JSW Energy Ltd. Interest expenses dragged the bottom-line BUY. Jan. 25, 2016

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1 JSW Energy Ltd. Interest expenses dragged the bottom-line JSW Energy Ltd. (JSWEL) reported a mixed set of numbers for Q3 FY16 quarter. The company reported a consolidated total operating income of Rs. 26,491.3mn and was in-line with our expectations. Consolidated EBITDA too came in-line with our expectation and stood at Rs. 11,912.7mn. However, on account of higher depreciation and finance charge coupled with higher tax incidence, PAT stood at Rs. 3,206.8mn, as against our estimate of Rs. 5,249.4mn. Q3 FY16 Result Analysis: Improved operating performance: JSWEL reported a thermal PLF of 90.3% in Q3 FY16 as compared to 87% in same quarter a year earlier. With Oct-Dec period being a seasonally weak quarter for hydro assets, the plant achieved an average PLF of 24%. Consequently, consolidated net generation increased by 11.2% Y-o-Y to 5,968mn units, of which 609mn units was contributed by the hydro power plants. On account of truing up of the provisional tariff, RWPL reported 12.4% Y-o-Y decline in power tariff. Average power tariff during the quarter declined by 3.8% Y-o-Y to Rs. 4.1 per unit. Top-line grew by 11.3%: In Sept. 2015, the company completed the integration of the hydro assets and Q3 FY16 was the first full quarter after the integration. Thus, the current and previous quarter financials are not comparable. JSWEL reported a 11.3% Y-o-Y increase in consolidated total operating income to Rs. 26,491.3mn. Sequentially it increased by 4.6%. On a standalone basis, top-line declined by 3.7% Y-o-Y to Rs. 15,976.6mn. Lower fuel cost led to an expansion in EBITDA margin: Total operating expenditure increased 3.6% Y-o-Y (at a relatively lower pace as compare to the top-line growth), mainly due to lower fuel cost (arising from lower international coal prices) and addition of hydro assets. As a percent of total operating income, power & fuel cost declined 7.5ppts. As a result, EBITDA increased by 22.3% Y-o-Y to Rs. 11,912.7mn, while margin expanded by over 4ppts to 45%. Sequentially, EBITDA increased by 19.3% with over 5.5ppts expansion in margin. Higher depreciation and interest charge coupled with higher tax incidence dragged the bottom-line: With the integration of hydro assets, depreciation and finance charge increased 34.5% and 58% Y-o-Y, respectively. This coupled with lower other income (-29.7% Y-o-Y) and higher tax incidence (36.1% in Q3 FY16 vs 26.5% Y-o-Y) led to a 15.7% Y-o-Y decline in PAT to Rs. 3,206.8mn. Accordingly, PAT margin contracted by 386bps Y-o-Y to 12.1%. Valuation: We believe that, with the revival in the economy, power deficit is expected to increase, assisting a support to the merchant power rates. JSWEL, with its presence in key power deficit region such as South India, is likely to benefit from it. Besides, this the company is also expecting a finalization of tariff for RWPL and Karcham Wangtoo power plants. Favorable order will be positive for JSWEL. Additionally, the acquisition of the hydro assets is likely to improve the salesmix and the profitability of the company. At CMP of Rs. 73.4, the company s share is trading at TTM P/E and P/BVPS multiple of 9.1x and 1.4x, respectively. The recent correction in the stock price is not justified given the positive outlook on merchant power rate and presence in the key power deficit market such as South India. Based on SOTP valuation methodology, we arrive at a target price of Rs per share, translating into an upside potential of 35.9%. Hence, we reiterate our rating on the stock. Q3 FY16 Snapshot: Particulars (Rs. mn) Q3 FY16 Q2 FY16 Q3 FY15 Q-o-Q (%) Y-o-Y (%) Net Sales 26, , , % 11.3% EBITDA 11, , , % 22.3% Adjusted PAT 3, , , % -15.7% EBITDA Margin (%) 45.0% 39.4% 40.9% 553 bps 405 bps Adjusted PAT Margin (%) 12.1% 13.5% 16.0% (140) bps (386) bps Rajnath Yadav Board line: ; Ext. 912 Rating Matrix CMP (Rs.) 73.8 Rating Relative Capital Market Strength Buy Target price (Rs.) 99.7 Target period 18 months Upside potential 35.1% 52 week H/L (Rs.) / 59.5 Face value (Rs.) 10 Category Sector Particulars Large Cap Electric Utilities Shareholding Pattern as on 30th Sept Sep-15 Jun-15 Mar-15 Dec-14 Promoters 75.0% 75.0% 75.0% 75.0% FIIs 8.8% 8.5% 7.2% 6.6% DIIs 5.5% 5.8% 6.3% 6.5% Non institutions 10.7% 10.8% 11.5% 11.9% Consolidated Financial Snapshot (Rs. bn) Projections FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E Revenue ,052 1,266 1,532 EBITDA PAT EBITDA (%) 21.1% 20.1% 22.0% 22.3% 22.1% 22.0% PAT (%) 19.1% 18.4% 19.5% 19.8% 19.5% 19.2% EPS BVPS RONW (%) 33.1% 32.0% 35.0% 33.7% 33.7% 34.0% P/E P / BVPS EV/EBIDTA JSW Energy Ltd. Sensex 1

2 Q3 FY16 Quarter Actual vs. Estimates: Particular (Rs. mn) Q3 FY16 Actual Q3 FY16 Estimates Variance (%) Reason / Comments Total Operating Income 26, , % Top-line came in-line with our estimates EBITDA 11, , % EBITDA came in-line with our estimates Adjusted PAT 3, , % Higher than expected depreciation and finance charge coupled with higher tax incidence led to a fall in PAT Q3 FY16 Quarter Performance: Particulars (Rs. mn) Q3 FY16 Q2 FY16 Q3 FY15 Q-o-Q (%) Y-o-Y (%) Total Operating Income 26, , , % 11.3% Total Operating Expenditure (14,578.6) (15,331.5) (14,066.8) -4.9% 3.6% EBITDA 11, , , % 22.3% Depreciation (2,650.4) (2,240.1) (1,971.1) 18.3% 34.5% EBIT 9, , , % 19.2% Interest Expenses (4,491.2) (3,511.4) (2,843.2) 27.9% 58.0% Other Income % -29.7% Exceptional Items 0.0 1, % - Profit Before Tax (PBT) 5, , , % -5.0% Tax Expenses (1,816.3) (1,537.2) (1,405.1) 18.2% 29.3% Adjusted PAT 3, , , % -15.7% Basic EPS (Rs.) % -15.5% Diluted EPS (Rs.) % -15.5% EBITDA Margin (%) 45.0% 39.4% 40.9% 553 bps 405 bps Adjusted PAT Margin (%) 12.1% 13.5% 16.0% (140) bps (386) bps 2

3 Consolidated Key Operating Metric: Particulars Q3 FY15 Q4 FY15 Q1 FY16 Q2 FY16 Q3 FY16 Q-o-Q (%) Y-o-Y (%) Average Deemed PLF (%) 65.3% 61.0% 56.8% 80.8% 73.8% (70) bps 85 bps Vijayanagar PLF (%) 100.0% 100.0% 81.0% 81.0% 96.0% 150 bps (40) bps Ratnagiri PLF (%) 84.0% 57.0% 66.0% 84.0% 90.0% 60 bps 60 bps Barmer PLF (%) 77.0% 87.0% 80.0% 86.0% 85.0% (10) bps 80 bps Himachal Pradesh (%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 72.0% 24.0% (480) bps 240 bps Net Generation (mn units) 5, , , , , % 11.2% Vijayanagar 1, , , , , % -4.6% Ratnagiri 2, , , , , % -3.4% Barmer 1, , , , , % 9.1% Himachal Pradesh % - Sales Mix (%) 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% - - Long Term PPAs 53.5% 53.9% 55.6% 55.4% 50.8% (463) bps (269) bps Merchant Sales 46.5% 46.1% 44.4% 44.6% 49.2% 463 bps 269 bps Average Realization (Rs. Per Unit) % -3.8% Fuel Cost per Unit (Rs.) % -10.9% Other Operational Expenses per Unit (Rs.) % 88.2% Valuation: We believe that, with the revival in the economy, power deficit is expected to increase, assisting a support to the merchant power rates. JSWEL, with its presence in key power deficit region such as South India, is likely to benefit from it. Besides, this the company is also expecting a finalization of tariff for RWPL and Karcham Wangtoo power plants. Favorable order will be positive for JSWEL. Additionally, the acquisition of the hydro assets is likely to improve the sales-mix and the profitability of the company. At CMP of Rs. 73.4, the company s share is trading at TTM P/E and P/BVPS multiple of 9.1x and 1.4x, respectively. The recent correction in the stock price is not justified given the positive outlook on merchant power rate and presence in the key power deficit market such as South India. Based on SOTP valuation methodology, we arrive at a target price of Rs per share, translating into an upside potential of 35.9%. Hence, we reiterate our rating on the stock. SOTP Valuation Methodology Value (Rs. mn) Value per Share (Rs.) Vijayanagar and Ratnagiri DCF 59, Raj West Power Ltd. DCF 44, Himachal Baspa Power Co. Ltd. DCF 27, Barmer Lignite Mining Co. Ltd. 1 x Investment 9, JSW Power Trading Co. Ltd. 1 x Investment Value 1, JSW Energy (Kutehr) Ltd. 1 x Investment 2, Toshiba JSW Power Systems Pvt. Ltd. 1 x Investment 1, Cas & Cash Equivalent Actuals 17, Total Value

4 Financial Statements: Consolidated Profit and Loss Statement Particulars (Rs. mn) FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E Total Operating Income 61, , , , , ,282.6 Fuel Cost (36,541.1) (42,959.2) (41,373.5) (46,811.3) (42,932.5) (46,777.6) Purchase of Power (3,582.6) (11,482.1) (8,409.5) (2,247.7) (6,090.8) (4,000.0) Employee Benefits Expense (904.7) (1,267.6) (1,334.2) (1,469.2) (1,732.0) (1,900.4) Increase / Decrease in Banked Energy / Inventory ,883.5 (1,920.6) Other Expenses (5,708.9) (5,727.8) (5,306.5) (5,118.7) (6,826.4) (7,716.9) EBITDA 14, , , , , ,887.7 Depreciation and Amortization Expense (5,033.5) (6,615.3) (8,099.5) (7,897.6) (9,087.5) (11,172.3) EBIT 9, , , , , ,715.3 Finance Costs (7,172.4) (9,627.9) (12,059.4) (11,374.6) (14,181.4) (19,006.1) Other Income 1, , , , , ,735.5 Exceptional Items (Net) (1,612.7) (1,965.9) (3,776.9) (342.3) 1, PBT 2, , , , , ,444.7 Tax Expenses (419.2) (2,733.1) (2,836.0) (5,149.9) (6,445.9) (9,095.7) Adjusted PAT 3, , , , , ,429.0 Consolidated Balance Sheet Particulars (Rs. mn) FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E Share Capital 16, , , , , ,400.5 Reserves and Surplus 40, , , , , ,564.9 Minority Interest Long Term Borrowings 87, , , , , ,954.2 Deferred Tax Liabilities 1, , , , , ,051.9 Other Long Term Liabilities Long Term Provisions Short Term Borrowings 5, , , , , Trade Payables 25, , , , , ,064.8 Other Current Liabilities 14, , , , , ,542.1 Short Term Provisions 1, , , , , ,793.9 Total Liabilities 192, , , , , ,863.5 Fixed Assets 146, , , , , ,204.1 Goodwill on Consolidation Non Current Investments 2, , , , , ,404.0 Long Term Loans and Advances 13, , , , , ,345.7 Other Non Current Assets , , ,334.1 Current Investments 2, , , , , ,311.6 Inventories 7, , , , , ,285.5 Trade Receivables 10, , , , , ,661.4 Cash and Bank Balances 6, , , , , ,857.1 Short Term Loans and Advances 1, , , , , ,493.0 Other Current Assets 1, , , , ,870.5 Total Assets 192, , , , , ,

5 Financial Statement (Contd ) Consolidated Cash Flow Statement Particulars FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E Cash Flow From Operations Activities 20, , , , , ,213.2 Cash Flow from Investing Activities (18,201.7) (9,441.1) (3,625.1) (4,207.6) (87,562.4) (18,204.2) Cash Flow from Financing Activities (5,531.8) (6,844.1) (18,590.5) (23,272.2) 51,480.4 (33,047.1) Net Cash Flow (3,446.7) , , Opening Balance of Cash & Cash Balance 12, , , , , ,895.1 Closing Balance of Cash & Cash Balance 8, , , , , ,857.1 Consolidated Financial Ratio FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E Profitability & Return Ratios EBITDA Margin (%) 23.8% 31.3% 37.3% 38.6% 42.2% 49.4% PAT Margin (%) 5.4% 12.3% 13.0% 14.8% 14.1% 18.0% RoNW (%) 5.8% 17.6% 17.1% 18.3% 15.9% 20.1% RoCE (%) 6.3% 13.4% 15.3% 17.6% 13.6% 19.1% Working Capital & Liquidity Ratios Current Ratio (X) Quick Ratio (X) Interest Coverage Ratio Net Debt to EBITDA Ratio Turnover & Leverage Ratios Fixed Asset Turnover (X) Total Asset Turnover (X) Debt Equity Ratio (X) Dividend Pay Out Ratio Valuation Ratios DPS (Rs.) BVPS (Rs.) EPS (Rs. Cr) P / E (X) P / BVPS (X) EV / Sales (X) EV / EBITDA (X)

6 Choice s Rating Rationale The price target for a large cap stock represents the value the analyst expects the stock to reach over next 12 months. For a stock to be classified as Outperform, the expected return must exceed the local risk free return by at least 5% over the next 12 months. For a stock to be classified as Underperform, the stock return must be below the local risk free return by at least 5% over the next 12 months. Stocks between these bands are classified as Neutral. JSW Energy Ltd. Date Recommendation CMP (Rs.) Target Price (Rs.) 15-Jan Rating Legend Rating Upside Absolute Return >15% Accumulate Absolute Return Between 10-15% Hold Absolute Return Between 0-10% Reduce Absolute Return 0 To Negative 10% Sell Absolute Return > Negative 10% Institutional Equity Team Name Designation id Contact No. Ajay Kejriwal President Sumeet Bagadia Head of Research Amit Singh VP - Institutional Sales Devendra Gaikwad Sr. Manager - Institutional Sales Rajnath Yadav Research Analyst Satish Kumar Research Analyst Vishal More Research Analyst Kunal Parmar Research Associate Amit Pathania Research Associate es Vikas Chaudhari Research Associate Kapil Shah Research Associate Rohan Patil Research Associate Trirashmi Ghoderao Research Advisor Neeraj Yadav Research Advisor Disclaimer This is solely for information of clients of Choice Broking and does not construe to be an investment advice. It is also not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase and sale of any financial instruments. Any action taken by you on the basis of the information contained herein is your responsibility alone and Choice Broking its subsidiaries or its employees or associates will not be liable in any manner for the consequences of such action taken by you. We have exercised due diligence in checking the correctness and authenticity of the information contained in this recommendation, but Choice Broking or any of its subsidiaries or associates or employees shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this recommendation or any action taken on basis of this information. This report is based on the fundamental analysis with a view to forecast future price. The Research analysts for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities, and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. Choice Broking has based this document on information obtained from sources it believes to be reliable but which it has not independently verified; Choice Broking makes no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness. The opinions contained within the report are based upon publicly available information at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. The information and any disclosures provided herein are in summary form and have been prepared for informational purposes. The recommendations and suggested price levels are intended purely for stock market investment purposes. The recommendations are valid for the day of the report and will remain valid till the target period. The information and any disclosures provided herein may be considered confidential. Any use, distribution, modification, copying, forwarding or disclosure by any person is strictly prohibited. The information and any disclosures provided herein do not constitute a solicitation or offer to purchase or sell any security or other financial product or instrument. The current performance may be unaudited. Past performance does not guarantee future returns. There can be no assurance that investments will achieve any targeted rates of return, and there is no guarantee against the loss of your entire investment. POTENTIAL CONFLICT OF INTEREST DISCLOSURE (as on date of report) Disclosure of interest statement Analyst interest of the stock /Instrument(s): - No. Firm interest of the stock / Instrument (s): - No Choice Equity Broking Pvt. Ltd. Choice House, Shree Shakambhari Corporate Park, Plt No: , J.B. Nagar, Andheri (East), Mumbai

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