3) comscore Inc., March (4) Internet penetration (% of population) emarketer, April (1) 51.2% 53.1% 56.6% 58.0% 59.3% GfK Eurisko (5) Audiweb, Jan (2) Pew Research Center Global Attitudes Project, Dec (6) ITU, June (7) Eurostat, March (8) IStat, Dec (9) 54.7% 79.6% 62.0% 58.0% 56.0% 52.5% 52.1% Note: (1) individuals of any age who use the internet from any location via any device at least once per month; (2) ages 1174; access via home PC, mobile phone, school/university PC, tablet, TV, video game console, work PC and other; (3) home and work locations; (4) ages 15+; home and work locations; threemonth average for Q4 of each year; (5) ages 14+; used in the past three months from any location; used in the past seven days from any location; (6) ages 18+; at least occasionally; (7) includes those using the internet from any device (including mobile phones) in the past 12 months; (8) ages 1674; all locations; accessed the internet in the past three months; (9) ages 6+ who have used the internet in the past 12 months Source: emarketer, April ; various, as noted, & % Note: used in the past 7 days from any location; numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding Source: GfK Eurisko, "Sinottica Survey, Wave 1," ; provided by Starcom MediaVest Group, June 1, Fixed Broadband Households and Subscriptions in Italy, Households (millions) % % % % % % % Household penetration 50.5% 52.3% 53.3% 54.2% 54.5% 54.8% Subscriptions (millions) % % % % % % % Note: includes connections with permanent access to the internet via cable modem, DSL, fiber and wireless/satellite technologies; excludes mobile Source: emarketer, April Comparative Estimates: Fixed Broadband Households and Penetration in Italy, & Fixed broadband households (millions) emarketer*, April GroupM, March Fixed broadband household penetration (% of households) GroupM, March emarketer*, April Eurostat, March 53.0% 52.3% 53.3% Note: *includes connections with permanent access to the internet via cable modem, DSL, fiber and wireless/satellite technologies; excludes mobile Source: emarketer, April ; various, as noted, The Global Media Intelligence Report Copyright emarketer, Inc. All rights reserved. WE46

6 Social Network Users and Penetration in Italy, Social network users (millions) % of internet users % of population % 52.5% 25.9% % 57.9% 29.6% % 61.3% 32.6% % 63.7% 35.0% % 65.0% 36.8% % 66.0% 38.3% % 67.0% 39.7% Note: internet users who use a social network site via any device at least once per month Source: emarketer, April Comparative Estimates: Social Network User Penetration in Italy, & % of internet users Usage emarketer, April 57.9% 61.3% Use via any device at least once per month All ages Deloitte*, May GlobalWebIndex, Feb Ipsos OTX, Jan Pew Research Center Global Attitudes Project, Dec Ofcom, Dec IAB Europe, Oct 78.0% 67.0% 61.0% 59.0% 48.0% 30.0% Use via any device daily Use via any device at least 1 hour per day Have ever used Use at home Use daily Note: *includes chat and forums Source: emarketer, April ; various, as noted, & Demographic Profile of Social Network Users in Italy, 3.1% % % 47.3% 52.7% 17.5% 57.4% % 25.1% % % % Source: GfK Eurisko, "Sinottica Survey, Wave 1," ; provided by Starcom MediaVest Group, June 1, Facebook Users and Penetration in Italy, Facebook users (millions) % of social network users % of internet users % of population % 81.9% 43.0% 21.2% % 89.8% 52.0% 26.6% % 89.7% 29.2% % 89.5% 57.0% 31.4% % 89.4% 58.1% 32.9% % 89.7% 59.2% 34.3% % 89.6% 60.0% 35.6% Note: internet users who access their Facebook account via any device at least once per month Source: emarketer, April The Global Media Intelligence Report Copyright emarketer, Inc. All rights reserved. WE47

7 MOBILE Mobile Connections in Italy, millions, % of population and % change % % % % % % % Mobile Phone Users in Italy, millions, % of population and % change % % % % % % % 5.8% 2.2% 1.9% 1.7% 1.5% 1.3% 1.3% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% Mobile connections % of population % change Note: data is for Dec of each year; includes the total number of mobile connections, for mobile phones as well as for nonvoice devices, such as internet access devices (e.g., wireless modem cards, netbooks and mobile WiFi hotspots), ereaders, tablets and telematics systems Source: emarketer, May Comparative Estimates: Mobile Connections and Penetration in Italy, Mobile connections (millions) Yankee Group, Sep emarketer*, May AGCOM**, June Datamonitor, Aug ITU, June Mobile connection penetration (% of population) emarketer*, April ITU, June 150.9% 159.5% 151.2% 151.5% 151.8% 152.0% Note: *data is for Dec of each year; **excludes mobile virtual network operators Source: emarketer, May ; various, as noted, & Mobile phone users % of population % change Note: individuals of any age who own at least one mobile phone and use the phone(s) at least once per month Source: emarketer, May Demographic Profile of Mobile Phone Users in Italy, % 48.8% 51.2% 15.3% % 28.8% 18.4% % % % % 55.9% Source: GfK Eurisko, "Sinottica Survey, Wave 1," ; provided by Starcom MediaVest Group, June 1, The Global Media Intelligence Report Copyright emarketer, Inc. All rights reserved. WE48

8 Smartphone Users and Penetration in Italy, Smartphone users (millions) % of mobile phone users % of population % 24.0% 18.8% % 31.4% 25.1% % 41.0% 33.3% % 50.9% 41.8% % 61.0% 50.8% % 66.5% 55.9% % 68.0% 57.8% Note: individuals of any age who own at least one smartphone and use the smartphone(s) at least once per month Source: emarketer, May Demographic Profile of Smartphone Owners in Italy, 3.0% % % Demographic Profile of Mobile Phone Internet Users in Italy, % 0.5% 44.1% 55.9% 24.3% 18.6% % % % % % 45.7% 54.3% % % % % 57.1% Source: GfK Eurisko, "Sinottica Survey, Wave 1," ; provided by Starcom MediaVest Group, June 1, % 58.3% 20.9% Tablet Users in Italy, millions, % of internet users and % of population Source: GfK Eurisko, "Sinottica Survey, Wave 1," ; provided by Starcom MediaVest Group, June 1, Mobile Phone Internet Users and Penetration in Italy, Mobile phone internet users (millions) % of mobile phone users % of population % of internet users % 20.4% 41.4% 44.8% % 26.4% 51.5% 29.7% % 34.1% 64.1% 29.7% % 42.7% 77.7% 25.9% % 51.6% 91.1% 21.0% % 56.8% 97.9% 10.3% % 58.7% 98.9% 3.5% Note: mobile phone users of any age who access the internet from a mobile browser or an installed application at least once per month; use of SMS/MMS is not considered mobile internet access Source: emarketer, May % 10.0% % 16.4% 37.0% 19.6% 41.0% 22.6% 44.0% 24.9% 46.0% 26.7% 49.0% 29.1% Tablet users % of internet users % of population Note: individuals of any age who use a tablet at least once per month Source: emarketer, May The Global Media Intelligence Report Copyright emarketer, Inc. All rights reserved. WE49

9 Demographic Profile of Tablet Owners in Italy, 45.9% 54.1% 32.5% 12.4% % % 5.6% % % % % Comparative Estimates: Total Media Ad Spending in Italy, Total ad spending (billions) emarketer*, Aug GroupM**, Aug ZenithOptimedia***, June Nielsen*, Feb $11.4 $10.2 $7.5 $9.5 $11.2 $9.0 $6.6 $11.4 $9.2 $6.4 $11.6 $6.5 Total ad spending growth (% change) emarketer, Aug Barclays Capital, Jan Carat, March Warc Consensus, June ZenithOptimedia, June GroupM, Aug Nielsen, Feb 9.0% 12.6% 12.0% 13.1% 12.5% 14.3% 1.5% 3.0% 4.8% 8.1% 12.2% 12.5% 1.5% 5.0% 0.4% 2.6% 2.6% 2.2% 0.8% Note: *converted at the exchange rate of US$1= 0.78; **converted to US$ based on varying local currency rates for each year; ***converted at the exchange rate of US$1= Source: emarketer, Aug ; various, as noted, Source: GfK Eurisko, "Sinottica Survey, Wave 1," ; provided by Starcom MediaVest Group, June 1, AD SPENDING Total Media Ad Spending in Italy, billions and % change 0 $ % $ % $ % $ % $ % $ % $ % Ad Spending in Italy, by Media, 2010 millions and % change 2010 TV $4,887 $4,736 $4,011 $3,490 $3,385 $3, % 3.1% 15.3% 13.0% 3.0% 0.5% Internet* $462 $1,026 $1,090 $1,112 $1,164 $1, % 122.2% 6.2% 2.1% 4.7% 6.8% Newspapers $1,357 $1,249 $1,013 $793 $727 $ % 8.0% 18.9% 21.7% 8.3% 4.0% Magazines $840 $808 $661 $560 $520 $ % 3.7% 18.3% 15.3% 7.2% 3.8% Radio $624 $576 $517 $439 $431 $ % 7.8% 10.2% 15.0% 2.0% 1.5% Outdoor $255 $230 $203 $189 $185 $ % 10.0% 11.5% 7.0% 2.0% 0.0% Cinema $57 $49 $40 $33 $31 $ % 15.0% 18.7% 18.0% 5.0% 0.0% Total $8,483 $8,674 $7,535 $6,616 $6,443 $6, % 2.2% 13.1% 12.2% 2.6% 0.8% Note: converted at the exchange rate of US$1= 0.779; numbers may not add up to total due to rounding; *classifieds, display and search Source: ZenithOptimedia, "Advertising Expenditure Forecasts," June ; provided by Starcom MediaVest Group, June Total media ad spending % change Note: includes digital (online and mobile), directories, magazines, newspapers, outdoor, radio and TV; converted at the exchange rate of US$1= 0.78; CAGR ()=1.3% Source: emarketer, Aug The Global Media Intelligence Report Copyright emarketer, Inc. All rights reserved. WE50

10 Digital Ad Spending in Italy, billions and % change Digital Ad Spending in Italy, by Format, billions $2.51 $2.51 $1.44 $1.52 $1.65 $1.83 $2.05 $2.28 $1.44 $0.28 $0.52 $1.52 $0.28 $0.55 $1.65 $0.30 $0.60 $1.83 $0.33 $0.68 $2.05 $0.36 $0.76 $2.28 $0.40 $0.84 $0.44 $ % 5.2% 9.0% 11.0% 12.0% 11.0% 10.0% $0.64 $0.68 $0.74 $0.82 $0.92 $1.02 $1.13 Digital ad spending % change Note: includes advertising that appears on desktop and laptop computers as well as mobile phones and tablets, and includes all the various formats of advertising on those platforms; excludes SMS, MMS and P2P messagingbased advertising; CAGR ()=10.6%; converted at the exchange rate of US$1= 0.78 Source: emarketer, June ; confirmed and republished, Aug Comparative Estimates: Digital Ad Spending in Italy, Digital ad spending (billions) PwC*, June $1.79 $2.09 $2.38 $2.70 $2.97 $3.16 GroupM**, Aug $1.61 $1.70 $1.84 emarketer*, Aug $1.52 $1.65 $1.83 $2.05 $2.28 $2.51 ZenithOptimedia***, June IAB Europe*, May Nielsen*, Feb BCG, March $1.09 $1.82 $0.85 $1.11 $1.16 $1.24 $3.80 Digital ad spending growth (% change) Barclays Capital, Jan 15.0% 19.2% 17.2% PwC, June 18.1% 16.9% 13.6% 13.3% 10.2% 6.3% emarketer, Aug 5.2% 9.0% 11.0% 12.0% 11.0% 10.0% MAGNA GLOBAL, March GroupM, Aug ZenithOptimedia, June Nielsen, Feb 9.0% 6.2% 5.3% 6.8% 5.7% 2.1% 8.3% 4.7% 6.8% Note: *converted at the exchange rate of US$1= 0.78; **converted to US$ based on varying local currency rates for each year; ***converted at the exchange rate of US$1= Source: emarketer, Aug ; various, as noted, & Display* Search** Classifieds and directories Other*** Note: includes advertising that appears on desktop and laptop computers as well as mobile phones and tablets on all formats mentioned; numbers may not add up to total due to rounding; converted at the exchange rate of US$1= 0.78; *banners (static display), rich media, sponsorships and video (instream, inbanner, intext); **paid listings, contextual text links and paid inclusion; ***ingame advertising, newsletter advertising and Source: emarketer, June ; confirmed and republished, Aug Mobile Internet Ad Spending in Italy, millions and % change 44.9% $ % $ % $198.0 Mobile internet ad spending 85.0% $366.4 $567.9 % change $ % $ % Note: includes display (banners, video and rich media) and search; excludes SMS, MMS and P2P messagingbased advertising; includes ad spending on tablets; converted at the exchange rate of US$1= 0.78; CAGR ()=54.4% Source: emarketer, June ; confirmed and republished, Aug The Global Media Intelligence Report Copyright emarketer, Inc. All rights reserved. WE51

11 Comparative Estimates: Mobile Ad Spending in Italy, Mobile ad spending (millions) FirstPartner*, April emarketer**, Aug PwC**, June GroupM***, Aug $160.4 $300.8 $436.3 $520.3 $558.9 $104.2 $198.0 $366.4 $567.9 $732.6 $915.7 $110.0 $54.6 $139.0 $64.9 $170.0 $74.0 $208.0 $246.0 $282.0 Mobile ad spending growth (% change) emarketer, Aug FirstPartner, April GroupM, Aug PwC, June 66.3% 101.6% 66.7% 90.0% 87.5% 52.0% 26.4% 85.0% 45.0% 12.3% 22.3% 19.3% 22.4% 29.0% 7.4% 18.3% 25.0% 14.6% Note: *converted at the exchange rate of US$1= 0.72; **converted at the exchange rate of US$1= 0.78; ***converted to US$ based on varying local currency rates for each year Source: emarketer, Aug ; various, as noted, & The Global Media Intelligence Report Copyright emarketer, Inc. All rights reserved. WE52