Ofcom analyst briefing The Communications Market Report 2015

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1 Ofcom analyst briefing The Communications Market Report August 2015

2 1 Agenda Introduction James Thickett, Director of Nations and Market Developments Market overview Jane Rumble, Director of Market Intelligence The audio-visual industries Jonathan Fenn, Senior Media Analyst The telecoms industries Nick Collins, Senior Telecoms Analyst Beatrix Kalmar, Senior Telecoms Analyst Internet and online content Steven Cape, Senior Analyst, Market Intelligence Post Steven Cape, Senior Analyst, Market Intelligence

3 The Communications Market Report

4 3 Market overview Jane Rumble, Director of Market Intelligence

5 4 Total UK communications revenues were 56.1bn in bn Annual change 5 year CAGR 60bn 40bn 58bn 57bn 58bn 57bn 56bn 56bn 4bn 4bn 4bn 4bn 4bn 4bn 1bn 1bn 1bn 1bn 1bn 1bn 11bn 12bn 12bn 12bn 13bn 13bn Total Post Radio -0.5% -0.5% 0.4% 0.7% 3.6% 2.1% 20bn 41bn 40bn 40bn 39bn 38bn 37bn TV 3.1% 3.6% 0bn Telecoms -2.0% -2.0% Source: Ofcom/ operators Page 25 Figure 1.2

6 Average monthly household spend on communication services down since 2009 per month (2014 prices) % 4.8% 5.1% 5.3% 5.2% 5.1% 6% 5% Post Radio % Television % Fixed internet Source: Ofcom / operators/ ONS Notes: Adjusted for CPI; historic telecoms figures have been re-stated, so are not comparable to those published in previous reports. Television excludes spend on subscriptions, download-to-own and pay-per-view online TV services. 2% 1% 0% Mobile voice & data Fixed voice % of total spend Page 26 Figure 1.3 5

7 6 Increase in take-up of tablets and smartphones continues Proportion of individuals (%) 100% 97% Digital television DVD player 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Source: Ofcom research, Q1 of each year, all adults aged % 66% 62% 54% 49% 36% 35% 28% 3% 2% % 12% Games console MP3 player DAB digital radio DVR Smartphone E-reader Smart TV 3D ready TV Tablet Smart Watch USB TV device Page 28 Figure 1.5

8 7 Smartphones overtake laptops as the most important device to connect to the internet Proportion of internet users (%) 60% 40% 20% 46% 28% 15% 8% 40% 20% 23% 15% 30% 14% 33% 19% 0% Laptop Desktop Smartphone Tablet Source: Ofcom research, Q1 of each year, all adults aged 16+ who use the internet at home or elsewhere. Page 31 Figure 1.9

9 8 Reported use of bundled services remained stable from 2014 to 2015 Proportion of households 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 40% 5% 3% 1% 45% 6% 2% 16% 50% 9% 2% 17% 39% 8% 1% 2% 16% 60% 46% 7% 6% 1% 1% 3% 2% 19% 21% 63% 63% 8% 6% 2% 2% 23% 25% Other Mobile and broadband Fixed voice, broadband, mobile and TV Fixed voice, dial-up and TV Fixed voice and TV 20% 12% Fixed voice and dial-up 27% 27% 28% 27% 20% 22% 24% 10% 17% 0% Source: Ofcom research, Q1 of each year, all adults aged 16+ Fixed voice, broadband and TV Fixed voice and broadband Page 35 Figure 1.14

10 9 Satisfaction with fixed broadband and mobile telephony has decreased Proportion of users of service (%) 100% 80% 91% 89% 89% 90% 89% 89% 94% 93% 95% 94% 93% 91% 90% 86% 87% 88% 88% 86% 83% 88% 90% 88% 86% 83% 60% 40% 20% 0% Fixed telephony Mobile telephony Fixed broadband Mobile Broadband Source: Ofcom research, Q1 of each year, all adults aged 16+ Page 36 Figure 1.15

11 10 The audio-visual industries Jonathan Fenn, Senior Media Analyst, Market Intelligence

12 11 Overall TV revenues up 3.1% YoY Growth to yr 5yr CAGR 7,000m 11,088 11,794 12,366 12,486 12,834 13, % 3.6% Total 6,000m 5,000m 4,655m 4,000m 3,143m 5,027m 3,491m 5,428m 3,630m 5,518m 3,547m 5,879m 3,693m 5,989m 3,838m 1.9% 3.9% 5.2% 4.1% Subscription revenue Net advertising revenue 3,000m 2,555m 2,563m 2,585m 2,671m 2,596m 2,000m 2,727m 5.1% 1.3% BBC income allocated to TV 1,000m 736m 712m 723m 749m 0,000m 667m 672m Source: Ofcom/broadcasters. Note: Figures expressed in nominal terms. 0.9% -1.8% Other revenue Page 165 Figure 2.22

13 12 TV advertising revenues up 4% YoY NAR 4,000m 3,491m 3,630m 3,547m 3,693m 3,838m Growth 1 year 5yr CAGR 3,000m 3,143m 802m 834m 908m 910m 968m 1,043m 4% 4% Combined 2,000m 445m 518m 544m 561m 639m 653m 8% 5% Commercial multichannels 1,000m 1,896m 2,140m 2,178m 2,077m 2,085m 2,141m 2% 8% Commercial PSB portfolio channels 3% 2% Commercial PSB channels 0,000m Source: Ofcom/broadcasters. Note: Figures expressed in nominal terms. Page 168 Figure 2.25

14 13 Online TV revenues grew 38% YoY 900m 800m 700m 600m 500m 400m 379m 574m 190m 793m 240m 317m Annual Growth 38% 26% 53% FTV Ad Revenues Subscriptions 300m 200m 100m 0m 95m 32m 33m 180m 238m 145m 207m 113m 104m 74m 57m 23m 25m 38m 25m 66m 75m 92m 121m 81m 155m % 28% PPV transactions DTO transactions Source: IHS Page 149 Figure 2.4

15 14 Increase in programme spend driven by sports channels 1 yr change 7,000m 5,811m 6,355m +9.4% 6,000m 5,000m 4,000m 3,000m 2,000m 179m 260m 246m 298m 486m 708m 794m 747m 181m 269m 236m 311m 492m 757m 818m 813m +1% +3% -4% +4% +1% +7% Channel 5 Other PSB portfolio channels BBC portfolio channels BBC Two Channel 4 Other multichannels 1,000m 2,093m 2,477m +3% ITV/ITV Breakfast 0,000m % +18% BBC One Film/Sport channels Source: Ofcom/broadcasters. Note: Figures expressed in nominal prices Page 172 Figure 2.29

16 15 Smart-TV take-up continues to grow % of UK TV homes 25% 20% 15% 10% 21% 12% 5% 7% 0% Source: Ofcom Technology Tracker, Q Smart TV ownership Research from media consultancy 3 Reasons estimates that 56% of UK TV homes had a TV connected to the internet, either via a settop box or a smart TV, at the end of However, this figure is likely to be higher when other thirdparty devices which can also be used to connect TVs to the internet, such as games consoles or streaming devices are included. Page 151 Figure 2.7

17 16 Increase in take-up of DVRs and HDTV, while 3DTV remains niche % of UK homes with a TV 100% 80% % 40% 54% 62% 64% 75% 75% 76% 50% 53% 57% % 0% 8% 10% 13% Total DVR take-up HD ready TV HDTV service 3D TV Source: Ofcom Technology Tracker, Q Pages Figures

18 17 Broadcast TV viewing fell for the second consecutive year Average minutes per person per day of broadcast TV viewing: Total TV, individuals Source: BARB Page 40 Figure 1.17

19 18 All of the decline in TV viewing was to traditional live TV Average minutes of viewing per day by activity: Total TV, Individuals Timeshift Traditional TV viewing (Live) Source: BARB Page 43 Figure 1.22

20 19 Fall most pronounced among under-45s Average minutes per day of broadcast TV viewing by age group: Total TV All individuals Children Adults Adults Adults Adults Adults Adults Source: BARB Page 41 Figure 1.19

21 20 ITV channels had the largest decline in minutes YoY Average minutes of viewing per day by channel group: Total TV, Individuals All other channels Channel 5 portfolio channels Channel 4 portfolio channels ITV portfolio channels BBC portfolio channels Channel 5 Channel 4 ITV BBC Two BBC One Source: BARB Page 42 Figure 1.21

22 21 The majority of long form AV viewing is to traditional TV, but is falling Proportion of all audio-visual viewing: traditional TV viewing vs. DVR and VoD Live Recorded VOD H H H H H H H H H % 91% 90% 89% 88% 88% 87% 86% 85% 6% 2% 7% 2% 8% 2% 9% 2% 9% 3% 9% 3% 9% 4% 10% 4% 10% 6% 0% 50% 100% Proportion of viewing minutes across all devices Source: 3 Reasons estimates (including BARB data). Base: All devices, long-form professional AV content, Live includes simulcast. Excludes physical consumption (e.g. DVDs) and short-form Page 162 Figure 2.21

23 22 BBC iplayer remained the most popular VoD service in 2014 Proportion watching VoD services in past 12 months (%) 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 31% 16% BBC iplayer ITV Player 4oD Demand 5 Sky (all) 10% 10% Virgin (all) 5% 0% 7% 3% 2% BT Vision TalkTalk TV H H H H H H H H H H Page 53 Figure 1.31 Source: Kantar Media TGI Base: GB adults 15+, all devices.

24 23 There are now over 6 million VOD subscriptions to OTT services in the UK Households (millions) Q Q Q Q Q Netflix Amazon Prime /LoveFilm Now TV 0.5 Source: BARB Establishment Survey Q1-Q Q Do you or anyone in your household, subscribe to any of the following? Page 54 Figure 1.32

25 24 Back catalogue most common reason for subscribing Reasons for using Amazon Prime Instant Video / Netflix To access back-catalogue of films To access back-catalogue of TV programmes To access catalogue of new film releases To watch at a time that suits To watch multiple episodes in a row Cheaper than renting/buying DVDs/Blu-ray discs To watch programmes missed when initially broadcast To watch programmes wanted to see again To watch something different to content on main TV To watch original series made by provider Cheaper than pay TV subscription To watch a specific programme To watch exclusive content not available elsewhere To watch content suitable for children 37% 35% 30% 25% 28% 27% 28% 28% 27% 23% 24% 24% 24% 15% 23% 22% 21% 20% 20% 14% 18% 14% Source: GfK SVoD Tracker. Base: All Amazon Prime Instant Video / Netflix subscribers 47% 42% 42% 45% 63% 60% Netflix users Amazon Prime Instant Video users 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Page 55 Figure 1.33

26 25 The telecoms industries Nick Collins, Senior Telecoms Analyst Beatrix Kalmar Senior Telecoms Analyst

27 Fixed voice

28 27 Fixed voice call volumes fell by 13% in 2014 Billions of minutes Non-geographic calls Calls to mobiles International calls UK geographic calls Source: Ofcom / operators Page 285 Figure 4.35

29 28 Use of non-traditional communication services is increasing Proportion of respondents 100% 80% 81% 83% 82% 78% 80% 78% 80% 71% % 54% 55% 52% 53% % 20% 0% Mobile messaging Social networking sites 40% 35% 28% 22% VoIP (voice call only) 37% 32% 24% 17% Mobile instant messaging 14% 17% 8% 4% Video calls Source: Ofcom Technology Tracker Page 310 Figure 4.66

30 29 Lower prices and the ability to video call and are the main advantages of using VoIP Proportion of mentions (%) 8% 7% 12% 5% 3% Price related Video calling Can call wherever there is a web connection 44% Ability to send files mid-conversation Group calling Call quality is better if the connection is fast enough 22% Other Source: YouGov online survey Page 266 Figure 4.14

31 30 Business VoIP minutes tripled in the five years to 2014 Billions of minutes Source: IDC Page 299 Figure 4.53

32 31 The total number of fixed lines increased by 2.4%, although business lines fell in 2013 Millions Business Residential Source: Ofcom / operators Page 287 Figure 4.37

33 32 The real price of a basket of residential fixed voice services increased in 2014 per month (2014 prices) Calls to mobiles International calls UK geographic calls Fixed access -5.6% 1.3% 0.0% 2.3% 1.5% 1.2% Annual change Source: Ofcom / operators Page 311 Figure 4.67

34 33 Retail fixed voice revenues declined by 3% Revenue 10bn 8bn 6bn 4bn 2bn 0bn 9.6bn 9.4bn 9.0bn 8.8bn 8.7bn 8.5bn 1.2bn 1.1bn 1.0bn 0.9bn 0.8bn 0.8bn 1.6bn 1.5bn 1.2bn 1.0bn 0.9bn 0.8bn 0.5bn 0.4bn 0.4bn 0.3bn 0.3bn 0.2bn 1.3bn 1.2bn 1.1bn 1.0bn 0.9bn 0.8bn 5.1bn 5.1bn 5.3bn 5.6bn 5.8bn 5.9bn Non-geographic calls Calls to mobiles International calls UK geographic calls Line rental & bundled calls Source: Ofcom / operators Page 284 Figure 4.33

35 Fixed broadband services

36 35 Fibre broadband lines up 1.3 million in 2014 Connections (millions) Others Fibre Cable LLU-ADSL Non-LLU ADSL Source: Ofcom / operators Page 288 Figure 4.39

37 36 One in three fixed broadband lines now superfast Connections (millions) As a proportion of all connections (%) Connections 30Mbit/s (left axis) As a proportion of all connections (right axis) Source: Ofcom / operators Page 291 Figure 4.42

38 37 Superfast broadband available to 83% of UK premises Proportion of premises 100% 80% 60% NGA broadband services 40% 20% 90% 92% 83% 88% 67% 37% Superfast broadband services 0% UK UK Urban UK Rural Source: Ofcom / Openreach / Virgin Media / Kcom Nations reports Figure 4.4/4.5

39 38 Average price of a fixed broadband line increased in real terms in 2014 per month % -2.1% +0.8% +1.6% +0.8% +9.6% Annual change Mbit/s (April) 6.2Mbit/s (November) 7.6Mbit/s (November) 12.0Mbit/s (November) 17.8Mbit/s (November) 22.8Mbit/s (November) Average actual speed Source: Ofcom / operators Page 314 Figure 4.71

40 39 Superfast take-up driving fixed internet revenue growth Revenue 5bn 4.9bn 4bn 3.2bn 3.3bn 3.5bn 3.8bn 4.2bn Broadband 3bn 4.9bn 2bn 3.2bn 3.3bn 3.5bn 3.8bn 4.2bn Narrowband 1bn 0bn 0.1bn 0.1bn Source: Ofcom / operators Page 287 Figure 4.38

41 Mobile telecoms

42 41 Use of mobile data services is increasing Proportion of mobile users using service 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 56% 52% 47% 40% 51% 45% 36% 29% 43% 39% 32% 23% 41% 40% 35% 34% 29% 26% 19% 19% 25% 26% % % Web browsing ing Social networking Downloading apps Instant messaging Watching video clips Source: Ofcom Technology Tracker Page 322 Figure 4.81

43 42 Almost 90% of premises have outdoor 4G mobile coverage from at least one operator Proportion of premises with outdoor 4G coverage 100% 90% 80% 60% 40% 42% 20% 0% Coverage from at least one national 4G network Coverage from at all four national 4G networks Source: Infrastructure report Nations reports Figure 4.8

44 43 UK 4G subscribers pass 23 million mark 4G subscriptions (millions) 25 % of all subscriptions that are 4G 28% 30% % 19% 23% 20% 4G subscription numbers (millions) % 1% 2.7 Q Q Q Q Q Q % 0% 4G subscriptions as % of total Source: Ofcom / operators Page 257 Figure 4.2

45 44 4G users are more active on their smartphones Proportion who do each activity on a smartphone 100% 4G users Smartphone owners without 4G access 80% 60% 40% 20% 71% 65% 66% 56% 63% 50% 57% 55% 55% 51% 40% 33% 35% 37% 47% 38% 28% 28% 28% 20% 0% Accessing social networking sites Using online maps Instant messaging Source: Ofcom Research, Connected Devices Audio-visual activities Online banking Making purchases online Uploading photos/video content Audio activities Using Twitter Internet calls Page Figures 1.62, 1.63, 1.64

46 45 Mobile subscriptions up 1.6 million in 2014 Subscriptions (millions) M2M Dedicated mobile broadband Mobile handset Source: Ofcom / operators. Page 296 Figure 4.49

47 46 Total outgoing mobile call minutes increased by 2.0% in 2014 Billions Other calls International Off-net mobile On-net mobile UK geographic Source: Ofcom / operators Page 294 Figure 4.47

48 47 The real price of a basket of mobile services continued to fall by in 2014 per month (2014 prices) Metered messaging Metered voice Rental & bundled services Source: Ofcom / operators Page 318 Figure 4.76

49 48 Fall in retail mobile revenues from out-ofbundle messaging and calls Revenue 20bn 15bn 10bn 5bn 0bn 15.0bn 15.1bn 15.4bn 15.9bn 15.5bn 15.3bn 1.6bn 1.8bn 2.1bn 2.5bn 2.7bn 2.7bn 2.7bn 2.6bn 2.5bn 2.4bn 1.8bn 1.3bn 4.7bn 4.3bn 3.9bn 3.7bn 3.2bn 2.9bn 6.1bn 6.4bn 6.8bn 7.3bn 7.8bn 8.3bn Out-of bundle data Out-of-bundle messaging Out-of-bundle calls Access and bundled services Source: Ofcom / operators Page 293 Figure 4.45

50 49 Total telecoms revenues fell by 2.0% in 2014 Revenue 50bn 40bn 41.3bn 40.4bn 39.9bn 39.4bn 2.8bn 2.7bn 2.8bn 2.7bn 38.1bn 2.7bn 37.4bn 2.6bn Corporate data services 30bn 15.0bn 15.1bn 15.4bn 15.9bn 15.6bn 15.3bn Retail mobile 20bn 10bn 0bn 12.9bn 12.7bn 12.5bn 12.6bn 12.8bn 13.3bn 10.6bn 9.9bn 9.2bn 8.2bn 7.0bn 6.2bn Retail fixed Wholesale services Source: Ofcom / operators / IDC Page 280 Figure 4.27

51 50 Internet and online content Steven Cape, Senior Analyst, Market Intelligence

52 51 Smartphone and laptop ownership on par Household take-up 80% 60% 40% 20% 61% 62% 51% 44% 39% 41% 24% 11% 63% 66% 61% 65% 54% 44% 35% 34% Smartphone Laptop Tablet PC 0% Source: Ofcom research Page 28 Figure 1.5

53 52 Smartphones are the most important device for accessing the internet Internet users 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 4% 14% 8% 11% 11% 17% 27% 19% 22% 21% 25% 22% 30% 33% 60% 36% 46% 33% 31% 10% UK Age group Other Desktop Tablet Laptop Smartphone Source: Ofcom research Page 347 Figure 5.20

54 53 Users spend more time online on smartphones than on desktops and laptops Average time spent online in March 2015 (hours) Total digital audience Laptop and desktops All smartphones (browser & app combined) Source: comscore Page 351 Figure 5.22

55 54 51 billion minutes a month on Facebook Total minutes (billions) Facebook Google Sites BBC Sites Apple Inc. Microsoft Sites Yahoo Sites ebay NETFLIX.COM Amazon Sites Sky Sites Source: comscore Page 359 Figure 5.30

56 55 Digital advertising was worth 7.2bn across internet, TV and press brands Advertising expenditure ( millions) Internet 7,194m TV 4,766m 4,911m Press brands 2,961m 655m 3,616m Direct Mail 1,835m Non-Digital Out of home 1,019m Digital Radio 575m Cinema 202m 0m 1000m 2000m 3000m 4000m 5000m 6000m 7000m Source: AA/Warc Expenditure Report Page 375 Figure 5.47

57 56 Digital advertising grew 15% in 2014 Digital advertising expenditure 8,000m 7,194m 6,000m 4,000m 2,000m 0,000m 6,258m 1047m 5,448m 882m 4,822m 818m 4,097m 759m 3,773m 3,364m 3,559m 718m 3,471m 713m 658m 3,087m 2,708m 2,245m 1,942m 2,097m 2,274m 0,697m 0,772m 1,050m 1,280m 1,479m 1,825m Source: IAB / PwC Digital Adspend Other Classifieds Paid for search Display Page 376 Figure 5.48

58 57 Mobile display advertising up 96% Mobile advertising expenditure 2,000m 1,500m 1,000m 0,500m 0,000m 0,203m 137m 0,529m 1,021m 424m 1,625m 19m 769m 153m 837m 581m 365m Other Display Search Source: IAB / PwC Digital Adspend Page 377 Figure 5.49

59 58 Post Steven Cape, Senior Analyst, Market Intelligence

60 59 Total addressed letter revenues are broadly stable Revenue 5,000m 4,000m 3,000m 2,000m 1,000m 4,084m 4,059m 4,156m 4,236m 4,255m 3,936m 2,856m 1,080m 3,905m 3,993m 4,062m 4,055m 2,635m 2,552m 2,568m 2,543m 1,270m 1,441m 1,494m 1,512m 142m 150m 157m 163m 164m 6m 4m 5m 11m 35m 0,000m Total market Royal Mail total Royal Mail end-to-end* Royal Mail access Access operators End-to-end operators Source: Ofcom / operators Page 390 Figure 6.11

61 60 and volume decline has slowed Volume (million items) 18,000 15,567 12,000 8,650 6,000 6,906 14,598 13,482 12,874 12,681 7,166 7,228 7,185 7,098 7,423 6,236 5,633 5,424 Total mail Royal Mail endto-end* Royal Mail access Source: Ofcom / operators Other operators end-to-end letters Page 391 Figure 6.12

62 61 Access mail volumes have fallen Year on year growth rate of access volumes 13.1% 3.8% 0.9% -0.6% -1.2% Proportion of access in total mail volume 60% 40% 20% 44% 49% 54% 56% 56% 0% Source: Ofcom / operators Page 392 Figure 6.14

63 62 Online shoppers value free, quick and efficient deliveries % of respondents stating each factor Offers free delivery 56% Deliveries are quick and efficient 49% Offers click & collect in store 28% Offers range of delivery options 26% The provider used for delivery 11% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Source: YouGov Page 383 Figure 6.3

64 63..and they like to have tracking and notification features in place % of respondents stating each feature confirmation at all stages of delivery Tracking of parcel/goods in real time 63% 61% Texts with exact time of product delivery Click and collect One hour time slots for delivery 40% 39% 43% Delivery options which include Sundays Able to amend delivery details after order 32% 32% Delivery to alternative collection points 24% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Source: YouGov Page 384 Figure 6.4

65 64 But a majority are not prepared to pay % of respondents that would be prepared to pay for each feature Faster delivery time 16% Specified delivery time 14% Real time tracking 6% Change delivery details after order 4% Not prepared to pay to upgrade at all 60% 0% 20% 40% 60% Source: YouGov Page 385 Figure 6.5

66 Questions? 65

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