SUPREME INDUSTRIES LTD Plastic Products HOLD RETAIL EQUITY RESEARCH

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1 Q2FY16 RESULT UPDATE GEOJIT BNP PARIBAS Research RETAIL EQUITY RESEARCH SUPREME INDUSTRIES LTD Plastic Products BSE CODE: NSE CODE: SUPREMEIND Bloomberg CODE: SIL IN SENSEX: 24,470 HOLD CMP Rs725 TARGET Rs768 RETURN 6% 29 th January, 2016 Volume growth tepid...margin expansion positive. Supreme Industries Ltd (SIL) is India s leading player in plastic products, offering wide range of products, including Plastic Piping system, Packaging products, Industrial and Consumer products. In Q2FY16, SIL PAT grew by 133% YoY to Rs82cr. Revenue declined by 6% YoY, owing to de-growth in Industrial segment by -21% YoY and lower commodity prices impacting realisation. EBITDA margins improved by 340bps YoY to 15.5% led by lower Raw Material cost. During the quarter volume growth was tepid at 5% YoY. But we expect pickup in volume to 9% for FY17E. Debt has reduced to Rs272cr from Rs656cr YoY. We value SIL at P/E of 21x on FY18E and increase the target price from Rs704 to Rs768, with a HOLD rating. Q2FY16 Volume growth disappointed...but expected to pick-up... SIL s Q2FY16 revenue declined by -6% YoY, led by de-growth in Industrial segment by -21% YoY and owing lower realisation due to fall in raw material prices. SIL s Packaging and consumer segment revenue grew by 14%& 12.1% YoY, respectively. Volume growth was lower at 5%, but going forward seasonal factors will steer the volume growth. Positively, the share of value added products increased to 42.38% from 38.2%. Management maintains volume growth guidance at 12%-15% for FY16E. We factor SIL s FY16E revenue at Rs28,804 (9months). EBITDA margin to improve further... SIL s consolidated EBITDA margins improved by 340bps YoY to 15.5% vs. 12.1% YoY, largely led lower raw material cost. Gross margins in Plastic piping, Packaging & Consumer segment improved by 540bps, 650bps & 710bps YoY, respectively. We factor EBITDA margins to be at 14.7% for FY16E. Considering lower cost we expect EBITDA margins to expand to 16.7% in FY17E. Other key highlights... SIL s share of profit from Supreme Petro (associate) was at Rs79.3mn. SIL has received an order for supply of 4500 pieces of LPG cylinders from HPCL. Another 2,500 pieces of 5 kilo, 7 kilo and 15 kilo capacity, which is expected to supplied in March. Management expect to launch CPVC fire sprinklers in FY17E. The CAPEX plans for FY16E amounts to Rs2,000mn. Gross debt has reduced to Rs2,723mn Vs Rs6,655mn YoY. Valuations At CMP, SIL is trading at average 1yr fwd P/E of 22x. We believe that going forward volume growth is expected to pick up in plastic piping and packaging segment. Higher contribution from value added products and lower cost will help in expansion of EBITDA margins. SIL s new products (LPG cylinders & fire sprinklers), is likely provide higher revenue trajectory going ahead. We value SIL at 21x on FY18E with a target price of Rs768 and we have a HOLD rating. * SIL changed its financial year-end from June to March effective from FY16, so we have adjusted FY16 estimate to 9MFY16. P/E based on annualised EPS. Company Data Market Cap (mn) Enterprise Value (mn) Rs92,063 Rs94,928 Outstanding Shares (mn) 127 Free Float 50% Dividend Yield 1.3% 52 week high Rs week low Rs540 6m average volume (mn) 0.08 Beta 0.6 Face value Rs2 Shareholding % Q4 FY15 Q1 FY16 Q2 FY16 Promoters FII s MFs/Insti Public Others Total Price Performance 3mth 6mth 1 Year Absolute Return 15.0% 16.0% 22.7% Absolute Sensex -8.2% -13.2% -17.2% Relative Return* 25.3% 33.6% 48.3% *over or under performance to benchmark index SIL Ltd Sensex Rebased Jun-13 Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Y.E June (Rsmn) 9mFY16E * FY17E FY18E Sales Growth (%) (32.3) EBITDA Margins (%) PAT Adj Growth (%) (34.0) Adj.EPS Growth (%) (34.0) P/E P/B EV/EBITDA ROE (%) D/E Anil R Analyst

2 Quarterly Financials Profit & Loss Account (Rs mn) Q2FY16 Q2FY15 YoY Growth % Q1FY16 QoQ Growth % Sales 10,017 10,658 (6.0) 7, EBITDA 1,551 1, EBITDA Margin Depreciation EBIT 1, Interest (44.0) 100 (4.6) Other Income 4 11 (63.1) 15 (73.3) Exceptional Items PBT 1, Tax* Reported PAT Adjustment for profit/loss (asso) 79 (177) - (74) - Adj PAT No. of shares (mn) EPS (Rs) Segment Revenue (Rs mn) Q2FY16 Q2FY15 YoY Growth % Q1FY16 QoQ Growth % Segments Plastic Piping 4,920 4, , Packaging 3,030 2, , Industrial Segment 1,250 1,580 (20.9) 1,404 (11.0) Consumer Composite LPG cylinders Total Segmental Revenue 9,940 9, , Change in Estimates Old estimates New estimates Change % Year / Rsmn FY16E (9months)* FY17E FY16E (9months)* FY17E FY16E FY17E Revenue 3, ,436 28,804 44, EBITDA 4,643 7,761 4,493 7, Margins (%) bps +190bps PAT* 2,003 4,063 2,141 4, EPS* *SIL changed its financial year-end from June to March effective from FY16, so we have adjusted FY16 estimates to 9MFY16.

3 Consolidated Financials Profit & Loss Account Sales 39,622 42,552 28,804 44,066 51,397 % change (32.3) EBITDA 5,888 6, ,359 8,172 % change (32.6) Depreciation 1,016 1,390 1,015 1,358 1,398 EBIT 4,873 5,273 3,478 6,001 6,774 Interest Other Income PBT 4,143 4,718 3,207 5,822 6,663 % change (32.0) Tax 1,400 1,600 1,106 1,985 2,272 Tax Rate (%) Reported PAT 2,834 3,224 2,141 4,046 4,646 Adj* Adj PAT 2,834 3,224 2, ,646 % change (2.3) 13.7 (33.6) No. of shares (mn) Adj EPS (Rs) % change (2.3) 13.7 (33.6) DPS (Rs) CEPS (Rs) Balance Sheet Cash 238 1,790 1,823 3,270 5,466 Accounts Receivable 2,348 2,380 2,514 2,777 3,098 Inventories 4,976 4,647 5,105 5,392 5,820 Other Cur. Assets 2,099 2,224 2,315 2,487 2,619 Investments 1,074 1,207 1,257 1,457 1,657 Gross Fixed Assets 17,394 18,158 20,158 21,008 22,008 Net Fixed Assets 10,820 10,151 11,136 10,628 10,230 CWIP Intangible Assets Def. Tax (Net) (1,168) (895) (776) (561) (315) Other Assets Total Assets 20,627 22,675 24,147 26,072 28,998 Current Liabilities 2,777 3,004 3,574 3,451 3,580 Provisions 1,122 1,657 1,718 1,871 1,971 Debt Funds 3,901 3,315 2,865 2,115 1,365 Other Liabilities 2,435 2,583 2,924 2,711 2,701 Equity Capital Reserves & Surplus 10,138 11,861 12,813 15,670 19,127 Shareholder s Fund 10,392 12,115 13,067 15,924 19,381 Total Liabilities 20,627 22,675 24,147 26,072 28,998 BVPS (Rs) Cash flow Y.E March (Rsmn) FY14A FY15 FY16E* FY17E FY18E Net inc. + Depn. 3,759 4, Non-cash adj (93) Changes in W.C (1401) 765 (54) (691) (651) C.F.O 3,252 6,008 3,277 4,722 5,302 Capital exp. (1,445) (1,936) (1,602) (700) (800) Change in inv (50) (200) (200) Other invest.cf C.F - investing (1,337) (1,860) (1,652) (900) (1,000) Issue of equity Issue/repay debt (403) (750) (750) Dividends paid (1,115) (1,197) (1189) (1189) (1,189) Other finance.cf (789) (870) - (437) (167) C.F - Financing (1,903) (2,596) (1,592) (2,376) (2,106) Chg. in cash 12 1, ,447 2,197 Closing cash 210 1,790 1,823 3,270 5,466 Ratios Profitab. & Return EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net profit mgn.(%) ROE (%) ROCE (%) W.C & Liquidity Receivables (days) Inventory (days) Payables (days) Current ratio (x) Quick ratio (x) Turnover &Levg. Gross asset T.O (x) Total asset T.O (x) Int. covge. ratio (x) Adj. debt/equity (x) Valuation ratios EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) P/BV (x) * SIL changed its financial year-end from June to March effective from FY16, so we have adjusted FY16 estimate to 9MFY16

4 Recommendation Summary (last 3 years) Dates Rating Target Apr-12 Sep-12 Feb-13 Jul-13 Dec-13 May-14 Oct-14 Mar-15 Aug-15 Jan-16 Source: Bloomberg, Geojit BNP Paribas Research 13-Feb -14 Accumulate April-14 Hold July-14 Accumulate Oct-14 Hold Jan-15 Hold May-15 Buy July-15 Accumulate November-15 Accumulate January-16 Hold 768 Investment Rating Criteria Large Cap Stocks; Mid Cap and Small Cap; Buy - Upside is 10% or more. Buy - Upside is 15% or more. Hold - Upside or downside is less than 10%. Accumulate* - Upside between 10% - 15%. Reduce - Downside is 10% or more. Hold - Absolute returns between 0% - 10%. Reduce/Sell - Absolute returns less than 0%. To satisfy regulatory requirements, we attribute Accumulate as Buy and Reduce as Sell. The recommendations are based on 12 month horizon, unless otherwise specified. The investment ratings are on absolute positive/negative return basis. It is possible that due to volatile price fluctuation in the near to medium term, there could be a temporary mismatch to rating. * For reasons of valuations/return/lack of clarity/event we may revisit rating at appropriate time. Please note that the stock always carries the risk of being upgraded to BUY or downgraded to a HOLD, REDUCE or SELL. General Disclosures and Disclaimers CERTIFICATION I, ANIL R author of this Report, hereby certify that all the views expressed in this research report reflect my personal views about any or all of the subject issuer or securities. This report has been prepared by the Research Team of Geojit BNP Paribas Financial Services Limited, hereinafter referred to as GBNPP. COMPANY OVERVIEW Geojit BNP Paribas Financial Services Limited (hereinafter GBNPP), a publically listed company, is engaged in services of retail broking, depository services, portfolio management and marketing investment products including mutual funds, insurance and properties. GBNPP is a SEBI registered Research Entity and as such prepares and shares research data and reports periodically with clients, investors, stake holders and general public in compliance with Securities and Exchange Board of India Act, 1992, Securities And Exchange Board Of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014 and/or any other applicable directives, instructions or guidelines issued by the Regulators from time to time. DISTRIBUTION OF REPORTS This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. GBNPP will not treat the recipients of this report as clients by virtue of their receiving this report. GENERAL REPRESENTATION The research reports do not constitute an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instruments, inducements, promise, guarantee, warranty, or as an official confirmation of any transaction or contractual obligations of any kind. This report is provided for assistance only and is not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision. The information contained herein is from publicly available data or other sources believed to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such. We have also reviewed the research report for any untrue statements of material facts or any false or misleading information. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. RISK DISCLOSURE GBNPP and/or its Affiliates and its officers, directors and employees including the analyst/authors shall not be in any way be responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Investors may lose his/her entire investment under certain market conditions so before acting on any advice or recommendation in these material, investors should consider whether it is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. This report does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation/circumstances and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this document. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. Each recipient of this report should make such investigation as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this report (including the merits and risks involved). The price, volume and income of the investments referred to in this report may fluctuate and investors may realize losses that may exceed their original capital. FUNDAMENTAL DISCLAIMER We have prepared this report based on information believed to be reliable. The recommendations herein are based on 12 month horizon, unless otherwise specified. The investment ratings are on absolute positive/negative return basis. It is possible that due to volatile price fluctuation in the near to medium term, there could be a temporary mismatch to rating. For reasons of valuations/return/lack of clarity/event we may revisit rating at appropriate time. The stocks always carry the risk of being upgraded to buy or downgraded to a hold, reduce or sell. The opinions expressed are subject to change but we have no obligation to tell our clients when our opinions or recommendations change. This report is non-inclusive and does not consider all the information that the recipients may consider material to investments. This report is issued by GBNPP without any liability/undertaking/commitment on the part of itself or any of its entities. 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5 The projections and forecasts described in this report should be evaluated keeping in mind the fact that these are based on estimates and assumptions and will vary from actual results over a period of time. The actual performance of the companies represented in the report may vary from those projected. These are not scientifically proven to guarantee certain intended results and hence, are not published as a warranty and do not carry any evidentiary value whatsoever. These are not to be relied on in or as contractual, legal or tax advice. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. JUSRISDICTION The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. The countries in which the companies mentioned in this report are organized may have restrictions on investments, voting rights or dealings in securities by nationals of other countries. Distributing/taking/sending/dispatching/transmitting this document in certain foreign jurisdictions may be restricted by law, and persons into whose possession this document comes should inform themselves about, and observe any such restrictions. Failure to comply with this restriction may constitute a violation of any foreign jurisdiction laws. Foreign currencies denominated securities are subject to fluctuations in exchange rates that could have an adverse effect on the value or price of or income derived from the investment. Investors in securities such as ADRs, the value of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively assume currency risk. REGULATORY DISCLOSURES: GBNPP s Associates consists of privately held companies such as Geojit Technologies Private Limited (GTPL- Software Solutions provider), Geojit Credits Private Limited (GCPL- NBFC Services provider), Geojit Investment Services Limited (GISL- Corporate Agent for Insurance products), Geojit Financial Management Services Private Limited (GFMSL) & Geojit Financial Distribution Private Limited (GFDPL), (Distributors of Insurance and MF Units).In the context of the SEBI Regulations on Research Analysts (2014), GBNPP affirms that we are a SEBI registered Research Entity and in the course of our business as a stock market intermediary, we issue research reports /research analysis etc that are prepared by our Research Analysts. We also affirm and undertake that no disciplinary action has been taken against us or our Analysts in connection with our business activities. 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