ISBANK EARNINGS PRESENTATION 2016 Q1

Transcription

1 ISBANK EARNINGS PRESENTATION 2016 Q1

2 2016 Q1 Recent Developments in the Economy Binler Global Outlook Main Indicators of Turkey US EA Moderate expansion in the US economy Solid labor market data Still accommodative monetary policy stance Continued downside risks to Euro Area economy Looser monetary policy by the ECB Ongoing concerns over inflation outlook Contributions to GDP (pp) Consumption Net Exports Investment Stocks Current Account (12-m, bn USD) FDI & Long Term Portfolio & Short Term CAD EM Rebalancing of the Chinese economy The upturn in capital flows to emerging markets Recovery in commodity prices Domestic Outlook Annual CPI Inflation (%) Currency Basket and VIX Mild and steady economic activity Leading indicators signaling a moderate economic growth CA deficit at 30.5 bn USD, the lowest level since mid-2010 Budget posted surplus in Q1 More favorable inflation outlook Correction in food price inflation Appreciation of the TL Geopolitical risks VIX (0.5USD+0.5EUR) (right axis) Jan.2016 Feb.2016 Mar

3 Period s Highlights Increased focus on selective lending, 35 bps QoQ rise in the TL loan yield Securities portfolio made positive contribution to asset growth, whereas the impact of TL appreciation on growth was negative. Decline in loan to deposit ratio in the quarter QoQ decline in NPL flows and net NPL formation rate Share of deposits increased to 57% in total liabilities. YoY growth in NII was 27.3% with NIM rising to 4.1% by the end of Q1. Quarterly increase in TL and FX spreads Strong growth in F&C income continued >15% YoY growth 3

4 Asset Structure Assets (TL mn.) 2015 Q Q1 YtD YoY Cash & Banks ,0% 11,5% Securities (Net) ,4% 7,9% Loans ,0% 6,4% Participations (Net) ,4% 7,7% Fixed Assets (Net) (*) ,5% NM Other Assets ,2% 60,1% Total Assets ,1% 9,1% TL Assets ,3% 8,0% FX Assets ,8% 11,0% FX Assets (USD mn.) ,6% 3,0% Asset Composition 92,6% 91,3% 90,8% 11,4% 12,0% 11,7% 17,1% 16,2% 16,9% IEA / Total Assets Cash & Banks Securities 65,1% 64,2% 63,5% Loans Participations & Other Assets 6,3% 7,5% 7,9% 2015 Q Q1 (*) Accounting policy for real estate portfolio changed to mark-to-market valuation in 2015 Q3. 4

5 Loan Portfolio Loans (TL bn.) 6,4% 6,5% -1,0% -1,5% 6,2% 104,6 112,2 113,1 113,1 111,5 60,1 62,3 67,0 164,8 174,4 180,2 177,0 175,3-1,5% -0,1% 3,4% 63,9 63,9 23,4 23,5 22,5 22,3 23,1 (1) TL Loans FX Loans FX Loans (USD bn.) Total Loans Loans/Deposits 2015 Q Q Q Q1 Share of loans in total assets is 63,5%. 114,1% 115,1% 110,1% 110,6% 111,1% 106,9% Comfortable level of Loans/Deposits ratio Adjusted Loans/Deposits ratio is 106,9%. (2) 2015 Q Q1 Loans / Deposits Loans / Deposits (Adj.) (2) (1) FX loans expressed in USD equivalent. (2) TL securities issued added to deposits. 5

6 Loan Portfolio Loans (TL mn.) 2015 Q Q1 YtD YoY Total Loans ,0% 6,4% TL Loans ,5% 6,5% Retail Loans ,6% 3,7% Housing Loans ,1% 8,6% Auto Loans ,6% -17,5% GPLs (1) ,4% -3,2% Credit Card Loans ,2% 13,0% Non-Retail Loans ,4% 8,7% SME Loans (2) ,3% 5,1% Commercial and Corporate Loans ,6% 14,4% FX Loans ,1% 6,2% SME Loans (2) ,3% 3,9% Commercial and Corporate Loans ,1% 6,3% FX Loans (USD mn.) ,4% -1,5% SME Loans (2) ,0% -3,6% Commercial and Corporate Loans ,5% -1,4% (1) Including overdraft accounts (2) SME definition includes companies with number of employees < 250 and turnover or total assets <= TL 40 mn. 6

7 Loan Composition Currency Mix Loan Composition - Total Loans 36,5% 36,1% 36,4% 63,5% 63,9% 63,6% FX TL 21,4% 20,6% 20,4% 5,6% 5,9% 5,9% 24,0% 23,8% 23,7% 49,0% 49,7% 50,0% (1) Consumer (2) Credit Cards (3) SME Commercial & Corporate 2015 Q Q Q Q1 Loan Composition - TL Loans Loan Composition - FX Loans 42,5% 41,4% 41,3% Retail (4) 4,0% 4,0% 3,9% (3) SME 35,6% 35,0% 35,1% 21,9% 23,6% 23,6% (3) SME Commercial & Corporate 96,0% 96,0% 96,1% Commercial & Corporate 2015 Q Q1 (1) Including retail overdraft accounts (2) Shows retail credit card balances only (3) SME definition includes companies with number of employees < 250 and turnover or total assets <= TL 40 mn. (4) Including retail credit cards and overdraft accounts 2015 Q Q1 7

8 Asset Quality NPL Ratio Gross CoR (1) is 102 bps as of 2016 Q1. Coverage ratio is 76,5%. 1,5% 1,6% 1,7% 2,0% 2,2% 19,8% collection rate (2) in 2016 Q1 15 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 16 Q1 NPL Trends (3) (TL mn.) 0,71% 0,69% 0,68% 1,06% 0,74% NPL Sales (TL thousand) Period Amount Revenue 16 Q Q Q Q Q Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 16 Q1 Net NPL Formation Rate (4) Additions Recoveries Net NPL Formation (1) (Specific Loan Loss Provisions + General Loan Loss Provisions ) / Average Performing Loans (2) Collections / (Prior period ending balance NPL + Additions) (3) Calculations are on quarterly basis. (4) Net NPL Formation / Average Performing Loans 8

9 Securities Portfolio Securities Composition of Securities (2016 Q1) TL Securities FX Securities (TL mn.) 2015 Q Q1 YtD YoY 7,8% Total Securities ,4% 7,9% TL Securities ,3% 3,4% FX Securities ,3% 28,1% 60,0% 92,2% Floating Fixed FX Securities (USD mn) ,8% 18,8% 40,0% Yield of Securities (Quarterly) (*) 8,53% 8,74% 8,87% 9,12% 9,63% 5,04% 4,46% 4,61% 3,99% 4,01% 28,9% share of CPI linkers in total portfolio 315 mn TL interest revenue and 9.73% yield on CPI linkers portfolio Average durations: 1,75 years for TL securities 5,64 years for FX securities 15 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 16 Q1 (TL mn.) 15 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 16 Q1 TL Securities FX Securities Interest Inc. from CPI Linkers (*) Based on MIS data 9

10 Liabilities Structure Liabilities (TL mn.) 2015 Q Q1 YtD YoY Deposits ,6% 9,3% REPOs & Money Market ,2% 13,1% Funds Borrowed ,9% 10,6% Securities Issued ,4% -1,2% Other (*) ,2% 1,3% Equity ,2% 17,1% Total Liabilities & Equity ,1% 9,1% TL Liabilities ,1% 8,3% FX Liabilities ,2% 10,2% FX Liabilities (USD bn.) ,2% 2,2% Liabilities Composition 81,8% 82,0% 81,2% 57,1% 55,8% 57,2% 6,1% 7,3% 6,3% 10,1% 10,3% 10,2% 7,2% 7,2% 6,5% 11,3% 11,6% 12,1% 8,3% 7,8% 7,7% 2015 Q Q1 (*) Includes subordinated debt. IBL / Total Liabilities Deposits Repos & Money Market Funds Borrowed Securities Issued Equity Other (*) 10

11 Deposits 21,6% 20,7% 20,6% 22,9% 21,0% 21,5% 24,7% 22,2% 22,8% 23,7% 22,6% 22,6% 21,6% 24,4% 22,6% Deposits (TL mn.) 2015 Q Q1 YtD YoY Total Deposits ,6% 9,3% TL Deposits ,5% 4,4% TL Saving Deposits ,7% 3,5% TL Commercial Deposits ,1% 17,0% Other TL Deposits ,1% -15,8% FX Deposits ,0% 14,6% FX Deposits (USD mn.) ,4% 6,3% Demand Deposits ,7% 19,6% Demand Deposits / Total Deposits Demand Deposits Market Share 15,1% 15,0% 16,2% 15,2% 15,1% 15,2% 15,1% 15 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q Q1 (*) TL FX Total (*) 15 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q Q1 (*) Excluding interbank deposits 11

12 Sufficient Capitalization ,9% ,6% ,5% ,2% ,2% ,0% ,65% ,4% ,46% ,9% Capital Adequacy Ratio RWAs vs. Regulatory Capital (TL mn.) -19 bps 15 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q Q1 CAR Tier I Ratio Impacts on CAR (bps) 2016 Q1 Regulation Impact -58 Changes on the Treatment of Tier 2 Borrowing Instruments Buffers (%) 2016 Capital Conservation Buffer Counter Cyclical Buffer SIFI Buffer (*) - Group Free Provisions -34 Other Regulation Impacts +51 Dividend Payment -33 Currency Impact +13 MtM Differences +51 Profit for the Period & Change in RWA +8 TOTAL Q1 15 Q2 15 Q Q1 RWAs Regulatory Capital Capital adequacy ratio is well above the regulatory limit. Comfortable level of capital (*) Taken into consideration only on a consolidated basis 12

13 Income Statement Highlights (TL mn.) 2015 Q Q Q1 QoQ YoY Net Interest Income ,8% 27,3% (-) SWAP Cost (1) ,8% 186,4% Net Interest Income Incl. Swap Cost ,1% 18,5% Net Fees & Commissions ,0% 15,6% Net Trading Gains/Losses Excl. Swap Cost NM NM Dividends Received NM 127,3% Released Provisions ,6% -51,7% Other Operating Income ,6% 103,0% Total Operating Income ,5% 4,5% (-) Reversal of Provisions for Tax Disputes (-) Free Provision Reversal Total Operating Income - Adj ,8% 12,0% HR Expenses ,7% 16,2% Non-HR Expenses ,2% 6,2% Total Operating Expenses ,2% 10,7% (-) Fee Rebates ,4% -35,5% (-) Additional Provision for Pension Fund Total Operating Expenses - Adj ,5% 12,9% Operating Profit ,0% -0,3% Operating Profit - Adj ,5% 11,3% Specific Loan Loss Provisions ,8% 11,7% General Provisions ,0% -97,9% Other Provision Charges NM NM Total Provision Charges ,3% 0,5% (-) Provisions for Payment to SDIF Total Provision Charges - Adj ,7% -21,3% Tax Provisions ,8% -31,2% NII incl. swap cost : 18.5% YoY growth Net F&C : 15.6% YoY growth Core banking income (2) increased by 17.6% YoY OPEX 10.7% increase YoY, in line with the budget Adj. operating profit up by 11.2% YoY Net Income ,6% 6,2% NM: Not meaningful (1) Based on MIS data (2) Core Banking Income = NII + Net F&C + Net Trading Gains / Losses 13

14 Commissions Income Performance (TL thousand) 2015 Q Q1 YoY Non-Cash Loans ,0% (*) Cash Loans ,6% Mutual Fund Man. & Other Inv. Acc. Fees ,9% Credit Cards (Net) ,5% Fund Transfer (Net) ,2% Insurance ,0% Account Keeping Fees ,1% Other ,8% Total Fees & Commissions Income (Net) ,6% Total Fees & Commissions Income (Gross) ,9% Net Fee & Commission Composition Diversified fees & commissions base 28,3% 28,0% 8,8% 8,1% 37,1% 40,3% Lending Related Fees Mutual Fund Man. & Other Inv. Acc. Fees Credit Cards (*) 25,8% 23,7% Other 2015 Q Q1 (*) Includes refinancing fees 14

15 Margin & Spreads (1) NIM (2) (Cumulative) TL Loan-Deposit Spread (Quarterly) NIM NIM - Swap Adjusted 4,06% 3,63% 3,64% 3,74% 3,80% 3,43% 3,37% 3,36% 3,39% 3,58% 12,42% 12,16% 12,58% 13,26% 13,61% 7,36% 7,52% 7,49% 8,04% 8,38% 5,06% 4,64% 5,09% 5,22% 5,24% Loan Yield Deposit Cost TL Spread 15 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q Q1 15 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 16 Q1 NIM (2) (Quarterly) FX Loan-Deposit Spread (Quarterly) NIM NIM - Swap Adjusted 3,91% 4,00% 4,06% 3,63% 3,43% 3,66% 3,30% 3,35% 3,48% 3,58% 5,06% 4,92% 5,26% 4,85% 4,89% 1,40% 1,46% 1,36% 1,26% 1,24% 3,66% 3,46% 3,90% 3,59% 3,65% Loan Yield Deposit Cost FX Spread 15 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q Q1 15 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 16 Q1 (1) Based on MIS data (2) Interest earning assets include Central Bank reserves. 15

16 Profitability and Efficiency Ratios (1) ROAA ROAE 1,51% 1,17% 1,16% 13,02% 10,40% 10,31% 2015 Q Q1 Cost / Income 2015 Q Q1 Cost / Average Assets 50,3% 52,0% 52,6% 46,9% 47,0% 47,0% 2,50% 2,41% 2,39% 2,26% 2,11% 2,12% 2015 Q Q1 Reported Adjusted (2) 2015 Q Q1 (2) Reported Adjusted (1) Calculations are based on trailing four quarters data. (2) Adjusted for non-recurring and other items given in Appendix-2 on page 19 and real estate revaluation. 16

17 Q&A 17

18 Appendix 1 Quarterly Income Statement Highlights (TL mn.) 2015 Q Q Q Q Q1 QoQ Interest Income ,9% Interest Expense ,8% Net Interest Income ,8% Net Fees & Commissions ,0% Net Trading Gains/Losses ,8% Dividends Received NM (*) Released Provisions ,6% Other Operating Income ,6% Total Operating Income ,5% Personnel Expenses ,7% Other Operational Expenses ,7% Depreciation & Amortization ,9% (*) Other Expenses ,3% Total Operating Expenses ,2% Operating Profit ,0% Loan Loss Provisions ,8% General Provisions ,0% (*) Other Provision Charges ,5% Total Provision Charges (Excl. Tax Prov.) ,3% Tax Provisions ,8% Net Income ,6% (*) See Appendix-2 for non-recurring and other items on page 19. NM: Not meaningful 18

19 Appendix 2 Non-recurring and Other Items (TL mn.) 2015 Q Q Q Q Q1 Released Provisions Reversal of provisions for tax disputes 207 Free provision reversal 200 Non-HR Expenses Fee rebates Loss on asset sale 154 Provision for administrative fine 83 Additional provision for pension fund 277 Other Provision Charges Provisions for payment to SDIF

20 Appendix 3 Market Shares Largest Private Bank Market Shares (%) (1) Rank (2) Q Q1 Total Assets 12,3 12,1 1 st 1 st Total Loans 12,4 12,1 1 st 1 st TL Loans 11,9 11,5 1 st 1 st FX Loans 13,5 13,4 1 st 1 st Consumer Loans (3) 12,5 12,1 2 nd 2 nd Non-Retail Loans 12,3 12,0 1 st 1 st Total Deposits 12,4 12,3 1 st 1 st TL Deposits 10,5 10,9 1 st 1 st FX Deposits 14,7 14,1 1 st 2 nd Demand Deposits 15,2 15,1 1 st 1 st (1) Market share calculations are based on weekly BRSA data excluding participation banks. Total assets market share is based on monthly BRSA data. (2) Ranking among private-sector banks (3) Including retail overdraft accounts 20

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