Emirates NBD (ENBD) Strong Buy. Target Price AED10.0. Global Research Investment Update Equity UAE Banking Sector 31 January, 2016

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1 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Global Research Investment Update Equity UAE Banking Sector 31 January, 2016 Market Data Bloomberg Code: Emirates UH Reuters Code: ENBD.DU CMP (31 Jan 2016): AED7.69 O/S (mn) 5,557.8 Market Cap (AED mn): 42,739.3 Market Cap (USD mn): 11,632.8 P/E 2016e (x): 5.8 P/Bv 2016e (x): 0.9 Price Performance 1-Yr High (AED): Low (AED): 6.25 Average Volume ( 000): 757 1m 3m 12m Absolute (%) Relative (%) Price Volume Performance 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Strong Buy Target Price AED10.0 ENBD achieved robust bottom-line growth in 2015 Despite conservative stance on provisions, 12% earnings CAGR seen Strong ROE deserves higher trading multiples, strong upside potential Fair value revised down; recommendation maintained at STRONG BUY ENBD has closed another excellent year in 2015, highlighting 3 consecutive years of exceptionally high double digit growth ( CAGR: 41%). We expect things to slow down now on the back of decelerating loans growth and heavy provisions. Our conservative stance on the escalation in NIMs has also not helped top-line growth either. Despite all that, bottom line growth is projected to remain healthy with an 11.7% CAGR over our forecast horizon. We understand that ENBD which has a rep. office in Iran is positioned very well to exploit the lifting of sanctions against the country, leading to improved volumes and fees. With a sizeable presence of CASA deposits (56% of total), the bank will be able to contain its cost of funds in an increasing interest rate scenario leading to positive impact on NIMs. We see the net interest income of the bank growing at a CAGR of 12.9% from e. We have penalized the bank strongly in terms of NPL formation, taking our cue from the weakening economic backdrop and the much-in-the-news SME fallout; noteworthy, the bank has remained unscathed so far. Despite all our conservatism, the bank is expected to generate an above-average ROE ranging from 16% - 17% over the forecast period. Due to the recent slide in the markets, the bank is currently trading at enticing multiples; 2016e P/E of 5.8x and 2016e P/BV of 0.9x as compared to the industry average of 9.1x and 1.3x respectively, offering a tremendous upside potential even on relative basis. These trading multiples seem more unjustified since the bank is seen generating a decent ROE of 16.3% in 2016e. Having incorporated a higher discount rate and having lowered our projections, we have slashed our price target by 17.4% to AED10.0/share from our earlier price target of AED12.15/share. We nevertheless maintain STRONG BUY rating on the stock with an upside potential of 31% from current levels, given a 24% slide in price over the last 3 months. Volume ('000) Source: Bloomberg Naveed Ahmed, CFA Senior Manager Tel.: (965) Global Investment House ENBD (AED) Valuation update fair value reduced, maintain STRONG BUY We have cut our fair value estimate for ENBD mainly due to a rise in the cost of equity driven by higher interest rates and an increase in our risk perception for the country coupled with lower projections. We maintain that being the largest bank in Dubai and the UAE, ENBD stands as the chief financier of the development work required for the Expo However, being over-exposed to the Government of Dubai, against restrictions set by CBUAE's large exposure limits, the bank will need to roll out its strategy carefully. We have reduced our fair value estimate for ENBD to AED10.0/share from AED12.2/share. Our fair value estimate for the stock indicates 31% upside from the bank s current market price as on 31 January, We assumed risk-free rate (US 10-yr Treasury yield) at 2.1% and risk premium at 10.6%, including the country- and stock-specific risk. We maintain our STRONG BUY rating on the stock with a very optimistic outlook. Estimates for 2016e revised down We have revised our estimate for most line items from the balance sheet and income statement after the release of ENBD s FY15 results. We have increased our deposit estimate by 3.0% which would rationalize the loan to deposit ratio further. Loan growth assumption was also raised by 3.0%. We revised our net interest income projections upwards, considering a slower yet stable loan growth and increase in NIMs. We have

2 Global Research UAE opted to take a more stringent view of provisions than what we did previously, hence raised the expectations for provisions. Overall our bottom-line projection for 2016e has been revised down marginally by 1.8%. Estimates Revision e AED mn Earlier Estimates Revised Estimates % Change Loans 301, , % Deposits 295, , % Net Interest Income 10,781 11, % Operating Income 15,871 16, % Provisions 3,231 3, % Net Profit 7,455 7, % Source: Company Accounts, Global Research The bank achieved robust profit growth in 4Q15 ENBD reported a robust 74%YoY growth in its bottom-line in 4Q15, mainly due to moderate growth in operating income and a huge fall in its provision expenses. Top-line achieved 8%YoY growth with the improvement attributable to lending growth, favorable shift in the asset mix and growth in CASA deposits. NIM was flat on YoY basis; however, witnessed a 7bpsQoQ improvement as treasury was able to profitably deploy excess liquidity at attractive yields. This, coupled with a widening in deposit spreads, more than offset the impact of rising EIBOR rates on loan spreads. Furthermore, fee income and forex & related income led to rise in non-interest income (29%YoY), which supported the bottom-line growth. Costs increased 15%YoY due to staff costs linked with changing business volumes. The bank s cost to income ratio remained at 33.3% in 4Q15 as compared to 33.1% in 4Q14, a slight increase; however, provisions fell 49%YoY, which boosted the bottom-line. On QoQ basis, profitability improved 28% due to 27%QoQ decline in provisions. Non-interest income grew 39%QoQ, added to the bottom-line. Net-interest income grew 3%on QoQ basis. In 2015, the bank witnessed 39%YoY growth in bottom-line, due to 32%YoY fall in provision expenses. Net interest income rose 8%YoY during the year, while non-interest income with associate income was flat. Asset quality improved during the year substantiated further by an improvement in coverage ratio, while balance sheet growth was strong; during the year, net loans grew 10%YoY while deposits rose 11%YoY. Loan to deposit ratio was at 94.2% in 4Q15 as compared to 95.2% in 4Q14. NPL ratio was reduced to 7.1% in 4Q15 from 7.9% in 4Q14, whereas NPL coverage ratio stood at 111.5% in 4Q15 as compared to 99.6% in 4Q14. ENBD's BoD has recommended an annual dividend of AED0.40/share for 2015, up from AED0.35/share proposed for 2014, which indicates a payout ratio of 31%. Income Statement AED mn 4Q15 4Q14 YoY 3Q15 QoQ FY15 FY14 YoY Interest Income 3, , % 3, % 13, , % Interest Expense % % 3, , % Net Interest Income 2, , % 2, % 10, , % Fees & Commission Income % % 2, , % Foreign Exchange Gains % % 1, , % Gains from Investments % % % Other Income % % 1, % Non-Interest Income 1, , % 1, % 5, , % Operating Expenses 1, , % 1, % 4, , % Provisions , % % 3, , % Operating Profit 2, , % 1, % 7, , % Taxation & Minority Interest % % % Net Profit attributable to parent 2, , % 1, % 7, , % Source: Company Accounts January

3 Ratio Analysis Balance Sheet Income Statement Global Research UAE Financial Statements (AED mn) e 2017e 2018e 2019e Interest/Financing Income 11,266 12,253 13,275 14,880 16,693 18,699 20,989 Interest Expense/Payment to Depositors (3,127) (2,757) (3,034) (3,568) (4,379) (5,239) (6,235) Net Interest/Financing Income 8,139 9,496 10,241 11,312 12,314 13,460 14,754 Fee & Commission Income 1,959 2,563 2,793 2,961 3,139 3,327 3,526 Investment Income 610 1, Other Income 1,295 1,458 1,914 1,592 1,672 1,755 1,843 Total Non-Interest/Financing Income 3,864 5,156 5,153 4,815 5,141 5,449 5,754 Total Operating Income 12,003 14,652 15,394 16,127 17,456 18,909 20,508 Provisions expense (4,713) (4,995) (3,406) (3,492) (3,746) (3,985) (3,660) Operating Expenses (4,194) (4,389) (4,719) (5,148) (5,638) (6,091) (6,690) Profit Before Taxation 3,095 5,268 7,269 7,486 8,071 8,834 10,158 Sale of associate (net) Taxation & Minority Interest (41) (130) (145) (166) (179) (196) (225) Net Profit Attributable to Parent 3,256 5,139 7,123 7,321 7,892 8,637 9,933 Cash Balances 38,355 56,639 54,975 65,874 68,950 73,445 81,270 Deposits with Banks & FIs 20,587 19,812 39,837 44,469 46,692 47,937 45,758 Investment Securities 17,510 15,312 17,605 19,238 22,730 26,906 31,902 Gross Loans & Financings 261, , , , , , ,207 Loan Loss Reserve (22,967) (23,244) (25,772) (29,172) (32,923) (37,015) (40,799) Net Loans & Financings 238, , , , , , ,408 Investment in Associates 1,631 1,781 1,615 1,696 1,781 1,870 1,963 Investment Properties 1,186 1, Net Fixed Assets 2,758 2,660 2,396 2,174 2,077 1,975 1,868 Other Assets 21,690 19,630 18,745 18,667 18,620 18,605 18,622 Total Assets 342, , , , , , ,320 Deposits from Banks & FIs 23,637 15,386 18,823 19,764 20,752 21,790 22,879 Deposits from Customers 239, , , , , , ,527 Other Borrowings 31,494 39,883 44,685 49,656 48,965 48,414 47,872 Other Liabilities 13,238 12,207 14,549 14,700 14,629 14,595 14,597 Paid-up Capital 5,558 5,558 5,558 5,558 5,558 5,558 5,558 Retained Earnings 9,826 13,031 17,567 22,053 27,110 32,913 39,734 Other Reserves 18,679 18,692 18,141 18,141 18,141 18,141 18,141 Shareholders' Equity 34,062 37,281 41,266 45,752 50,809 56,612 63,433 Minority Interest Total Equity & Liability 342, , , , , , ,320 Return on Average Assets 1.0% 1.5% 1.9% 1.7% 1.8% 1.8% 2.0% Return on Average Equity 9.8% 14.4% 18.1% 16.8% 16.3% 16.1% 16.5% Recurring Income/Operating Income 84.1% 82.3% 84.7% 88.5% 88.5% 88.8% 89.1% Interest Earning/Financing Assets Yield 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.2% 4.4% 4.6% 4.8% Cost of Funds 1.1% 0.9% 0.9% 1.0% 1.2% 1.3% 1.5% Net Spread 3.0% 3.2% 3.1% 3.2% 3.3% 3.3% 3.4% Cost to Income Ratio 34.9% 30.0% 30.7% 31.9% 32.3% 32.2% 32.6% Net Loans to Customer Deposits 99.5% 95.2% 94.2% 92.5% 91.8% 91.4% 91.2% Non Performing Loans 36,112 21,111 20,842 22,776 25,756 27,647 29,024 Loan Loss Reserve 20,766 20,777 23,239 26,517 30,107 33,974 37,516 NPLs to Gross Loans 13.9% 7.9% 7.1% 7.4% 7.9% 7.8% 7.6% NPL Coverage 57.5% 98.4% 111.5% 116.4% 116.9% 122.9% 129.3% Provisions/Total Income 39.3% 34.1% 22.1% 21.7% 21.5% 21.1% 17.8% Cost of Risk (bps) Equity to Gross Loans 13.0% 13.8% 13.9% 14.7% 15.4% 15.9% 16.5% Equity to Total Assets 10.0% 10.3% 10.1% 10.5% 11.1% 11.6% 12.1% DPS Dividend Yield 3.9% 3.9% 5.4% 5.2% 5.2% 5.9% 5.9% Dividend Payout Ratio 42.6% 37.8% 31.2% 30.4% 28.2% 29.0% 25.2% Adjusted EPS (AED) Adjusted BVPS (AED) Market Price (AED) * P/E Ratio (x) P/BV Ratio (x) Source: Company Reports & Global Research * Market price for 2016 and subsequent years as per closing prices on DFM on 31 January, 2016 January

4 Global Research UAE Disclosure The following is a comprehensive list of disclosures which may or may not apply to all our researches. Only the relevant disclosures which apply to this particular research has been mentioned in the table below under the heading of disclosure. Disclosure Checklist Company Recommendation Bloomberg Ticker Reuters Ticker Price Disclosure STRONG BUY Emirates UH ENBD.DU AED7.69 1,10 1. Global Investment House did not receive and will not receive any compensation from the company or anyone else for the preparation of this report. 2. The company being researched holds more than 5% stake in Global Investment House. 3. Global Investment House makes a market in securities issued by this company. 4. Global Investment House acts as a corporate broker or sponsor to this company. 5. The author of or an individual who assisted in the preparation of this report (or a member of his/her household) has a direct ownership position in securities issued by this company. 6. An employee of Global Investment House serves on the board of directors of this company. 7. Within the past year, Global Investment House has managed or co-managed a public offering for this company, for which it received fees. 8. Global Investment House has received compensation from this company for the provision of investment banking or financial advisory services within the past year. 9. Global Investment House expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from this company in the next three month. 10. Please see special footnote below for other relevant disclosures. Global Research: Equity Ratings Definitions Global Rating Definition STRONG BUY BUY HOLD SELL Fair value of the stock is >20% from the current market price Fair value of the stock is between +10% and +20% from the current market price Fair value of the stock is between +10% and -10% from the current market price Fair value of the stock is < -10% from the current market price Disclaimer This material was produced by Global Investment House KSCC ( Global ), a firm regulated by the Central Bank of Kuwait and the Capital Markets Authority (Kuwait). This document is not to be used or considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Global may, from time to time to the extent permitted by law, participate or invest in other financing transactions with the issuers of the securities ( securities ), perform services for or solicit business from such issuer, and/or have a position or effect transactions in the securities or options thereof. Global may, to the extent permitted by applicable Kuwaiti law or other applicable laws or regulations, effect transactions in the securities before this material is published to recipients. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived by Global from sources believed to be reliable, but Global has not independently verified the contents of this document. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to and no reliance should be placed on the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained in this document. Global accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. This document is not to be relied upon or used in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. Global shall have no responsibility or liability whatsoever in respect of any inaccuracy in or omission from this or any other document prepared by Global for, or sent by Global to any person and any such person shall be responsible for conducting his own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this document and of evaluating the merits and risks involved in the securities forming the subject matter of this or other such document. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment and are subject to change without prior notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to subscribe for or purchase any securities, and neither this document nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever. It is being furnished to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Neither this report nor any copy hereof may be distributed in any jurisdiction outside Kuwait where its distribution may be restricted by law. Persons who receive this report should make themselves aware of and adhere to any such restrictions. By accepting this report you agree to be bound by the foregoing limitations. January

5 Global Investment House Website: Global Tower Sharq, Al-Shuhada Str. Tel. + (965) Fax. + (965) P.O. Box: Safat, Kuwait Research Naveed Ahmed, CFA (965) Wealth Management Rasha Al-Qenaei (965) Global Kuwait Tel: (965) Fax: (965) P.O.Box Safat, Kuwait Global Egypt Tel: (202) /06 Fax: (202) Cleopatra St., Heliopolis, Cairo Global Bahrain Tel: (973) Fax: (973) P.O.Box 855 Manama, Bahrain Global Saudi Arabia Tel: (966) Fax: (966) P.O. Box Riyadh 11586, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Global UAE Tel: (971) Fax: (971) P.O.Box Dubai, UAE Global Jordan Tel: (962) Fax: (962) P.O.Box 3268 Amman 11180, Jordan Global Wealth Manager Tel: (965)

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